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  • China has a hot new export market turmoil,

    中國有個嶄新,熱門且轟動的新出口市場,

  • the eyes of the world were on the Shanghai composite and on the daily fixing of the Renminbi.

    全世界都在關注上海證券交易以及人民幣的每日漲跌。

  • Sometimes that doesn't make for pretty reading, Martin Wolf here tell me his take on it.

    而情況時好時壞,請 Martin Wolf 告訴我們他提出的應對措施。

  • One possible solution that got put forward in Devos, Martine, was the tighter capital controls,

    一個在 Devos 被提議的可能決方案,Martine ,是進行更嚴格的資本管制,

  • this was the idea from bank of Japan governer Haruhiko Kuroda.

    這是日本政治家黑田東彥對當地銀行提出的想法。

  • Will this work? is it a plan that can or is it desperate measures?

    這方法會成功嗎? 這是個可行的好方法或者只是權宜之計呢?

  • I suspect a bit of both. I mean China still has exchange controls, so it's not a fully liberalized system.

    我懷疑兩著皆是。我的意思是,中國還掌有外匯管制,它還不是一個完全開放的體制。

  • It's moving glacially, I think appropriately to becoming a fully liberalized system.

    它還在緩慢邁向成為完全開放的體制。

  • They could tighten the controls. And at the moment, or at least indeed for now for quite some months,

    他們可能會更嚴密的管制。在管制當下,或至少這幾個月以來,

  • they'd be losing foreign currency reserves at an enormous rate.

    他們會大量損失外匯存底。

  • They've lost almost 700 billion dollars in the last year and a half.

    他們在去年損失了七千億美元。

  • And even for China, which has 4 trillion dollars of reserves, or had in the beginning, this is an enormous amount.

    對擁有四兆美元的存底,至少一開始有,的中國來說,這也是一個龐大的損失。

  • So they can't really continue to do so. They're obviously doing it to try and stop the exchange rate from collapsing.

    所以他們不能繼續這麼做。很明顯的他們正在努力阻止匯率崩盤。

  • We all want it not to collapse cause it would create a big deflationary shock for the world, we really don't need that right now.

    我們都希望他不要崩盤,因為這導致全球性的通貨緊縮,我們現在真的不需要這個。

  • Um...but on the other hand, they don't really want to continue like this. So what are the alternatives?

    但是中國又不想要繼續這樣,所以有甚麼替代方案呢?

  • Well basically, in the short run, the simplest thing is to stop the buying by Chinese people of dollars. And controls would do it.

    基本上,在短期,最簡單的方法就是阻止中國人再購買美金。只要透過管制就能達到這項目的。

  • Obviously, then we'll have to get into the question of why are they buying dollars?

    很明顯的,我們就必須開始探討他們要買美金的原因。

  • Part of it is strike capital flight, I think. People are frightened about the anti-corruption campaign.

    一部分的原因是為了打擊資本逃避(轉移)。人們被反腐敗運動嚇壞了。

  • Part of it is a lack of good investment opportunities as the economy slows and they'd be investing far too much.

    另一部份是因為缺少好的投資機會,國內經濟成展緩慢,人民於國內的投資已經太多了。

  • And part of it is Chinese corporates trying to redeem debt, which they can track it in dollars,

    還有一部份是中國的公司試著償還企業債券,而這是可以用美金計價的。

  • and now they realize the dollar's rising, the Renminbi is falling, it's getting more expensive all the time.

    現在他們意識到美金再升值,人民幣在貶值,美金越來越貴了。

  • And so this is what's going on and some of that, the People's bank could stop if they really wanted to.

    這就是現在的狀況。中國人民銀行如果想要的話是可以阻止這樣的狀況的。

  • Why is this of concern to the bank of Japan though, is it the exporting deflation angle their real problem,

    為甚麼這會是日本的銀行該關心的事呢,還是說出口緊縮才是他們真正的麻煩,

  • or do they worry about financial market turmoil in of itsefl?

    還是他們擔心金融市場的巨變?

  • I think that it's both and I think it's true for everybody.

    我覺得都是,而且對大家來說都是如此。

  • There is a lot of concern now, pretty obviously in the markets and among policy makers about what's happening in China,

    現在有很多值得關注的議題,很明顯關於中國的市場以及立法機關,

  • particularly since last summer when we had this sort of first bout of turbulence.

