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  • Translator: Joseph Geni Reviewer: Morton Bast

    當數以千萬計的勞工

  • As it turns out, when tens of millions of people

    處於失業或是低度就業的狀況發生時

  • are unemployed or underemployed,

    就會有不少人會對科技如何影響勞工這個議題有興趣

  • there's a fair amount of interest in what technology might be doing to the labor force.

    而當我開始檢視這個議題, 赫然發現

  • And as I look at the conversation, it strikes me

    大家關切的主題是正確的

  • that it's focused on exactly the right topic,

    但又同時全然的地忽視了關鍵要點。

  • and at the same time, it's missing the point entirely.

    在這個主題上所提出的問題, 是關於

  • The topic that it's focused on, the question is whether or not

    這些數位科技是否影響了人們謀生的能力?

  • all these digital technologies are affecting people's ability

    或者, 換個說法就是

  • to earn a living, or, to say it a little bit different way,

    機器人是否正在搶走人類的工作機會?

  • are the droids taking our jobs?

    有一些證據顯示的確如此

  • And there's some evidence that they are.

    大蕭條(2008~2012)結束時, 美國的 GDP 恢復了

  • The Great Recession ended when American GDP resumed

    緩慢步調的上昇, 其他的一些

  • its kind of slow, steady march upward, and some other

    經濟指標也開始反彈,看起來

  • economic indicators also started to rebound, and they got

    比較健康也比較迅速了。企業的獲利

  • kind of healthy kind of quickly. Corporate profits

    是相當高的。事實上,如果把銀行業也包含進來

  • are quite high. In fact, if you include bank profits,

    這些數值比以往任何時候都來得高。

  • they're higher than they've ever been.

    企業在工具與設備的投資

  • And business investment in gear, in equipment

    還有硬體和軟體方面, 都處於歷史新高。

  • and hardware and software is at an all-time high.

    所以企業都在拿出支票本花錢投資

  • So the businesses are getting out their checkbooks.

    但是他們並沒有真正的擴大招募員工

  • What they're not really doing is hiring.

    這條紅線是就業人口的比率,

  • So this red line is the employment-to-population ratio,

    換句話說,就是處於就業年齡的美國人

  • in other words, the percentage of working age people

    真的有工作的比例

  • in America who have work.

    我們可以看到這個比例在大蕭條時萎靡

  • And we see that it cratered during the Great Recession,

    但是到現在都還沒有開始反彈回來

  • and it hasn't started to bounce back at all.

    但是這個故事並不只是關於大蕭條

  • But the story is not just a recession story.

    十年來,我們剛剛經歷了持續性的

  • The decade that we've just been through had relatively

    相對低落的就業增長,尤其是當我們

  • anemic job growth all throughout, especially when we

    與過去的幾個十年進行比較時, 2000年這個十年

  • compare it to other decades, and the 2000s

    是唯一的一次我們經歷到,

  • are the only time we have on record where there were

    在十年期間的結束時的工作人口, 比十年剛開始的時候

  • fewer people working at the end of the decade

    還少的狀況. 這不是大家樂見的

  • than at the beginning. This is not what you want to see.

    當你用潛在就業人口的數據

  • When you graph the number of potential employees

    來對照國內工作數量作圖,您會看到之間的差距

  • versus the number of jobs in the country, you see the gap

    隨著時間越來越大,,

  • gets bigger and bigger over time, and then,

    而在大蕭條的時候差距特別顯著

  • during the Great Recession, it opened up in a huge way.

    我做了一些簡單的計算。我把過去的 20 年的國內生產總值增長

  • I did some quick calculations. I took the last 20 years of GDP growth

    和同一期間的勞動生產率的增長

  • and the last 20 years of labor productivity growth

    用相當簡單直接的方式

  • and used those in a fairly straightforward way

    嘗試預測維持經濟持續成長

  • to try to project how many jobs the economy was going

    所需要工作機會的數量, 而這是我算出的數據畫出的線

  • to need to keep growing, and this is the line that I came up with.

