It's tempting to suggest that we can ignore the year so far

要我們「忽略今年稍早的市場變化」，這個想法非常誘人

as virtually all the most dramatic transit that we saw in the first six weeks or so of the year, have now completed reversing.

因為我們在今年前六周左右所見的劇烈變化現在都已經翻轉了

Even the S&P 500 itself was briefly up for the year at one point today.

就連標準普爾500指數(S&P500) 在今天也短暫的升值了

It's tempting, but it's unbalanced, I still think we should resist that temptation.

不過，雖然這個想法很誘人，要知道這個翻轉是不平衡的。所以我依然認為我們應該拒絕這個想法

We start by taking a look at the dollar,

我們先從美元來看

this is the trade-weighted index against a basket of other significant currencies.

這是美元和其他重要貨幣的貿易加權匯率指數

A very sharp move down in the last two days following the very dovish statement we got from the Federal Reserve.

我們可以看見過去兩天有非常明顯的向下走勢，這是受到美國聯邦儲備系統之前非常保守的聲明影響

Put in perspective you can see we're still very much stronger for the dollar than we were two years ago

放在比較圖上，你可以知道現在的美元和兩年前相比仍然是強勢的

it's still not necessarily clear that the trend is been emphatically reversed

現階段我們還不能肯定向上的走勢已被扭轉

but a distinct, clear relief of the pressure,

但是這顯然紓解了許多人的壓力

a weak dollar makes life a lot easier for a lot of people, particularly in the emerging markets,

美元走弱會讓很多人的生活都好過些，尤其對於新興市場更是如此

reduces some of what's known as the tail risk, the risk of a significant crisis.

這樣的趨勢降低了尾端風險，也就是可能會發生重大危機的風險

Now if we take a look at WTI Crude,

現在讓我們看看原油價格

you can see again, if we look at it as a long term perspective,

從長期來看，我們一樣可以發現類似的情況

perhaps you shouldn't get too carried away by what's happened so far this year.

所以也許你不該因為今年所發生的事而太忘形

But we are up for the year, we're back above 40 dollars per barrel,

但單從今年來看，我們已經回升到一桶40美元的價格

there is still a long way to go before this very dramatic, downward trend could be emphatically reversed.

不過距離把這個劇烈的向下走勢完全逆轉仍然還有一大段路

But plainly there are reasons why we have seen the recovery of the last few weeks.

至於為何過去幾周有復甦的現象，有幾個原因

Now if I'd shown you a surprise data for how U.S. economic data have come in,

如果我把美國方面驚人的經濟數據給你們看的話

that would've shown you a V shape,

你們會清楚的看見它呈現V型

so would volatility, so would inflation breakevens.

波動性和盈虧平衡通脹率也是一樣

there's a persistent pattern that we have seen a V shape as people suffered a very significant recessional deflationary scare

我們可以看見一貫的V型發展，這是因為二月的第二周左右

in as to about the second week of February and then steadily recovered from it.

人們經歷了一場嚴重的通貨緊縮，而後開始穩定的復甦

Does that mean that all is well?

這是否代表一切都很好呢?

No, there are still some significant signs that all is not totally as it should be.

事實上不是，目前仍然有許多徵兆顯示現在並不是一切安好

Let's take a look at the S&P 500 and compare it to the S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrat Index.

來看看標準普爾500指數和標準普爾股利貴族500指數的比較

This is an index of companies which are particularly reliable at paying out their dividends

標準普爾股利貴族500指數涵蓋的是有會付出股利的良好信用的公司

and generally something that begins to appeal to you when you're nervous,

而這項特質在你對市場表現感到緊張時，會開始顯得非常吸引人

when you want to be sure that you actually get your money,

因為你希望確保自己能真的拿到錢

It's a "show me the money" index.

這基本上就是一個「我要看到錢」的指數

And as you can see, it has radically outperformed over the last few months.

如你所見，它在過去幾個月的表現比標準普爾500指數好很多

When people are that concerned to see money upfront, it's generally a sign that they still lack confidence.

當人們會這麼急著要看到錢的時候，通常就代表他們還是缺乏信心

Bear in mind, it's still obvious that the S&P remains well below its peak from last May.

要記得，標準普爾500指數和它在五月時的頂峰相比依然遜色許多

And I don't think we can discount all that just happened over the last twelve weeks.

而我也不認為我們應該看輕過去十二週所發生的事情

Plainly, there was a very significant scare, that scare has been reversed.

的確，那時的狀況讓人十分吃驚，而現在情況翻轉了

We are still unfortunately left with rather a worrying situation where there is still a lack of confidence.

但我們仍很不幸地處在一個憂慮的氛圍裡，人們也依然缺乏信心