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  • Hello, welcome back to the Note, and Happy Thanksgiving to our American viewers.

    哈囉,歡迎回到奧瑟茲財經筆記,祝美國的觀眾們感恩節愉快

  • Now we've had a fairly quiet day on world market. Perhaps the most interesting development was another fall for the Euro against the Dollar.

    今天全球市場看來相當平靜。或許比較有趣的發展是歐元兌換美元的匯率下降

  • It's now almost back to its lows for the year set much earlier. And that's in line with another very dramatic long-term trend,

    現在幾乎回到今年稍早的匯率低潮。這和另一股劇變的長期趨勢

  • which is the European stocks' utterly underperforming American stocks.

    也就是歐洲股市表現比美國股市表現還來的不佳

  • If you take a look at this chart, you can see that since January 2008, the FTSEurofirst 300, when you judge this in common currency terms,

    看看這張圖表,可以發現自從2008年一月,泛歐績優股,就普遍貨幣兌換來說

  • has lost more than half of its value compared to the S&P 500.

    相較於標準普爾500指數,泛歐績優股已失去重大價值

  • Those who remember back that far that top there was created by the rock tracing instant the Jerome Kerviel incident Société Générale

    多年以前,熱羅姆·凱維埃爾的法國興業銀行事件,曾讓泛歐績優股達至頂峰

  • Ever since then, European stocks have inextricably underperfomed US' stocks.

    在這之後,歐洲股市的表現如詛咒般一直不如美國

  • Now a lot of this is the currency. So if we take the currency ex-fit equation and compare the Eurofirst in Euros with the S&P in Dollars,

    而這與貨幣問題有很大的關係。

  • look at everything in local currency, you can see that the effect is more muted.

    以當地貨幣去分析,可以發現影響並不大

  • There was a much more impressive rally for European stocks in the beginning of this year.

    反而在年初歐洲股市有顯著回穩

  • But you can still see European stocks have given up some third of their value against the S&P, and the trend still looks very negative at present.

    但可以看出針對標準普爾指數,歐洲股市放棄部分的第三季獲利,然而目前發展趨勢仍不樂觀

  • How do we explain this? Some of this obviously is the Eurozone crisis. A lot of this is that the US has had a much more lenient monetary policy.

    這是怎麼回事呢?有一部分顯然是因歐元危機所引起。而主要是因為美國有較寬鬆的貨幣政策

  • Whatever you think of that, it certainly helps to boil the valuations of stocks.

    不論你對此有何論點,它確實是股票市值上升的一大助力

  • But I think the most important reason is to do with hope or optimism, a good theme of US Thanksgiving.

    但我認為最重要的是因為我們懷抱著希望與樂觀的態度去處理,這正是美國感恩節的主題

  • American stocks have a very rich valuation of what appeared to be top of the cycle earnings;

    美國股市現在市值非常高,達到景氣循環的頂點

  • European stocks have rather low valuation of what appeared to be depressed earnings.

    歐洲股市則相較市值較低,位處盈利蕭條的低潮

  • That is the main driver. This we can expect that to reverse.

    這就是目前的主要趨勢。我們期待這樣的情況能有改變

  • And so, I think the American should be very thankful for the strength of this stock market at the moment.

    美國應該對目前股市帶來的優勢懷抱感恩

  • The chances are that at some point before too much longer, this long term underperformance by Europe of the US is going to start its reverse.

    在不久的將來,歐洲長期表現不如美國,這一情況是有可能翻轉的

Hello, welcome back to the Note, and Happy Thanksgiving to our American viewers.

哈囉,歡迎回到奧瑟茲財經筆記,祝美國的觀眾們感恩節愉快

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B2 中高級 中文 FinancialTimes 股市 歐洲 市值 美國 表現

歐股表現不佳 - 作者簡介 (European stocks underperform | Authers' Note)

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    Kristi Yang 發佈於 2021 年 01 月 14 日
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