    尤其是在去年夏天我們有了第一次的動盪。

  • Pretty obvious that China is slowing quite fast that the authorities aren't completely in control of this process,

    很明顯中國正在快速的暫緩腳步,當權機關並沒有完全掌控這個過程。

  • and among other things that they're not so closely linked, there's quite a bit of market turbulence being generated by China.

    包含其他一些沒有非常相關的事情,中國導致了滿動盪的市場。

  • Part of that is capital outflow and the effects on the currency, and they're particularly concerned with the latter

    一部份是資本外流加上貨幣的影響,而他們尤其在乎後者。

  • cause China is the world's largest striding power, it's the world's largest exporter.

    因為中國是世界上最強大正快速起飛的勢力,他們是全球最大的輸出國。

  • If the currency were to collapse and money were really to flood out,

    如果貨幣真的崩盤資金的的會外流,

  • because people would be desperate to get out as they're losing the value of their currency,

    因為人們會陷入絕望,他們的貨幣將變得一文不值。

  • that could generate a lot of turbulence in the world.

    那會產生全球性的大動盪。

  • Unpredictable, but the world is unbelievably delicate in the moment as we can see.

    未來是不可預知的,但就如我們看到的,這個世界是如此難以置信的脆弱。

  • So that's the last thing anybody wants.

    所以這是所有人最不希望看到發生的事。

  • And you think what's the message you think tighter controls would give out?

    那你覺得如果中國實施嚴格控管,他們是在傳達怎麼樣的訊息?

  • Is it we've got the situation under control or is it we're running out of ideas?

    是一切都在我們的掌控之內呢,還是在說我們真的沒辦法了?

  • Both, I think. Everybody understands that's the process of integrating the Chinese economy into the world economy,

    我想都是吧。大家都了解這是將中國經濟融入全球經濟的過程。

  • particularly on the financial side, is going to be a very complicated process, very difficult with lots of risks associated with it.

    特別是在金融的部分,會是非常繁複的程序,非常困難且風險重重。

  • And that's partly because China so huge, it's partly because China has been separate from the world economy on the financial side pretty well completely,

    而這一部份是因為中國真的是太大了,中國的金融已經太徹底跟全球經濟體分割。

  • and it's partly because China is going through this huge complex transition to a liberalized, a more deregulated economy in theory without this giant investment boom.

    而一部份是因為中國正經歷轉型成為自由開放的經濟體的這個巨大轉變,一個理論上解除管制的經濟體,卻沒有鉅額的投資金。

  • And if you add these three things together,

    如果你把這三件事加在一起,

  • you could easily imagine cause there are so much debt now in China and there are so much uncertainty in China that could be very very destabilizing.

    你就可以想像世界對中國有太多的質疑,中國有太多的不確定性使一切非常不穩定。

  • I've got a sort of favorite number, um... they're many other ways of thinking about it.

    我有一個最喜歡的數字,嗯這有很多不同的看法的。

  • The annual flow of savings, each year savings in China is about, when translated into dollars is worth nearly 5 trillion dollars.

    年儲蓄流量,每年中國的儲蓄量,換算成美金高達五兆美金。

  • That's almost doubled US savings.

    這幾乎是美國儲量的兩倍。

  • If that were really allowed out, knows what it would do to the world.

    如果這這樣的金額真的被管制不得外流,誰知道會對世界就造成怎樣的影響。

  • So, yes. It is a bit of panic and it is going to be bumpy, and there are going to be processes of liberalization and then reversals.

    所以是的,這真的是令人人心惶惶而且道路顛頗,會稍微邁向自由開放後反轉。

  • I don't expect the full integration of China if it happens.

    如果發生的話,我並不期待中國完全跟世界融合。

  • That happen to occur into way into the 2020s.

    這會在2020年代發生。

  • We've probably got a decay like this in front of us .

    或許美國會開始衰退。

  • Yeah, and a bit interesting to see if there's a collision of views around this bank of Japan position.

    是的,而看看日本銀行這個位置是否會受到衝擊也滿有趣的。

  • Martin, thank you very much.

    Martin ,非常感謝你。

  • It's a pleasure.

    很榮幸。

China has a hot new export market turmoil,

中國有個嶄新,熱門且轟動的新出口市場,

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馬丁-沃爾夫談中國資本管制|FT世界 (Martin Wolf on China capital controls | FT World)

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    Kristi Yang 發佈於 2021 年 01 月 14 日
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