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  • Hello, welcome back to The Note. Continues to be a very difficult talk or think about markets,

    嗨,歡迎回到 The Note。最近談論市場仍然十分困難,

  • when the news about the geopolitical situations the terrorists aftering Paris is still so fresh.

    因為地理政治情勢的新聞和巴黎恐怖攻擊對大家來說仍記憶猶新。

  • However, markets don't seem to be so skirmish.

    無論如何,市場似乎相較之下平靜許多。

  • We saw a remarkable rally in the circumstances across Europian stock markets stay particularly in France.

    歐洲的股票市場目前重整情形令人刮目相看(尤其是法國)

  • Meanwhile, here in The States, The S&P turns down in the afternoon but nothing too dramatic.

    同時,美國的標準普爾指數於今天下午稍稍下滑,但仍在估計範圍內。

  • The key difference between those two markets being, of course, that's the Europian market closed before the very alarming use matters of disexpected

    這兩個市場的主要差異在於,歐洲市場在哈瓦那恐怖攻擊之前就已關閉;

  • plans terrorist attack in Havana came across the wires while that happened while US stock markets were still trading.

    但那時美國的股票市場 交易仍持續進行。

  • More broadly, away from the stock markets, I suspect the most significant markets must be looking at this point, are the metals.

    宏觀來說,撇開股票市場不看,我認為最密切觀察這點的 非金屬市場莫屬了。

  • Now if we take a look at gold, it has a very sharp sell off today, is now down about ten percent from a height gain after a rebound,

    我們可以稍微看看黃金的走向,今天急劇下跌,繼高增益之後又下降了十個百分點。

  • about a month ago it's now a new low for a year and that you can see,

    相較於一個月前,又再度創了新低。

  • it's loft into a quite significant down trains.

    這樣的下跌十分顯著。

  • You will normally expect gold to benefit from safe payment buying from people or worried about the geopolitical situation but this point people plainly aren't worried about that.

    通常大家預期黃金會因保險付款而獲利、或是擔心地理政治的局勢,但現在這似乎都不是首要考量。

  • Instead, the strength of the dollar which goes with the belief that the FED will be raising rates is helping to push gold down.

    相反地,大家預期美聯會將使美元生息,也因次壓抑了黃金的成長。

  • Now if we take a look at a very different metal, copper, as we mostly know the most important to be industrial metals,

    來看看另一種金屬:銅。我們都知道銅是最重要的工業金屬之一,

  • That's also have another sell off today is now, let's say fresh post crisis low , barely any higher than it was a decade ago,

    現在的價錢是繼危機之後的新低,幾乎不比十年前高。

  • think all of the growth that China has managed in the interim, it is not good to push copper prices up,

    我們由中國在過渡期的經歷可以看出,哄抬銅的價錢並沒有好處,

  • plainly showing continued very great concerns world about industrial or manufacturing economy.

    僅僅顯示世界對於工業經濟及製造經濟前景的擔憂。

  • You can also put this together for the force of foreign exchange of the emerging markets and continued strength in the dollar.

    以外幣兌換的觀點來看,美元持續成長,

  • There are a number of areas where the pressure on the FED not to raise rates on the concern there may be some kind of emerging market crisis could be building.

    也有些特定的領域仍對美聯會施壓、不希望美元生息,因為這樣可能會替潛在市場帶來危機。

  • There is also a belief which is helping to buy stock markets,

    另外也有人相信,這樣可以幫助買下股票市場,

  • the latest geopolitical news could give central banks a get out of jail free card,

    因為最近的地理政治局勢彷彿給了央行豁免權,

  • an excuse not to raise rates if there is a period of high uncertainty that there is always a good justification not to raise rates.

    讓他們因現階段的不確定性而有藉口不升息。

  • Hence, we have this rather strange picture where markets such as industrial metals or foreign exchanges,

    因此,我們似乎有種憧憬是 工業用金屬或是外幣兌換

  • suggesting very difficult problems when it comes to attempting to raise rates,

    可以顯示出 對於美元升息來說,當下的情勢是如何艱難

  • while stock markets are showing equanimity as is in many ways the gold price

    股票市場和黃金價格目前都較為穩定

  • You could argue and I might agree,

    你可能不同意,我也將同意你的看法

  • but this is really rather worryingly relaxed attitude by markets to some very scary news.

    但是這對於市場的壞消息來說是個十分消極的態度

Hello, welcome back to The Note. Continues to be a very difficult talk or think about markets,

嗨,歡迎回到 The Note。最近談論市場仍然十分困難,

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B1 中級 中文 美國腔 FinancialTimes 市場 股票 黃金 地理 金屬

風暴後的平靜 I 作者簡介 (Calm after the storm I Authers Note)

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    Kristi Yang 發佈於 2021 年 01 月 14 日
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