Finn: and I'm Finn. Hello.

芬恩：我是芬恩，大家好

Alice: Hello, Finn. You're off on holiday tomorrow, aren't you?

艾莉絲：你好，芬恩，明天你就要去度假了，對嗎？

Finn: I am and you know, and I'm dreading it. I hate flying!

芬恩：沒錯，而且我怕得要命，我痛恨飛行！

Alice: Do you? I didn't know you had a phobia

艾莉絲：是嗎？我不知道你有恐懼症

and that means a strong and unreasonable fear of something.

「phobia」（恐懼症）的意思是對某件事感到強烈且毫無理由的恐懼

Finn: Well, I don't think this is a phobia because it isn't unreasonable.

芬恩：我不覺得這是恐懼症，因為它不是毫無理由的

Flying thousands of feet up in the sky in a tin can, you know, that's not safe!

乘著一個鐵罐飛在幾千英呎高的空中，那很危險！

Alice: Flying is safer than you think, Finn. It's much riskier to drive or cycle to work.

艾莉絲：飛行比你想的安全多了，芬恩，開車或騎腳踏車上班還更危險

And, actually, risk taking is the subject of today's show!

而且，事實上「冒險」就是我們今天的主題

Risk means the chances of something bad happening.

「risk」（危險）的意思是某些壞事發生的可能性

For example, did you know that your chance of being knocked off your bicycle

例如，你知道騎腳踏車被撞倒及

and killed during a one-mile journey is the same as your chances of winning the lottery?

在一英里內路程中被殺害的機率跟中樂透一樣嗎？

Finn: You know Alice, I didn't know that.

芬恩：我不知道

Alice: And this leads me on to our quiz question for today:

艾莉絲：而這帶領我們來到今日的小問題：

What are the odds ... what are the chances of either of these two things happening? Is it...

以上這兩件事情發生的機率是多少？

a) 1 in 4 million? b) 1 in 14 million?

是a)四百萬分之一　 b) 一千四百萬分之一

Or c) 1 in 400 million?

還是 c)四億分之一

Finn: I have no idea. I'll go with the big number: 1 in 400 million, c).

芬恩：我不知道，我選大的那個：c) 四億分之一　

Alice: OK. So we'll find out later if you're right or wrong later on.

艾莉絲：好的，那麼接下來我們就會知道你是對還是錯

Now let's listen to Andreas Wilkey, a psychologist at Clarkson University in New York,

現在讓我們聽聽紐約克拉克森大學心理學家，安德烈斯．威爾基

talking about why we're bad at assessing risk.

談論我們有多不善於估算風險

Andreas Wilkey: People typically fear anything which is small probability

安德烈斯．威爾基：一般來說人們會去害怕發生機率很小

but it's extremely catastrophic if it were to happen...

但如果發生了就是一場大災難的危險...

Think about dying in a plane crash, think about a nuclear meltdown from the nearby power plant.

像是在空難中罹難或附近的核能發電廠反應爐熔毀

Recently we have another increase in these birds' virus outbreaks in South Korea.

最近我們又轉而對南韓爆發的禽流感感到害怕

People read about that.

人們讀過相關的新聞

And they may pay a lot of attention to that in the news but they may forget to get their flu shot.

而他們又會放太多的注意力在其上以至於忘記去打疫苗

Finn: That was Andreas Wilkey from Clarkson University.

芬恩：以上是克拉克森大學安德烈斯．威爾基的分析

And we heard that a small probability of something happening means it's unlikely to happen.

我們聽到的「a small probability of something happening」（發生某件事的機率很小）意思是不常發生

But we worry about big or catastrophic events such as catching bird flu or dying in a plane crash

但是我們會害怕某種嚴重且具毀滅性的事情發生，像是感染禽流感或是在空難中罹難

because we have a gut reaction to them

因為我們對這類事件擁有本能上的反應

in other words, we react emotionally.

也就是說，衝動性的反應

A catastrophic event is something that causes a huge amount of damage and suffering.

「catastrophic event」（災難）的意思是造成巨大傷害或痛苦的事情

Alice: And it's often because of media coverage

艾莉絲：而這樣的情況經常源於媒體覆蓋率

for example, watching the news and reading the newspapers

例如，看新聞或報紙

that it can be difficult for us to understand how likely certain things are to happen.

使我們難以設身處地的理解事情的情況

Catastrophic events feel like very real threats,

當我們易於遺忘很小但是經常發生乃至習以為常的危險時

while we tend to forget about the small but chronic risks that become more likely over time.

災難就會感覺像是一種真正的威脅

Finn: We do. Chronic means something that lasts for a long time.

芬恩：沒錯，「chronic」 的意思是持久、長期的事情

So for example, what if there was a cigarette that killed you as soon as you smoked it?

打個比方，如果只要一吸菸你就會死的話

Nobody would do that, would they?

