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  • Welcome to FT Markets.

    歡迎收看金融時報。

  • Today's topic is commodities.

    今天要談的是原物料價格。

  • And I'm here with Neil Gregson, who's the manager of JPMorgan's natural resources fund.

    我們邀請到摩根大通的天然資源基金總經理 Neil Gregson 來分享他的看法。

  • It's been a dismal time for commodities over the past twelve months.

    過去一年來原物料價格經歷一番周折,

  • 2015, was one of the worst years on record for commodity performance.

    2015年的原物料價格表現可說是最慘澹的一次。

  • But we've seen a great uptick this year, and I'm here to discuss the reasons why with Neil.

    但今年價格有回升的情勢。我和尼爾將探討其中的原因。

  • Neil, we're out of the super cycle.

    Neil,看來現在原物料價格已經脫離超級漲勢週期了。

  • What was one of the moment are we at for the commodities outlook would you say at the moment?

    您認為現在原物料價格的情形如何?

  • I think we're getting through the worst, I think we're through the denial phase now.

    我認為我們已脫離險境,可以正視我們所處的經濟情況。

  • So you mentioned 2015 as being a bad year, well we've had an unprecedented five years down in the mining sector.

    您剛剛提到2015景氣不佳,確實,礦業股在經歷了超級漲勢週期和全球金融危機之後,

  • Albeit after a super cycle, interrupted briefly by the global financial crisis.

    已經持續低迷了五年。

  • But we're seeing all the behavior that we've seen in past down cycles that is fairly typical at the bottom.

    但以它們仍維持在低迷時期應有的水準,

  • So I'm not surprised to see an increased interest in the sector over recent months.

    因此這幾個月投資人對礦業股躍躍欲試的情形倒也理所當然。

  • So a good uptake.

    所以仍有不少的買主。

  • Now let's look at some of the reasons why we saw the super cycle in the first place,

    讓我們先來看超級漲勢週期的成因,

  • and see what some of the data is telling us about where the industry is.

    和工業經營情況的數據圖。

  • The first thing to talk about, if we're going to look at the first chart is capex,

    要先探討成因,就要先看資本支出,

  • capital expenditure by mining companies over the period.

    也就是礦業公司在這段期間內的資本支出。

  • We saw a massive rise, and now we've seen a steep fall off.

    先是大幅上漲,接者又驟然下跌。

  • What's that telling us about where we're gonna be, Neil?

    這代表著什麼呢?

  • It's telling us that there's going to be less supply in the future.

    這顯示出接下來礦供應量將會下降。

  • So just as that chart shows the reaction to high prices and more and more supply,

    正如同這張圖表顯示供給量會隨價格水漲船高,

  • the industry reacting to lower prices, which means less supply in the future,

    供給量也會隨著價格下跌而下降。

  • so the markets will balance again.

    市場才能回到供需平衡。

  • They always have to balance.

    而這種平衡是必須的。

  • Yeah, to a large extent it's been a supply story, hasn't it?

    所以綜觀而言,這一切都和供給脫不了關係吧?

  • And I think we need to look at the next chart to see where the supply story is heading forward 2016.

    而且我們得看這張2016年供給量的走勢圖,才能更了解未來的走向。

  • This is a chart that shows small rises, very small rises for a few commodities.

    圖表顯示一些原物料小幅上漲的情形。

  • But generally, supply growth trending downwards.

    但大體上,供給量的成長速率是減緩的。

  • So we're gonna see restricted supply this year, particularly for some of the base metals.

    所以今年的原物料供給量有限,尤其是卑金屬的數量。

  • Is that gonna be enough really to change the outlook fundamentally here?

    這樣的話會大幅影響原物料供需的走勢嗎?

  • Well, I think it will be even with the modest uptake in demand.

    我想這樣的情況會和適量的需求達到平衡.

  • What we're seeing is many of these commodities that were deep into the cost curves.

    現在這些原物料成本比重偏高,

  • So lots of mines are losing money.

    所以許多礦業其實都在做賠本生意。

  • Some mines are getting old and closing, such as Century Zinc,

    有些老舊礦區已面臨關閉的窘境,像是 Century Zinc,

  • one of the world's biggest zinc mines is now closed.

    這間全球最大的鋅礦公司已經步入歷史。

  • And other areas like in copper and zinc,

    其他開採銅、鋅礦產的公司,

  • we've had lots of announcements from companies like Glencore about cutting production.

    像是 Glencore 就打算要降低生產量。

  • And in Iron ore, the high cost Chinese production is also falling.

    在鐵礦開採方面,中國高成本的生產模式也因此受挫。

  • So the industry reacting, industries will fall and this perception of this bat against commodities forever

    但這種礦業生產萎靡不振的情形和反對原物料價格的聲浪,

  • will start to change as the markets balance out.

    將會在市場達到平衡後有所平息。

  • So you only need a modest improvement in demand to help prices move upwards.

    其實只要需求小幅上升,就能讓價格提高。

  • So the next obvious question then is, are we gonna see that modest increase in demand?

    想當然爾,接下來的問題就是,需求會有上升的一天嗎?

  • What's your forecast for where we're going there?

    您預測情勢將會如何呢?

  • Well, I think we are seeing reasonable demand.

    我認為會有適量的需求出現。

  • Obviously China has been very very weak for a number of years.

    明顯地,中國這幾年來一直呈現極度低迷的情勢。

  • But that's pretty much a consensus trade.

    但這是共識交易的結果。

  • So there were still some infrastructures bending clearly consumptions okay,

    在中國,部分的基礎設施降低了消費的意願,

  • you know, US seems to be performing okay as well.

    而美國景氣仍維持的不錯。

  • So we are seeing modest improvements in demand, but nothing stellar.

    因此需求將小幅的成長,而不會呈現一飛沖天的景象。

  • But again with the supply cuts that we've seen and the announcements that we've seen about future supply cuts,

    但現在和未來供應量下降的情勢,

  • that's gonna help a lot.

    將會助於需求的上升。

  • So I think we are through the worst.

    因此,我認為最壞的已經過去了。

  • Through the worst, Neil Gregson, thank you very much for joining us this morning.

    沒錯,最壞的已經過去了。非常感謝 Neil Gregson 今早的參與。

  • Thank you.

    謝謝您。

Welcome to FT Markets.

歡迎收看金融時報。

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