How will banks look like at the end of it? So, Michael, you have been looking exactly these subjects. Who do you think is doing better in trying to find the new model?

最終銀行會是怎麼樣呢? 麥可就你對他們的觀察，你覺得誰會是新的指標與典範呢?

It's difficult to say at the moment. The funny thing about the situation now is that it doesn't look like any of the banks

在現在的狀況還很難說，說起來有點弔詭，

can really tell what's gonna be happening over the next 3 to 5 years or what their business model might look like at the end of that period.

目前還沒有任何一家銀行能夠預測未來三到五年會有怎麼樣的變化，或是未來他們的商業模式會是如何。

A lot of the regulation that is coming over the last 5 to 7 years is now in place, but there's still more to come, so it's very difficult for banks to say here's how we gonna look in 3 or 5 years time,

許多三、五年前訂定的規則條例，現在都已正式上路，但在未來還會有更多難以預測之事，因此銀行也無法確切預測未來走勢。

given that they still have a lot of enormous problems around profitability, capital raising, revenue, that sort of stuff.

諸如龐大的收益率問題、資本提升、稅收等。

And profitability boils splashed all over the news recently, particularly one case.

近期的收益率持續翻漲，引起了關注，特別是這個案例。

Yeah, not a great month for Deutsch bank. At the end of the 3rd quarters, they announced a very surprising 6 billion Euro loss.

沒錯，對德國銀行來說這個月不太好過。他們在第三季末宣布虧損高達歐元六十億元。

Mainly due to the actual capital needs go to prop up their investment bank. The new CEO John Crane has coming after, in the summer with the clear remit to re-positioning in the bank as a whole.

主要是資本需求來支撐這些投資銀行。新上任的總裁約翰從今夏接管後開始著手重整銀行內部的工作。

They're obviously gonna have to take a very hard look in the investment bank if it's costing them so much money. It's very difficult for them to re-position it,

若持續虧損這麼多錢，他們的確需要在投資銀行的業務上多下點功夫。然而要重整是有困難的，

given that there's enormous changes that are going on at the moment. But obviously that was quite a surprise to the industry I think.

因為在這個時機點，可能會有很大的不定數。但我想對產業來說會是不錯的驚喜。

So you mentioned Deutsch Bank, which is obviously bank based, and you were poised on who is doing better between the European Investment Banks and the ones that's headquartered in the States. Is that different there?

你認為像德國銀行這樣歐洲在地的投資銀行和把總部設在美國的銀行，哪個比較好呢? 又有什麼樣的差別?

It's a clear leave for the US at the moment. If you look at the revenue tables, The vast majority of the top 10 profit-raising investment banks are American J.P. Morgen at the top of the tree for the moment.

絕對是把總部設在美國的那些銀行，尤其在這個時機。當你看稅收時，就會發現收益成長在排名前十的是美國摩根大通銀行，也是同類產業表現最佳的。

European Banks are still stuck in kind of the next existential crisis. They don't know really what they want to be, and if they know what they want to be, it's difficult for them to get there, because of the regulation, and some of the market changes in Europe.

歐洲銀行則還處在存續危機中，他們不清楚自己未來的走向，同時也礙於條例上的限制以及歐洲市場的改變。

The American banks got a lot of their, sort of hard work done quite earlier to the crisis. They have less of the bad asset hung over than the European banks.

美國銀行相對較早解決了這樣的危機，他們較歐洲銀行有較少的負資產。

They have a stronger economy in which to exist and to grow. And they also can thank their regulators, which is not a phrase you'll use you hear very often for banks.

因為他們相對有較好的經濟體系，同時他們也得感謝他們的管理者，因為一般來說這在金融銀行界是很少見的。

But they all can thank the regulators just for getting a lot of work done quickly. Dodd-Frank was released in 2010, a lot of the implementation work, higher capital ratio, higher liquidity ratio, market structure, are all less been done in the US.

他們多虧了這些修法的管理者才能夠如此快速、順利的復甦。多德弗蘭克法案在2010年頒布，並開始實行了多項，高資本利率、流動利率、市場結構等都降地了經濟蕭條的狀況。

In Europe, that's still ongoing, the European banks are still sort of learning to adjust to or trying to understand what the new rules. In Europe, there are the equivalent of Dodd-Frank mean for them.

在歐洲，則是持續的發生，歐洲銀行們還在學著適應、了解新法案。在歐洲則也有訂定類似多德佛蘭克法案的條例。

It's difficult task for them. A lot of the investment banks here have cut down on their trading activities because it might have capital that is needed to go towards them, it's just unsustainable.

這對他們來說是一個困難。很多的投資銀行開始縮減他們投資的活動，因為有部分的資金是要預留準備面對不穩定的經濟局勢。

They've tried to move to a kind of a cross-asset bases where they merge a lot of business lines together and let customers deal with them in one goal,

他們也試著朝向一個跨資產的模式，像是整合不同的商業鏈。

which is designed to cut cost, and to make investment banks more flexible, more efficient. But it doesn't mean they can hold less risk. They are offering smaller range of product, so...

這麼一來能減少成本，投資銀行更加彈性、有效率。但這不代表能降低風險，此外他們也將降低產品的多元性。

The regulatory work and it's the economy is definitely playing in favor to US's banks, so we shall see what's going to happen in the near future we'll catch up with you soon.

立法監督者和整個經濟體絕對是為了美國本身的銀行好，所以我們可以靜觀未來會有怎麼樣的改變，並且和你們分享。