Several years into what has been a pretty good bull market depending on where you look, things are starting to look a little bit more difficult.

這幾年某些牛市情況較好，但是目前情況看起來趨於不利。

Markets are up, but only a little.

市場經濟正在復甦，但幅度不大。

To help us think about what happens next, and where perhaps value might lie,

為了幫助我們思考未來走勢以及價值所在，

we're joined by Luca Paolini, chief strategist for Pictet Asset Management.

我們邀請到了Pictet資產管理的首席策略顧問Luca Paolini。

Hello again. So as you can see, the central bankers are with us and perhaps key to what happens, and I think we'll come to that,

嗨。如你所見，中央銀行站在我們這邊也或許是這些事件的關鍵，我們等等會討論到。

but first perhaps you could set the scene for us, where are we in terms of this big bull market for stocks?

但是或許你可以先為我們描述背景，在股票的牛市當中，我們身處何處？

And I think you've got a chart to help do that here.

你有準備一張圖表幫我們了解情況

Yeah, we still believe that global markets are in an uptrend and the main reason is that the US labor market is still pretty much solid,

是的，我們依然相信全球市場經濟持續上升，主要原因是穩定的美國的勞動市場。

but its weakness obviously is in China but the US labor markets in the past,

但它的缺點很明顯的是在中國市場，不是過去的美國勞動市場。

in the past actually twenty years always keeping the trend and the trend is still up for equity markets.

在過去二十年，市場持續地照著趨勢走，這股趨勢也帶領證券市場往上走。

But it will be, will be still very very volatile

但是這會非常、非常的不穩定。

And I think we can see that from this chart here in terms of the labor market, this is the scales inverted here on the left,

我們可以從圖表看出，勞動市場的單位在左邊，

so the line moving up means more people have jobs.

當線往上走表示更多人有工作。

Yes and as you can see for example, in 2011 when the stock market was kind of fluctuating

是的，舉例來說，在2011年當股票市場波動時，

well, the trend was still up for the labor market and basically what happened after that in the equity markets continue to rally

勞動市場的趨勢還是往上升，在此之後的債券市場持續重整，

and we expect the same trend in the next 12 months.

我們也預期在接下來的12個月會有相同的趨勢。

And this is the down trend for global equities not just the US.

這對不只美國還有全球債券市場都是下降的趨勢。

Well we expect actually US to underperform but we think that global equities will move higher

我們預期美國市場表現不佳，但是我們又覺得全球債券或走高，

there is no much upside, but the trend is still pretty much in place.

其實這沒有什麼好處，全球趨勢沒什麼改變。

And in terms of global equities, I think we've got another chart here which sort of gets into some of the outlook there in terms of the earnings.

講到全球債券市場，我們有另外一張圖讓我們了解收益的前景。

While we are now in the earnings season in the US and what we know is that there is no profit growth, really it's flat or slightly down

現在是美國的財報季，我們從中得到的資料是收益沒有什麼成長，只有持平或是微微下降，

and the main reason is obviously energy and something which we have to be a little bit concerned about is that in the past,

主要的原因很明顯是能源跟我們之前就一直很擔心的事物，

whenever we had this kind of flat earnings, well, we had a recession in the following years.

每當這種平緩收益發生時，我們接下幾年就會面臨經濟衰退。

I think this is something we have to monitor, but again most of these declines come from the energy sector.

我想這是我們應該要去監控觀察的東西，但是大部分的經濟衰退元的原因出自於能源問題。

So does that mean things are OK as long as we ignore energy?

所以這代表如果我們撇除能源問題，其他就會變好嗎？

Dan: Or energy is too big to ignore? Luca: Yeah, that means actually so big to ignore,

Dan：或是能源問題大到無法忽視？Luca：是的，無法忽視，

but in a way, the negative now or the very, the flat numbers we see in earnings may be exaggerate,

但我們現在看到的收益，不管是負向或是持平的數字，都有點過於誇大，

the kind of the earnings that we have in the US but also globally.

不管是美國的收益或是全球收益都是。

Ok, so in terms of what you like then I mean if the US isn't looking so great, what should we be thinking about in terms of stocks?

好的，所以如果美國市場情況看起來沒那麼好，那我們應該要往哪個股票市場投資？

Definitely European equities and also Japanese equities. In a way Europe has a little bit of everything,

絕對是歐洲債券還有日本債券市場。因為歐洲擁有各種好的條件。

Luca: you have good evaluation, you have now an improvement in growth Dan: and I think we've got you can show us that evaluation

Luca：歐洲市場有好的評估、有好的成長。Dan：我想你可以給我們看評估資料。

we have obviously bank liquidity improving, actually lending growth is turning positive

歐洲市場銀行流動比率增加，還有借款成長率也上升，

and I think what is interesting when you look back in the last 40 years,

我覺得有趣的地方是，當你看到過去四十年以來，

Europe is trending a pretty much an all-time low related to the US.

