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  • What do we know about the future?

    我們對於未來瞭解多少呢?

  • Difficult question, simple answer: nothing.

    這問題很難,但答案很簡單︰「一無所知」

  • We cannot predict the future.

    我們無法預知未來。

  • We only can create a vision of the future, how it might be, a vision which reveals disruptive ideas, which is inspiring,

    我們只能給未來一個願景,去想像未來的樣子富有破壞性,創新的願景能激發靈感,

  • and this is the most important reason which breaks the chains of common thinking.

    這就是打破一連串平凡無奇思維的重要原因。

  • There are a lot of people who created their own vision about the future, for instance, this vision here from the early 20th century.

    有許多人創造出他們自己心中未來的樣貌,例如,這是廿世紀初期的願景。

  • It says here that this is the ocean plane of the future.

    在未來有種越洋的飛機。

  • It takes only one and a half days to cross the Atlantic Ocean.

    只需要一天半就能橫越大西洋。

  • Today, we know that this future vision didn't come true.

    今天我們知道這種想像並沒有成真。

  • So this is our largest airplane which we have, the Airbus A380, and it's quite huge, so a lot of people fit in there and it's technically completely different than the vision I've shown to you.

    而這是現今最大的飛機空中巴士 A380,非常龐大,能夠乘載許多人,而在技術上完全不同於剛剛給你們看過的想像圖。

  • I'm working in a team with Airbus, and we have created our vision about a more sustainable future of aviation.

    我在空中巴士裡的一個團隊創造一個我們的願景,能永續經營的航空事業。

  • So sustainability is quite important for us, which should incorporate social but as well as environmental and economic values.

    永續對我們很重要,這不僅應與社會價值聯結,亦應與環保和經濟價值聯結。

  • So we have created a very disruptive structure which mimics the design of bone, or a skeleton, which occurs in nature.

    所以我們創造了一種顛覆性的結構,這仿效了大自然中骨頭或骨骼的設計。

  • So that's why it looks maybe a little bit weird, especially to the people who deal with structures in general.

    因此這個可能看起來有點奇怪,尤其對於那些了解結構的人。

  • But at least it's just a kind of artwork to explore our ideas about a different future.

    但至少這像是一件藝術品,是對於不同未來的一種探索。

  • What are the main customers of the future?

    未來的乘客會是什麼樣子的?

  • So, we have the old, we have the youngs, we have the uprising power of women, and there's one mega-trend which affects all of us.

    有年邁的、有年輕的、我們有日益升高的女性勢力,還有一個影響所有人的重大趨勢 。

  • These are the future anthropometrics.

    這是未來的人體體態。

  • So our children are getting larger, but at the same time we are growing into different directions.

    小孩的身形愈來愈大,但同時我們也向不同的方向成長 。

  • So what we need is space inside the aircraft, inside a very dense area.

    所以我們需要在非常擁擠的機艙裡有更大的空間 。

  • These people have different needs.

    這些人們有不同的需求。

  • So we see a clear need of active health promotion, especially in the case of the old people.

    所以我們看到積極推廣健康的明確需求,尤其是老年人。

  • We want to be treated as individuals.

    我們希望有量身訂做的特別禮遇。

  • We like to be productive throughout the entire travel chain, and what we are doing in the future is we want to use the latest man-machine interface,

    我們希望整個旅程是富有成效的,而我們正在做的就是在未來應用最新的人機介面,

  • and we want to integrate this and show this in one product.

    而且把這些全部整合在單一產品中。

  • So we combined these needs with technology's themes.

    所以我們以科技的題材結合所有的需求。

  • So for instance, we are asking ourselves, how can we create more light?

    例如,我們自問要如何產生更多的光?

  • How can we bring more natural light into the airplane?

    如何在機艙內有更多的自然光?

  • So this airplane has no windows anymore, for example.

    以這飛機為例,它不再有窗戶的設計。

  • What about the data and communication software which we need in the future?

    在未來我們需要哪些資訊和通訊軟體呢?

  • My belief is that the airplane of the future will get its own consciousness.

    我相信未來的飛機會有自己的意識 。

  • It will be more like a living organism than just a collection of very complex technology.

    它會更像是一個生命有機體,而不是只是複雜工程的集合體。

  • This will be very different in the future.

    這在將來是非常大的改變。

  • It will communicate directly with the passenger in its environment.

    它會直接與機上的乘客交流。

  • And then we are talking also about materials, synthetic biology, for example.

    再談到材枓像是合成生物學 。

  • And my belief is that we will get more and more new materials which we can put into structure later on, because structure is one of the key issues in aircraft design.

