My name is Eric Li, and I was born here.

我是李世默 (艾瑞克) 這是我的出生地

But no, I wasn't born there.

但當時不是長那樣

This was where I was born:

而是這個樣子

Shanghai, at the height of the Cultural Revolution.

當時文化大革命 正在上海如火如荼地展開

My grandmother tells me that she heard

我祖母說她聽見了

the sound of gunfire along with my first cries.

我出生的啼聲及砲火之聲

When I was growing up, I was told a story

當我長大時，聽到了一種說法

that explained all I ever needed to know about humanity.

解釋了一切對人類應有的了解

It went like this.

它是這樣說的

All human societies develop in linear progression,

所有人類社會都以線性的方式進展

beginning with primitive society, then slave society,

由原始社會開始，接著依序是奴隸社會

feudalism, capitalism, socialism,

封建社會、資本主義及社會主義型社會

and finally, guess where we end up?

猜猜最後我們會進入哪種型態的社會呢?

Communism!

共產主義社會！

Sooner or later, all of humanity,

或早或晚，所有人類文明

regardless of culture, language, nationality,

無論文化、語言、國籍

will arrive at this final stage

最終都會達到此階段的

of political and social development.

政治及社會發展形式

The entire world's peoples will be unified

世界上各個民族將一統並達到

in this paradise on Earth

天上人間的境界

and live happily ever after.

從此過著幸福快樂的日子

But before we get there, we're engaged

但在那之前，我們面臨著

in a struggle between good and evil,

善與惡之間的掙扎

the good of socialism against the evil of capitalism,

善的社會主義與惡的資本主義對抗

and the good shall triumph.

善的一方終將獲勝

That, of course, was the meta-narrative

毫無疑問地，這後設敘述就是

distilled from the theories of Karl Marx.

馬克斯主義延伸而來的故事

And the Chinese bought it.

為中國人廣為相信

We were taught that grand story day in and day out.

中國時常以這套美好的故事來教導我們

It became part of us, and we believed in it.

成為我們生活的一環 也因此深信不疑

The story was a bestseller.

這是最流行的說法

About one third of the entire world's population

解釋世界上三分之一的人口

lived under that meta-narrative.

生活於這種後設敘述之中

Then, the world changed overnight.

接著，世界在一夕之間改變了

As for me, disillusioned by the failed religion of my youth,

對我而言，這是過去信仰的幻滅

I went to America and became a Berkeley hippie.

我到美國成為柏克萊的嬉皮族

(Laughter)

(笑聲)

Now, as I was coming of age, something else happened.

我成年之後，另外一件事發生了

As if one big story wasn't enough,

彷彿一種版本的說法還不夠

I was told another one.

我又聽到另一種說法

This one was just as grand.

聽起來也同樣偉大

It also claims that all human societies

它也說所有人類社會

develop in a linear progression towards a singular end.

以線性方式發展到單一的終點

This one went as follows:

它說

All societies, regardless of culture,

無論是哪種文化，所有社會

be it Christian, Muslim, Confucian,

不管是基督教、伊斯蘭教、儒教

must progress from traditional societies

都來自於傳統的社會

in which groups are the basic units

各族群為組成現代社會的基本單位

to modern societies in which atomized individuals

社會中的個人

are the sovereign units,

為統領單位

and all these individuals are, by definition, rational,

所有人皆為理性的個體

and they all want one thing:

都希望能夠擁有

the vote.

選票

Because they are all rational, once given the vote,

因為所有人都是理性的，只要擁有選票

they produce good government

就能選出好的政府

and live happily ever after.

並有美好結局

Paradise on Earth, again.

同樣達到地上的樂園

Sooner or later, electoral democracy will be

或早或晚，民選的民主政體

the only political system for all countries and all peoples,

將成為所有國家及民族的政體

with a free market to make them all rich.

擁有均富的自由市場

But before we get there, we're engaged in a struggle

但到達之前，勢必面臨著

between good and evil.

善惡之爭

(Laughter)

(笑聲)

The good belongs to those who are democracies

善為民主的一方

and are charged with a mission of spreading it

身負全人類的重大使命

around the globe, sometimes by force,

必要時以武力

against the evil of those who do not hold elections.

