In the next decade?

下一世紀呢?

Can we end hunger,

我們可否

achieve gender equality,

在接下來的15年內

halt climate change,

結束飢荒,達成性別平等

all in the next 15 years?

停止氣候災變嗎?

Well, according to the governments of the world, yes we can.

是的,根據各國政府的說法 我們可以做得到。

In the last few days, the leaders of the world,

最近這幾天,全世界的領導人

meeting at the UN in New York,

在紐約聯合國總部舉行會議

agreed a new set of Global Goals

會議中達成了幾項新的協議

for the development of the world to 2030.

就是2030年世界發展目標

And here they are:

而他們就在這上面

these goals are the product of a massive consultation exercise.

這些目標就是大量 諮詢活動後產生的結果。

The Global Goals are who we, humanity, want to be.

這些全球目標就是 我們人類將來要達成的狀況。

Now that's the plan, but can we get there?

計劃雖然是這樣, 但我們做得到嗎?

Can this vision for a better world really be achieved?

這個美好的願景我們真的能達到嗎?

Well, I'm here today because we've run the numbers,

好的,我今天來到這裡 是因為我們已經跑完數據了。

and the answer, shockingly,

而答案,有點震驚...

is that maybe we actually can.

那就是,也許我們真的做得到

But not with business as usual.

但跟往常沒有關係。

Now, the idea that the world is going to get a better place

現在,世界將更美好的想法

may seem a little fanciful.

也許似乎有點天真。

Watch the news every day and the world seems to be going backwards, not forwards.

從每天新聞看到全世界 似乎在退步而不是進步。

And let's be frank:

我們坦白地說:

it's pretty easy to be skeptical about grand announcements

這些從聯合國出來的重大宣示

coming out of the UN.

很容會被遭到質疑。

But please, I invite you to suspend your disbelief for just a moment.

但請別誤會,我請各位先暫緩一下你們的懷疑。

Because back in 2001,

因為,回顧一下西元2001年，

the UN agreed another set of goals, the Millennium Development Goals.

聯合國各國當時有協議出 一些千禧年的發展目標，

And the flagship target there was to halve the proportion of people

而主要目標就是在2015年前

living in poverty by 2015.

減少50%生活在貧困中的人口比例。

The target was to take from a baseline of 1990,

目標是以西元1990年為基準線，

when 36 percent of the world's population lived in poverty,

當時有36％的世界人口生活在貧困之中，

to get to 18 percent poverty this year.

而今年目標需降到18％。

Did we hit this target?

我們有達到18%的目標嗎?

Well, no, we didn't.

嗯...不,我們沒有。

We exceeded it.

我們超越了18%。

This year, global poverty is going to fall to 12 percent.

今年全球貧困人口將會下降至12％

Now, that's still not good enough,

但,這仍然不夠好,

and the world does still have plenty of problems.

世界上 的確仍存有很多問題。

But the pessimists and doomsayers who say that the world can't get better

但那些說世界不會更好的 悲觀主義者和災難預言家，

are simply wrong.

他們基本上是錯的。

So how did we achieve this success?

那麼,我們是怎麼達成這些目標的呢?

Well, a lot of it was because of economic growth.

是的,有很多的原因是經濟成長。

Some of the biggest reductions in poverty were in countries such as China and India,

一些最大幅度減少貧困的國家,

which have seen rapid economic growth in recent years.

例如近幾年經濟快速 增長的中國和印度

So can we pull off the same trick again?

那麼,我們可以用相同的伎倆 而再次的達成嗎?

Can economic growth get us to the Global Goals?

經濟成長會讓我們 達成全球目標嗎?

Well, to answer that question,

好的,要回答這個問題前,

we need to benchmark where the world is today against the Global Goals

我們需要標示出 當今全世界離目標有多遠

and figure out how far we have to travel.

並算出我們還要付出 多少努力才能達到目標。

But that ain't easy,

但這並不容易

because the Global Goals aren't just ambitious,

因為這個全球目標不僅有抱負,

they're also pretty complicated.

且他們還相當複雜

Over 17 goals, there are then 169 targets

超過17個目標,有169個目標

and literally hundreds of indicators.

和數百個確切的數字指標。

Also, while some of the goals are pretty specific --

此外,雖然有些目標是非常具體

end hunger --

例如終結飢荒——

others are a lot vaguer --

但有些目標還是很模糊的，

promote peaceful and tolerant societies.

例如推廣合諧與包容的社會。

So to help us with this benchmarking,

所以為了幫助我們訂立標準，

I'm going to use a tool called the Social Progress Index.

