Many and I poised to be the trade of next year as well. Thanks to the Central Bank of Europe and the US. But that should be cautious.

許多人和我一樣已經為明天的貿易做好準備了，這都多虧了歐洲中央銀行和美國當局。但這仍須謹慎，

On Thursday, the dovish European Central Bank is indeed poised to move rates even more deeply negative

週四，鴿派的中央銀行已經準備大幅度地調降利率，

to extend quantitative easing beyond next September to buy more bonds, or possibly, to do all three.

試著在明年九月前定量地調整、放寬債券買賣，或是盡可能地做到更多。

In the full-night time, the US Federal Reserves widely expected to take the exact opposite approach, raising interest rates for the first time in almost the decade.

經過一晚，美國聯邦儲備系統卻高度地期望能用完全相反，採取提高利率的方式。

It's living divergence. In conclusion, obvious, buy the Dollar, sell the Euro. The US is tightening and the Euro zone easing. What else could you do?

這兩者之中是有分歧的。總之，購入美元、賣出歐元。只能說美國正處於緊縮而歐洲則是寬鬆的，除此之外你還能怎麼做呢?

Well, this chart shows the value of the Euro, that's the blue line that against the Dollar.

總之，這個圖表顯示出了歐元的價值，就是藍色的線和美元做對照。

And against that in red is the additional yield that you earned from holding German rather than US short-dated bonds.

兩條線之間的間隔部分就是你持有德國債券相對於持有美國債券能獲利的，

Even as German yields followed European monetary policy into more negative territory, US's yields have been rising than anticipation of Fed action.

即使在歐洲貨幣政策對德國不利，而美國聯準會持續調升利率這樣的狀態下。

That's driven down the spread day into a deeply negative territory, that's have on the left says that

這樣的調降使得情況更糟糕，可以從左側看出來，

German bond yields deny almost 2 percentage points lower than in the US at the 2-year level.

德國的債券收益率縮減了將近兩個百分點，比美國兩年期的來得低。

Well, so far so obvious, but everyone knows this: the short viewpoint to that yesterday. That's on the Dollar rising could still get a bit more crowded.

就目前粗略地看來，美元升值是有一點困難的，

So perhaps, there is a bit more to go. After all Euros just coming close to the levels that it hit back in March.

也許要達到三月份的高峰，對歐元來說還有很長一段路。

The problem is with the fundamentals. Monetary policy in the Euro zone seems to be working.

最大的是根本的問題，在歐元區的貨幣政策看似奏效，

There are still threats of course with Ukraine and the Middle East on Europe's doorstep,

但仍有部分來自鄰國的壓力，像是烏克蘭和東歐地區的國家。

and domestic political danger's never far away and troubled Euro zone.

以及長久以來持續困擾歐元區的內區政治問題。

But look at the economic data, and the region doesn't look like it's improving fast.

但看看這些經濟資料，顯示出這些地區並沒有快速發展，

Today brought European manufacturing figures showing the fastest growth since last summer.

自去年以來歐洲的製造業的數據呈顯出最大幅度的成長，

Banks again lending to companies and individuals. And employments dropped to the lowest since early 2012.

銀行也開始貸款給公司及個人。然而就業率卻在2012年開始跌至最低點。

Monetary base is growing just as far as it did from the Euro's lounge back in 1999, up to the start of the crisis year of 2017.

貨幣基數則如同1999年代歐洲重返時成長，預估一路成長到 2017 年。

If you look at core inflation stripping at the volatile energy and food prices, it's back about 1%, still below the 2% plus the 2% target,

若你去看通貨膨脹的核心產業: 能源、食物，你會發現他已經好轉一個百分點，但仍然離標準有兩個百分點的差距。

but while away from the deflation re-threat. At the same time, GDP that's rising faster than the sclerotic Euro zone can expect in the long return.

儘管剛脫離通貨緊縮的陰霾，德國的國內生產總值就長遠來看將持續領先僵化的歐元區。

And all of that suggest, after this week's easing by the ECB, the talk in the Euro zone might soon turn hawkish.

不論以上的建議如何，在這週的歐洲中央銀行紓困後，歐元區的作風仍有可能趨向鷹派。

At the same time, the US recovery is starting to look a bit more challenged. Today's manufacturing data in the US, that's the blue line there,

同時，美國的復甦在現階段看來也是燒有挑戰性。關於美國的製造業資料，可以看到這裡的藍線，

is showing the sector contracting at the fastest pace since 2009, should say below 50 shows the manufacturing's contracting, and above 50 shows gross.

顯示出了在2009年有部分的產業大幅縮減，數值五十以下的是縮減的產業，反之則是成長。

This is red line is the Euro zone.

紅色的現則代表歐元區。

Does it start look as though the strength of the Dollars starting to hurt the internationally exposed American manufacturers?

美元的影響力是否已擴及在美的國際企業呢?

At the same time is the weak Euro is starting to help the European manufacturers.

這個禮拜恰巧是碰上歐元區開始著手協助區內的產業，

The domestically-driven US services sector still looks ok, but higher US inflation

美國國內服務業則看似沒已受到影顯，但美國境內的膨脹

compared to Europe can all be explained at the core level by the faster rising US's ramps, just hardly the basic building block for robustic economy,

和歐洲相比來得高，可歸因於太快的升息為了穩固經濟體，

And none of this means the Dollar is about to crash. But after rising a third since last summer, sorry it's the summer last year, against the Euro,

這麼說並不代表美元即將崩解、沒了希望，但相對於歐元，美元自去年夏天已持續升值。

investors would need to think that the European recovery is weaker than the data suggests,

投資者必須考量歐洲國家的復甦是否真如數據上來得穩固、可信，

while the US is stronger in order to bet on the Dollar having another big gain in 2016.

因此美元仍然是接下來 2016 年最受投資者信賴的貨幣。