抵抗非民選的獨裁國家

(Video) George H.W. Bush: A new world order ...

(影片) 老布希：一個新的世界秩序...

(Video) George W. Bush: ... ending tyranny in our world ...

(影片) 小布希：...終結世界上的獨裁統治

(Video) Barack Obama: ... a single standard for all

(影片) 歐巴馬：...為所有執政者

who would hold power.

所共有的一套標準

Eric X. Li: Now --

這時

(Laughter) (Applause)

(笑聲) (掌聲)

This story also became a bestseller.

這也成為最流行的說法

According to Freedom House,

根據自由之家 (譯註：推廣民主自由的非政府組織)

the number of democracies went from 45 in 1970

民主國家的數量由 1970 年的 45 國

to 115 in 2010.

成長到 2010 年的 115 國

In the last 20 years, Western elites tirelessly

在過去 20 年間，西方菁英不辭辛勞

trotted around the globe selling this prospectus:

走訪世界各地宣傳以下理念：

Multiple parties fight for political power

多黨爭取政治權力

and everyone voting on them

以及民選機制

is the only path to salvation

才是唯一能夠拯救

to the long-suffering developing world.

長期受苦的發展中國家的途徑

Those who buy the prospectus are destined for success.

擁有這種信念的人終將成功

Those who do not are doomed to fail.

沒有的則必然失敗

But this time, the Chinese didn't buy it.

但這一次，中國人不再相信

Fool me once ...

上一次當... (譯註：上一次當為對方狡詐，上第二次當為自己笨)

(Laughter)

(笑聲) (譯註：上一次當為對方狡詐，上第二次當為自己笨)

The rest is history.

之後所發生的事，大家都已知道了

In just 30 years, China went from

中國在短短 30 年間

one of the poorest agricultural countries in the world

由世界上最窮的農業國之一

to its second-largest economy.

成為了第二大經濟體

Six hundred fifty million people

6.5 億的人口

were lifted out of poverty.

已脫離貧窮

Eighty percent of the entire world's poverty alleviation

當時世界上 80% 脫離貧窮的人口皆在中國

during that period happened in China.

當時世界上 80% 脫離貧窮的人口皆在中國

In other words, all the new and old democracies

換言之

put together amounted to a mere fraction

新舊各民主國家的總和也不及

of what a single, one-party state did without voting.

這一黨專制國家的表現

See, I grew up on this stuff: food stamps.

我從小仰賴的生活用品：糧票

Meat was rationed to a few hundred grams

有段時期肉類地配給

per person per month at one point.

為每人每月數百克

Needless to say, I ate all my grandmother's portions.

當然，我把奶奶的配給額吃光了

So I asked myself, what's wrong with this picture?

於是我問自己，這種機制有什麼問題

Here I am in my hometown,

在我家鄉裡

my business growing leaps and bounds.

我的事業不斷蒸蒸日上

Entrepreneurs are starting companies every day.

每天都有企業家創立公司

Middle class is expanding in speed and scale

中產階級不斷壯大且成長迅速

unprecedented in human history.

為人類史上前所未見

Yet, according to the grand story,

但根據之前的說法

none of this should be happening.

這些現象皆不應發生

So I went and did the only thing I could. I studied it.

於是我唯一能做的就是進行研究

Yes, China is a one-party state

確實，中國是一黨專制的國家

run by the Chinese Communist Party, the Party,

執政黨為中國共產黨，簡稱共產黨

and they don't hold elections.

也沒有民主投票

Three assumptions are made

現代主要的政治理論

by the dominant political theories of our time.

有三個假設

Such a system is operationally rigid,

舉例來說，這種系統執行上較為僵化

politically closed, and morally illegitimate.

政治封閉且不合乎道德原則

Well, the assumptions are wrong.

但假設都是錯的

The opposites are true.

實際情形恰恰相反

Adaptability, meritocracy, and legitimacy

適應性強，唯才是用，合乎正當性

are the three defining characteristics

才是中國一黨治國

of China's one-party system.

的主要特色

Now, most political scientists will tell us

多數的政治學家認為

that a one-party system is inherently incapable

一黨的統治方式

of self-correction.