我將使用一個工具 稱之為社會進步指數。

What this does is measures all the stuff the Global Goals are trying to achieve,

這樣做是為了評量 全球目標到達的狀況

but sums it up into a single number that we can use as our benchmark

把它彙整成一個數字 使我們能夠用這個數字標準

and track progress over time.

來隨時追蹤目標的進度。

The Social Progress Index basically asks three fundamental questions

社會進步指標基本上

about a society.

有3個要求的評量基準。

First of all, does everyone have the basic needs of survival:

首先,每個人是否有基本的生存所需：

food, water, shelter, safety?

食物、水、遮風擋雨的地方、安全問題?

Secondly, does everyone have the building blocks of a better life:

第二,每個人是否可以 追求更美好的生活基石：

education, information, health and a sustainable environment?

教育、資訊、健康、穩定的環境？

And does everyone have the opportunity to improve their lives,

及每個人是否有 改善他們生活的機會?

through rights, freedom of choice, freedom from discrimination,

完整的權利、選擇的自由 避免被歧視的自由?

and access to the world's most advanced knowledge?

及獲得全世界最先進知識的權利?

The Social Progress Index sums all this together using 52 indicators

社會進步指標採用了52項指標

to create an aggregate score on a scale of 0 to 100.

產生了一個0到100的分數。

And what we find is that there's a wide diversity of performance

而我們發現全世界各個國家

in the world today.

都有不一樣的表現。

The highest performing country, Norway, scores 88.

最高分是挪威 88分。

The lowest performing country, Central African Republic, scores 31.

最低分是中非共和國 31分

And we can add up all the countries together,

我們可以加總所有國家的分數

weighting for the different population sizes,

並依不一樣的人口 數量做加權平均

and that global score is 61.

得到一個全球平均分數61分

In concrete terms,

嚴格來說,

that means that the average human being is living on a level of social progress

意思就是全人類的 平均社會進步水平

about the same of Cuba or Kazakhstan today.

相當於當今的古巴 或哈薩克斯坦的水平。

That's where we are today: 61 out of 100.

這就是我們今日的水平: 滿分100分拿到了61分。

What do we have to get to to achieve the Global Goals?

我們要做那些事 才能達成這些目標呢?

Now, the Global Goals are certainly ambitious,

現在,這些世界目標 的確是具有野心,

but they're not about turning the world into Norway in just 15 years.

但也不是說要把 他們在短短15年內, 變成挪威那樣的高分。

So having looked at the numbers, my estimate is that a score of 75

所以仔細地考慮一下分數 我的估計是75分

would not only be a giant leap forward in human well-being,

這在人類幸福上 不僅是一個巨大的飛躍。

it would also count as hitting the Global Goals target.

也意味著可達成的全球目標。

So there's our target, 75 out of 100.

所以我們的目標是: 從100分裡拿到75分。

Can we get there?

我們達的到嗎?

Well, the Social Progress Index can help us calculate this,

好的,社會進步指數 可以幫助我們計算,

because as you might have noticed,

也許你已經注意到,

there are no economic indicators in there;

這裡面沒有經濟指標,

there's no GDP or economic growth in the Social Progress Index model.

在社會進步指數中 沒有包含GDP或經濟成長。

And what that lets us do is understand the relationship

而這是為了要讓我們理解

between economic growth and social progress.

經濟成長與社會進步的相互關係。

Let me show you on this chart.

我來秀一張圖表給你們看一看,

So here on the vertical axis, I've put social progress,

垂直軸線代表社會進步指標,

the stuff the Global Goals are trying to achieve.

也就是全球目標要達成的分數。

Higher is better.

越高越好。

And then on the horizontal axis, is GDP per capita.

水平軸線代表 -人均GDP

Further to the right means richer.

越往右邊 代表越有錢

And in there, I'm now going to put all the countries of the world,

然後我在這邊放進全部國家,

each one represented by a dot,

每一點代表一個國家。

and on top of that I'm going to put the regression line

在圖上面 我放進了回歸線

that shows the average relationship.

代表平均關係值。

And what this tells us is that as we get richer,

圖上告訴我們,即使我們變更富有了,

social progress does tend to improve.

社會進步指標卻沒有傾向增加。

However, as we get richer, each extra dollar of GDP

雖然我們變更富有了 但我們在GDP每多賺的一塊錢

is buying us less and less social progress.

想要在社會進步上有相對的 購買力已經越來越難了。

And now we can use this information to start building our forecast.

我們現在可以用這個資訊 來建立我們的預測。

So here is the world in 2015.

這裡是2015年。

We have a social progress score of 61

我們的社會進步指標分數是61分

and a GDP per capita of $14,000.

