Name: 風暴後的平靜 I 作者簡介 (Calm after the storm I Authers Note)
Uploaded: 2021-01-14T05:49:56.000Z
Duration: 3 min 28 s

程度副詞

Hello, welcome back to The Note. Continues to be a very difficult talk or think about markets,

嗨，歡迎回到 The Note。最近談論市場仍然十分困難，

when the news about the geopolitical situations the terrorists aftering Paris is still so fresh.

因為地理政治情勢的新聞和巴黎恐怖攻擊對大家來說仍記憶猶新。

轉承詞

However, markets don't seem to be so skirmish.

無論如何，市場似乎相較之下平靜許多。

We saw a remarkable rally in the circumstances across Europian stock markets stay particularly in France.

歐洲的股票市場目前重整情形令人刮目相看（尤其是法國）

Meanwhile, here in The States, The S&P turns down in the afternoon but nothing too dramatic.

同時，美國的標準普爾指數於今天下午稍稍下滑，但仍在估計範圍內。

The key difference between those two markets being, of course, that's the Europian market closed before the very alarming use matters of disexpected

這兩個市場的主要差異在於，歐洲市場在哈瓦那恐怖攻擊之前就已關閉；

plans terrorist attack in Havana came across the wires while that happened while US stock markets were still trading.

但那時美國的股票市場 交易仍持續進行。

More broadly, away from the stock markets, I suspect the most significant markets must be looking at this point, are the metals.

宏觀來說，撇開股票市場不看，我認為最密切觀察這點的 非金屬市場莫屬了。

Now if we take a look at gold, it has a very sharp sell off today, is now down about ten percent from a height gain after a rebound,

我們可以稍微看看黃金的走向，今天急劇下跌，繼高增益之後又下降了十個百分點。

about a month ago it's now a new low for a year and that you can see,

相較於一個月前，又再度創了新低。

it's loft into a quite significant down trains.

You will normally expect gold to benefit from safe payment buying from people or worried about the geopolitical situation but this point people plainly aren't worried about that.

通常大家預期黃金會因保險付款而獲利、或是擔心地理政治的局勢，但現在這似乎都不是首要考量。

Instead, the strength of the dollar which goes with the belief that the FED will be raising rates is helping to push gold down.

相反地，大家預期美聯會將使美元生息，也因次壓抑了黃金的成長。

Now if we take a look at a very different metal, copper, as we mostly know the most important to be industrial metals,

來看看另一種金屬：銅。我們都知道銅是最重要的工業金屬之一，

That's also have another sell off today is now, let's say fresh post crisis low , barely any higher than it was a decade ago,

現在的價錢是繼危機之後的新低，幾乎不比十年前高。

think all of the growth that China has managed in the interim, it is not good to push copper prices up,

我們由中國在過渡期的經歷可以看出，哄抬銅的價錢並沒有好處，

plainly showing continued very great concerns world about industrial or manufacturing economy.

僅僅顯示世界對於工業經濟及製造經濟前景的擔憂。

You can also put this together for the force of foreign exchange of the emerging markets and continued strength in the dollar.

以外幣兌換的觀點來看，美元持續成長，

There are a number of areas where the pressure on the FED not to raise rates on the concern there may be some kind of emerging market crisis could be building.

也有些特定的領域仍對美聯會施壓、不希望美元生息，因為這樣可能會替潛在市場帶來危機。

There is also a belief which is helping to buy stock markets,

另外也有人相信，這樣可以幫助買下股票市場，

the latest geopolitical news could give central banks a get out of jail free card,

因為最近的地理政治局勢彷彿給了央行豁免權，

an excuse not to raise rates if there is a period of high uncertainty that there is always a good justification not to raise rates.

讓他們因現階段的不確定性而有藉口不升息。

Hence, we have this rather strange picture where markets such as industrial metals or foreign exchanges,

因此，我們似乎有種憧憬是 工業用金屬或是外幣兌換

suggesting very difficult problems when it comes to attempting to raise rates,

可以顯示出 對於美元升息來說，當下的情勢是如何艱難

while stock markets are showing equanimity as is in many ways the gold price

股票市場和黃金價格目前都較為穩定

你可能不同意，我也將同意你的看法

but this is really rather worryingly relaxed attitude by markets to some very scary news.

但是這對於市場的壞消息來說是個十分消極的態度