is an electronic cigarette.

一支電子煙

It's something that's,

這是在

since it was invented a year or two ago,

一兩年前被發明的

has given me untold happiness.

它帶給我難以言喻的快樂

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

A little bit of it, I think, is the nicotine,

其中的一小部分是尼古丁

but there's something much bigger than that.

但是有件事情卻比尼古丁帶來的傷害要來的重要得多了

Which is ever since, in the U.K., they banned smoking in public places,

自從他們在英國禁止於公共區域抽煙之後

I've never enjoyed a drinks party ever again.

我就再也沒有開心地參加過喝酒的聚會了

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

And the reason, I only worked out just the other day,

而我終於在某天理解了原因

which is when you go to a drinks party

當你去到一個喝酒的聚會

and you stand up and you hold a glass of red wine

你拿著一杯紅酒站著

and you talk endlessly to people,

然後你就一直不間斷地與人談話到聚會結束嗎

you don't actually want to spend all the time talking.

通常不會

It's really, really tiring.

那樣子真的很累人

Sometimes you just want to stand there silently,

有時候你就只想要靜靜的站在那

alone with your thoughts.

想你自己的事情

Sometimes you just want to stand in the corner and stare out of the window.

有時候你就只想要站在一個角落望著窗外

Now the problem is, when you can't smoke,

問題來了，當你不能在室內抽煙

if you stand and stare out of the window on your own,

如果你還獨自一人站在窗邊望著外面

you're an antisocial, friendless idiot.

你就好像是一個反社會、不友善的白痴

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

If you stand and stare out of the window on your own with a cigarette,

你若獨自站著，望向窗外，手中拿著一根煙

you're a fucking philosopher.

你就是一個該死的哲學家

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

(Applause)

（掌聲）

So the power of reframing things

所以，情境被重新詮釋的力量

cannot be overstated.

不可言喻

What we have is exactly the same thing, the same activity,

我們在這兩個情境中的主體都是做同一件事情、參加同一個活動

but one of them makes you feel great

但這一個小小的差異，造成你覺得其中一個感覺比較好

and the other one, with just a small change of posture,

而另一個比較差，而這也僅僅

makes you feel terrible.

只是細微改變其中一個姿勢而已

And I think one of the problems with classical economics

我想其中一個關於古典經濟學的問題

is it's absolutely preoccupied with reality.

當然絕對是專注在現實當中

And reality isn't a particularly good guide to human happiness.

而專注在現實上並不一定是一個讓人們得到快樂的好方向

Why, for example,

為什麼？舉例來說

are pensioners much happier

過著退休生活的人有比

than the young unemployed?

年輕卻失業的人快樂嗎？

Both of them, after all, are in exactly the same stage of life.

這兩者，畢竟，處在人生的相同階段中

You both have too much time on your hands and not much money.

都有很多的時間但沒有錢

But pensioners are reportedly very, very happy,

但是退休的人據報導是非常、非常快樂的

whereas the unemployed are extraordinarily unhappy and depressed.

然而那些年輕失業的人就非常地不開心且鬱悶

The reason, I think, is that the pensioners believe

我覺得原因是退休的人相信

they've chosen to be pensioners,

這是他們選擇要進入退休生活的

whereas the young unemployed feel it's been thrust upon them.

而年輕的失業者感覺他們是被逼迫的

In England the upper middle classes

英格蘭的中上階級

have actually solved this problem perfectly,

將這個問題已經完美地解決了

because they've re-branded unemployment.

因為，他們已經把失業重新包裝

If you're an upper-middle-class English person,

你若是一個中上階級的英國人

you call unemployment "a year off."

你會稱失業為：「休假一年」

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

And that's because having a son who's unemployed in Manchester

因為你若身在曼徹斯特且你的兒子失業

is really quite embarrassing,

這其實真的很令人感到困窘

but having a son who's unemployed in Thailand

但是若是在泰國

is really viewed as quite an accomplishment.

就真的被當做是一項了不起的成就

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

But actually the power to re-brand things -

但重新詮釋事情的力量其實是

to understand that actually our experiences, costs, things

去真實地了解我們的經驗、成本、與它們本質上

don't actually much depend on what they really are,

其實沒有太大關連的事情

but on how we view them -

但是我們如何看待之卻造成了很大的差別

I genuinely think can't be overstated.

這是我真的認為非常重要的一件事

There's an experiment I think Daniel Pink refers to

有個Daniel Pink做的實驗

where you put two dogs in a box

它將兩隻狗放進一個盒子中

and the box has an electric floor.

而盒子的地板有通電

Every now and then an electric shock is applied to the floor,

時不時會有電流通過地板

which pains the dogs.