人均GDP是14,000美金,

And the place we're trying to get to, remember, is 75, that Global Goals target.

而我們要達到的 全球目標記住是75分。

So here we are today, $14,000 per capita GDP.

好的,我們現在是 14,000美金的人均GDP

How rich are we going to be in 2030?

那我們在西元2030年 會達到多少金額呢?

That's what we need to know next.

這是下一步我們要知道的。

Well, the best forecast we can find comes from the US Department of Agriculture,

好,我們能得到的最佳預測是從 美國的農業發展局找到的,

which forecasts 3.1 percent average global economic growth

他們對全球經濟成長 在接下來的15年內的預測是:

over the next 15 years,

平均增長值約 3.1%

which means that in 2030, if they're right,

如果他們預估正確 那麼在2030年,

per capita GDP will be about $23,000.

人均GDP 將會達到23,000美金。

So now the question is: if we get that much richer,

那麼問題是: 如果我們真的那麼富有了,

how much social progress are we going to get?

我們的社會進步指標 會到達多少分數?

Well, we asked a team of economists at Deloitte

好,我們問了Deloitte的經濟學家

who checked and crunched the numbers,

他們核對並研究了這些數據,

and they came back and said, well, look: if the world's average wealth goes

然後他們回應說:來,你們看 如果全球的人均GDP

from $14,000 a year to $23,000 a year,

從14,000美金 成長到23,000美金,

social progress is going to increase

社會進步指標會從

from 61 to 62.4.

61分增加到62.4分。

(Laughter)

(笑聲)

Just 62.4. Just a tiny increase.

只有62.4分, 才進步那麼一點點...

Now this seems a bit strange.

現在,這看起來有點奇怪。

Economic growth seems to have really helped

經濟成長看起來似乎對

in the fight against poverty,

對抗貧窮有實質的幫助,

but it doesn't seem to be having much impact

但,它看起來對要 達成的全球目標。

on trying to get to the Global Goals.

似乎沒有那麼大的影響力。

So what's going on?

所以,倒底是怎麼回事?

Well, I think there are two things.

好的,我認為有2件事:

The first is that in a way, we're the victims of our own success.

首先,我們自己是 自我成功的受害者。

We've used up the easy wins from economic growth,

我們用盡了從經濟成長中 所帶來的好處。

and now we're moving on to harder problems.

現在我們卻要 面臨更困難的問題

And also, we know that economic growth comes with costs as well as benefits.

而且我們也知道 經濟成長伴隨著利益與代價。

There are costs to the environment, costs from new health problems like obesity.

如環境破壞的代價 肥胖症帶來健康問題的代價。

So that's the bad news.

所以這是壞消息。

We're not going to get to the Global Goals just by getting richer.

我們不能依賴變的更富有 來達到我們的全球目標。

So are the pessimists right?

所以悲觀主義者他們是對的囉?

Well, maybe not.

嗯...也許沒有

Because the Social Progress Index also has some very good news.

因為社會進步指標 也有很好的消息。

Let me take you back to that regression line.

讓我帶你回到那條回歸線看一看,

So this is the average relationship between GDP and social progress,

它是GDP與 社會進步的平均關係。

and this is what our last forecast was based on.

這是我們最近預測的基準。

But as you saw already,

但就如你所看到的,

there is actually lots of noise around this trend line.

這條趨勢線 實際上有很多的雜音。

What that tells us, quite simply,

它告訴我們一件 相當簡單的事

is that GDP is not destiny.

就是GDP不是 我們唯一的使命。

We have countries that are underperforming

我們有很多國家 相較他們的財富而言

on social progress, relative to their wealth.

在社會進步方面都表現不佳。

Russia has lots of natural resource wealth,

俄羅斯有很多天然資源資產,

but lots of social problems.

但卻有很多社會問題。

China has boomed economically,

中國大陸經濟成長驚人

but hasn't made much headway on human rights or environmental issues.

但對人權問題及環境議題上 卻沒有多大的進展。

India has a space program and millions of people without toilets.

印度有航太計畫但 仍有幾百萬人沒廁所。

Now, on the other hand, we have countries that are overperforming

另一方面,現在有很多國家 在GDP相對應的社會進步上

on social progress relative to their GDP.

已經超乎表現。

Costa Rica has prioritized education, health and environmental sustainability,

哥斯大黎加已經將教育、健康、環境永續問題 列入他們的優先考慮議題

and as a result, it's achieving a very high level of social progress,

而結果是它在社會進步上 達到很高的水平，

despite only having a rather modest GDP.