歐洲市場的表現幾乎比美國還要糟。

We see here that we are pretty much back to 73 really.

我們可以看到我們已經回到 73。

So I think, obviously part of this is because the Euros being weaker,

當然有部分的原因是歐元走貶，

but clearly the underperformance of Europe makes sense a few years ago.

但前幾年歐洲市場不佳的表現是有跡可循的。

Now with the ECB with obviously the improvement in earnings, in bank lending improving is probably going to turn

現在歐洲中央銀行的收益、借款率上升，這個趨勢可能即將扭轉，

and we expect European equities to do very well in relative terms over the next 6 to 12 months.

我們預期歐洲市場債券在接下來的六到十二個月要表現相對良好。

What about the earnings question in Europe though, because we've had I think it's 4 or 5 years now

那在歐洲收益的問題你有什麼看法？因為最近這四到五年的

of earnings which have always looked like they were going to grow in Europe but every year they've disappointed.

收益每次看似都會成長，但是每年都沒有達成。

And so are we actually going to get growth in Europe next year?

所以歐洲市場明年真的會成長嗎？

Actually when we look at earnings growth in Europe this year will be around 10 to 5%,

事實上，我們看到歐洲今年的收益成長率大概會在5~10%，

if we remove the UK, which is obviously negatively impacted by the energy prices,

如果我們撇除英國不看，因為英國能源價格對於歐洲市場目前是負向影響，

but I think the risk growth in Europe, when you look at GDP we're talking about 1.52%,

但關於歐洲風險成長，當你看到 GDP 1.52%時，

but what is really critical is that for the first time now in a few years

真正關鍵的地方在於，這是這些年來第一次

we see an improvement in bank lending, which was not the case before

看到銀行借款增加，這是之前所沒有的情形，

and this is really key for bank profits and for earnings from middle Europe.

這對於銀行的利潤以及中歐的收益是很大的關鍵。

And is that a sort of a fundamental core, or is that more of a tactical position kind of core?

這是一種基本核心，還是一個更戰術上的核心？

Well, it's definitely a core for the next 6 to 12 months.

這絕對是接下來六到十二個月的核心。

Over the long term we see risks, political risk especially Europe, but definitely what we see is a turn

在長時間以來我們看到危機，特別是歐洲的政治危機，但是我們所看到的是

in the earnings cycle, in the bank lending cycle, evaluation and a weak euro.

盈利週期、銀行借款週期、評估和弱歐元的轉折。

Everything seemed to support Europe at least over the next 12 months.

至少在接下來的十二個月，所有條件都支持歐洲市場。

And back to the beginning, so Europe is supported by quantitative easing here from Mr. Draghi,

回到最開始的主題，歐洲目前實施由Draghi主導的量化寬鬆政策，

but what about Mr. Abe in Japan, we haven't talked about the Japanese market,

那日本的首相安倍呢？我們還沒談到日本市場，

how're you feeling about that?

你的看法如何？

Well, Japan in a way looks very similar to Europe, they have good evaluation,

日本看似跟歐洲市場很相似，他們有良好的評估、

a very expansionary monetary policy we see actually some kind of consideration in growth and bank lending.

擴張性的貨幣政策，我們實際上也看到一些成長和銀行借款上升。

What is different in Japan is that we see some real structural reform,

但日本跟歐洲不同的是，他們有真正的結構改革，

but we don't really see Europe and we also see especially in Japan,

這沒有在歐洲看到，只有特別在日本觀察到的現象，

big inflows into the equity markets from the retail investors, which will support the market very strongly.

大筆現金從散戶投資客手中流入債券市場，這帶給市場非常大的支持。

So it's a very similar story, but it's probably more longer term than shorter term, in the short term but in Europe,

所以這是很相似的情況，但這比較多關於長期計畫，歐洲比較屬於短期計畫，

in the longer term is better in Japanese equities.

長期計畫對日本的債券市場較好。

Alright, well, thank you for joining us Luca.

好的，謝謝Luca

And so it sounds like there are reasons to be optimistic about stocks even if it doesn't necessarily involve the US.

所以聽起來對於股票市場，即使不把美國算進去，我們還是有理由保持樂觀。