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Hello and welcome back to the note. And after an extremely quiet week,
last week, we are now already in the middle of an extremely busy one.
As far as we at the financial times are concerned, obviously the big news is that we are now part of the Nikkei group,
first change in ownership in over half a century.
Perhaps the biggest financial news of the day is that the IMF is going to include the Chinese currency in its Special Drawing Right,
so though that's not a move that has any big market consequence.
The really big deal in foreign exchange I would suggest, is the renewed great strength of the dollar.
You can see that, here in the dollar trade-weighted index, now almost through its high from earlier this year
back up through 100 plainly the results of what you might call the great divergence.
The belief that monetary policy here in the States is going to diverge ever more particularly from the Eurozone and from the Bank of Japan.
Now if you want a really dramatic demonstration of it, take a look at this next chart,
which shows you the spread of 2-year German bunds yields over the equivalent US Treasuries.
And you can see German bund yields getting ever lower into negative territory,
that is now showing the most emphatic negative spread in getting on for a decade certainly since the crisis.
There's a continuing belief that we will see monetary policy diverge
and we will have a number of very important events over the remainder of this week to test that hypothesis.
On Tuesday, we have the usual slew of new economic data that comes at the beginning of the month.
ISM surveys for the US, Europe et al.
Thursday, we will get the news from the European Central Bank.
Many expect an intensification of its policy of QE, of trying to push down yields in Europe.
And then on Friday, we have non-farm payroll data here in the US,
the last significant data that the Fed will receive before its meeting later this month in which everyone expects it to raise rates.
If we are all rights, we are going to see clear evidence that that divergence that the market is now calling for
is indeed going to happen by the end of this week.
We've had very calm markets for a few days, as everybody doesn't want to take any big positions ahead of this series of big events.
Obviously if anything happens to interrupt, that's consensus to suggest that we're not going to diverge quite as much as people think.
Then we could have a very much more exciting week this week.
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【經濟時報】迎接大分歧時代 Great divergence I Authers Note

88 分類 收藏
Kristi Yang 發佈於 2015 年 12 月 3 日    Jacky Avocado Tao 翻譯    Kristi Yang 審核
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