5 signs China's economy is weaker than you think.

中國經濟趨緩的五大徵兆

Hello and welcome to China Uncensored.

嗨，歡迎收看「中國解密」

I'm your host, Chris Chappell.

我是主持人 Chris Chappell

China's economy.

中國的經濟成長如此迅速

Growth so fast it makes Jack's beanstalk jealous.

就連傑克的魔豆也望塵莫及

And like Jack's beanstalk,

如同傑克的魔豆故事

China's economic growth is sort of magical

中國的經濟成長宛如天方夜譚

in that it's kind of hard to believe.

令人難以置信

I mean, sure China has beans,

中國的確擁有豆子

and stocks,

以及股票 (豆蔓)

and people named Jack.

還有個人也叫傑克 (馬雲)

But could China's economy really be growing so much, so fast?

但是中國的經濟果真如此 迅速且高度成長？

So here are 5 signs China's economy is weaker than you think.

以下是中國經濟趨緩的五大徵兆

Number 5:

第五名

China's stock market is unstable.

中國的股市震盪幅度大

Very unstable, in fact.

可說劇烈震盪

In just the past year,

過去一年

it more than doubled,

股市上漲超過一倍

then crashed almost as far as it rose.

然後迅速崩盤 掉回起漲點

And since then it's been up, and down, and up again.

自此以後 股市便上下來回劇烈震盪

Hedge fund investor Jim Chanos put it more eloquently when he said China's stock market

避險基金經理人錢隆斯 (Jim Chanos) 生動的比喻中國股市

is "like a pig on LSD.

「像隻嗑了迷幻藥的豬

You don't know which way it's going to run."

你摸不清牠要往哪裡去」

I don't think having a pig on LSD is a good sign.

一隻嗑了藥的豬聽上去可不是什麼好兆頭

Not for your country's stock market, at least.

特別是以此來比喻一個國家的股市

If you own a ranch, though,

但如果你自己經營農場

it might be kind of entertaining.

或許還滿有趣的

Number 4:

第四名

China's GDP growth is much lower than reported

中國的 GDP 成長比起報導的還要更低

The Chinese government loves to brag that its GDP is so much bigger than everybody else's.

中國政府向來喜歡吹噓自家的 GDP 比起他國要強

The problem is,

問題在於

it's full of hot air.

其中吹牛皮的成分居多

Kind of like the Hindenberg.

就像是艘興登堡號飛船

In recent years,

近幾年來

the officially reported figure has been around 7 percent.

官方報導中國的 GDP 成長為 7%

But Li Keqiang,

但是中國現任國務院總理李克強

China's current premier and the person more or less in charge of China's economic policy,

對於中國的經濟政策或多或少握有掌控權

once said that even he doesn't trust the official GDP figures.

曾說過，就連他自己也不 相信官方提供的 GDP 數字

He didn't say that publicly, of course.

當然 他並非在公開場合發表這段談話

We learned that from a Wikileaked cable.

我們是從維基解密的一份電報中得知

Back in 2007,

2007 年時

Li was head of the Communist Party in Liaoning province.

李克強時任遼寧省委書記

He told the US ambassador that China's GDP figures are "man-made".

他告訴美國大使中國的 GDP 數字是「人造的」

Li said he looked at electricity production, rail-freight cargo, and bank lending to get

李克強說他是以電力消耗、鐵路貨運量 和發放的貸款金額

a more accurate picture of GDP in Liaoning.

對遼寧的 GDP 能有更確切的估算

And going by that measurement,

根據這個方式

China's overall GDP growth isn't 7 percent.

中國整體的 GDP 成長絕對不可能是 7%

It's closer to 3 percent.

而更接近 3%

China bear Gordon Chang estimates growth could even be as low as 1 or 2 percent.

看空中國經濟的章家敦估計 GDP 成長 甚至只有 %1 或 2%

But whether it's 1 percent or 7 percent,

不論中國的 GDP 成長究竟是 1% 或是 7%

there's still another problem.

仍舊存在著另一個問題

A lot of it is empty growth.

中國的經濟成長其實虛有其表

A simple way to look at GDP is how much money is spent each year.

一個評斷 GDP 成長的簡單方式就是 每年花費的金額

GDP is supposed to tell you how healthy the economy is.

GDP 理應成為判斷經濟是否健全的依據

But in China, the government spends a lot of money on worthless things.

但在中國，政府花許多錢在無用的建設

Like building ghost cities that no one lives in.

例如搭蓋無人入住的鬼城

Or bridges that collapse.

或是搭建容易倒塌的橋樑

It's like the quote from that movie.

就像某部電影中的台詞

"If you build it…they won't come…but it's still GDP."

「如果你將它建好‧‧‧‧‧‧ 他們不會來‧‧‧‧‧‧ 但 GDP 還是會成長。」

Number 3:

第三名

China is cutting interest rates...again

中國再次‧‧‧‧‧‧ 調降利率

So what does a government do when it sees its economy slowing down,

當政府見到經濟趨緩 通常會有以什麼因應措施

and wants to jump start it?

來刺激經濟？

It cuts interest rates.

