surpassing even the lows reached during the depths of the financial crisis.

甚至比金融危機時還要低

It's currently trading at $36 a barrel, down more than 70% in the past eighteen months.

現在一桶36美元，比過去18個月低了百分之七十

Well, the answer to that question is a seemingly relentless surge in production from OPEC and non-OPEC producers.

這麼答案嘛，從表面上看似乎石油輸出組織和非石油輸出國組織成員的石油產量仍堅穩地上升

Goldman Sachs, possibly the most influential banking commodity markets,

高盛集團，堪稱最具影響力的銀行商品市場

reckoned supply outstripped demand by 1.5 million barrels a day in the fourth quarter of this year.

估計今年第四季的供應量會比需求量每天多150萬桶原油

Well ominously, Goldman believes the market will remain significantly oversupplied in 2016,

這是不祥的預兆，高盛集團認為到2016年市場仍會維持明顯的供過於求

as output production remains high and demand growth softens as the impact of lower prices at the petrol pump for example, weigh in.

因為供給維持高產量，而需求成長則受低價影響而緩和，舉例來說，汽油價格下降的影響

The market may also have to contend with the possibility of increased production from Iran if sanctions linked to its nuclear program are lifted.

市場或許也必須同伊朗可能增長的產量競爭，如果對他們的核子計畫制裁解除的話

This could add more than 500,000 barrels a day to the market, and perhaps even more.

這會讓市場一天的原油供應量多超過50萬桶，甚至可能會更多

Said against that, leading forecasters such as the International Energy Agency do expected to decline in non-OPEC production next year.

然而，具領導性的預測單位像是國際能源機構，認為明年非石油國家組織成員國的產量會下降

It reckoned supply could fall by as much as 600,000 barrels a day,

預測供應量最多會降至一天60萬桶原油

as the impact of lower prices starts to impact activity, particularly in the US shale industry.

因低油價而影響產出，特別是對美國的頁岩產業

It's possible then that prices could pick up in the second half of next year from their current depressed levels,

油價在明年第二季可能會從現今的低潮再上升

but much will depend on production levels, and no one should expect OPEC to cut supply.

但這都要看產量的多寡而定，也沒人期待看到石油輸出組織減少供應

At its last meeting earlier this month the cartel resisted all calls for production restraint

在月初最新的一次會議中，石油聯合企業抵制所有要求限制產量的呼聲

and vowed to keep on pumping, intensifying a battle for market share.

誓言將繼續抽取石油，深化了市場佔有率的鬥爭

So as we look to 2016, the adjustment in the oil market is going to have to come from outside of OPEC,

所以來看看2016年的話，石油市場的調整將會來自非石油輸出國

and that might require even lower prices to force producers

可能導致更低的石油價格，迫使石油生產企業

who are currently hanging on by their fingernails out of the market.

那些目前苟延殘喘的生產商退出市場

Goldman reckons prices could have to go as low as $20 a barrel, a scenario few people are now discounting.

高盛集團估計油價可能必須再降至一桶20美元，現在沒有多少人會否定這樣的事情會發生了