at the age of 24,

當我24歲的時候

I was a student at St. John's Medical College in Bangalore.

我是班加羅爾聖約翰醫學院的學生

I was a guest student during one month

我那是是一個月的交換學生

of a public health course.

研讀公共衛生的課程

And that changed my mindset forever.

而那一個月徹底改變了我的心態

The course was good, but it was not the course content

課程雖好，但使我心態改變的原因

in itself that changed the mindset.

不是因爲授課内容

It was the brutal realization,

而是第一個早上

the first morning,

我殘酷地了解到

that the Indian students were better than me.

印度學生竟然比我還好

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

You see, I was a study nerd.

以前的我是個書呆子

I loved statistics from a young age.

從小就喜歡統計學

And I studied very much in Sweden.

我在瑞典時也很用功

I used to be in the upper quarter of all courses I attended.

在班上我一直是前幾名

But in St. John's, I was in the lower quarter.

但是在聖約翰學院，我變成倒數的幾名

And the fact was that Indian students

印度的學生

studied harder than we did in Sweden.

都比瑞典的學生還要用功

They read the textbook twice,

他們把教科書都唸兩遍

or three times or four times.

三遍甚至四遍

In Sweden we read it once and then we went partying.

在瑞典，我們唸完一遍就去玩了

(Laugher)

（笑聲）

And that, to me,

對我而言

that personal experience

這樣子的個人體驗

was the first time in my life

是我人生中第一次

that the mindset I grew up with

使我固有的心態

was changed.

被徹底改變

And I realized that perhaps

同時我也領悟

the Western world will not continue

或許西方世界將無法

to dominate the world forever.

永遠主導全球

And I think many of you have the same sort of personal experience.

我想你們大概都有過類似的經驗

It's that realization of someone you meet

那種遇到某個人卻使你

that really made you change your ideas about the world.

對這個世界的看法完全改觀

It's not the statistics, although I tried to make it funny.

雖然我試著讓它聼起來有趣，但這不是統計學

And I will now,

接下來我會

here, onstage,

在這個台上

try to predict when that will happen --

試著來預測

that Asia will regain

什麽時候，亞洲會再奪回

its dominant position

它的優勢地位

as the leading part of the world,

來領導這個世界

as it used to be, over thousands of years.

如同過去的幾千年那樣

And I will do that

我並會試著

by trying to predict precisely

準確地預測出

at what year

在哪一年

the average income per person

在印度與中國的個人平均所得

in India, in China, will reach that of the West.

會趕上西方

And I don't mean the whole economy,

我不是指總體經濟而言

because to grow an economy

因爲要讓印度全國的經濟規模

of India to the size of U.K. --

成長到像英國那麽大

that's a piece of cake, with one billion people.

對有十億人口的印度而言是很容易的

But I want to see when will the average pay, the money

我想看的是個人平均所得

for each person, per month,

每一個人，每一個月

in India and China,

在印度和在中國的收入

when will that have reached that of U.K. and the United States?

幾時會跟英國和美國的水準一樣？

But I will start with a historical background.

我會先介紹一些歷史背景

And you can see my map if I get it up here. You know?

我把它掛上來的話你們可以看到我的圖吧？

I will start at 1858.

我從1858年開始

1858 was a year of great technological

1858年在西方

advancement in the West.

是有偉大科技進步的一年

That was the year when Queen Victoria

在這一年，維多莉亞皇后

was able, for the first time, to communicate

有史以來第一次能

with President Buchanan,

跟美國的布坎南總統通訊

through the Transatlantic Telegraphic Cable.

他們是透過大西洋底的電報纜來通訊

And they were the first to "Twitter" transatlantically.

而且他們也是第一對橫跨大西洋使用"Twitter"的人

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

(Applause)

（掌聲）

And I've been able, through this wonderful Google and Internet,

透過網路和 Google

to find the text of the telegram

讓我找到了

sent back from President Buchanan to Queen Victoria.

布坎南回送給維多利亞的電報内容

And it ends like this: "This telegraph

最後一行說：這個電報

is a fantastic instrument to diffuse religion,

將是一個神奇的工具

civilization, liberty and law throughout the world."

可以用來向全世界傳播宗教、文明、自由、和法律。

Those are nice words. But I got sort of curious

這些話是挺動聽的。但是我很好奇想知道

of what he meant with liberty, and liberty for whom.

他說的自由是什麽意思，是誰的自由？

And we will think about that

當我們更完整地看1858年的世界的話

when we look at the wider picture of the world in 1858.

我們勢必會再想想。

Because 1858

因爲1858年

was also watershed year

在亞洲的歷史上

in the history of Asia.

是個分水嶺

1858 was the year

在1858年

when the courageous uprising

勇敢的印度人起義反抗

against the foreign occupation of India

對抗外來的統治政權

was defeated by the British forces.

卻被英國軍隊打敗

And India was up to 89 years more of foreign domination.

使得印度又再忍受89年外國勢力的統治

1858 in China

1858年在中國

was the victory in the Opium War by the British forces.

英國軍隊打勝了鴉片戰爭

And that meant that foreigners, as it said in the treaty,

戰後的條約使得外國人

were allowed to trade freely in China.

可以自由地在中國從事賣賣

It meant paying with opium for Chinese goods.