    我相信接下來我們會有愈來愈多應用在結構上的新材料,因為結構是飛機最關鍵的設計之一。

  • So let's compare the old world with the new world.

    讓我們比較一下新舊兩種世界。

  • I just want to show you here what we are doing today.

    讓你們看看我們的作法。

  • So, this is a bracket of an A380 crew rest compartment.

    這是 A380 機組員休息艙的框架。

  • It takes a lot of weight, and it follows the classical design rules.

    以傳統銑床方式設計,重量很重。

  • This here is an equal bracket for the same purpose.

    而這裡是同樣功能的框架。

  • It follows the design of bone.

    但利用骨骼的設計方式。

  • The design process is completely different.

    設計過程是完全的不同。

  • At the one hand, we have 1.2 kilos, and at the other hand 0.6 kilos.

    一個是 1.2 公斤而另一個僅有 0.6 公斤 。

  • So this technology, 3D printing, and new design rules really help us to reduce the weight,

    這 3D 列印技術和新的設計方式確實幫助我們減輕了重量,

  • which is the biggest issue in aircraft design, because it's directly linked to greenhouse gas emissions.

    重量是設計飛機時最重要的議題,因為這和溫室氣體排放量有直接關係。

  • Push this idea a little bit forward.

    將這個想法加以延伸。

  • So, how does nature build its components and structures?

    大自然如何建造它的元件和結構呢?

  • So nature is very clever. It puts all the information into these small building blocks, which we call DNA.

    大自然很聰明,把所有的資訊全部放進一個小小的結構單元中,我們稱之為 DNA 。

  • And nature builds large skeletons out of it.

    而大自然利用 DNA 建造大型的骨架。

  • So, we see a bottom-up approach here, because all the information, as I said, are inside the DNA.

    所以我們在這裡看到「由單元到總體」的模式正如我說的,因為所有的訊息都在 DNA 當中 。

  • And this is combined with a top-down approach, because what we are doing in our daily life is we train our muscles, we train our skeleton, and it's getting stronger.

    而這也結合了「由總體到單元」的模式,因為我們在每天的生活中,我們鍛鍊肌肉和骨骼,使其愈發強壯。

  • And the same approach can be applied to technology as well.

    同樣的模式可以應用在工程中。

  • So, our building block is carbon nanotubes, for example, to create a large, rivet-less skeleton at the end of the day.

    例如,我們以碳奈米管為結構元件用來完成建造一個無鉚釘的巨大骨架。

  • How this looks in particular, you can show it here.

    以下你可以看見這是如何辦到的。

  • So imagine you have carbon nanotubes growing inside a 3D printer,

    想像碳奈米管在 3D 印表機裡生成 ,

  • and they are embedded inside a matrix of plastic, and follow the forces which appear in your component.

    嵌在一個塑膠的模型內順著組件中的施力延伸。

  • And you've got trillions of them.

    數以兆計的碳奈米管。

  • So you really align them to wood, and you take this wood and make morphological optimization,

    如森林般地聚結在一起利用這群「森林」作形態上的最佳化 ,

  • so you make structures, sub-structures, which allows you to transmit electrical energy or data.

    可以用來當作傳輸電能或資訊的結構或次結構 。

  • And now we take this material, combine this with a top-down approach, and build bigger and bigger components.

    我們拿這個材料結合「由總體到單元」的模式,造出更巨大的元件。

  • So, how does the airplane of the future might look?

    所以,未來的飛機會是什麼樣子?

  • So ,we have very different seats which adapt to the shape of the future passenger, with the different anthropometrics.

    我們有非常特別的座椅,可以配合不同身形的乘客。

  • We have social areas inside the aircraft which might turn into a place where you can play virtual golf.

    我們在飛機上可以有社交的空間,像是騰出一個區域打虛擬高爾夫球。

  • And finally, this bionic structure, which is covered by a transparent biopolymer membrane, will really change radically how we look at aircrafts in the future.

    最後,這個覆蓋著一種透明生物高分子膜的仿生物結構將會徹底地改變我們看待未來飛機的方式。

  • So, as Jason Silva said, if we can imagine it, why not doing so?

    如 Jason Silva 所言:「既然我們可以想像,那何不讓它成真?」

  • See you in the future. Thank you.

    期待在未來與你相見,謝謝。

What do we know about the future?

我們對於未來瞭解多少呢?

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B1 中級 中文 TED 結構 飛機 設計 乘客 單元

【TED】3D列印未來飛機 (Bastian Schaefer: A 3D-printed jumbo jet?) (【TED】Bastian Schaefer: A 3D-printed jumbo jet? (Bastian Schaefer: A 3D-printed jumbo jet?))

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    Max Lin 發佈於 2021 年 06 月 02 日
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