The topic today is currency wars.

今天的主題是貨幣戰爭。

Central banks around the world are trying to stimulate their economies,

世界各地的中央銀行都在試著刺激該國經濟，

and to do this, it would be helpful if the currency would lose value, stimulating trade.

如果貨幣貶值，這對於刺激貿易是有用的。

The problem is, however, not all currencies can fall at once.

但是問題出在，不是所有的貨幣都可以馬上貶值。

But Japan has become the latest bank to join the negative rates club.

日本也在最近加入了負利率俱樂部的行列。

It now costs money to save money in Japan.

在日本，人們存錢還會有損失。

To think about the consequences for the Yen, we're joined by Jim Reavis of M&G investments.

我們邀請M&G investments 的 Jim Reavis 來討論這對日幣帶來的結果。

Welcome, Jim.

Jim 歡迎。

Hello.

大家好。

So I think you've got one great chart here which really can set the scene for us and give us the long-term context about what's happening.

我想你有一張圖表，可以為我們解釋有關長期下來的走向。

Yes, so I mean. If you got back to 1970s you would see a gradual appreciation of the Japanese Yen against the US dollar

是的。可以看到在 1970 年代，日幣對美元呈現緩慢地升值，

all the way through really until 2 or 3 years ago when suddenly the US Dollar becomes the global currency of choice.

一直到最近的2、3年，美元突然變成全球貨幣的首選。

Now, the blue line on this chart is showing you purchasing power parity.

圖表上的藍線顯示的是購買力評價。

Now, what does that mean?

所以，這是什麼意思？

Well, it's the old Big Max index that the economists published.

這是經濟學家提出的舊大麥克指數。

Um, it basically shows you if you could buy exactly the same good in one country and export it to another country.

嗯，基本上它代表你是否能以同樣的幣值在一個國家買到這樣東西，然後出口到另一個國家，

Once you've converted the currencies to adjust for that, in which country does the Big Mac look expensive and in which one does it look cheap.

轉換和調整幣值後，看大麥克在哪個國家比較貴、哪個國家比較便宜。

And you see for the chart now that, people have this perception of Japan being ferociously expensive economy.

從圖表可以看出，人們持有日本是一個非常昂貴經濟體的誤解，

Going back to the 1980s boomer, an expensive place to buy stuff and do business.

但其實回到 1980 年代的經濟起飛期，當時在日本買東西和做生意才是很貴的。

Actually, that's not the case anymore.

但如今已不同以往。

And if you look at PPP, your Big Mac in Tokyo is very much cheaper than it is in United States or elsewhere in the world.

如果你看購買力平價指數，東京的大麥克指數比美國和世界上其他國家都來得便宜。

To the extent that it looks as if the Japanese Yen is fundamentally undervalued right now.

程度上來說，現在的日幣價值根本是被低估的。

The bank of Japan although, uh, would like to make that even cheaper.

日本的央行想要讓日幣的價值更低。

In order just to stay to stimulate its economy and to throw off those speculators

這麼做是為了刺激其經濟，和讓投機客退場，

who built up quite aggressively long positions in the Japanese Yen over Christmas and as we started in 2016.

這些投機客在聖誕節後到現在一直非常積極的買進期貨（建立多頭部位）。

So are you saying we should buy the Yen right now?

你的意思是我們應該要買進日幣嗎？

Or is the central bank sort of fighting it going to stop this sort of resetting of the currency

還是這是中央銀行正在試著停止這種貨幣重組

back towards that sort of fundamental place where it should be?

讓日幣回到原本應有的水準？

Well, they'd like to keep it cheap.

嗯，他們想要讓日幣持續低價。

Um, the question is, how much more can I do in this?

但問題是，要讓日幣低到多少？

You know, we talked about the three hours of Japanese policy, *

我們講到日本的ＸＸ政策*

monetary policy, fiscal policy, and then structural reform.

貨幣政策、財政政策和結構重整。

I don't think they've got a lot more room to do more things on the monetary front.

我不覺得他們對於貨幣政策有更多的作法。

They've already got negative interest rates, have done lots of lots of quantitative easing.

他們現在已經是負利率了，也做了許多貨幣寬鬆。

Have they really got the ammunition and the will to send Yen even further down?

他們有拿到籌碼，讓日幣更加貶值嗎？

I think the answer is no, for many reasons.

我想有很多的理由顯示，這個答案是否定的。

But included within that, do they really want to generate much more inflation within Japan?

在此之下，他們會想要讓日本更加通貨膨漲嗎？

We have elections coming up for the upper house later this year,

今年稍晚日本會舉行參議院選舉，

and Abe really wants to win a big two thirds majority there to change the Constitution.

安倍一定會想要贏得三分之二成為多數黨，來改革憲法。

But a lot of his constituents that he'll need to win the election don't even like inflation of even half a percent.

但是大多數能幫助他贏得選舉的內閣之中，少於半數的人根本不支持通貨膨脹。

So, given we have seen a minus sell off in the end of last week or so

在大概在上週我們看到減少賣出，

and the back of the negative rate,

而且負利率又再度出現，

surprise, it probably is the time to be back in the end once more.

雖然震驚，但這是負利率差不多再一次出現的時機了。

And I guess the flip slide of that is the dollar,

往另一方面想，我們有美元，

and what about dollar strength

美元強勢帶來的影響是什麼，

not just against the Yen, but against sort of the world's other currencies.

不只是對日幣，而是對於世界上其他的貨幣。

Basically, the dollar has been in the currency of choice for the last year.

基本上，美元在去年已經成為貨幣的首選。

Yeah, and I'm looking back to the history

是的，從歷史的角度來看，

one thing that worried me for being a dollar bull was that once the Feds starts the hike,

美元走強讓我擔心的點是，央行開始升息，

in the past four right hiking cycles, actually the dollar didn't quite get back in the next six months.

在之前四次的升息循環，美元在最初的前六個月都沒有回到原來水準。

I think the thing that is different this time is that the Fed is the only gamer in town, no one else is ready to hike interest rates.

但這次升息不一樣的是，美國央行是現在市場上唯一玩家，沒有其他國家準備好升息。

On the flip slide if you wanted to put a bit of mitigation on that bullet shot for the dollar,

另一方面來說，如果想要緩解美元升值的效果，

well, the Chinese are selling a lot of dollars at the moment.

中國在此時正在大量賣出美元。

They liquidated maybe a hundred billion of US treasuries towards the end of last year.

他們在去年年底在清算大約百億美元的美國國債。

They'd like to keep on selling both to support their own currency so the risk is going to be this perpetual dripping of Asian Central bank money out of the dollar,

他們會想要持續賣出美元來支持自己的貨幣，所以風險就是亞洲央行會慢慢地減少美元持有數量，

but the fundamentals, the growth story, the interest rates story mean probably the dollars stay strong from here on in.

但是一般投資客、成長、利率皆表示美元會持續保持強勢。

Great, thanks a lot for that Jim.

很好，非常謝謝 Jim。

So, as the currency wars continue,

當貨幣戰爭持續下去，

what we have is the fight between the fundamentals and the central bankers.

一般投資客跟央行之爭也會持續進行。