Name: 日本人對外國投資的吸引力 (Japanese drawn to foreign investment | Short View)
Uploaded: 2021-01-14T05:59:49.000Z
Duration: 2 min 33 s

Shoppers at the M outlet of Kindshome DIY confronted at the door by glaring red sign asking how solid is your negative interest rates strategy?

逛街的人如果來到 KIndshome DIY 暢貨中心的門口，會看到一張醒目的紅色標誌寫著：「你的負利率策略有多穩定？」

情態副詞

Underneath it is a selection of attractively priced safes.

標誌底下是一整排價格吸引人的保險箱。

The display is not exactly a buzz with custom.

Negative interest rates, NIRP, has certainly thrown things off-kilter.

負利率政策，確實已經造成市場失衡的現象。

But for now, at least there's no mathematically compelling reason

但至少目前，還沒有任何數字上強烈的因素，

for ordinary Japanese to spend 25,000 yen on a metal box to keep their cash at home.

促使日本人花25000日圓買一臺金屬箱子守住現金。

The 0.001 percent rate, Japanese banks offered a normal deposit account remains minutely above zero.

在負0.1%的利率下，日本銀行一般存款帳戶的結餘勉強維持在零之上。

And the Bank of Japan's policy has been crafted to ring fence individuals.

而日本銀行的政策設計是保護個體資金安全為先。

The big unanswered question, most pertinently for the yen, was it reels around in search of a natural post-NIRP range against the US dollar.

關於日元，尚未解答的難題是，它是不是正在兜圈子，以等待在負利率政策後期出現對美元相抗衡的時機？

It's what those Japanese individuals are actually doing with their cash.

這是現在許多日本人處理手上現金的方式。

The enigma has deepened following the ministry of Finance's most recent weekly portfolio data.

財政部最近發布的組合數據資料讓謎團更加難解。

For the week ending on February 19th, a week that saw the NIRP coming into force

結束在2月19日的那一週，負利率政策開始實行

and spectacular Japanese net buying on foreign bonds and foreign stocks.

日本人開始熱烈搶購國外債券和股票，

The former was the largest readings since the date it became available in 2005.

債券的購買情況，是自2005年開放購買以來，記錄最高的一次。

And the latter represented a 500 percent increase, over the previous week.

而股票購買數在上週則大幅提升了500%

What will market can only nervously guess at?

Until March 8th; however, is the breakdown of that buying.

在3月8日以前，只能預測到瘋狂購買後的大崩潰。

The crucial answer to how much of the action was banks' pension funds

至於崩潰的程度取決於銀行的退休金

and the sort of investment products that Japanese individuals tend to favor.

The bank's purchases would tend to be currency hedged.

銀行採購的大多傾向匯率對沖。

While the pension funds and investment trusts would not.

但撫恤金和信託基金卻不是這麼一回事。

If the breakdown shows out the bias were banks', the yen may belly twitch from its 112 to 113 range against the dollar.

如果崩潰是因為銀行的緣故，那麼日圓可能仍然維持在1美元兌112到113的情況，

But if it emerges that the outflows came from trusts, boiled with money that s* refuses to sit in the safe,

但如果崩潰是因為信託基金和流動現金緣故，

the market may but heavily on weeks more of large, yen depressing unhedged outflows.

那麼市場將會在接下來幾週經歷日圓挫貶、非對沖的資金外流。