無法自我修正

It won't last long because it cannot adapt.

故因無法適應而不能長存

Now here are the facts.

事實上

In 64 years of running the largest country in the world,

過去世界最大國的 64 年統治時期

the range of the Party's policies has been wider

共產黨的政策涵蓋範圍

than any other country in recent memory,

較近期以來任何國家為廣

from radical land collectivization to the Great Leap Forward,

先是激進式的土地共有制 大躍進

then privatization of farmland,

接著是農地私有化

then the Cultural Revolution,

再來是文化大革命

then Deng Xiaoping's market reform,

鄧小平的市場改革

then successor Jiang Zemin took the giant political step

接續了江澤民激烈的、大幅的政治舉措

of opening up Party membership to private businesspeople,

從私有企業中招募黨員

something unimaginable during Mao's rule.

這與毛澤東時期截然不同

So the Party self-corrects in rather dramatic fashions.

一黨制度仍經歷莫大的自我修正

Institutionally, new rules get enacted

以制度而言，採取新的政策

to correct previous dysfunctions.

以修正過去不佳的功能

For example, term limits.

譬如任期制度

Political leaders used to retain their positions for life,

原本統治者能終生適任

and they used that to accumulate power

因此能累積政治實力

and perpetuate their rules.

以無限統治

Mao was the father of modern China,

毛澤東為中國現代之父

yet his prolonged rule led to disastrous mistakes.

但他的常任導致嚴重後果

So the Party instituted term limits

因此共產黨規定任期

with mandatory retirement age of 68 to 70.

必須在 68 至 70 歲間退任

One thing we often hear is,

我們常聽人說：

"Political reforms have lagged far behind economic reforms,"

「政治改革遠較經濟改革慢」

and "China is in dire need of political reform."

以及「中國亟需政治改革」

But this claim is a rhetorical trap

但這只是個文字遊戲

hidden behind a political bias.

隱含著政治偏見

See, some have decided a priori

有些人決定了他們所樂見的

what kinds of changes they want to see,

改變的先後順序

and only such changes can be called political reform.

認為只有這些改變才可稱為政治改革

The truth is, political reforms have never stopped.

其實，政治改革從未停息

Compared with 30 years ago, 20 years, even 10 years ago,

相較於 30 年前、20 年前，甚至 10 年前

every aspect of Chinese society,

中國社會的各種面向

how the country is governed,

國家的治理方式

from the most local level to the highest center,

從最底層的地方機關 到最高級的中央機構

are unrecognizable today.

早已不復以往

Now such changes are simply not possible

如果沒有最根本的政治改革

without political reforms of the most fundamental kind.

上述這些改變是不可能發生的

Now I would venture to suggest the Party

我想大膽地說，中國共產黨

is the world's leading expert in political reform.

是世上政治改革的龍頭

The second assumption is that in a one-party state,

第二個假設為，一黨專制國家

power gets concentrated in the hands of the few,

權力集中於少數人身上

and bad governance and corruption follow.

於是便有了差勁的統治及腐敗的問題

Indeed, corruption is a big problem,

的確，腐敗為一大問題

but let's first look at the larger context.

但我們先從更巨觀的角度來討論

Now, this may be counterintuitive to you.

這可能不同於多數人的想像

The Party happens to be one of the most meritocratic

中國共產黨卻是世界上

political institutions in the world today.

最能唯才是用的政治團體之一

China's highest ruling body, the Politburo, has 25 members.

中國最高統治機關「政治局」有 25 位成員

In the most recent one, only five of them

近一任中，僅有 5 位

came from a background of privilege, so-called princelings.

來自於特權階級，也就是所謂的太子黨

The other 20, including the president and the premier,

其它包含國家主席及總理的 20 位

came from entirely ordinary backgrounds.

皆來自於普通階級

In the larger central committee of 300 or more,

中央委員會有 300 位以上的成員

the percentage of those who were born

出身於上層階級者的

into power and wealth was even smaller.

比例甚至更低

The vast majority of senior Chinese leaders

中國多數的高級政府官員

worked and competed their way to the top.

