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  • Shoppers at the M outlet of Kindshome DIY confronted at the door by glaring red sign asking how solid is your negative interest rates strategy?

    逛街的人如果來到 KIndshome DIY 暢貨中心的門口,會看到一張醒目的紅色標誌寫著:「你的負利率策略有多穩定?」

  • Underneath it is a selection of attractively priced safes.

    標誌底下是一整排價格吸引人的保險箱。

  • The display is not exactly a buzz with custom.

    然而卻不見民眾搶購的情況。

  • Negative interest rates, NIRP, has certainly thrown things off-kilter.

    負利率政策,確實已經造成市場失衡的現象。

  • But for now, at least there's no mathematically compelling reason

    但至少目前,還沒有任何數字上強烈的因素,

  • for ordinary Japanese to spend 25,000 yen on a metal box to keep their cash at home.

    促使日本人花25000日圓買一臺金屬箱子守住現金。

  • The 0.001 percent rate, Japanese banks offered a normal deposit account remains minutely above zero.

    在負0.1%的利率下,日本銀行一般存款帳戶的結餘勉強維持在零之上。

  • And the Bank of Japan's policy has been crafted to ring fence individuals.

    而日本銀行的政策設計是保護個體資金安全為先。

  • The big unanswered question, most pertinently for the yen, was it reels around in search of a natural post-NIRP range against the US dollar.

    關於日元,尚未解答的難題是,它是不是正在兜圈子,以等待在負利率政策後期出現對美元相抗衡的時機?

  • It's what those Japanese individuals are actually doing with their cash.

    這是現在許多日本人處理手上現金的方式。

  • The enigma has deepened following the ministry of Finance's most recent weekly portfolio data.

    財政部最近發布的組合數據資料讓謎團更加難解。

  • For the week ending on February 19th, a week that saw the NIRP coming into force

    結束在2月19日的那一週,負利率政策開始實行

  • and spectacular Japanese net buying on foreign bonds and foreign stocks.

    日本人開始熱烈搶購國外債券和股票,

  • The former was the largest readings since the date it became available in 2005.

    債券的購買情況,是自2005年開放購買以來,記錄最高的一次。

  • And the latter represented a 500 percent increase, over the previous week.

    而股票購買數在上週則大幅提升了500%

  • What will market can only nervously guess at?

    市場會有什麼不安的猜測?

  • Until March 8th; however, is the breakdown of that buying.

    在3月8日以前,只能預測到瘋狂購買後的大崩潰。

  • The crucial answer to how much of the action was banks' pension funds

    至於崩潰的程度取決於銀行的退休金

  • and the sort of investment products that Japanese individuals tend to favor.

    和日本人偏好的投資產品。

  • The bank's purchases would tend to be currency hedged.

    銀行採購的大多傾向匯率對沖。

  • While the pension funds and investment trusts would not.

    但撫恤金和信託基金卻不是這麼一回事。

  • If the breakdown shows out the bias were banks', the yen may belly twitch from its 112 to 113 range against the dollar.

    如果崩潰是因為銀行的緣故,那麼日圓可能仍然維持在1美元兌112到113的情況,

  • But if it emerges that the outflows came from trusts, boiled with money that s* refuses to sit in the safe,

    但如果崩潰是因為信託基金和流動現金緣故,

  • the market may but heavily on weeks more of large, yen depressing unhedged outflows.

    那麼市場將會在接下來幾週經歷日圓挫貶、非對沖的資金外流。

Shoppers at the M outlet of Kindshome DIY confronted at the door by glaring red sign asking how solid is your negative interest rates strategy?

逛街的人如果來到 KIndshome DIY 暢貨中心的門口,會看到一張醒目的紅色標誌寫著:「你的負利率策略有多穩定?」

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