    這是好事還是壞事?來看看政府預測的數據

  • Is that good or bad? This is the government's projection

    關於就業人口的未來預測

  • for the working age population going forward.

    所以如果這些預測是準確的, 這個差距不會被弭平

  • So if these predictions are accurate, that gap is not going to close.

    問題是,我不認為這些預測是準確的。

  • The problem is, I don't think these projections are accurate.

    明白地說,我認為我的預測是太樂觀的

  • In particular, I think my projection is way too optimistic,

    因為當我做預測時, 我假設了未來應該會

  • because when I did it, I was assuming that the future

    跟過去是相像的

  • was kind of going to look like the past

    在關於勞動生產力的成長方面,這是我不相信的會成立的假設

  • with labor productivity growth, and that's actually not what I believe,

    因為當我環顧四周,我認為我們並未考慮到那些

  • because when I look around, I think that we ain't seen nothing yet

    關於技術對勞動力市場的衝擊。

  • when it comes to technology's impact on the labor force.

    只是在過去的幾年中,我們已經看到數位工具

  • Just in the past couple years, we've seen digital tools

    顯示的技能和能力,遠超過以往

  • display skills and abilities that they never, ever had before,

    而且從某種角度來說, 已經吃進了人類的賴以為生的

  • and that, kind of, eat deeply into what we human beings

    就業領域. 讓我舉幾個例子。

  • do for a living. Let me give you a couple examples.

    在過去的所有的歷史年代,如果你想要把某個文章

  • Throughout all of history, if you wanted something

    從一種語言翻譯成另一種,

  • translated from one language into another,

    必須要靠人類來做

  • you had to involve a human being.

    現在我們有了多國語言的,即時的

  • Now we have multi-language, instantaneous,

    自動翻譯服務, 還是免費的

  • automatic translation services available for free

    經由我們使用的終端裝置, 直接在智慧手機就能用到

  • via many of our devices all the way down to smartphones.

    而如果有使用過這些翻譯服務,我們就會知道,

  • And if any of us have used these, we know that

    做得並不是完美, 但也夠得體了。

  • they're not perfect, but they're decent.

    在過去的所有的歷史年代,如果你想要寫下一些東西,

  • Throughout all of history, if you wanted something written,

    比如一份報告或一篇文章,你必須透過人來做

  • a report or an article, you had to involve a person.

    不再是這樣了。這裡有一篇文章,

  • Not anymore. This is an article that appeared

    不久前發表在富比世雜誌上, 是關於蘋果公司的收益的

  • in Forbes online a while back about Apple's earnings.

    這篇文章是用演算法寫出來的

  • It was written by an algorithm.

    寫的不止是得體而已, 而是到了完美

  • And it's not decent, it's perfect.

    很多人看到這些事情會說, "那又怎樣?

  • A lot of people look at this and they say, "Okay,

    這些都只是非常特定、 狹窄領域的任務,

  • but those are very specific, narrow tasks,

    大多數的知識工作者實際上是通才,

  • and most knowledge workers are actually generalists,

    他們做的是, 坐擁一個由專業技能和知識組成的

  • and what they do is sit on top of a very large body

    龐然巨物, 這些人運用龐大的技能與知識

  • of expertise and knowledge and they use that

    來隨時對無法預測的要求, 馬上做出反應

  • to react on the fly to kind of unpredictable demands,

    這是非常、 非常難以自動化的工作"

  • and that's very, very hard to automate."

    就以一個最令人印象深刻的知識工作者

  • One of the most impressive knowledge workers

    大家可能記得最近有一個人, 名叫肯恩 詹寧斯。

  • in recent memory is a guy named Ken Jennings.

    他在益智問答節目 "Jeopardy!" 連續贏了74次

  • He won the quiz show "Jeopardy!" 74 times in a row,

    把 300 萬美金的獎金帶回家。

  • took home three million dollars.