努力爭取頂尖的位置

Compare that with the ruling elites

與其他已開發及開發中國家菁英相較

in both developed and developing countries,

與其他已開發及開發中國家菁英相較

I think you'll find the Party being near the top

共產黨的社會流動性名列前茅

in upward mobility.

共產黨的社會流動性名列前茅

The question then is, how could that be possible

問題是一黨專政的政治系統是如何做到的?

in a system run by one party?

問題是一黨專政的政治系統是如何做到的?

Now we come to a powerful political institution,

我們現在有一強而有力的政治制度

little-known to Westerners:

在西方鮮為人知

the Party's Organization Department.

為中國共產黨中央組織部

The department functions like a giant

功能就像是大型的人力資源引擎

human resource engine that would be the envy

功能就像是大型的人力資源引擎

of even some of the most successful corporations.

羨煞各大成功的企業

It operates a rotating pyramid

運作方式有如一旋轉的金字塔

made up of three components:

由三部分組成：

civil service, state-owned enterprises,

公務員、國有企業

and social organizations like a university

以及社會組織，如大學

or a community program.

或社區計畫

They form separate yet integrated career paths

三種型態皆是成為官員的途徑

for Chinese officials.

三種型態皆是成為官員的途徑

They recruit college grads into entry-level positions

招集大學畢業生為初級人員

in all three tracks, and they start from the bottom,

三種途徑皆從基層開始

called "keyuan" [clerk].

稱為「科員」

Then they could get promoted

可以依序升等至

through four increasingly elite ranks:

以下四種官位

fuke [deputy section manager], ke [section manager], fuchu [deputy division manager], and chu [division manger].

副科長、科長、副處長以及處長

Now these are not moves from "Karate Kid," okay?

這可不是辦家家酒的遊戲

It's serious business.

而是正經之事

The range of positions is wide,

每個職位主掌之事很廣

from running health care in a village

舉凡村內健康照護

to foreign investment in a city district

城市的外國投資

to manager in a company.

以及公司經理

Once a year, the department reviews their performance.

組織部每年會記錄他們的表現

They interview their superiors, their peers,

與主管、同僚及下屬會談，以評估個人表現

their subordinates. They vet their personal conduct.

與主管、同僚及下屬會談，以評估個人表現

They conduct public opinion surveys.

並且舉辦大眾意見調查

Then they promote the winners.

將勝選者升等

Throughout their careers, these cadres

這些幹部的職位

can move through and out of all three tracks.

可以於這三種官途內向上攀升

Over time, the good ones move beyond the four base levels

一段時間後，表現佳者可從四個基層

to the fuju [deputy bureau chief] and ju [bureau chief] levels.

升至正副局長的階層

There, they enter high officialdom.

晉升高級官員之列

By that point, a typical assignment will be

一般任務則會成為

to manage a district with a population in the millions

管理數百萬人的城市

or a company with hundreds of millions of dollars in revenue.

或是收益上億的公司

Just to show you how competitive the system is,

接著我想讓各位知道競爭多激烈

in 2012, there were 900,000 fuke and ke levels,

2012 年時共有 90 萬名正副科長

600,000 fuchu and chu levels,

60 萬名正副處長

and only 40,000 fuju and ju levels.

卻只有 4 萬名正副局長

After the ju levels,

繼局長階層後

the best few move further up several more ranks,

表現最佳者可再晉升數層

and eventually make it to the Central Committee.

最終進到中央委員會

The process takes two to three decades.

過程需要 20 到 30 年

Does patronage play a role? Yes, of course.

捐贈對官途有用嗎? 當然

But merit remains the fundamental driver.

但最根本的還是績效

In essence, the Organization Department runs

就本質而言，組織部的運作

a modernized version of China's centuries-old

好比現代版的中國師徒制度

mentoring system.

好比現代版的中國師徒制度

China's new president, Xi Jinping,

中國新任主席習近平

is the son of a former leader, which is very unusual,

非常特別，是前任領導的兒子

first of his kind to make the top job.

也是領導人之子成為元首的首例

Even for him, the career took 30 years.

即使身分特殊，他也花費了 30 年

He started as a village manager,

首先是村長

and by the time he entered the Politburo,

當他進入政治局時

he had managed areas with a total population

所管轄區的人口達 1.5億 之多

of 150 million people