政府會調降利率

Low interest rates mean businesses can more easily borrow money to invest.

低利率意謂企業能夠輕易借貸資金去投資

In theory, this helps the economy grow.

理論上來說 這能夠幫助經濟成長

What's weird is that China is supposed to have one of the world's fastest-growing economies.

弔詭之處在於中國應該是全世界 經濟發展最快速的一個國家

So why would they need to cut interest rates?

既然如此，為何要調降利率？

But in fact their central bank has lowered interest rates six times this year.

但是事實上 中國人民銀行今年以來已經六度調降利率

It's almost as if the guy in charge of China's economic policy doesn't believe China's GDP

看起來好像掌控中國經濟政策的頭人 不相信中國的 GDP

data.

數據

Oh, and here's the problem with low interest rates.

喔‧‧‧‧‧‧ 低利率也會造成問題

Although it helps in some ways, it also encourages companies to invest in things that aren't

儘管低利率能夠提供一些幫助 卻也變相鼓勵企業

necessarily good investments.

進行不必要的投資

Like building cities that no one's going to live in.

像是搭蓋無人入住的鬼城

Number 2

第二名

China has an unemployment problem

中國遭遇失業的問題

You know how I said electricity production is supposed to help measure GDP growth?

還記得先前提到電力消耗 是評斷 GDP 成長的依據嗎？

Well one of China's biggest coal companies just fired 100,000 employees.

不久前中國最大的煤礦公司 裁撤了十萬名員工

Because China's electricity growth is the weakest it's been in 30 years.

因為中國的電力成長經歷三十年來最大的衰退

You know who else can't find jobs?

你知道還有誰面臨找不到工作的窘境？

Millions of people.

數以百萬的人

But don't worry,

但是別擔心

because if you look at the Chinese government's officially reported urban unemployment data,

如果你看了中國政府官方的 城市失業勞工統計數字

it's quite stable.

其實還挺穩定的

Freakishly stable, actually.

說實在 穩定到令人發毛

It's so stable that even Japan

就連日本

Japan, where it's almost impossibly to lay off employees

在幾乎不可能裁員的情況下

has more fluctuation in unemployment.

失業人數的波動幅度都還比中國高

I mean, it's as if Japan, like every other country,

看起來好像日本跟世界其他國家一樣

is affected by the global economy...

皆受到全球金融危機影響

...and China magically is not.

唯獨中國奇蹟似的不受影響

But it's not so magical for the millions of Chinese college graduates who can't find jobs.

但是對於中國數以百萬的失業大學生來說 奇蹟可一點都沒展現在他們的身上

That's why so many live in squalid conditions, sometimes literally underground, in what are

這是為何許多年輕人擠在狹窄骯髒的環境 有時真的就住地下室

called yi-zu

他們統稱為蟻族

or "ant tribes."

.

Speaking of young people...

說到年輕人

Number 1

第一名

China doesn't have enough of them

中國欠缺足夠的勞動力

Yes, even though many educated young people can't find jobs,

沒錯，許多受過教育的年輕人找不到工作

China has an overall problem of too many old people and not enough young people.

中國面臨的大問題在於 老年人口勝過年輕人口

In the 70s,

七○年代

the government created the One-Child Policy to slow down population growth.

政府提倡一胎化政策 想要減緩人口成長的速度

But that policy was kind of a disaster.

但是這個政策根本是個災難

It's like no one actually did the math.

好像沒人會算算數

Because people get old,

因為當人們年紀漸長

and need to be taken care of.

必須受到照顧

After two generations,

經過兩個世代之後

an only child today whose parents are also only children will have to take care of two

現今家中的獨子，其父母也是獨子的話 不但必須奉養雙親

parents and four elderly grandparents.

另外還得照顧四個年長的祖父母

And how can you do that if you can barely afford to live in an underground ant tribe?

如果你是個只能住在地下室的蟻族 如何能擔負起照顧長者的責任？

The imbalance is so bad that even China's new Two-Child Policy won't able to fix it

失衡的狀況十分嚴重 就算政府提出二胎化政策

anytime soon.

恐怕遠水救不了近火

Without a young healthy workforce,

缺少年輕健康的勞動人口

good luck keeping up that economic growth.

如果能趕上經濟成長的速度真是萬幸

So perhaps China's economy is not all unicorns and ponies.

或許中國的經濟不能繼續唱獨角戲

Though it might have some pigs on LSD.

但起碼會有嗑藥的豬

So what do you think?

你有什麼看法？

Leave your comments below.

請將意見留在下方的版面

And if you're wondering what life is like after a serious economic crisis,

如果你對於面臨嚴重 經濟危機的生活感到好奇

check out this video from our friends at Seeker Daily.

歡迎前往我們的好朋友 Seeker Daily 觀看影片

"Greece is grappling with one of the worst economic crises in history.

希臘正遭逢歷史上最大的經濟危機

At the center of this crisis is Athens,

雅典則是暴風的中心

where people are starting to panic."

全國上下無不感到驚慌

Once again I'm Chris Chappell.

我是主持人 Chris Chappell

See

下次再見

you next time.