    在右邊的就是 肯恩, 比數是 三比一,

  • That's Ken on the right getting beat three to one by

    在與 IBM 的超級電腦 華生(Watson) 進行的 "Jeopardy!" 遊戲中被打敗了

  • Watson, the "Jeopardy!"-playing supercomputer from IBM.

    所以當我們在看技術會怎樣影響到

  • So when we look at what technology can do

    一般知識工作者的時候,我開始思考

  • to general knowledge workers, I start to think

    也許所謂的通才的特殊之處並不存在

  • there might not be something so special about this idea

    尤其是當我們開始能夠做到例如

  • of a generalist, particularly when we start doing things

    把 Siri (蘋果手機的語音助理) 連結到 華生 (IBM的超級電腦)

  • like hooking Siri up to Watson and having technologies

    並且逐漸發展一些技術, 能了解人類說話內容

  • that can understand what we're saying

    並且用人類語音回答我們

  • and repeat speech back to us.

    現在,Siri 還撐不上完美, 我們也常拿它的一些差錯

  • Now, Siri is far from perfect, and we can make fun

    來開玩笑,但是我們仍應該記住,

  • of her flaws, but we should also keep in mind that

    如果像 Siri 和 華生 這樣的技術的改進

  • if technologies like Siri and Watson improve

    是沿著 摩爾法則 的預測軌跡,他們將

  • along a Moore's Law trajectory, which they will,

    在六年中,這些技術將不只是進步兩倍

  • in six years, they're not going to be two times better

    或進步四倍,他們會比現在進步 16 倍。

  • or four times better, they'll be 16 times better than they are right now.

    所以我開始覺得, 很多知識工作都將會受到技術的影響

  • So I start to think that a lot of knowledge work is going to be affected by this.

    而且 數位技術不只影響知識工作而已

  • And digital technologies are not just impacting knowledge work.

    它們也開始在實體世界大展身手了

  • They're starting to flex their muscles in the physical world as well.

    前一陣子我有機會坐上了 Google 的自動駕駛汽車

  • I had the chance a little while back to ride in the Google

    它坐起來跟聽起來一樣的酷

  • autonomous car, which is as cool as it sounds. (Laughter)

    我可以做證, 它能夠處理走走停停的路況

  • And I will vouch that it handled the stop-and-go traffic

    在101號公路上面, 開得非常平穩

  • on U.S. 101 very smoothly.

    總共大概有 350萬的人

  • There are about three and a half million people

    在美國這裡, 以開卡車為職業謀生

  • who drive trucks for a living in the United States.

    我想這些人中, 有一部份會受到這項科技的影響

  • I think some of them are going to be affected by this

    在目前, 人形機器人仍然還

  • technology. And right now, humanoid robots are still

    非常的原始。它們會做的事情不多

  • incredibly primitive. They can't do very much.

    但是它們發展得很快, 而且 DARPA,

  • But they're getting better quite quickly, and DARPA,

    就是國防部的投資部門,

  • which is the investment arm of the Defense Department,

    一直試著讓他們的發展更加速。

  • is trying to accelerate their trajectory.

    所以,簡單地說,對啦,機器人就要來搶我們的工作了。

  • So, in short, yeah, the droids are coming for our jobs.

    在短期內,我們可以刺激就業增長

  • In the short term, we can stimulate job growth

    透過鼓勵創業, 還有投資在基礎建設上

  • by encouraging entrepreneurship and by investing

    因為機器人目前仍然不是

  • in infrastructure, because the robots today still aren't

    很擅長修復橋樑。

  • very good at fixing bridges.

