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  • Once upon a time,

    很久以前

  • at the age of 24,

    當我24歲的時候

  • I was a student at St. John's Medical College in Bangalore.

    我是班加羅爾聖約翰醫學院的學生

  • I was a guest student during one month

    我那是是一個月的交換學生

  • of a public health course.

    研讀公共衛生的課程

  • And that changed my mindset forever.

    而那一個月徹底改變了我的心態

  • The course was good, but it was not the course content

    課程雖好,但使我心態改變的原因

  • in itself that changed the mindset.

    不是因爲授課内容

  • It was the brutal realization,

    而是第一個早上

  • the first morning,

    我殘酷地了解到

  • that the Indian students were better than me.

    印度學生竟然比我還好

  • (Laughter)

    (笑聲)

  • You see, I was a study nerd.

    以前的我是個書呆子

  • I loved statistics from a young age.

    從小就喜歡統計學

  • And I studied very much in Sweden.

    我在瑞典時也很用功

  • I used to be in the upper quarter of all courses I attended.

    在班上我一直是前幾名

  • But in St. John's, I was in the lower quarter.

    但是在聖約翰學院,我變成倒數的幾名

  • And the fact was that Indian students

    印度的學生

  • studied harder than we did in Sweden.

    都比瑞典的學生還要用功

  • They read the textbook twice,

    他們把教科書都唸兩遍

  • or three times or four times.

    三遍甚至四遍

  • In Sweden we read it once and then we went partying.

    在瑞典,我們唸完一遍就去玩了

  • (Laugher)

    (笑聲)

  • And that, to me,

    對我而言

  • that personal experience

    這樣子的個人體驗

  • was the first time in my life

    是我人生中第一次

  • that the mindset I grew up with

    使我固有的心態

  • was changed.

    被徹底改變

  • And I realized that perhaps

    同時我也領悟

  • the Western world will not continue

    或許西方世界將無法

  • to dominate the world forever.

    永遠主導全球

  • And I think many of you have the same sort of personal experience.

    我想你們大概都有過類似的經驗

  • It's that realization of someone you meet

    那種遇到某個人卻使你

  • that really made you change your ideas about the world.

    對這個世界的看法完全改觀

  • It's not the statistics, although I tried to make it funny.

    雖然我試著讓它聼起來有趣,但這不是統計學

  • And I will now,

    接下來我會

  • here, onstage,

    在這個台上

  • try to predict when that will happen --

    試著來預測

  • that Asia will regain

    什麽時候,亞洲會再奪回

  • its dominant position

    它的優勢地位

  • as the leading part of the world,

    來領導這個世界

  • as it used to be, over thousands of years.

    如同過去的幾千年那樣

  • And I will do that

    我並會試著

  • by trying to predict precisely

    準確地預測出

  • at what year

    在哪一年

  • the average income per person

    在印度與中國的個人平均所得

  • in India, in China, will reach that of the West.

    會趕上西方

  • And I don't mean the whole economy,

    我不是指總體經濟而言

  • because to grow an economy

    因爲要讓印度全國的經濟規模

  • of India to the size of U.K. --

    成長到像英國那麽大

  • that's a piece of cake, with one billion people.

    對有十億人口的印度而言是很容易的

  • But I want to see when will the average pay, the money

    我想看的是個人平均所得

  • for each person, per month,

    每一個人,每一個月

  • in India and China,

    在印度和在中國的收入

  • when will that have reached that of U.K. and the United States?

    幾時會跟英國和美國的水準一樣?

  • But I will start with a historical background.

    我會先介紹一些歷史背景

  • And you can see my map if I get it up here. You know?

    我把它掛上來的話你們可以看到我的圖吧?

  • I will start at 1858.

    我從1858年開始

  • 1858 was a year of great technological

    1858年在西方

  • advancement in the West.

    是有偉大科技進步的一年

  • That was the year when Queen Victoria

    在這一年,維多莉亞皇后

  • was able, for the first time, to communicate

    有史以來第一次能

  • with President Buchanan,

    跟美國的布坎南總統通訊

  • through the Transatlantic Telegraphic Cable.