會電擊到那兩隻狗

The only difference is one of the dogs has a small button in its half of the box.

唯一的差別是其中一隻狗在它那半邊的區域有顆小按鈕

And when it nuzzles the button, the electric shock stops.

而每當有電流通過時按下那個按鈕，電擊就會停止

The other dog doesn't have the button.

而另一隻狗並沒有那個按鈕

It's exposed to exactly the same level of pain as the dog in the first box,

它跟第一隻狗一樣要承受相同程度的痛楚

but it has no control over the circumstances.

但卻對環境掌控卻一點辦法都沒有

Generally the first dog can be relatively content.

一般而言第一隻狗會相對地感到滿足

The second dog lapses into complete depression.

而第二隻狗就陷入完全地憂鬱中

The circumstances of our lives may actually matter less to our happiness

我們的生活情境也許與我們感覺到我們對於生活的掌控感比起來

than the sense of control we feel over our lives.

真的對我們的快樂影響沒這麼大

It's an interesting question.

這是一個令人感到有趣的問題

We ask the question - the whole debate in the Western world

我們會問這樣的問題，整個西方世界的爭論

is about the level of taxation.

都是關於課稅的水準

But I think there's another debate to be asked,

但我覺得有另一個值得要問的問題

which is the level of control we have over our tax money.

我們對於我們所繳的稅的控制程度

That what costs us 10 pounds in one context can be a curse.

也許花我們10英鎊的某個名目是我們厭惡的

What costs us 10 pounds in a different context

而另一個也花我們10英鎊的名目

we may actually welcome.

我們也許真的樂觀其成

You know, pay 20,000 pounds in tax toward health

付兩萬英鎊的稅給健康相關法案

and you're merely feeling a mug.

你可能只感到被搶劫

Pay 20,000 pounds to endow a hospital ward

但是付兩萬英鎊的錢建設醫院病房

and you're called a philanthropist.

你就會被稱為慈善家

I'm probably in the wrong country to talk about willingness to pay tax.

我很可能在一個錯的國家裡頭談論繳稅的意願這個議題

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

So I'll give you one in return. How you frame things really matters.

所以我會給你另一個關於你怎麼看事情才是真的重要的

Do you call it the bailout of Greece

你會說那是希臘紓困案

or the bailout of a load of stupid banks which lent to Greece?

還是是一堆借錢給希臘的愚蠢銀行的紓困案？

Because they are actually the same thing.

因為，這兩者其實是同一件事情

What you call them actually affects

你怎麼稱呼它們事實上真的會影響

how you react to them, viscerally and morally.

你怎麼對它們去做出反應，不論是出自內心地還是道德上地

I think psychological value is great to be absolutely honest.

我覺得心理學上的價值認為絕對地誠實是最好的

One of my great friends, a professor called Nick Chater,

我的一位好友，Nick Chater教授

who's the Professor of Decision Sciences in London,

是一位倫敦的決策科學系所的教授

believes that we should spend far less time

相信我們應該花更少的時間去

looking into humanity's hidden depths

探究所謂人類隱藏的深度

and spend much more time exploring the hidden shallows.

而花多一點時間探索所謂的隱藏的膚淺

I think that's true actually.

我認為那其實是真的

I think impressions have an insane effect

我認為印象對我們如何去看待某件事情

on what we think and what we do.

以及我們去做的事情都有莫大的影響

But what we don't have is a really good model of human psychology.

但是我們不會真的擁有一個好的人類心理學模型

At least pre-Kahneman perhaps,

至少在Kahneman之前的時代或許

we didn't have a really good model of human psychology

我們從未真的有一個好的人類心理學模型

to put alongside models of engineering, of neoclassical economics.

來與工程、新古典主義的模型相提並論

So people who believed in psychological solutions didn't have a model.

所以相信心理學解決方案的人們並沒有一個模型

We didn't have a framework.

我們並沒有一個可用的框架

This is what Warren Buffett's business partner Charlie Munger calls

這也就是Warren Buffett商業夥伴Charlie Munger所謂的

"a latticework on which to hang your ideas."

「一個能夠將你的想法表達出來的框架」

Engineers, economists, classical economists

工程師、經濟學家、古典經濟學家們

all had a very, very robust existing latticework

都有一個非常、非常穩固現行的框架

on which practically every idea could be hung.

讓幾乎每個想法都可以建立在其上討論

We merely have a collection of random individual insights

我們目前只有一對隨機的個人的洞察

without an overall model.

但缺少一個全盤的模型

And what that means is that in looking at solutions,

而那代表著我們在找解決方案時

we've probably given too much priority

我們也許會把我稱之為技術工程解決方案、牛頓式解法

to what I call technical engineering solutions, Newtonian solutions,

看得太重

and not nearly enough to the psychological ones.