他們用鴉片來買中國的物產

And 1858 in Japan

1858年在日本

was the year when Japan had to sign the Harris Treaty

簽署了哈里斯條約

and accept trade on favorable condition for the U.S.

使得美國佔有貿易優勢

And they were threatened by those black ships there,

之前一年，那些在東京港出現的黑船

that had been in Tokyo harbor over the last year.

已使日本飽受威脅

But, Japan, in contrast to India and China,

但是，跟印度和中國不同的是

maintained its national sovereignty.

日本得以保持國家主權的完整

And let's see how much difference that can make.

我們可以看看這在以後產生了什麽差異

And I will do that by bringing these bubbles

我會用這些泡泡

back to a Gapminder graph here,

在Gapminder圖上顯示

where you can see each bubble is a country.

每一個泡泡代表的是一個國家

The size of the bubble here is the population.

泡泡的大小表示國家人口

On this axis, as I used to have income per person in comparable dollar.

在X軸，是換算成美元的人均收入

And on that axis I have life expectancy, the health of people.

Y軸表示平均壽命，人民的健康

And I also bring an innovation here.

在這兒，我也帶來了一點創新：

I have transformed the laser beam

在這個綠色的印度，我已經把雷射光筆

into an ecological, recyclable version here, in green India.

換成環保可回收的式樣了

(Applause)

（掌聲）

And we will see, you know.

我們將開始流覽，

Look here, 1858, India was here,

看這裡，1858年的印度在這裡

China was here, Japan was there,

中國在這裡，日本在那裏

United States and United Kingdom

美國，英國

was richer over there.

在那裏，他們比較有錢

And I will start the world like this.

我從這裡開始世界

India was not always like this level.

印度以前的水準不是一直這樣的

Actually if we go back into the historical record,

我們如果回頭看看歷史的記載

there was a time hundreds of years ago

幾百年前

when the income per person in India and China

印度和中國的個人所得

was even above that of Europe.

是在歐洲之上的

But 1850 had already been many, many years of foreign domination,

但在1850年，已有很多年的外國勢力統治

and India had been de-industrialized.

印度的工業生產能力被削減了

And you can see that the countries who were growing

你可以看到那些經濟有所成長的國家

their economy was United States and United Kingdom.

是美國及英國

And they were also, by the end of the century, getting healthy,

而在世紀末時，他們的國民也更健康了

and Japan was starting to catch up.

日本也開始急起直追

India was trying down here.

印度還停留在下面

Can you see how it starts to move there?

你看得到它是如何往那裏移動的嗎？

But really, really natural sovereignty was good for Japan.

主權完整對日本來説是很有益的

And Japan is trying to move up there.

日本一直往上移動

And it's the new century now. Health is getting better,

進入新的世紀，國民健康越來越好

United Kingdom, United States.

英國，美國

But careful now -- we are approaching the First World War.

但是小心，我們現在接近第一次世界大戰

And the First World War, you know,

第一次世界大戰，你也知道

we'll see a lot of deaths and economical problems here.

我們會看到很多死亡和經濟問題

United Kingdom is going down.

英國開始走下坡

And now comes the Spanish flu also.

現在又有西班牙流感

And then after the First World War, they continue up.

第一次世界大戰過後，他們持續上升

Still under foreign domination, and without sovereignty,

仍然在外國政權的統治下，沒有獨立主權

India and China are down in the corner.

印度和中國仍在下面的角落

Not much has happened.

沒什麽大改變

They have grown their population but not much more.

他們的人口有增加，此外就沒什麽變化

In the 1930's now, you can see

到了1930年，你可以看到

that Japan is going to a period of war,

日本在戰爭時期

with lower life expectancy.

國民壽命不長

And the Second World War was really a terrible event,

第二次世界大戰對日本來説是一段可怕的經歷

also economically for Japan.

在經濟上也是如此

But they did recover quite fast afterwards.

但戰後他們恢復得相當迅速

And we are moving into the new world.

接下來我們進入了一個新世界

In 1947 India finally

印度在1947年

gained its independence.

終於獲得獨立了

And they could raise the Indian flag and become a sovereign nation,

他們終於可以升上國旗，成為一個主權國家

but in very big difficulties down there.

但是他們還是在停留在下面，舉步維艱

(Applause)

（掌聲）

In 1949 we saw the emergence of the modern China

在1949年，我們看到了新中國的誕生

in a way which surprised the world.

這讓全世界都感到驚訝

And what happened?

之後呢？

What happens in the after independence?

新中國成立後發生什麽呢？

You can see that the health started to improve.

你可以看到國民健康開始有進步

Children started to go to school.

孩童開始去學校

Health services were provided.

開始有醫療設施

This is the Great Leap Forward, when China fell down.

而在大躍進時期，中國摔了一大跤

It was central planning by Mao Tse Tung.

那是毛澤東的計畫經濟

China recovered. Then they said,

中國恢復了以後，他們就說

"Nevermore, stupid central planning."

“愚蠢的計畫經濟，以後別再搞了”

But they went up here, and India was trying to follow.

中國開始往上，印度緊追在後

And they were catching up indeed.

接著印度開始趕上

And both countries had the better health, but still

兩個國家的國民健康都有所改善

a very low economy.

但是經濟所得仍然不高

And we came to 1978, and Mao Tse Tung died,

到1978年毛澤東死了