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  • First, a video.

    首先, 一則錄影

  • Yes, it is a scrambled egg.

    是的, 這是關於打蛋

  • But as you look at it,

    但當你注視它

  • I hope you'll begin to feel just slightly uneasy.

    我希望你們會開始

  • Because you may notice that what's actually happening

    感到一絲絲的不自在

  • is that the egg is unscrambling itself.

    因為你會注意到實際上發生的是

  • And you'll now see the yolk and the white have separated.

    蛋在重新回到有序的狀態

  • And now they're going to be poured back into the egg.

    看到蛋白蛋黃分離

  • And we all know in our heart of hearts

    接著是灌回到蛋殼之中

  • that this is not the way the universe works.

    我們非常清楚

  • A scrambled egg is mush -- tasty mush -- but it's mush.

    宇宙不會是這樣運行的

  • An egg is a beautiful, sophisticated thing

    打散的蛋 是濃稠的

  • that can create even more sophisticated things,

    蛋是美麗的 是複雜的

  • such as chickens.

    也能產生更複雜的

  • And we know in our heart of hearts

    像是小雞

  • that the universe does not travel from mush to complexity.

    我們也非常明白

  • In fact, this gut instinct

    宇宙不是從稠狀混亂

  • is reflected in one of the most fundamental laws of physics,

    到複雜的運行

  • the second law of thermodynamics, or the law of entropy.

    事實上, 本能直覺

  • What that says basically

    是反映了一些基本物理定律

  • is that the general tendency of the universe

    熱力學的第二定律或熵變定理

  • is to move from order and structure

    基本上是說

  • to lack of order, lack of structure --

    宇宙的一般通則

  • in fact, to mush.

    是從較有規則

  • And that's why that video feels a bit strange.

    與結構的狀態

  • And yet, look around us.

    演變成缺乏規律與結構的方向

  • What we see around us is staggering complexity.

    也就是向 濃稠狀混亂

  • Eric Beinhocker estimates that in New York City alone,

    那也就是剛剛錄影片段

  • there are some 10 billion SKUs, or distinct commodities, being traded.

    看起來奇怪的地方

  • That's hundreds of times as many species as there are on Earth.

    同樣地

  • And they're being traded by a species of almost seven billion individuals,

    看看我們的四周

  • who are linked by trade, travel, and the Internet

    到處所見

  • into a global system of stupendous complexity.

    都是驚人的複雜

  • So here's a great puzzle:

    Eric Beinhocker 估計光紐約市

  • in a universe ruled by the second law of thermodynamics,

    就有近100億項物品在進行交易

  • how is it possible

    是數百倍地球所有生物

  • to generate the sort of complexity I've described,

    的實際數量

  • the sort of complexity represented by you and me

    而這些交易只是由一種近

  • and the convention center?

    70億數量的生物物種

  • Well, the answer seems to be,

    被交易 旅行 與 網路 所串聯

  • the universe can create complexity,

    成一全球系統

  • but with great difficulty.

    的驚人複雜性

  • In pockets,

    這就是個偉大的迷惑:

  • there appear what my colleague, Fred Spier,

    宇宙中

  • calls "Goldilocks conditions" --

    由熱力學的第二定律所主宰

  • not too hot, not too cold,

    又是怎麼可能

  • just right for the creation of complexity.

    產生剛剛所描述的複雜

  • And slightly more complex things appear.

    由你我所代表的複雜

  • And where you have slightly more complex things,

    以及這會議中心的一切呢?

  • you can get slightly more complex things.

    答案似乎是

  • And in this way, complexity builds stage by stage.

    宇宙能創造出複雜性

  • Each stage is magical

    但帶著些困難度

  • because it creates the impression of something utterly new

    口袋裡

  • appearing almost out of nowhere in the universe.

    有著我的同事, Fred Spier,

  • We refer in big history to these moments as threshold moments.

    所稱的 Goldilocks (適宜)條件

  • And at each threshold, the going gets tougher.