而幾乎與心理學解決方法沾不上邊了

You know my example of the Eurostar.

你知道歐洲之星的例子

Six million pounds spent to reduce the journey time

花六百萬英鎊去減少約40分鐘

between Paris and London by about 40 minutes.

倫敦到巴黎的接駁時間

For 0.01 percent of this money you could have put WiFi on the trains,

用這筆錢的百分之0.01你就可以在火車上裝置WiFi

which wouldn't have reduced the duration of the journey,

也許不能縮短旅行時間

but would have improved its enjoyment and its usefulness far more.

但卻可以使其中的過程相對有樂趣且更具有功能性

For maybe 10 percent of the money,

花也許百分之10的錢

you could have paid all of the world's top male and female supermodels

你就可以負擔得起請全世界最好的超級男模和超級女模

to walk up and down the train handing out free Chateau Petrus to all the passengers.

走上、走下火車邊送上免費的Chateau Petrus葡萄酒給所有乘客

You'd still have five [million] pounds in change,

而且你還可以找回五百萬英鎊

and people would ask for the trains to be slowed down.

然後大家就要求火車能不能開慢點了

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

Why were we not given the chance

那為什麼我們不願意

to solve that problem psychologically?

用心理學的方式來解決這個問題？

I think it's because there's an imbalance, an asymmetry,

我認為這是因為存在不平衡、一種不對稱結構

in the way we treat creative, emotionally-driven psychological ideas

在我們如何對待有創造性、情緒驅使的心理學想法

versus the way we treat rational, numerical, spreadsheet-driven ideas.

與我們如何對待理性、數值的、有試算表驅使的想法

If you're a creative person, I think quite rightly,

你若是一個有創造力的人，我覺得應該是

you have to share all your ideas for approval

你必須要與比你理性許多的人分享你的點子

with people much more rational than you.

並且得到認同

You have to go in and you have to have a cost-benefit analysis,

你需要深入主題且要有成本效益分析

a feasibility study, an ROI study and so forth.

一個可靠的研究、一份投資報酬率的報告之類的等等

And I think that's probably right.

而我認為這是正確的

But this does not apply the other way around.

但反過來就不適用了

People who have an existing framework,

對擁有現有框架模型的人們來說

an economic framework, an engineering framework,

像是經濟學架構、工程學架構而言

feel that actually logic is its own answer.

裡頭的真正邏輯提供了問題的解答

What they don't say is, "Well the numbers all seem to add up,

他們沒說的是：「似乎數據都是對的

but before I present this idea,

但是在我展示這個想法之前

I'll go and show it to some really crazy people

我會拿給一些真的擁有很極端想法的人來檢視

to see if they can come up with something better."

看看他們是否會有更好的點子

And so we, artificially I think, prioritize

所以我認為我們以人為方式

what I'd call mechanistic ideas over psychological ideas.

將機械式的想法地位擺在心理學式想法之前

An example of a great psychological idea:

舉一個很棒的心理學的思考例子：

The single best improvement in passenger satisfaction

倫敦地鐵每英鎊花費相對的乘客滿意度唯一有提昇的原因不是

on the London Underground per pound spent

因為增加了更多的車廂或者車次

came when they didn't add any extra trains nor change the frequency of the trains,

而僅僅式他們在月台上增加了

they put dot matrix display boards on the platforms.

車班時刻螢幕顯示器

Because the nature of a wait

因為等待之所以痛苦

is not just dependent on its numerical quality, its duration,

不僅是由於那些可以看見的品質或者它的耐用程度

but on the level of uncertainty you experience during that wait.

也同時包含了乘客對於在等待下班車不知何時會來的不確定感程度有關

Waiting seven minutes for a train with a countdown clock

等車的時候有個螢幕顯示下一班車

is less frustrating and irritating

倒數七分鐘內會抵達就會讓人感到比較沒那麼煩躁和焦慮

than waiting four minutes, knuckle-biting

相較於等待一個沒有倒數計時顯示的四分鐘時間

going, "When's this train going to damn well arrive?"

你的感覺會是：「該死的車怎麼還不來？」之類的

Here's a beautiful example of a psychological solution

在韓國有個很不錯的

deployed in Korea.

心理學方式的解決方法

Red traffic lights have a countdown delay.

紅燈號誌內包含了倒數計時的延遲

It's proven to reduce the accident rate in experiments.

這在實驗中證實可以減少事故發生機率

Why? Because road rage, impatience and general irritation

怎麼說？因為路怒、缺乏耐心和抓狂

are massively reduced when you can actually see

都因為有個倒數計時器

the time you have to wait.

