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  • Hello, welcome back to the Note. Back in New York today where it's been a busy day.

    哈囉,歡迎回到財經筆記。紐約股市今天也是忙碌的一天

  • Now perhaps the biggest headlines surrounded the US stock market and oil.

    或許現在最大頭條無非不是美國股市和石油價格

  • We saw another day of sharp directions in the oil price that spooked the stock market. The S&P 500 is now down for the year.

    油價大跌嚇壞了整個股市。標準普爾500指數目前也跟著下降

  • Now it's popular to blame almost all of what's happened to the stock market on the energy sector, and there is some reason for that.

    許多人將股市的慘況歸咎於能源部近日公布的數據,確實這也是部份原因之一

  • But, as this chart shows, that can be very much overdone. The green line there is the S&P 500. Energy sector obviously had a horrible time of it this year,

    但如圖表所示,這有點太過度指責能源部。綠色線為標準普爾500指數。很明顯,這是今年能源部的低潮

  • investors really haven't expected oil to..., the oil price to say where it is.

    投資客們真的也沒有想到石油會...,油價會如此慘跌

  • But if you then look at that red line there, which is the S&P 500 excluding the energy companies, you can see yes it is just about positive for the year.

    然而如果我們看看紅色線,是排除能源公司之後的標準普爾500指數,就會覺得今年股市滿樂觀的

  • But it's very much of thoroughly unexciting year that's been had by the rest of the US stock market,

    但除去能源,美國股市會是相當平淡的一年

  • many of which, many of the stocks in that index, exclude the energy, would of course benefit significantly from cheaper oil.

    而這當中大部分的股票,不包含能源,都會因油價變便宜而獲利

  • So you still plainly have to contend with the fact that the US stock market is not in the greatest of health even if you discount the effect of oil.

    所以就美國股市現況來看,即便油價下跌也並非處於最佳狀態

  • Now, elsewhere we saw the Dollar weaken quite considerably against the Euro.

    此外,美元幣值大幅下降,兌換歐元變得不利

  • That was without any big move in the bond market. There without any shift in the expectations for the Fed for next week.

    這是先不看國債的任何變化而論。也尚未考慮下週聯準會是否會有任何變動

  • Still, it seemed there's a raising certainty the Fed will be raising rates.

    雖說聯準會升息之舉幾乎是可以肯定的

  • Meanwhile, you also saw the Dollar strengthened against emerging market currencies,

    同時,美元兌換新興市場幣值上漲

  • spectacularly so in the case in the South African rents. Emerging market currencies in general on that

    特別是對南非地區。新興市場的幣值整體來說

  • will beginning to fall quite close to the levels that had been in September which prompted the Fed to decide not to go through with the rate rise then.

    將會下降至九月時的情況,而那時也導致聯準會決定暫且不升息

  • Perhaps most importantly for the long term, however, I'd like to show you this chart, carrying up which is of the Chinese currency.

    就長期來說最重要的或許是,來看看這張圖表,顯示中國幣值情形

  • Obviously the single scariest moment as far as many in world market would concern of 2015

    一眼就能看出最震驚全球市場的時刻,也是2015年許多國家的憂慮

  • was when the Chinese allowed their currency to devalue very sharply by its own standards in the middle of August.

    就是八月中旬時,中國政府決定讓人民幣大幅下降至標準範圍內

  • The currency would steadily managed stronger for couple of months up to that. You can see it in the last few days.

    中國幣值至此之後穩定成長。來看看過去這幾天

  • It has been allowed to fall once more. It is now significantly weaker than was on the day of all that excitement back in August.

    又再次調降幣值。比之前八月時更加疲弱

  • It makes eminent sense for the Chinese to allow their currency to devalue.

    中國調降幣值之舉確實有著充分理由

  • If they want to become more of the market, that currency become an elective part of the SDRs run by the IMF

    如果他們想讓自己在市場上具更大影響力,讓人民幣納入國際貨幣組織的特別款權貨幣籃之中

  • plainly makes more sense for them to follow the market, which would imply a weaker Chinese currency.

    顯然中國為成為市場一部分,此舉相當合理,也暗示著人民幣將變得更加疲弱

  • Obviously, a weaker Chinese currency would have very intriguing effects for the rest of the world.

    更用不著說,人民幣調降對全球其他國家而言相當具吸引力

  • Let's expect this is one to watch.

    就讓我們看看這在未來會如何發展。

Hello, welcome back to the Note. Back in New York today where it's been a busy day.

哈囉,歡迎回到財經筆記。紐約股市今天也是忙碌的一天

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    Kristi Yang 發佈於 2021 年 01 月 14 日
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