    既不過熱 也不過冷

  • The complex things get more fragile,

    條件剛剛好 適宜創造出複雜性

  • more vulnerable;

    更約略複雜的事就發生了

  • the Goldilocks conditions get more stringent,

    有了複雜的發生

  • and it's more difficult to create complexity.

    才能有再約略複雜的事接著發生

  • Now, we, as extremely complex creatures,

    就這樣 複雜性一步一步

  • desperately need to know this story

    建構起來

  • of how the universe creates complexity despite the second law,

    每一步都是神奇的

  • and why complexity means vulnerability and fragility.

    因為一切都是創建新奇的事物

  • And that's the story that we tell in big history.

    一切都是無中生有

  • But to do it, you have do something

    在大歷史中 我們稱這些階段為

  • that may, at first sight, seem completely impossible.

    閥值時段

  • You have to survey the whole history of the universe.

    每一個閥值

  • So let's do it.

    是愈來愈難

  • (Laughter)

    複雜的事是 更脆弱

  • Let's begin by winding the timeline back

    更易破碎

  • 13.7 billion years,

    Goldilocks (適宜)條件是更嚴峻

  • to the beginning of time.

    更困難

  • Around us, there's nothing.

    創建下一個複雜性

  • There's not even time or space.

    現在呢, 身為極度複雜物種

  • Imagine the darkest, emptiest thing you can

    極度需要知道這個關於

  • and cube it a gazillion times and that's where we are.

    宇宙變得複雜的故事

  • And then suddenly,

    除了是第二定律

  • bang!

    以及為何複雜性

  • A universe appears, an entire universe.

    意味著脆弱性

  • And we've crossed our first threshold.

    與不穩定

  • The universe is tiny; it's smaller than an atom.

    這些就是我們想解的大歷史

  • It's incredibly hot.

    為了達成它 我們必須先做些其他事

  • It contains everything that's in today's universe,

    這事乍看之下是完全不可能的

  • so you can imagine, it's busting.

    就是你得盤查整個宇宙的歷史

  • And it's expanding at incredible speed.

    所以 進行吧!

  • And at first, it's just a blur,

    (笑聲)

  • but very quickly distinct things begin to appear in that blur.

    讓我們把時間往回撥

  • Within the first second,

    到137億年前

  • energy itself shatters into distinct forces

    也就是時間的開始

  • including electromagnetism and gravity.

    四周是什麼也沒有

  • And energy does something else quite magical:

    根本沒有時間與空間

  • it congeals to form matter --

    先想像能想像的最黑暗與空無的狀況

  • quarks that will create protons

    再更加無數倍的狀況

  • and leptons that include electrons.

    那才是所處的狀態

  • And all of that happens in the first second.

    突然間

  • Now we move forward 380,000 years.

    砰! 一個宇宙出現 一個完整的宇宙

  • That's twice as long as humans have been on this planet.

    我們第一次越過閥值

  • And now simple atoms appear of hydrogen and helium.

    那個宇宙是非常小 比一個原子還小

  • Now I want to pause for a moment,

    卻是極度的高溫高能量

  • 380,000 years after the origins of the universe,

    它包含今日所有存在宇宙的東西

  • because we actually know quite a lot about the universe at this stage.

    所以你可以想像 那是非常爆滿

  • We know above all that it was extremely simple.

    它開始以極快的速度膨脹

  • It consisted of huge clouds of hydrogen and helium atoms,

    一開始只是模糊渾沌

  • and they have no structure.

    但是渾沌中一些明晰的物質出現

  • They're really a sort of cosmic mush.

    就在第一秒內

  • But that's not completely true.

    能量自己分裂出不同的作用力

  • Recent studies

    包括電磁力與重力

  • by satellites such as the WMAP satellite

    能量開始做些神奇的事

  • have shown that, in fact,

    它凝結成物質

  • there are just tiny differences in that background.

    有夸克就是後來組成質子等

  • What you see here,

    有輕子就是含電子等

  • the blue areas are about a thousandth of a degree cooler

    這些都發生在第一秒內

  • than the red areas.