可以知道還有多少等待時間而減少了

In China, not really understanding the principle behind this,

相對的在中國不知道背後原因為何

they applied the same principle to green traffic lights.

他們是在綠燈號誌時加上倒數計時器

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

Which isn't a great idea.

這主意很爛

You're 200 yards away,

當你距離紅綠燈還有200碼

you realize you've got five seconds to go, you floor it.

你看見剩下五秒可以過，你就會想要猛採油門加速通過

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

The Koreans, very assiduously, did test both.

韓國人非常嚴謹費事的在兩種情況下都測試了

The accident rate goes down when you apply this to red traffic lights;

倒數計時器應用在紅燈號誌時有助於減少車禍發生機率

it goes up when you apply it to green traffic lights.

而應用在綠燈上時卻增加

This is all I'm asking for really in human decision making,

我迫切想要告訴大家

is the consideration of these three things.

三件至關我們做決策時該考量的事情

I'm not asking for the complete primacy of one over the other.

這三者沒有誰先誰後的問題

I'm merely saying that when you solve problems,

就只是認為在你解決問題時

you should look at all three of these equally

這三點你都該考慮進去

and you should seek as far as possible

且越完備越好

to find solutions which sit in the sweet spot in the middle.

最好是找到一個三者兼顧的解決方案

If you actually look at a great business,

你若認真去研究一個碩大的企業

you'll nearly always see all of these three things coming into play.

通常他們就是這麼做的

Really, really successful businesses -

而真的非常、非常有成就的企業

Google is a great, great technological success,

以Google來說好了，他們是很成功、很成功的科技公司

but it's also based on a very good psychological insight:

但是他們也同時奠基在很優質的心理學基礎上：

People believe something that only does one thing

「人們相信一個東西只具有一個功能

is better at that thing than something that does that thing and something else.

會來的比那樣東西有更多附加功能來的好。」

It's an innate thing called goal dilution.

這是一個與生俱來的觀念叫做目標稀釋

Ayelet Fishbach has written a paper about this.

Ayelet Fishbach 對這個主題寫過一篇論文

Everybody else at the time of Google, more or less,

除了Google外的所有人或多或少

was trying to be a portal.

都希望做出一個入口網站的形式

Yes, there's a search function,

具有搜尋功能

but you also have weather, sports scores, bits of news.

也同時具有天氣、運動比賽比數報導和許多的新聞

Google understood that if you're just a search engine,

Google了解到若專注做一個搜尋引擎

people assume you're a very, very good search engine.

大家就會假設你是一個非常、非常棒的搜尋引擎

All of you know this actually

大家可能知道這一點

from when you go in to buy a television.

因為你去買電視時

And in the shabbier end of the row of flat screen TVs

你會在扁平電視展示架的後面

you can see are these rather despised things

有些不怎麼討喜的東西

called combined TV and DVD players.

叫做複合式電視DVD撥放器

And we have no knowledge whatsoever of the quality of those things,

而我們對那些東西的品質一無所知

but we look at a combined TV and DVD player and we go, "Uck.

但是看見複合式電視DVD播放器我們可能會覺得不夠專業

It's probably a bit of a crap telly and a bit rubbish as a DVD player."

可能會是一個很爛的電視家上一台不怎麼樣的DVD播放器合體

So we walk out of the shops with one of each.

所以我們最後會DVD和電視各別買一台也不願買綜合體

Google is as much a psychological success as it is a technological one.

Google大致上就是抓住這種心理模式的科技公司

I propose that we can use psychology to solve problems

我提議我們使用心理學方法來解決

that we didn't even realize were problems at all.

那些我們甚至沒有意識到的問題

This is my suggestion for getting people to finish their course of antibiotics.

我給那些開藥給別人服用抗生素的醫生的建議是

Don't give them 24 white pills.

不要給他們24白色藥丸

Give them 18 white pills and six blue ones

而是給他們18顆白的和六顆藍的

and tell them to take the white pills first

然後告訴他們先吃白的

and then take the blue ones.

吃完白的再吃藍的

It's called chunking.

這叫做分段法

The likelihood that people will get to the end is much greater

這些以分段服用方式服藥的人比那些沒有分段的人，遵守醫囑服完藥的機率要大很多

when there is a milestone somewhere in the middle.

因為分段服用的那些人被給與一個類似里程碑的東西驅使他們去達成

One of the great mistakes, I think, of economics

我想其中一個很大的錯誤在於經濟學

is it fails to understand that what something is,

錯在不知道失業率、退休、成本這些項目

whether it's retirement, unemployment, cost,

的重點不在於它們數字的多寡

is a function, not only of its amount, but also its meaning.