This is our third annual Year Ahead issue. We're doing it in conjunction with a conference.

這個前瞻專刊已經進入第三年了，而今年我們也同時舉辦相關會議。

It's always a frightening task to predict the future, so our aim is just to give readers enough information,

要預測未來總是件膽顫心驚的事，所以我們的目標是給讀者足夠的資訊，

so they can evaluate what they 're doing as the year goes on.

讓他們得以評估在來年應該做些什麼投資或調整。

Interest rates has to be now, I mean here, all day every day, we talk interest rate predictions.

利率一定是首要，因為我們一天到晚都在這裡預測利率的走向。

So David loves pointing out that half of our guests say, "Who cares?"

以至於 David 總愛指出，我們半數以上的來賓都認為，「誰在乎利率啊」？

Everyone cares, it's a big theme. (Let's talk about it some more.)

大家都很在乎好嗎，這也的確是個大議題。（我們再多談一些吧。）

Well, so we make some predictions on interest rate based on, you know, the Bloomberg survey of economists.

這個嘛，我們根據彭博對經濟學家的調查，做出了一些利率的預測。

And some of it is sort of predictable, the idea is that US rates will go up to 1.2-5 percent by the end of next year

而某些利率其實是可以預測的，例如明年底，美國的利率將會上升到 1.2%-5%，

although of course who knows when FED is actually gonna raise rates.

儘管誰也不知道聯準會何時要準備升息。

People are beginning to think instead of December it might be March, but of course nobody knows.

大家開始認為應該是三月調升而非十二月，但當然沒人知道。

And then we have countries like China, (and) India, and Russia lowering rates as they try to stimulate their economy.

另外，中國、印度和俄羅斯等國家，將會調降利率以刺激經濟發展。

I think the idea is that China will probably go to 4.20 percent, not a huge change, but again trying to stimulate their economy.

我想中國應該會調降至 4.20%，雖然沒有什麼大改變，但仍然是為了刺激經濟而努力。

And the UK and EU is probably gonna hold pretty steady, not making money moves at all. UK will probably go up a little bit.

至於英國和歐盟的利率應該會維持穩定，不會有大的波動。英國應該會稍微調升一些。

I know the next topic number 2 matters to you. (Well, which is?) Apple's role in China?

我知道你很關心第二個議題。（哦，是什麼呢？）蘋果在中國的定位？

So Apple has a complicated situation in China because just like in the US, a lot of people already have smart phones,

蘋果在中國的情況相當複雜，因為如同在美國，很多人都已經擁有智慧型手機了，

so growth and smart phone shipments are supposed to go up maybe 1 percent that's down from 20 percent last year.

因此銷售量和運貨量都應該上升 1%，而那比去年的 20% 還要低了些。

But Tim Cook still thinks it's a great market for them. He's still investing there. He thinks they'll continue to grow

但庫克仍然認為中國是個很棒的市場。他持續在那裏投資，他認為蘋果會繼續成長，

even as the market slows down. They're investing a lot in hiring engineers to create Apps that are more focused on the Chinese market.

儘管市場逐漸飽和。他們聘用了很多工程師來設計專為中國市場打造的軟體。

They're planning to open more stores. I think they have 24 now. They hope to go to 40 by the end of the year.

他們打算設立更多店面。我想他們目前有 24 間，他們希望在明年底可以擴展到 40 間。

So he is completely doubling down on China. So David, they're big already in China, as for sales how big can they get in China?

庫克正以兩倍的速度在中國擴張版圖。David，他們目前在中國已經很強勢了，那他們在銷售量方面要怎麼提升呢？

I think they can get a lot bigger in China. You know, in China Apple is sort of like a bald man on steroids.

我想他們的成長空間還很大。在中國，蘋果公司就像禿頭的人使用類固醇一樣（註：會加速掉髮）。

They are a much higher fashion product than they are here. And as the middle class grows in China and they are very luxury oriented.

比起在美國，蘋果在中國可是個相當流行的商品。此外，中國重視物質享受的中產階級逐漸增加。

I think the iPhone is surprisingly well-positioned in China

我想，iPhone 在中國的定位是出乎意料的穩固，

despite the fact that there are literally hundreds of Chinese clones of the iPhone, people in China still prefer Apple.

儘管 iPhone 在那裏幾乎有上百種以上的山寨款，中國人還是更喜歡 iPhone。

But there is a slowing of growth in China overall we've seen and talked about... (but there's also)

但就我們的觀察和討論看來，中國整體的經濟發展是趨緩的（但那裏還有...）

But is cell phone an exception to that role?

在這個情況下，手機是否是個例外呢？

I think it's an exception in part because the government's big focus is on consumption growth,

我想它的確是個例外，一方面，政府的重心是刺激消費，

so even though the economy may slow, the government's doing everything it can to push people to buy stuff.

所以儘管經濟發展遲緩，政府仍然竭盡所能地鼓勵人們掏出荷包。

And I think that (Apple) iPhone is one of the things they wanna buy.

同時 iPhone 也正好是人們想要買的東西。

So it's not necessarily you think Apple has a complicated situation,

因此，蘋果在中國的處境可能不如你想像的那麼複雜，

the complicated situation is merely getting in with all of those consumers and that Apple love.

它之所以詭譎，只是因為這個議題和消費者與蘋果狂熱扯上關係。

Apple's complicated situation is that they have to keep executing at extraordinary scale with a hardware, which is not easy.

蘋果的複雜處在於，他們必須持續且大量地生產，而這並非易事。

Well guess what, look at history, they're doing it. (They have done it well so far...) You gotta give us number 3.

但你知道嗎，如果我們回顧歷史，他們一直以來都在做這件事。（而且到目前為止也很成功）請你告訴我們第三項吧。

Number 3, we'll talk about Exxon. Exxon, (an) incredibly successful company, faces a transition next year when they'll announce

第三點，我們要談的是間非常成功的公司，艾克森美孚。他們正面臨著一個轉捩點，因為明年他們要宣布

a successor to Rex Tillerson, who will retire in 2017. Obviously they're dealing with lower oil prices,

即將在 2017 年退休的 Rex Tillerson 的接班人。很顯然，他們面對著低油價的局勢，

and the prospect that oil prices are not gonna go up a whole lot next year.

以及連帶而來，明年一整年可能都不會上升多少的慘淡前景。

And they have a choice to make between focusing on someone who is in charge of,

此外，他們必須在以下兩種候選人之間做出決定：

you know, pumping oil and focusing on someone who is in charge of refining.

要找個負責鑽井的，或是負責精煉的。

And their big problem is there isn't a whole lot more oil in the world to develop right now.

他們的大麻煩是，現下已經沒剩多少油可以開發了。

They have been stalled in Russia because of sanctions, so it's a big challenge ahead for them.

他們在俄羅斯的開採已經因裁罰而停止，所以他們眼前困難重重。

That's a big company and a big job for somebody. (without a doubt)

這對繼任者來說，同時是間大公司，但也是一份艱鉅的工作啊。（無庸置疑地）

So Bloomberg Business Week's Ellen Pollock, thank you so much for joining us. (Thank you.)

彭博商業週刊的 Ellen Pollock，感謝你今天的參與。（也謝謝你）