    他們是透過大西洋底的電報纜來通訊

  • And they were the first to "Twitter" transatlantically.

    而且他們也是第一對橫跨大西洋使用"Twitter"的人

  • (Laughter)

    (笑聲)

  • (Applause)

    (掌聲)

  • And I've been able, through this wonderful Google and Internet,

    透過網路和 Google

  • to find the text of the telegram

    讓我找到了

  • sent back from President Buchanan to Queen Victoria.

    布坎南回送給維多利亞的電報内容

  • And it ends like this: "This telegraph

    最後一行說:這個電報

  • is a fantastic instrument to diffuse religion,

    將是一個神奇的工具

  • civilization, liberty and law throughout the world."

    可以用來向全世界傳播宗教、文明、自由、和法律。

  • Those are nice words. But I got sort of curious

    這些話是挺動聽的。但是我很好奇想知道

  • of what he meant with liberty, and liberty for whom.

    他說的自由是什麽意思,是誰的自由?

  • And we will think about that

    當我們更完整地看1858年的世界的話

  • when we look at the wider picture of the world in 1858.

    我們勢必會再想想。

  • Because 1858

    因爲1858年

  • was also watershed year

    在亞洲的歷史上

  • in the history of Asia.

    是個分水嶺

  • 1858 was the year

    在1858年

  • when the courageous uprising

    勇敢的印度人起義反抗

  • against the foreign occupation of India

    對抗外來的統治政權

  • was defeated by the British forces.

    卻被英國軍隊打敗

  • And India was up to 89 years more of foreign domination.

    使得印度又再忍受89年外國勢力的統治

  • 1858 in China

    1858年在中國

  • was the victory in the Opium War by the British forces.

    英國軍隊打勝了鴉片戰爭

  • And that meant that foreigners, as it said in the treaty,

    戰後的條約使得外國人

  • were allowed to trade freely in China.

    可以自由地在中國從事賣賣

  • It meant paying with opium for Chinese goods.

    他們用鴉片來買中國的物產

  • And 1858 in Japan

    1858年在日本

  • was the year when Japan had to sign the Harris Treaty

    簽署了哈里斯條約

  • and accept trade on favorable condition for the U.S.

    使得美國佔有貿易優勢

  • And they were threatened by those black ships there,

    之前一年,那些在東京港出現的黑船

  • that had been in Tokyo harbor over the last year.

    已使日本飽受威脅

  • But, Japan, in contrast to India and China,

    但是,跟印度和中國不同的是

  • maintained its national sovereignty.

    日本得以保持國家主權的完整

  • And let's see how much difference that can make.

    我們可以看看這在以後產生了什麽差異

  • And I will do that by bringing these bubbles

    我會用這些泡泡

  • back to a Gapminder graph here,

    在Gapminder圖上顯示

  • where you can see each bubble is a country.

    每一個泡泡代表的是一個國家

  • The size of the bubble here is the population.

    泡泡的大小表示國家人口

  • On this axis, as I used to have income per person in comparable dollar.

    在X軸,是換算成美元的人均收入

  • And on that axis I have life expectancy, the health of people.

    Y軸表示平均壽命,人民的健康

  • And I also bring an innovation here.

    在這兒,我也帶來了一點創新:

  • I have transformed the laser beam

    在這個綠色的印度,我已經把雷射光筆

  • into an ecological, recyclable version here, in green India.

    換成環保可回收的式樣了

  • (Applause)

    (掌聲)

  • And we will see, you know.

    我們將開始流覽,

  • Look here, 1858, India was here,

    看這裡,1858年的印度在這裡

  • China was here, Japan was there,

    中國在這裡,日本在那裏

  • United States and United Kingdom

    美國,英國

  • was richer over there.

    在那裏,他們比較有錢

  • And I will start the world like this.

    我從這裡開始世界

  • India was not always like this level.