    但在不用太久,我想在場的各位

  • But in the not-too-long-term, I think within the lifetimes

    在有生之年,我們將會經歷到

  • of most of the people in this room, we're going to transition

    經濟型態的轉變, 一種非常具有生產力

  • into an economy that is very productive but that

    但是不需要許多的人類工作者的狀況

  • just doesn't need a lot of human workers,

    而如何管理這個轉變的發生, 將會是

  • and managing that transition is going to be

    我們的社會所面臨的最大挑戰。

  • the greatest challenge that our society faces.

    伏爾泰總結了其中的原因。他說,"工作讓我們避開了

  • Voltaire summarized why. He said, "Work saves us

    三個魔鬼: 無聊、 墮落, 和需要。"

  • from three great evils: boredom, vice and need."

    縱使有這樣的挑戰,至少就我個人來說,

  • But despite this challenge, I'm personally,

    我仍然是個超級的數位樂觀主義者,我也同時

  • I'm still a huge digital optimist, and I am

    十分自信地認為,我們現在發展的數位技術

  • supremely confident that the digital technologies that we're

    將會帶領我們進入一個烏托邦的未來,

  • developing now are going to take us into a utopian future,

    而不是一個 反烏托邦式的未來。要解釋為什麼,

  • not a dystopian future. And to explain why,

    我想要丟出一個有些過度誇張大的問題。

  • I want to pose kind of a ridiculously broad question.

    我想問的是, 在人類歷史上

  • I want to ask what have been the most important

    最重要的發展是什麼?

  • developments in human history?

    現在,我想分享一些我所找到的答案

  • Now, I want to share some of the answers that I've gotten

    來回答這個問題。這是一個很棒的問題

  • in response to this question. It's a wonderful question

    一問了就會展開無窮無盡的爭論

  • to ask and to start an endless debate about,

    因為有些人會搬出

  • because some people are going to bring up

    西方和東方的哲學的系統,

  • systems of philosophy in both the West and the East that

    這些的確改變了很多人看待世界的方式

  • have changed how a lot of people think about the world.

    然後其他人會說:"才不是這樣,真正重大的

  • And then other people will say, "No, actually, the big stories,

    關鍵的發展, 是世界上主要宗教的建立

  • the big developments are the founding of the world's

    宗教改變了各地的文明

  • major religions, which have changed civilizations

    也改變並影響了無數人的一生如何度過

  • and have changed and influenced how countless people

    然後一些其他人會說,

  • are living their lives." And then some other folk will say,

    "其實,改變文明的,改變人們觀點的,

  • "Actually, what changes civilizations, what modifies them

    改變人們生活的

  • and what changes people's lives

    其實是帝國,在人類歷史上的重大發展

  • are empires, so the great developments in human history

    主要是關於征服與戰爭的故事"

  • are stories of conquest and of war."

    然後一些愛開玩笑的人就會跟著提出說

  • And then some cheery soul usually always pipes up

    "嘿,別忘了還有那些瘟疫。"(笑聲)

  • and says, "Hey, don't forget about plagues." (Laughter)

    對這個問題,有一些樂觀的答案

  • There are some optimistic answers to this question,

    比如有些人會提出的是 探索的年代(十五世紀)

  • so some people will bring up the Age of Exploration

    對整個世界的開拓

  • and the opening up of the world.

    其他人則將提出: 智慧方面的成就

  • Others will talk about intellectual achievements

    在一些學科, 例如 數學, 就幫助人類對於

  • in disciplines like math that have helped us get

    世界有更好的理解, 還有一些人會提出

  • a better handle on the world, and other folk will talk about

    那個 藝術與科學 深度繁榮發展

  • periods when there was a deep flourishing

    的時期。所以像這樣的辯論可以一直談下去

  • of the arts and sciences. So this debate will go on and on.

    這個辯論談不完, 也不會有結論

  • It's an endless debate, and there's no conclusive,

    也沒有唯一的答案。但如果你像我一樣,是個阿宅工程師

  • no single answer to it. But if you're a geek like me,

    你會問,"嗯,有沒有實際的資料, 資料怎麼說?"

  • you say, "Well, what do the data say?"

