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  • We are getting to the look ahead, the Year Ahead for Businessweek 2016, tell us what's on tap.

    現在來到前瞻的時刻了,我們來看看 2016 年彭博商業週刊有些什麼預測吧。

  • This is our third annual Year Ahead issue. We're doing it in conjunction with a conference.


  • It's always a frightening task to predict the future, so our aim is just to give readers enough information,


  • so they can evaluate what they 're doing as the year goes on.


  • Interest rates has to be now, I mean here, all day every day, we talk interest rate predictions.


  • So David loves pointing out that half of our guests say, "Who cares?"

    以至於 David 總愛指出,我們半數以上的來賓都認為,「誰在乎利率啊」?

  • Everyone cares, it's a big theme. (Let's talk about it some more.)


  • Well, so we make some predictions on interest rate based on, you know, the Bloomberg survey of economists.


  • And some of it is sort of predictable, the idea is that US rates will go up to 1.2-5 percent by the end of next year

    而某些利率其實是可以預測的,例如明年底,美國的利率將會上升到 1.2%-5%,

  • although of course who knows when FED is actually gonna raise rates.


  • People are beginning to think instead of December it might be March, but of course nobody knows.


  • And then we have countries like China, (and) India, and Russia lowering rates as they try to stimulate their economy.


  • I think the idea is that China will probably go to 4.20 percent, not a huge change, but again trying to stimulate their economy.

    我想中國應該會調降至 4.20%,雖然沒有什麼大改變,但仍然是為了刺激經濟而努力。

  • And the UK and EU is probably gonna hold pretty steady, not making money moves at all. UK will probably go up a little bit.


  • I know the next topic number 2 matters to you. (Well, which is?) Apple's role in China?


  • So Apple has a complicated situation in China because just like in the US, a lot of people already have smart phones,


  • so growth and smart phone shipments are supposed to go up maybe 1 percent that's down from 20 percent last year.

    因此銷售量和運貨量都應該上升 1%,而那比去年的 20% 還要低了些。

  • But Tim Cook still thinks it's a great market for them. He's still investing there. He thinks they'll continue to grow


  • even as the market slows down. They're investing a lot in hiring engineers to create Apps that are more focused on the Chinese market.


  • They're planning to open more stores. I think they have 24 now. They hope to go to 40 by the end of the year.

    他們打算設立更多店面。我想他們目前有 24 間,他們希望在明年底可以擴展到 40 間。

  • So he is completely doubling down on China. So David, they're big already in China, as for sales how big can they get in China?


  • I think they can get a lot bigger in China. You know, in China Apple is sort of like a bald man on steroids.


  • They are a much higher fashion product than they are here. And as the middle class grows in China and they are very luxury oriented.


  • I think the iPhone is surprisingly well-positioned in China

    我想,iPhone 在中國的定位是出乎意料的穩固,

  • despite the fact that there are literally hundreds of Chinese clones of the iPhone, people in China still prefer Apple.

    儘管 iPhone 在那裏幾乎有上百種以上的山寨款,中國人還是更喜歡 iPhone。

  • But there is a slowing of growth in China overall we've seen and talked about... (but there's also)


  • But is cell phone an exception to that role?


  • I think it's an exception in part because the government's big focus is on consumption growth,


  • so even though the economy may slow, the government's doing everything it can to push people to buy stuff.


  • And I think that (Apple) iPhone is one of the things they wanna buy.

    同時 iPhone 也正好是人們想要買的東西。

  • So it's not necessarily you think Apple has a complicated situation,


  • the complicated situation is merely getting in with all of those consumers and that Apple love.


  • Apple's complicated situation is that they have to keep executing at extraordinary scale with a hardware, which is not easy.


  • Well guess what, look at history, they're doing it. (They have done it well so far...) You gotta give us number 3.


  • Number 3, we'll talk about Exxon. Exxon, (an) incredibly successful company, faces a transition next year when they'll announce


  • a successor to Rex Tillerson, who will retire in 2017. Obviously they're dealing with lower oil prices,

    即將在 2017 年退休的 Rex Tillerson 的接班人。很顯然,他們面對著低油價的局勢,

  • and the prospect that oil prices are not gonna go up a whole lot next year.


  • And they have a choice to make between focusing on someone who is in charge of,


  • you know, pumping oil and focusing on someone who is in charge of refining.


  • And their big problem is there isn't a whole lot more oil in the world to develop right now.


  • They have been stalled in Russia because of sanctions, so it's a big challenge ahead for them.


  • That's a big company and a big job for somebody. (without a doubt)


  • So Bloomberg Business Week's Ellen Pollock, thank you so much for joining us. (Thank you.)

    彭博商業週刊的 Ellen Pollock,感謝你今天的參與。(也謝謝你)

We are getting to the look ahead, the Year Ahead for Businessweek 2016, tell us what's on tap.

現在來到前瞻的時刻了,我們來看看 2016 年彭博商業週刊有些什麼預測吧。


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