還會有人要吸菸嗎？

Alice: No, they wouldn't.

艾莉絲：不會

Finn: But plenty of people are happy to smoke for years

芬恩：但大量的人卻多年來恣意的吸菸

and put off worrying about the health risks for the future.

並將未來的身體健康放在一旁

Alice: Yes, that's a good point, Finn! People feel they are in control of risks that stretch over time.

艾莉絲：很好的舉例，芬恩！人們覺得自己能控制那隨著時間過去而增長的危險

You know, they think, "I could stop tomorrow" or "I could smoke less".

他們覺得「我明天再戒就好了」，或是「我可以吸少一點」

But what about people who enjoy taking big risks – those thrill seekers out there?

那麼那些享受冒險的極限挑戰者又是怎麼想的呢?

Finn: People who enjoy extreme sports actually seek out danger – it gives them extreme pleasure!

芬恩：享受極限運動的人們實際上是在尋找危險，危險帶給他們極致的快樂

So let's listen to Karina Hollekim from Norway. She's a base jumper �V that's

那麼，讓我們聽聽挪威的卡琳娜．赫利肯的說法，她是一位

a person with a parachute who leaps from tall buildings or cliffs

乘著跳傘穿梭於高樓與懸崖峭壁間的低空跳傘員

and she's talking about what she feels about risk.

她將談論她面對危險時的感覺

Karina Hollekim: You need to measure the pleasure. Is it going to be worth it for you?

卡琳娜．赫利肯：你需要去估量歡愉對你來說值不值得

So if the risk is really high, it means that the pleasure needs to be equally high.

所以如果非常危險，那們表示它帶來的歡愉需要與危險同等

Or hopefully even higher... You can't measure it on a scale or anything. For me, it's a stomach feeling.

或甚至更高，你沒有辦法用量角器或任何器具來測量它，對我來說，是用胃來感覺

It's the value within me, and I'm the only one who can tell what value it has to me.

這是我的人生價值，我是唯一知道那價值對我來說是什麼的人

Alice: Yes. It must be a magical feeling to step off a cliff, mustn't it, Finn?

艾莉絲：能夠落在懸崖上一定是個很美妙的感覺，對吧，芬恩？

Finn: "It's a stomach feeling", you know – my stomach would definitely be saying, "oh no, no, no!"

芬恩：「用胃來感覺」，我的胃一定會對我說「喔不，不，不」

So why not change the subject and give me the answer to today's quiz question?

所以，我們怎麼不轉換一下話題，告訴我今日小問題的答案呢？

Alice: I asked: What are your chances of being knocked off your bicycle and killed during

艾莉絲：我問「被撞倒腳踏車和在一英哩的路途中被殺

a one-mile journey and this is the same as your chances of winning the national lottery?

以及中國家樂透的機率有多少」

So is it... a) 1 in 4 million? b) 1 in 14 million? Or c) 1 in 400 million?

答案是a) 四百萬分之一 b) 一千四百萬分之一 或是 c) 四億分之一

Finn: I said c) 1 in 400 million.

芬恩：我說是 c) 四億分之一

Alice: Yes. And you were wrong, Finn.

艾莉絲：沒錯，而你是錯的，芬恩

Finn: Alright. Really? OK.

芬恩：喔，是嗎？好吧

Alice: Yes. The odds are actually 1 in 14 million.

艾莉絲：是的，機率是一千四百萬分之一

You are as likely to win the national lottery from a single ticket

你會用一張彩卷中國家樂透和

as you are to be knocked off your bicycle and killed during a one-mile journey.

被撞倒腳踏車和在一英哩的路途中被殺的機率一樣

This statistic comes from the Professor David Spiegelhalter,

這項統計數字來源為大衛．史畢柯霍克教授

who is Winton Professor of the Public Understanding of Risk in the Statistical Laboratory at the

一位英國劍橋大學統計實驗室中

University of Cambridge in the UK.

大眾危機意識學的教授

So I think he really knows his stuff.

我覺得他真的很了解自己的定位

Finn: That's a very long title, yes, I'm sure he does.

芬恩：真是有夠長的頭銜，我確定他非常了解

Alice: Yeah.

艾莉絲:是啊

Finn: So let's hear today's words again, Alice?

芬恩：那麼，讓我們來聽聽今天的單字吧，艾莉絲？

Alice: Here they are:

艾莉絲：那麼我們開始：

phobia

恐懼症

risk

危險

probability

可能性

gut reaction

本能反應

catastrophic

災難性的

media coverage

媒體覆蓋率

chronic

長期的

thrill seekers

極限運動員

base jumper

低空跳傘

And that brings us to the end of today's 6 Minute English.

今天的六分鐘英語就在此告一段落

We hope you were thrilled by today's programme.

希望你享受今天的節目

Please join us again soon.

希望再次見到你

Both: Bye.

兩位：掰掰