    再往前撥快38萬年

  • These are tiny differences,

    是人類出現於地球上的兩倍長的時間

  • but it was enough for the universe to move on

    現在 簡單的原子出現了

  • to the next stage of building complexity.

    氫與氦

  • And this is how it works.

    讓我暫停一下下

  • Gravity is more powerful where there's more stuff.

    宇宙開始後的38萬年

  • So where you get slightly denser areas,

    就目前為止我們

  • gravity starts compacting clouds of hydrogen and helium atoms.

    對這段宇宙歷史是知道相當多的

  • So we can imagine the early universe breaking up into a billion clouds.

    我們也知道一切都是相當簡單的物理

  • And each cloud is compacted,

    有著龐大雲霧般的

  • gravity gets more powerful as density increases,

    氫與氦原子

  • the temperature begins to rise at the center of each cloud,

    還不成結構狀態

  • and then, at the center,

    它們真的只是一種宇宙渾沌

  • the temperature crosses the threshold temperature

    又不完全是

  • of 10 million degrees,

    根據最近研究

  • protons start to fuse,

    WMAP衛星的觀測

  • there's a huge release of energy,

    顯示背景輻射 有少許的不同

  • and --

    就如此所示

  • bam!

    藍色區域有著相差千分之一度的冷

  • We have our first stars.

    相較於紅色區域

  • From about 200 million years after the Big Bang,

    只有著些許不同

  • stars begin to appear all through the universe,

    卻足夠讓宇宙演化

  • billions of them.

    進入下一階段的複雜度

  • And the universe is now significantly more interesting

    就是這麼的進展

  • and more complex.

    重力當有更多物質聚集

  • Stars will create the Goldilocks conditions

    作用更強

  • for crossing two new thresholds.

    只要有密度分配不均的情況

  • When very large stars die,

    重力就開始作用

  • they create temperatures so high

    拉近 氫和氦原子團

  • that protons begin to fuse in all sorts of exotic combinations,

    所以可以想像 初期的宇宙 開始分出

  • to form all the elements of the periodic table.

    無數的 小雲團

  • If, like me, you're wearing a gold ring,

    每一個雲團都是緊實的

  • it was forged in a supernova explosion.

    而重力又隨密度增加而增加作用

  • So now the universe is chemically more complex.

    雲團核心處的溫度開始升高

  • And in a chemically more complex universe,

    然後在雲團中的核心處

  • it's possible to make more things.

    溫度越過了臨界溫度

  • And what starts happening is that, around young suns,

    約為1000萬度

  • young stars,

    質子開始融合

  • all these elements combine, they swirl around,

    也釋放出巨大能量

  • the energy of the star stirs them around,

    碰!

  • they form particles, they form snowflakes, they form little dust motes,

    有了第一個恆星了

  • they form rocks, they form asteroids,

    約當自宇宙開始後的2億年

  • and eventually, they form planets and moons.

    恆星開始出現在宇宙四處

  • And that is how our solar system was formed,

    幾十億的星星

  • four and a half billion years ago.

    宇宙開始有趣多了

  • Rocky planets like our Earth are significantly more complex than stars

    也更複雜

  • because they contain a much greater diversity of materials.

    恆星會產生最適宜狀態

  • So we've crossed a fourth threshold of complexity.

    再越過兩個門階

  • Now, the going gets tougher.

    當大型恆星死亡

  • The next stage introduces entities that are significantly more fragile,

    會是極高溫狀態

  • significantly more vulnerable,

    質子開始結合成各種奇特的組合

  • but they're also much more creative

    也建構出週期表的所有元素

  • and much more capable of generating further complexity.

    如果 你也像我帶著一只金戒指

  • I'm talking, of course, about living organisms.

    它被超新星爆炸所偽造

  • Living organisms are created by chemistry.

    所以 現在的宇宙就化學的觀點是更複雜的

  • We are huge packages of chemicals.

    就化學上複雜的宇宙