but Britain’s choosen today to slash subsidizes for carbon reduction

但英國已經選定今天來削減減碳的補助，

scrap the billion pound support for carbon capture and storage, and exempt the heaviest industries from environmental tariffs.

廢除對碳收集與儲存的十億英鎊補助，並且豁免重工業的關稅。

Binding the deal was already going to be hard to secure in Paris

要在這次的會議中談成一個具有約束力的條約已非易事，

but the US, wary of anything which would need support from the congress, which remains in denial.

對一切都相當謹慎的美國，現下需要國會的背書，但仍然被否決。

Mentioning global warming in any investment conference

在任何投資會議上提到全球暖化的問題

brings out plenty of skeptics in the investment community

都會促使投資人中眾多的懷疑論者現身，

who share the view of most of the republican primary contestants

這些人和共和黨主要競選者的看法一致，

that is that the whole thing is a scam cooked up by left wingers.

也就是一切有關全球暖化的問題，都是左派精心策畫的騙局。

Yet even these investors who reject these scientific consensus

即使這些持懷疑態度的投資人拒絕採信現有的科學共識，

should be paying attention to what is going on in the climate.

他們也該注意氣候變遷的情況。

That is not because of rising sea levels,

並不是因為海平面升高的緣故，

although anyone with a very long investment horizon might want to avoid investing in low lying city property.

儘管任何有長遠投資視野的人，都會想避免在低地勢的城市投資。

It's not because of worsening natural disasters or damaged farmlands either,

也不是因為日益加劇的自然災害，或是被摧毀的農地，

although those who invest in catastrophe bonds should really be concerned.

儘管有購買巨災債券的人的確應該密切注意這些消息。

The real reason that investors need to pay attention to the climate, simply, is that so many others is beginning to do so.

投資人應該關心氣候變遷的真正原因，簡單地說，是因為很多其他人已經開始了。

They're screening at the biggest carbon emitters or pressing for change at companies they hold.

他們正監督著最大的碳排放業者，或是迫使這些他們持股的公司進行改變。

This week, Insurer Allianz said that it was going to sell two hundred and twenty five million euros of shares

本周安聯宣布他們將要賣出手中大型煤礦開採業者與發電廠

and run off 3.9 billion euros of bonds in big coal producers and power generators

市值 2.25 億歐元的股份，並釋出 39 億歐元的債券，

as part of a wave of investors imposing environmental filters.

此舉呼應了這波投資人要求加裝環保過濾器的潮流。

The price of coal, that’s the red line here, adjusted for inflation, has collapsed recently,

煤炭的價格，也就是這條紅線，近期因應通貨膨脹而下跌，

something environmentalist have tended to be delighted about,

這是件令環保人士感到高興的事，

but the blue line suggests that it should be a little less smug.

但這條藍線暗示的是，霧霾的情況應該要減輕些的。

Well the prices collapsed thanks to weaker Chinese economy in the opening of new mines,

由於中國在開採新礦上較為疲軟，煤礦價格因此下跌，

the production showed by the blue line is only very very slightly down from its recent record highs.

但藍色線所代表的產量也只有從近期的新高略為下滑。

That is of course the amount of coal dug up and burnt which matters to the environment, not the price.

以上所說的，有關煤礦的開採量與消耗量，當然只跟環境有關，跟股市一點關係也沒有。

Still, there are a couple of decent reasons

然而，這裡有幾個正經的理由，

why an investor might reasonably worry about exposure to carbon intensive companies.

是為何投資人應該擔心與碳排放量過高的公司有所關聯。

First of all, it leaves them exposed to the risk that politicians will finally take serious action,

首先，不論目前這看起來是一件多麼不可能的事情，

no matter how unlikely that may seem at the moment.

這都讓他們暴露在政治人物隨時可能採取嚴正行動的風險中。

That is a risk that anyone exposed to high carbon companies is automatically running.

凡是與碳排放量過高的公司有交集的人，自然而然都會面臨這樣的風險。

There is some slight recent evidence that companies which cut the amount of carbon emissions

近期有證據顯示，那些減少每單位銷售額碳排放量的公司，

they produced per unit of sales have out performed.

在公司營運上是勝出的。

As you can see on this chart from BlackRock, it divides up companies into the quintiles

如同這張貝萊德的表格所顯示，它將公司分成五等，

that is the groups of one fifth each that have done the most and least to improve in terms of carbon. So reducing carbon.

也就是在碳排放量方面，改善最多與最少的前後五分之一的公司。

These guys at the top clearly outperformed the wider market over the past couple of years.

顯然地，這些在表格頂端的公司在過去幾年間表現優於整體的市場。

But it hasn't has not a lot of evidence this is worked over a longer period,

但這方面並沒有長期累積下來的證據。

but of course the companies that are most likely to improve are the worst at the moment.

當然，最有可能進步的公司，必然是那些現下表現最糟糕的。

So this isn’t necessary an argument for buying companies which have already made the effort.

不容分說，投資那些已經努力改善的公司並不是一個最好的選擇。

Quite the opposite, maybe you should be buying those which are currently the worst.

正好相反，或許你應該買入的，是那些正在谷底的公司。

Secondly, holding Smokestack industries makes you a target for the green lobby.

其次，持有重工業的股份會讓你成為環保人士的標靶。

Pension funds, insurers and big brands keen to protect their public image.

撫恤金、保險公司和其他大公司都很保護自己的公共形象。

This second risk is really the most important.

第二個風險是最重要的。

The more institutions that join the divestment campaign,

如果有越多公司參與撤資行動，

the more damage will be done to shares and coal miners, oil companies and power generators.

就會對股份、煤礦公司、石油公司與發電廠公司造成更多傷害。

Other investors should be paying attention not because they want to do their bit for the climate,

其他投資人關心的理由，並不是因為他們想要為氣候變遷盡一份心力，

but because they want to sell before the price falls.

而是因為他們想在價格下跌前趕緊賣出持股。

Smart investors shouldn't just try to get out early,

聰明的投資人不應該只想著早日脫手，

they should also prepare to get back in. Matters that might sound.

他們應該隨時準備再進場。這聽起來是個好主意吧。

If institutional selling drives the price down enough to create a significant carbon risk premium,

如果機構銷售使價格下降到足以創造鉅額的碳曝險貼水，

it will be a great buying opportunity.

這將會是個很好的進場時機。

You will be rewarded for holding those big polluters.

你將因為持有這些大污染源的股份而獲得報償。

Well, after all as British chancellor George Osborne managed to demonstrate today,

最後，如同英國財務大臣喬治．奧斯本今天想要表現的，

when the going gets tough, politicians will usually choose industry over the environment.

當事態嚴重時，政治人物通常會選擇工業而非環保。

So that means staying out of coal miners for the moment,

所以這代表，眼下先避開煤礦公司的股份，

but being ready to buy back in when prices get really distressed.

但在價錢到低點時，隨時準備進場。