    那你就會開始做一些我們有興趣的事情, 像是畫圖表

  • And you start to do things like graph things that we might

    比方全世界的人口總數,

  • be interested in, the total worldwide population, for example,

    或是某些社會發展的數據,

  • or some measure of social development,

    或是社會進步的狀態

  • or the state of advancement of a society,

    然後你開始繪製這些資料,因為,通過這樣的方式,

  • and you start to plot the data, because, by this approach,

    整個故事的全貌,在人類歷史上的大發展

  • the big stories, the big developments in human history,

    應該會是那些造成這些圖表曲線變彎很多的

  • are the ones that will bend these curves a lot.

    所以當你這樣做了,把資料畫出圖表了

  • So when you do this, and when you plot the data,

    你很快就會得到一些奇怪的結論

  • you pretty quickly come to some weird conclusions.

    你做出的結論是,事實上,前面講的這些答案

  • You conclude, actually, that none of these things

    沒有一個是真正重要的。(笑聲)

  • have mattered very much. (Laughter)

    這些答案根本對這些圖表曲線沒有影響。(笑聲)

  • They haven't done a darn thing to the curves. (Laughter)

    事實上只有一個故事, 一項發展

  • There has been one story, one development

    在人類的歷史上, 真正折彎了那些曲線, 而且彎了

  • in human history that bent the curve, bent it just about

    將近90 度,這個故事, 就是 技術。

  • 90 degrees, and it is a technology story.

    像是蒸汽引擎, 還有其它的相關技術

  • The steam engine, and the other associated technologies

    帶動了工業革命, 改變了整個世界

  • of the Industrial Revolution changed the world

    對人類歷史產生的重大的影響

  • and influenced human history so much,

    套用 歷史學家 伊恩 · 莫里斯 (Ian Morris) 的話說,

  • that in the words of the historian Ian Morris,

    這項發展讓先前發生的其它事情都變得微不足道了

  • they made mockery out of all that had come before.

    這項發展, 把我們的肌肉力量 放大了無窮倍

  • And they did this by infinitely multiplying the power

    克服了人類身體肌肉的限制

  • of our muscles, overcoming the limitations of our muscles.

    而現在, 我們正經歷著

  • Now, what we're in the middle of now

    超越人類個別大腦的限制的時機

  • is overcoming the limitations of our individual brains

    將我們的心智能力放大無窮多倍的時候

  • and infinitely multiplying our mental power.

    這必然也是一個至少 跟克服人類的肌肉力量限制

  • How can this not be as big a deal as overcoming

    一樣重大的發展吧?

  • the limitations of our muscles?

    所以請原諒我又再重覆了,當我觀察到

  • So at the risk of repeating myself a little bit, when I look

    這段期間內數位科技的發展

  • at what's going on with digital technology these days,

    我們離這段期間的終點還很遠

  • we are not anywhere near through with this journey,

    而當我看到所發生的事情, 對我們經濟

  • and when I look at what is happening to our economies

    還有社會所發生的影響, 我的唯一結論是

  • and our societies, my single conclusion is that

    我們還沒看到重大的里程碑, 最好的日子還在未來。

  • we ain't seen nothing yet. The best days are really ahead.

    讓我舉幾個例子。

  • Let me give you a couple examples.

    經濟體並不是靠能源運作的, 也不是靠資本

  • Economies don't run on energy. They don't run on capital,

    也不是靠勞力。經濟體的運行靠的是想法。

  • they don't run on labor. Economies run on ideas.

    所以創新的工作, 產生新的想法的工作

  • So the work of innovation, the work of coming up with

    是人類所能做的 多種 最強大的

  • new ideas, is some of the most powerful,

    最基本的 工作之一,這些工作是人類在經濟體裡

  • some of the most fundamental work that we can do

    能做的。而這也是我們過去如何創新的方式

  • in an economy. And this is kind of how we used to do innovation.

