Name: 【TED-Ed】科技發展變幻莫測？小說早就寫好劇情了 (How science fiction can help predict the future - Roey Tzezana)
Uploaded: 2021-09-17T21:01:30.000Z
Duration: 5 min 22 s
Description: 不知道有沒有人和小編一樣是科幻迷呢？今天的影片告訴我們科幻小說除了娛樂功能以外還有肩負預測未來的重責大任呢！究竟它們是如何做到的呢？不管你喜歡還是不喜歡科幻的題材，都讓我們一起看影片找出答案吧！ 1millennium 0:13 millennium 是一個計算時間的單位，意思是「一千年」。 The Akkadians...

程度副詞

Would you like to know what's in our future? What's going to happen tomorrow, next year, or even a millennium from now? Well, you're not alone.

想知道我們的未來會是什麼樣子嗎？明天會有什麼事情發生？ 明年呢？甚至一千年後呢？其實，不只你想知道答案。

Everyone from governments to militaries to industry leaders do, as well, and they all employ people called futurists who attempt to forecast the future; some are able to do this with surprising accuracy.

這是政府每個人、軍方、 還有企業領導人都想知道的答案，他們都雇用了那些叫做「未來主義者」的人嘗試預測未來，有些人的預測甚至驚人的準確。

In the middle of the 20th century, a think tank known as the RAND Corporation consulted dozens of scientists and futurists who together forecast many of the technologies we take for granted today, including artificial organs, the use of birth control pills, and libraries able to look up research material for the reader.

在二十世紀中，有一個蘭德公司的智囊團，諮詢了很多科學家及未來主義者， 他們一起預測很多現今我們認為理所當然的技術，包含人工器官、 避孕藥的使用、及圖書館提供讀者檢索研究資料的服務。

One way futurists arrive at their predictions is by analyzing movements and trends in society, and charting the paths they are likely to follow into the future with varying degrees of probability.

未來主義者達到他們預測的一種方法是，分析社會的變遷與趨勢， 然後以它們不同程度的可能性詳細記錄在未來可能跟從的路徑。

Their work informs the decisions of policymakers and world leaders, enabling them to weigh options for the future that otherwise could not have been imagined in such depth or detail.

他們的工作告訴了決策者及世界領袖們要做的決定，使他們能夠為未來的選擇做衡量， 不然他們無法想像到一定的深度與細節。

Of course, there are obvious limits to how certain anyone can be about the future. There are always unimaginable discoveries that arise which would make no sense to anyone in the present.

任何人對於未來的把握度當然會有明顯的限制，世上總會出現讓人無法想像的發現，現在的我們可能認為這些發現不合理。

Imagine, for example, transporting a physicist from the middle of the 19th century into the 21st. You explain to him that a strange material exists, Uranium 235, that of its own accord can produce enough energy to power an entire city or destroy it in one fell swoop.

想像一下，舉個例子，將一個物理學家從十九世紀中運送到二十一世紀，你向他解釋有一個奇怪的物質存在著，叫做「鈾 235」，它會自動產生足夠供應整座城市的能源，甚至一下子就能把它摧毀。

"How can such energy come from nowhere?" he would demand to know. "That's not science, that's magic." And for all intents and purposes, he would be right.

而他會要求知道 「如此強大的能量為何會無中生有？」「這不是科學，這是魔法。」實際上，他可能是對的。

His 19th century grasp of science includes no knowledge of radioactivity or nuclear physics.

他對於十九世紀對科學的理解並不包含放射性或核能物理學的知識。

In his day, no forecast of the future could have predicted X-rays, or the atom bomb, let alone the theory of relativity or quantum mechanics.

在他的年代，沒有人能預測未來能有 X 光或是原子彈， 更不用說會有相對論或量子力學。

As Arthur C. Clarke has said, "Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic."

科幻小說家亞瑟‧克拉克曾說過：「任何夠先進的技術都跟魔術沒什麼兩樣。」

How can we prepare, then, for a future that will be as magical to us as our present would appear to someone from the 19th century?

那麼，我們該如何為那看似魔法世界的未來做準備呢？就像來自十九世紀的人看待現今的世界。

We may think our modern technology and advanced data analysis techniques might allow us to predict the future with much more accuracy than our 19th century counterpart, and rightly so.

