And it's been another rather miserable day on, well, stock markets both in Europe and the US,

所以呢，悲慘的日子持續延燒，嗯，歐洲和美國地區的股市

more less all Friday's gains that came after the bank of Japan told us that

自周五，日本央行的漲勢告訴我們

it was moving to next * have now been canceled out.

*

Japan has lost some of its gains since then.

自那之後，日本已遭受虧損。

If you also take a look at the oil prices, it's fallen once more,

你也可以看一下油價的情況，油價下跌的更低了，

but perhaps most concerning is what's going on in the bond market.

但最令人憂心的，恐怕是債券市場的情況。

If you take a look at the 10-year treasury yield, you can see that it has dropped very sharply today.

如果你看看 10 年期的國債收益率，你可以看到，今日它已巨幅下跌。

It's below 1.9%. Okay, it has been lower than that in various times over the last few years,

它落在 1.9%以下了。好吧，在過去這幾年甚至有不少次在更低的位置過

but it's really quite remarkable that we are seeing a 10-year yield that low,

但最值得一提的是，我們是看到 10年期的國債收益率如此的低，

given the Fed has now actually started raising rates and told us that it's gonna keep doing so.

因為美國央行確實地開始升息，而且對外宣稱未來將持續如此。

The people planning on buying the 10-year treasury are forcing its yield down

計畫要購買 10年期國債的人們迫使其收益下降

because there are negative yields elsewhere, but it's still a startling development.

因為還有別處的負收益，但這仍是個讓人吃驚的發展。

If we now take a look at the bond market from another perspective and take a look at the yield's curve,

如果我們從另一個角度來看看債券市場，並看一看收益率曲線，

in other words, the gap between the yields on the 10-year and the yields on the 2-year treasury,

換句話說，十年期和兩年期國債收益率的差距

often seems very complicated but the basic intuition is wider.

往往看似複雜，基本的直覺卻是廣泛的。

That gap is, the greater the optimism is into the future,

差距是，對未來走向越樂觀

the greater the belief is that you'll see growth and inflation and higher rates into the future.

你會看到未來經濟成長、通貨膨脹、高利率的肯定性越發提高。

Therefore, when you see narrowing as we've seen now,

因此，你現在看到距離縮短

we've got the flattest yield's curve since the crisis year of 2008.

在危機重重的 2008 年，我們早已見到最平坦的收益曲線。

That's a very negative sign.

那是非常負面的預兆。

It suggests that people are getting much more concerned about the risk of a recession here in the US.

因為那表示，人們開始越發關心美國這裡經濟衰退的風險了。

Even if at least for the time being, the yields on the 2 and the 10-year treasury

即使現在目前，兩年期國債和十年期國債

haven't inverted in what is a very classic recession indicator.

尚未轉變成非常典型的衰退指標。

Now, this is a big development.

看好了，這是個巨大的變化。

Only a month ago, it was taken almost exactly * whatever else happened in the rest of the world,

僅僅一個月前，大家還認為* 不管世界其他角落發生什麼事，

the US would keep growing.

美國股市肯定持續上漲。

We've now seen a lot of research reports in the last few days from various brokerages

這幾天，我們已看到不少來自各個券商的研究報告

looking at what recession risk might look like here in the US.

指出美國經濟衰退的風險將會是如何。

They all come down on the notion, I think correctly that the US isn't in recession yet, but the risks of it are rising.

大部分報告都點出這個概念，而我認為美國事實上尚未踏入經濟衰退的泥沼，但情勢上來看風險是增高的。

You can see that's in the very concerning ISM manufacturing date, which is still very mediocre.

你可以看到這是在非常令人擔憂的，ISM 製造業迄今為止，仍維持非常普通的狀態。

You can also see that's in the Fed's senior loan officer survey, which came out this week,

你也可以看到在這份這週提出的美國央行資深信貸員調查表單，

and which show that standards of loans to companies are tightening.

這顯示出公司貸款的標準縮緊了。

If this proves merely to be a growth , if as still seems likely we can avert a recession

如果這證明了這稱不上成長，如果經濟衰退仍有可能發生，

than presumably there should be value from the kind of levels we are at now.

那我們可以從現在的水平預見那樣的結果。

If not, there is further for the stock markets of all.

*如果不是，那股市會有更多發展空間。

Ever greater interest therefore, on the nonfarm payroll date, will be getting at the end of this week.

比先前更高的利息，在非農就業數據上將會在這週結束。