    印度以前的水準不是一直這樣的

  • Actually if we go back into the historical record,

    我們如果回頭看看歷史的記載

  • there was a time hundreds of years ago

    幾百年前

  • when the income per person in India and China

    印度和中國的個人所得

  • was even above that of Europe.

    是在歐洲之上的

  • But 1850 had already been many, many years of foreign domination,

    但在1850年,已有很多年的外國勢力統治

  • and India had been de-industrialized.

    印度的工業生產能力被削減了

  • And you can see that the countries who were growing

    你可以看到那些經濟有所成長的國家

  • their economy was United States and United Kingdom.

    是美國及英國

  • And they were also, by the end of the century, getting healthy,

    而在世紀末時,他們的國民也更健康了

  • and Japan was starting to catch up.

    日本也開始急起直追

  • India was trying down here.

    印度還停留在下面

  • Can you see how it starts to move there?

    你看得到它是如何往那裏移動的嗎?

  • But really, really natural sovereignty was good for Japan.

    主權完整對日本來説是很有益的

  • And Japan is trying to move up there.

    日本一直往上移動

  • And it's the new century now. Health is getting better,

    進入新的世紀,國民健康越來越好

  • United Kingdom, United States.

    英國,美國

  • But careful now -- we are approaching the First World War.

    但是小心,我們現在接近第一次世界大戰

  • And the First World War, you know,

    第一次世界大戰,你也知道

  • we'll see a lot of deaths and economical problems here.

    我們會看到很多死亡和經濟問題

  • United Kingdom is going down.

    英國開始走下坡

  • And now comes the Spanish flu also.

    現在又有西班牙流感

  • And then after the First World War, they continue up.

    第一次世界大戰過後,他們持續上升

  • Still under foreign domination, and without sovereignty,

    仍然在外國政權的統治下,沒有獨立主權

  • India and China are down in the corner.

    印度和中國仍在下面的角落

  • Not much has happened.

    沒什麽大改變

  • They have grown their population but not much more.

    他們的人口有增加,此外就沒什麽變化

  • In the 1930's now, you can see

    到了1930年,你可以看到

  • that Japan is going to a period of war,

    日本在戰爭時期

  • with lower life expectancy.

    國民壽命不長

  • And the Second World War was really a terrible event,

    第二次世界大戰對日本來説是一段可怕的經歷

  • also economically for Japan.

    在經濟上也是如此

  • But they did recover quite fast afterwards.

    但戰後他們恢復得相當迅速

  • And we are moving into the new world.

    接下來我們進入了一個新世界

  • In 1947 India finally

    印度在1947年

  • gained its independence.

    終於獲得獨立了

  • And they could raise the Indian flag and become a sovereign nation,

    他們終於可以升上國旗,成為一個主權國家

  • but in very big difficulties down there.

    但是他們還是在停留在下面,舉步維艱

  • (Applause)

    (掌聲)

  • In 1949 we saw the emergence of the modern China

    在1949年,我們看到了新中國的誕生

  • in a way which surprised the world.

    這讓全世界都感到驚訝

  • And what happened?

    之後呢?

  • What happens in the after independence?

    新中國成立後發生什麽呢?

  • You can see that the health started to improve.

    你可以看到國民健康開始有進步

  • Children started to go to school.

    孩童開始去學校

  • Health services were provided.

    開始有醫療設施

  • This is the Great Leap Forward, when China fell down.

    而在大躍進時期,中國摔了一大跤

  • It was central planning by Mao Tse Tung.

    那是毛澤東的計畫經濟

  • China recovered. Then they said,

    中國恢復了以後,他們就說

  • "Nevermore, stupid central planning."

    “愚蠢的計畫經濟,以後別再搞了”

  • But they went up here, and India was trying to follow.

    中國開始往上,印度緊追在後

  • And they were catching up indeed.

    接著印度開始趕上

  • And both countries had the better health, but still

    兩個國家的國民健康都有所改善

  • a very low economy.

    但是經濟所得仍然不高

  • And we came to 1978, and Mao Tse Tung died,

    到1978年毛澤東死了