我們可能會覺得現代科技與先進的數據分析技術能讓我們能夠更準確的預測未來，比起十九世紀那時候來說的話， 會是這樣沒錯。

However, it's also true that our technological progress has brought with it new increasingly complex and unpredictable challenges.

然而，科技的進步確實也伴隨著前所未見的挑戰，越來越複雜且無法預料。

The stakes for future generations to be able to imagine the unimaginable are higher than ever before. So the question remains: how do we do that?

要去想像難以想像的事物對未來世代來說所含的風險比以前高的許多，所以現在的問題是：我們要如何做到？

One promising answer has actually been with us since the 19th century and the Industrial Revolution that laid the foundation for our modern world.

一個很有展望的答案其實一直存在著， 自從十九世紀以及那奠定現代世界基礎的工業革命。

During this time of explosive development and invention, a new form of literature, science fiction, also emerged.

這段期間，大量的開發與發明迅速激增，因而產生了一種新的文學形式──科幻小說。

Inspired by the innovations of the day, Jules Verne, H.G. Wells, and other prolific thinkers explored fantastic scenarios, depicting new frontiers of human endeavor.

當時的創新啟發了凡爾納、威爾斯 （現代科幻小說的開山宗師）和其他豐富思想家去探究許多幻想的情境， 描繪出人類探索的新邊界。

And throughout the 20th century and into the 21st, storytellers have continued to share their visions of the future and correctly predicted many aspects of the world we inhabit decades later.

從一開始的二十世紀進入到二十一世紀，故事作家們一直分享著他們對未來的看法，並正確的預測到許多見解，關於幾十年後我們所居的世界。

In "Brave New World," Aldous Huxley foretold the use of antidepressants in 1932, long before such medication became popular; in 1953, Ray Bradbury's "Fahrenheit 451," forecast earbuds, "thimble radios," in his words, and in "2001: A Space Odyssey," Arthur C. Clarke described a portable, flat-screen news pad in 1968.

在《美麗新世界》這本書中，作者奧爾德斯‧赫胥黎在 1932年預言了抗憂鬱劑的使用， 那時，還要好長一段時間才被廣為人知；1953 年，在雷‧布萊伯利的書 《華氏451度》預言了耳機，他在書中寫到「海貝耳機」，而在《2001：太空漫遊》中，亞瑟‧克拉克在 1968年描述了一個可攜式的電子書平板。

In works that often combine entertainment and social commentary, we are invited to suspend our disbelief and consider the consequences of radical shifts in familiar and deeply engrained institutions.

常結合娛樂與社會評論的作品鼓勵我們停止懷疑，並認真去想已根深蒂固而熟知的傳統風俗若有了極端的變化，後果會是什麼？

In this sense, the best science fiction fulfils the words of philosopher Michel Foucault, "I'm no prophet. My job is making windows where there were once walls."

這麼說來，最佳的科幻小說應證了哲學家米歇爾‧福柯的話：「我不是預言家，我的工作是為曾經是牆的地方製作窗戶。」

Free from the constraints of the present and our assumptions of what's impossible, science fiction serves as a useful tool for thinking outside of the box.

擺脫現在的束縛及我們對不可能的事所做的假定，科幻小說是個很有用的工具， 它讓我們跳脫框架。

Many futurists recognize this, and some are beginning to employ science fictions writers in their teams.

很多未來主義者了解了這一點，有些甚至雇用了科幻小說家加入他們的團隊。

Just recently, a project called iKnow proposed scenarios that look much like science fiction stories.

直到最近，有一個計畫叫做 iKnow，提出了許多科幻小說中會出現的情境。

They include the discovery of an alien civilization, development of a way for humans and animals to communicate flawlessly, and radical life extension.

內容包含了外星文明的發現、發展出一個能讓人類與動物溝通無礙的方式、 以及延續生命的極致。

So, what does the future hold? Of course, we can't know for certain, but science fiction shows us many possibilities.

所以，未來到底有什麼？當然，我們沒辦法確定，但科幻小說透露出了很多可能性。

Ultimately, it is our responsibility to determine which we will work towards making a reality.

終究，我們的責任是去決定何種可能性是我們該努力實現的。