    我們會發現一大群看起來相當類似的人

  • We'd find a bunch of fairly similar-looking people

    — — (笑聲) — —

  • — (Laughter) —

    我們帶他們離開原本的精英的機構,把他們放到

  • we'd take them out of elite institutions, we'd put them into

    另一個精英的機構,然後等著創新的發生

  • other elite institutions, and we'd wait for the innovation.

    現在 — — (笑聲) — —

  • Now — (Laughter) —

    作為一個在麻省理工學院還有哈佛度過整個職涯的白種人

  • as a white guy who spent his whole career at MIT

    我對這沒有什麼問題。(笑聲)

  • and Harvard, I got no problem with this. (Laughter)

    但一些其他人遇到了問題,他們有點像是

  • But some other people do, and they've kind of crashed

    搞砸了派對, 而且放鬆了創新應有的規範

  • the party and loosened up the dress code of innovation.

    (笑聲)

  • (Laughter)

    這裡是一些 頂尖程式員寫程式大賽的優勝者

  • So here are the winners of a Top Coder programming challenge,

    我向你保證沒有人在意

  • and I assure you that nobody cares

    這些孩子是在哪裡長大, 在哪裡念書,

  • where these kids grew up, where they went to school,

    或是他們的長相。所有人只會在意

  • or what they look like. All anyone cares about

    他們工作產出的品質, 他們的點子的品質。

  • is the quality of the work, the quality of the ideas.

    一次又一次的,我們看到這種情況發生

  • And over and over again, we see this happening

    在這個科技推動的世界

  • in the technology-facilitated world.

    創新的工作越來越開放,

  • The work of innovation is becoming more open,

    更具包容性、 更透明、 和更以志業為基礎,

  • more inclusive, more transparent, and more merit-based,

    這會繼續下去, 不管 麻省理工學院和哈佛大學

  • and that's going to continue no matter what MIT and Harvard

    的觀點,而我對這樣感到非常的快樂。

  • think of it, and I couldn't be happier about that development.

    我偶爾會聽到,"好吧,我同意你的這個說法,

  • I hear once in a while, "Okay, I'll grant you that,

    但技術仍是富裕世界的工具

  • but technology is still a tool for the rich world,

    有些事情仍不會發生,這些數位工具也不會

  • and what's not happening, these digital tools are not

    改善金字塔底部的人民的生活"。

  • improving the lives of people at the bottom of the pyramid."

    我對這樣的說法有個清楚的回應: 一派胡言。

  • And I want to say to that very clearly: nonsense.

    金字塔的底部的人民, 正大大受益於技術的發展。

  • The bottom of the pyramid is benefiting hugely from technology.

    經濟學家 羅伯特 · 詹森 (Robert Jensen) 做了這項很棒的研究

  • The economist Robert Jensen did this wonderful study

    在前一陣子,他詳細的研究了

  • a while back where he watched, in great detail,

    在 印度喀拉拉邦的漁村發生的事情

  • what happened to the fishing villages of Kerala, India,

    當行動電話第一次交到當地人手上的時候

  • when they got mobile phones for the very first time,

    若你寫的文章是要刊在 經濟學季刊雜誌 的時候

  • and when you write for the Quarterly Journal of Economics,

    您必須使用非常乏味和非常周到的語言,

  • you have to use very dry and very circumspect language,

    但當我讀他的論文的時候,我覺得詹森試圖

  • but when I read his paper, I kind of feel Jensen is trying

    對我們尖叫,說,你看,這是一個大題目啊。

  • to scream at us, and say, look, this was a big deal.

    價格變穩定了,因此人們可以計畫他們的經濟生活。

  • Prices stabilized, so people could plan their economic lives.

    廢棄物不僅是減少而已;根本就是沒有廢棄物。

  • Waste was not reduced; it was eliminated.

    這些村莊裡的買家和賣家的生活

  • And the lives of both the buyers<