Today's topic is commodities.

今天要談的是原物料價格。

And I'm here with Neil Gregson, who's the manager of JPMorgan's natural resources fund.

我們邀請到摩根大通的天然資源基金總經理 Neil Gregson 來分享他的看法。

It's been a dismal time for commodities over the past twelve months.

過去一年來原物料價格經歷一番周折，

2015, was one of the worst years on record for commodity performance.

2015年的原物料價格表現可說是最慘澹的一次。

But we've seen a great uptick this year, and I'm here to discuss the reasons why with Neil.

但今年價格有回升的情勢。我和尼爾將探討其中的原因。

Neil, we're out of the super cycle.

Neil，看來現在原物料價格已經脫離超級漲勢週期了。

What was one of the moment are we at for the commodities outlook would you say at the moment?

您認為現在原物料價格的情形如何？

I think we're getting through the worst, I think we're through the denial phase now.

我認為我們已脫離險境，可以正視我們所處的經濟情況。

So you mentioned 2015 as being a bad year, well we've had an unprecedented five years down in the mining sector.

您剛剛提到2015景氣不佳，確實，礦業股在經歷了超級漲勢週期和全球金融危機之後，

Albeit after a super cycle, interrupted briefly by the global financial crisis.

已經持續低迷了五年。

But we're seeing all the behavior that we've seen in past down cycles that is fairly typical at the bottom.

但以它們仍維持在低迷時期應有的水準，

So I'm not surprised to see an increased interest in the sector over recent months.

因此這幾個月投資人對礦業股躍躍欲試的情形倒也理所當然。

So a good uptake.

所以仍有不少的買主。

Now let's look at some of the reasons why we saw the super cycle in the first place,

讓我們先來看超級漲勢週期的成因，

and see what some of the data is telling us about where the industry is.

和工業經營情況的數據圖。

The first thing to talk about, if we're going to look at the first chart is capex,

要先探討成因，就要先看資本支出，

capital expenditure by mining companies over the period.

也就是礦業公司在這段期間內的資本支出。

We saw a massive rise, and now we've seen a steep fall off.

先是大幅上漲，接者又驟然下跌。

What's that telling us about where we're gonna be, Neil?

這代表著什麼呢？

It's telling us that there's going to be less supply in the future.

這顯示出接下來礦供應量將會下降。

So just as that chart shows the reaction to high prices and more and more supply,

正如同這張圖表顯示供給量會隨價格水漲船高，

the industry reacting to lower prices, which means less supply in the future,

供給量也會隨著價格下跌而下降。

so the markets will balance again.

市場才能回到供需平衡。

They always have to balance.

而這種平衡是必須的。

Yeah, to a large extent it's been a supply story, hasn't it?

所以綜觀而言，這一切都和供給脫不了關係吧？

And I think we need to look at the next chart to see where the supply story is heading forward 2016.

而且我們得看這張2016年供給量的走勢圖，才能更了解未來的走向。

This is a chart that shows small rises, very small rises for a few commodities.

圖表顯示一些原物料小幅上漲的情形。

But generally, supply growth trending downwards.

但大體上，供給量的成長速率是減緩的。

So we're gonna see restricted supply this year, particularly for some of the base metals.

所以今年的原物料供給量有限，尤其是卑金屬的數量。

Is that gonna be enough really to change the outlook fundamentally here?

這樣的話會大幅影響原物料供需的走勢嗎？

Well, I think it will be even with the modest uptake in demand.

我想這樣的情況會和適量的需求達到平衡．

What we're seeing is many of these commodities that were deep into the cost curves.

現在這些原物料成本比重偏高，

So lots of mines are losing money.

所以許多礦業其實都在做賠本生意。

Some mines are getting old and closing, such as Century Zinc,

有些老舊礦區已面臨關閉的窘境，像是 Century Zinc，

one of the world's biggest zinc mines is now closed.

這間全球最大的鋅礦公司已經步入歷史。

And other areas like in copper and zinc,

其他開採銅、鋅礦產的公司，

we've had lots of announcements from companies like Glencore about cutting production.

像是 Glencore 就打算要降低生產量。

And in Iron ore, the high cost Chinese production is also falling.

在鐵礦開採方面，中國高成本的生產模式也因此受挫。

So the industry reacting, industries will fall and this perception of this bat against commodities forever

但這種礦業生產萎靡不振的情形和反對原物料價格的聲浪，

will start to change as the markets balance out.

將會在市場達到平衡後有所平息。

So you only need a modest improvement in demand to help prices move upwards.

其實只要需求小幅上升，就能讓價格提高。

So the next obvious question then is, are we gonna see that modest increase in demand?

想當然爾，接下來的問題就是，需求會有上升的一天嗎？

What's your forecast for where we're going there?

您預測情勢將會如何呢？

Well, I think we are seeing reasonable demand.

我認為會有適量的需求出現。

Obviously China has been very very weak for a number of years.

明顯地，中國這幾年來一直呈現極度低迷的情勢。

But that's pretty much a consensus trade.

但這是共識交易的結果。

So there were still some infrastructures bending clearly consumptions okay,

在中國，部分的基礎設施降低了消費的意願，

you know, US seems to be performing okay as well.

而美國景氣仍維持的不錯。

So we are seeing modest improvements in demand, but nothing stellar.

因此需求將小幅的成長，而不會呈現一飛沖天的景象。

But again with the supply cuts that we've seen and the announcements that we've seen about future supply cuts,

但現在和未來供應量下降的情勢，

that's gonna help a lot.

將會助於需求的上升。

So I think we are through the worst.

因此，我認為最壞的已經過去了。

Through the worst, Neil Gregson, thank you very much for joining us this morning.

沒錯，最壞的已經過去了。非常感謝 Neil Gregson 今早的參與。

Thank you.

謝謝您。