After a torrid start to the year, investors are starting to question the strength in the longevity of the European stock market.

在今年火熱的開局後，投資人開始質疑歐洲股市長紅的實力。

We've had a bull run for several years now, but things are starting to look a little difficult.

我們已有牛市好些年了，但事情開始看似變得有些困難。

To join us to discuss this today, we have Barry Norris, head of the Argonaut absolute return funds.

我們有 Barry Norris ， Argonaut 絕對回報基金的領導人，參與今天的討論。

Thanks for joining us, Barry. Pleasure.

Barry，謝謝你的參與。我的榮幸。

Now so you were back in 2009, so bullish about the market, that you took out a billboard ad, advertising how confident you were

所以早在 2009 年時，你因為太看好市場而拿出告示牌廣告，表示你有多自信滿滿。

Well, certainly in 2009 we felt it was a once-in-a-decade opportunity to invest in the asset class

嗯，在 2009 年我們的確認為那是一個十年一見，可以投資資產類別的機緣。

That's been proven to be correct stop European stock markets have roughly doubled from that point,

這證明了在那個時間點，歐洲股市大致翻了一倍，

but I think the main source of the return certainly since 2010 has been re-rating which is be very dependent on global liquidity.

但我認為回報的主因絕對是自從 2010 年的價值重估，這非常仰賴全球流動性。

But re-rating you mean sort of the price, the valuation which investors are prepared to put on stocks has gone up a lot rather than the underlying earnings.

但是你價值重估的意思是指某個價位，那種投資人準備在股票上所做的估值，比潛在的收益還要高出許多。

Absolutely, so back in 2009, you can see the global economy was bottomed out.

當然，所以早在 2009 年，你就看到全球經濟已走出谷底。

Corporate profit margins were very very low and as a result we saw market earnings rebound by about 40 percent in 2010.

企業的利潤空間是相當低的，這也是我們看到市場的盈利在 2010 年反彈約 40％ 的原因。

And we can see this in the chart here. Absolutely. So the blue columns show the valuation of the market; the red line we've got running across which has been flat for a long time.

我們可以看這張表。當然。所以藍色框框指出市場估價，而我們看到的紅線則已經長時間都處於扁平的狀態。

That shows expectations for earnings in the year ahead at any moments. Absolutely.

那表示今年收益的預期在任何時刻都十分高。當然。

And the evaluation is that green line. So what happens?

而那條綠線則是評估。所以會發生什麼呢？

So 2010 40 percent rebounding in market earnings of the sea

所以 2010 年的市場收益從 40% 回彈，

regaining some of the aggregate level in 2007 before the down

2007 年在低谷前回復一些總體水平，

but since 2010 we've seen the flat-lining corporate earnings in Europe, the mix has changed

*但自 2010 年我們看到歐洲某些企業財報都處在扁平的線上，似乎是有些變化

So in the last two or three years we've seen the recovery in domestic Europe whilst those geared towards emerging markets commodities are seen a fall off earnings.

因此，在過去的兩三年裡，我們已看到歐洲國內的復甦，而那些新興市場的日用品都出現收益的落差。

Nevertheless markets earnings as a whole flat-lining really for the last five years.

無論如何，市場收益在過去五年都呈現完全的扁平。

So we had a recovering stock prices but not really the underlying profits by the company. Absolutely.

所以我們有復甦的股價，但並不是企業的基礎利潤。是的。

Valuations have gone up but corporate profits haven't.

估值水漲船高的同時企業利潤並沒有。

And certainly as an equity investors that makes me a little bit uneasy, I would rather invest in the market where profits are growing rather than just valuation is becoming more expensive.

當然作為一個股票投資人這讓我有點不安，我寧願投資在利潤增長的市場中，而不僅僅是估值變得昂貴的狀態下。

And I think you've got another chart here, which shows sort of what type of investing has worked in the last few years.

我想你有在這裡有另一張表，顯是哪幾種類型的投資在過去幾年發展得不錯。

Yeah absolutely so if we move to this graph here, which basically shows growth investing as an ideology versus value in that as an ideology.

的確，若我們看向這圖表，這基本上顯示成長型投資對比價值上是個理想狀態。

So put crudely a growth manager will invest in high-quality companies, maybe they've got competitive advantages, strong balance sheet, good management etc.

因此大體說來，注重成長的經理將投資於優質企業，也許他們有競爭優勢、強勁的資產負債表、良好的管理等等。

A value manager will look for cheapness. Yes.

一個注重價值的會著重在便宜性。是。

And so since the financial crisis, growth managers have significantly outperformed value managers.

所以自從金融危機開始，成長型經理明顯地超越價值型經理的表現。

We would argue that is because the market for corporate earnings has been so difficult.

我們會認為這是因為要在企業獲利市場生存變得困難。

The factors that growth managers always look for are high-quality companies, strong balance sheet, free cash flow high return on equity

成長型經理總看向優質公司的因素，資產負債狀況穩健，淨資產自由現金流高回報

have been rewarded more in this cycle down slightly in the previous cycle when they did very poorly

當他們表現相當差時，比起之前的周期，現在這個週期稍微得到了更多

because it has been a such a difficult environment for corporate profits in general

因為整體上企業獲利身處這個如此困難的環境

and generally the more difficult the economic environment,

對經濟環境也益發困難，

the more competitive advantage, and the more investing in high-quality companies is linked to the ability to generate profit growth.

越大的經濟優勢就代表投資優質企業建立經濟利潤的能力與之相關。

So 7 years ago you were very bullish. Yeah.

所以七年之前你可以說是非常厲害。是啊。

Now is it a question that you just think value is going to come back into focus or are you negative on the outlook for the stock market as a whole.

現在你認為價值回到重心是個問題，還是你對整體股市的前景是悲觀的呢？

I think the next six months at least they're gonna be very very tough.

我認為至下在下六個月，他們將過得十分艱難。

This re-rating that we've seen equity has basically been correlated to bond yields coming down.

這我們看到的價值重估，基本上因為相關債券的收益率而下降。

and it bond yields are no longer coming down because the liquidity is being withdrawn

而且債券收益率不再下降，因為流動性已被收回

then I think you won't get that re-rating in the equity market.

因此我認為你不會得到價值重估的股市。

Thank you very much for joining us Barry.So it looks like a turbulent start to the year and some very difficult times lie ahead.

非常感謝 Barry 你加入我們。看來這將是一個動盪的開局，而還有些困境在眼前。