Look at Asia's best-performing currencies, and this dilemma, facing investors everywhere, is writ large.

這個讓世界各地的投資者無解的難題從幾個表現較佳的亞洲貨幣就可看出端倪

The top five gainers against the dollar this year include high yielders, safe havens, global growth plays and rate-cut bets.

看看今年對美元表現排名前五的亞洲，他們的貨幣性質包含高收益貨幣、避風港貨幣、全球經濟增長和降息賭注

Amid that apparent confusion in themes one conclusion can be drawn:

從這些混雜的性質中我們可以得出一個結論

This rally is about the dollar and the respite granted by still-easy monetary policy in the U.S., not real optimism.

這次反彈的關鍵其實是美元，且美國依然寬鬆的貨幣政策帶來了喘息的空間。但這並不代表情況是樂觀的

The high yielding growth stories in there are the Malaysian ringgit and the Indonesia's rupiah.

高收益貨幣中包含馬來西亞令吉和印尼盾

Indonesia for one has a genuinely strong story of its own, with infrastructure spending and falling interest rates to support growth.

強勢的印尼盾是由其國內的基礎建設花費和不斷下降的利率所促成的

Singapore too is often a reflection of the regional and global outlook.

另一方面，新加坡也反映了區域性和全球性的前景

That might support the idea of a confident growth rally,

這兩個例子似乎可以支持「信心帶來反彈」的這一個說法

if it weren't for the fact that most economists are, if anything, moderating their forecasts for economic growth this year.

要不是大部分的經濟學家都在持續觀察他們對今年全球經濟的預測，大家可能會相信這樣的說法

But it's the ringgit's outsized gains, up 10.9%, that really undermine the idea of a strong local growth driver.

其實，印尼盾高達10.9%的豐厚收益其實並不代表地方成長會驅動經濟

Few economists are positive on its outlook and, rocked by the scandal surrounding the 1MDB state investment fund,

經濟學家們大多不看好印尼的前景。而近日1MDB(一馬發展有限公司)的政府投資基金醜聞

Kuala Lumpur's politics look increasingly troubled.

則顯示出吉隆坡當地的政治也日漸混亂

It appears to be the rebound in oil that's driven the rally in the ringgit.

其實，是原油價格的反彈驅動了印尼盾的上漲

Australia supports this too.

而澳洲的情況也一樣

Its currency, up 4.9%, has been helped by the rebound in iron ore and other commodities.

澳洲元上漲了4.9%，靠的是鐵礦和其他商品價格的反彈

But soggy retail data on Monday left alive rate-cut forecasts.

但是星期一的零售銷售數據卻相當不樂觀，因此依然有降息的可能

In other words, it isn't a growth story either.

換言之，這並不是真正的經濟成長

The Japanese yen is perhaps the strongest indicator that this rally is driven by factors other than confidence.

日圓則直接顯示出這次反彈其實並不是信心造就的

It's 8% higher against the dollar this year, and remains stubbornly strong as its safe haven status

今年，日圓兌美元成長了8%，並且頑固地保持強勢

keeps outweighing the negative interest rates that really should've spurred outflows and produce currency weakness.

而其「避風港貨幣」的性質則使日本的負利率政策失靈，無法達成原本刺激流量和弱化日圓的目標

There is an irony in the fact that one of the reasons behind the Federal Reserve's moderating of its U.S. rate-rise plans last month

美國聯邦儲備系統上月決定要緩和國內升息的計畫。他們的理由其實相當諷刺。

was its fear that the rest of the world can't bear far tighter U.S. policy.

他們害怕世界各國會無法接受美國更加緊縮的貨幣政策

And on hearing that, it appears that investors then duly went and bought the rest of the world.

而聽到了這個理由，投資者自然就選擇投資其他國家

So either markets think that the Fed is overly fearful about the global economy, or, for want of a better idea,

這可能有兩種解釋。一方面，市場可能認為聯邦政府對於全球經濟的態度過於保守。而另一方面，可能是因為沒有更好的辦法

they're happy to stick with the sort of Fed-to-the-rescue theme that's worked so well in investment around the world in recent years.

市場決定採他們一慣的作法，相信聯邦政府一定會在危急時出手相助。這在過去幾年都是可行的

Neither, however, suggests the kind of confidence the sustained rallies are made of.

然而，不管哪種解釋都和「信心驅動反彈」的說法相悖