last week, we are now already in the middle of an extremely busy one.

也就是上禮拜之後，目前我們身處在一個非常忙碌的周次中。

As far as we at the financial times are concerned, obviously the big news is that we are now part of the Nikkei group,

對我們這些身在經濟時報的人來說，大頭條就是我們已經成為日經的一員，

first change in ownership in over half a century.

這是近半世紀以來首次的擁有權易主。

Perhaps the biggest financial news of the day is that the IMF is going to include the Chinese currency in its Special Drawing Right,

或許今天最大的新聞是，國際貨幣基金組織將把人民幣加入特別提款權，

so though that's not a move that has any big market consequence.

雖然這個舉動也不會造成太大的市場變動。

The really big deal in foreign exchange I would suggest, is the renewed great strength of the dollar.

我認為今天在外匯方面的頭條，是美金勢力的重新回歸。

You can see that, here in the dollar trade-weighted index, now almost through its high from earlier this year

如你所見，在這張美元貿易加權指數的圖表中，美金從今年初的高峰

back up through 100 plainly the results of what you might call the great divergence.

重新回到 100，很明顯這就是我們所謂的「大分歧」。

The belief that monetary policy here in the States is going to diverge ever more particularly from the Eurozone and from the Bank of Japan.

普遍認為美國的貨幣政策將會和歐元區以及日本銀行產生更大的分歧。

Now if you want a really dramatic demonstration of it, take a look at this next chart,

如果你想看一個更戲劇化的呈現，我們就來看下一張圖表，

which shows you the spread of 2-year German bunds yields over the equivalent US Treasuries.

它顯示了德國兩年期公債殖利率和美國國庫債券殖利率的對比分布圖。

And you can see German bund yields getting ever lower into negative territory,

你會發現德公債殖利率已經進入負成長，

that is now showing the most emphatic negative spread in getting on for a decade certainly since the crisis.

這是自金融危機至今，近十年來最大的負差額。

There's a continuing belief that we will see monetary policy diverge

越來越多人相信貨幣政策會產生分歧，

and we will have a number of very important events over the remainder of this week to test that hypothesis.

同時，在本周剩餘的日子裡，會發生幾件重要的事情來檢驗我們的揣測。

On Tuesday, we have the usual slew of new economic data that comes at the beginning of the month.

每個月初固定的經濟數據將在星期二發布。

ISM surveys for the US, Europe et al.

有 ISM 針對美國、歐洲等地的數據。

Thursday, we will get the news from the European Central Bank.

星期四時，我們將會有來自歐洲央行的消息。

Many expect an intensification of its policy of QE, of trying to push down yields in Europe.

外界預期他們會強化量化寬鬆政策，並且壓低歐洲的殖利率。

And then on Friday, we have non-farm payroll data here in the US,

然後在星期五，美國將會公布非農數據，

the last significant data that the Fed will receive before its meeting later this month in which everyone expects it to raise rates.

在月底那場眾人都認為會調升利率的會議舉辦前，這是聯準會會收到的最後一個重要資料。

If we are all rights, we are going to see clear evidence that that divergence that the market is now calling for

如果我們都是右派，我們會有明顯的證據指出，市場目前需要的分歧，

is indeed going to happen by the end of this week.

的確會在本周結束前發生。

We've had very calm markets for a few days, as everybody doesn't want to take any big positions ahead of this series of big events.

在這之前，整個金融市場相當平靜，因為沒有人願意在這一連串的消息公布前採取太大的行動。

Obviously if anything happens to interrupt, that's consensus to suggest that we're not going to diverge quite as much as people think.

顯然地，如果有任何事情打擾，共識就是，這代表我們分歧的程度將不會如外界想像的那麼多。

Then we could have a very much more exciting week this week.

然後這個禮拜就會更加緊張刺激了。