儘管他們在GDP表現上相對溫和。

And Costa Rica's not alone.

但哥斯大黎加並不孤單。

From poor countries like Rwanda to richer countries like New Zealand,

從貧窮國家像是盧安達 到較富有的國家紐西蘭,

we see that it's possible to get lots of social progress,

我們得知要得到很大的 社會進步是有可能的

even if your GDP is not so great.

即使你的GDP表現不是那麼亮麗。

And that's really important, because it tells us two things.

而這很重要,它告訴我們2件事:

First of all, it tells us that we already in the world have the solutions

首先,它告訴我們,我們已經在 試圖解決全球目標的問題上

to many of the problems that the Global Goals are trying to solve.

已擁有很多解決方法了。

It also tells us that we're not slaves to GDP.

它也告訴我們 我們不是GDP的奴役。

Our choices matter: if we prioritize the well-being of people,

這跟選擇有關: 如果我們把人類幸福擺第一

then we can make a lot more progress than our GDP might expect.

那相對於期望的GDP增長 我們會有很大的進步。

How much? Enough to get us to the Global Goals?

多大?足夠我們 達成全球目標嗎?

Well, let's look at some numbers.

好的,讓我們來看一些數據。

What we know already: the world today is scoring 61 on social progress,

我們已經知道:現今全球的 社會進步指標平均在61分

and the place we want to get to is 75.

而我們想達到的分數是75分。

If we rely on economic growth alone,

如果我們僅單純的依賴經濟成長

we're going to get to 62.4.

我們只能達到62.4分。

So let's assume now that we can get the countries that are currently

那麼讓我們假設 把目前這些低於表現的國家

underperforming on social progress -- the Russia, China, Indias --

像是俄羅斯、中國大陸、印度...等

just up to the average.

把他們計算到平均值就好。

How much social progress does that get us?

我們在社會進步指數上 會得到幾分?

Well, that takes us to 65.

我們會得到65分。

It's a bit better, but still quite a long way to go.

有比較好一點,但仍然 有很長的一段路要走。

So let's get a little bit more optimistic and say,

那讓我們樂觀一點地說

what if every country gets a little bit better

如果每個國家 多下點功夫在把財富

at turning its wealth into well-being?

轉換成幸福這件事上呢?

Well then, we get to 67.

那麼我們會得到67分。

And now let's be even bolder still.

現在讓我們更大膽的假設。

What if every country in the world chose to be like Costa Rica

如果每個國家 把人類幸福擺第一順位

in prioritizing human well-being,

與哥斯達黎加一樣,

using its wealth for the well-being of its citizens?

把資源投入在每位市民的幸福上 會得到幾分呢?

Well then, we get to nearly 73, very close to the Global Goals.

將近73分,很接近全球目標了。

Can we achieve the Global Goals?

我們可以達到全球目標嗎?

Certainly not with business as usual.

當然不能再走原路了。

Even a flood tide of economic growth is not going to get us there,

即使是經濟成長也不能撐腰我們。

if it just raises the mega-yachts and the super-wealthy

使我們不能不顧一切地 擁有奢華巨型遊艇和超級富豪

and leaves the rest behind.

而忽略其他類將。

If we're going to achieve the Global Goals we have to do things differently.

如果想達到全球目標, 我們必須做些不一樣的事。

We have to prioritize social progress, and really scale solutions

我們必須優先考量 社會的進步並認真的規劃

around the world.

世界各地的解決方案。

I believe the Global Goals are a historic opportunity,

我相信世界目標會是個歷史機會,

because the world's leaders have promised to deliver them.

因為全世界的領導人 已經承諾要達成這些目標。

Let's not dismiss the goals or slide into pessimism;

我們不要放棄目標 或陷入悲觀主義。

let's hold them to that promise.

讓我們堅持住這些承諾。

And we need to hold them to that promise by holding them accountable,

而且我們需要負責任地 堅持住這些承諾

tracking their progress all the way through the next 15 years.

在接下來的15年內 持續追蹤這些進度。

And I want to finish by showing you

最後結束前我要告訴 你們一個可行方法

a way to do that, called the People's Report Card.

它叫做人民報告卡。

The People's Report Card brings together all this data into a simple framework

人民報告卡匯集了所有的 數據到一個簡單的工作框架內

that we'll all be familiar with from our school days,

像是以前我們會認真看待

to hold them to account.

且大家孰悉的學校成績單。

It grades our performance on the Global Goals

它會對我們全球 目標表現作評分

on a scale from F to A,

從F到A，

where F is humanity at its worst, and A is humanity at its best.

F表示對人類最差 A表示對人類最好。