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  • Hello, welcome back to the Note. Back in New York today where it's been a busy day.


  • Now perhaps the biggest headlines surrounded the US stock market and oil.


  • We saw another day of sharp directions in the oil price that spooked the stock market. The S&P 500 is now down for the year.


  • Now it's popular to blame almost all of what's happened to the stock market on the energy sector, and there is some reason for that.


  • But, as this chart shows, that can be very much overdone. The green line there is the S&P 500. Energy sector obviously had a horrible time of it this year,


  • investors really haven't expected oil to..., the oil price to say where it is.


  • But if you then look at that red line there, which is the S&P 500 excluding the energy companies, you can see yes it is just about positive for the year.


  • But it's very much of thoroughly unexciting year that's been had by the rest of the US stock market,


  • many of which, many of the stocks in that index, exclude the energy, would of course benefit significantly from cheaper oil.


  • So you still plainly have to contend with the fact that the US stock market is not in the greatest of health even if you discount the effect of oil.


  • Now, elsewhere we saw the Dollar weaken quite considerably against the Euro.


  • That was without any big move in the bond market. There without any shift in the expectations for the Fed for next week.


  • Still, it seemed there's a raising certainty the Fed will be raising rates.


  • Meanwhile, you also saw the Dollar strengthened against emerging market currencies,


  • spectacularly so in the case in the South African rents. Emerging market currencies in general on that


  • will beginning to fall quite close to the levels that had been in September which prompted the Fed to decide not to go through with the rate rise then.


  • Perhaps most importantly for the long term, however, I'd like to show you this chart, carrying up which is of the Chinese currency.


  • Obviously the single scariest moment as far as many in world market would concern of 2015


  • was when the Chinese allowed their currency to devalue very sharply by its own standards in the middle of August.


  • The currency would steadily managed stronger for couple of months up to that. You can see it in the last few days.


  • It has been allowed to fall once more. It is now significantly weaker than was on the day of all that excitement back in August.


  • It makes eminent sense for the Chinese to allow their currency to devalue.


  • If they want to become more of the market, that currency become an elective part of the SDRs run by the IMF


  • plainly makes more sense for them to follow the market, which would imply a weaker Chinese currency.


  • Obviously, a weaker Chinese currency would have very intriguing effects for the rest of the world.


  • Let's expect this is one to watch.


Hello, welcome back to the Note. Back in New York today where it's been a busy day.



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    Kristi Yang 發佈於 2021 年 01 月 14 日