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  • Translator: Joseph Geni Reviewer: Morton Bast

    一場最大規模

  • The most massive

    厲害的海嘯風暴

  • tsunami perfect storm

    正臨頭痛擊我們

  • is bearing down upon us.

    這場厲害的風暴

  • This perfect storm

    正造成嚴峻的事實 日益嚴峻的事實

  • is mounting a grim reality, increasingly grim reality,

    而我們面對這事實的態度

  • and we are facing that reality

    是全然地相信

  • with the full belief

    我們可以用科技解決這個問題

  • that we can solve our problems with technology,

    而這是非常可以理解的

  • and that's very understandable.

    那麼,我們面對的這場厲害風暴

  • Now, this perfect storm that we are facing

    是我們人口增加的結果

  • is the result of our rising population,

    攀升至近百億的人口

  • rising towards 10 billion people,

    土地變成沙漠

  • land that is turning to desert,

    當然,還有氣候變遷

  • and, of course, climate change.

    那麼,無庸置疑的

  • Now there's no question about it at all:

    我們只能以科技

  • we will only solve the problem

    代替石化燃料以解決這個問題

  • of replacing fossil fuels with technology.

    但石化燃料、碳——煤及石油——

  • But fossil fuels, carbon -- coal and gas --

    絕不是導致氣候變遷的

  • are by no means the only thing

    唯一理由

  • that is causing climate change.

    沙漠化

  • Desertification

    是形容土地變成沙漠的華麗名詞

  • is a fancy word for land that is turning to desert,

    而這種情況是因為

  • and this happens only when

    我們造出太多裸露的土地

  • we create too much bare ground.

    沒有其他的原因了

  • There's no other cause.

    而我刻意要把重點放在

  • And I intend to focus

    全球那些變成沙漠的土地

  • on most of the world's land that is turning to desert.

    但我要提出一個非常簡單的方法

  • But I have for you a very simple message

    能提供更多超乎想像的希望

  • that offers more hope than you can imagine.

    我們有

  • We have environments

    終年溼氣不斷的環境

  • where humidity is guaranteed throughout the year.

    在這些地方,幾乎不可能

  • On those, it is almost impossible

    產生大面積裸露土壤

  • to create vast areas of bare ground.

    無論你怎麼做 大自然都能快速覆蓋它

  • No matter what you do, nature covers it up so quickly.

    而我們也有這樣的環境

  • And we have environments

    是我們有幾個月的濕氣

  • where we have months of humidity

    然後接著是好幾個月的乾旱

  • followed by months of dryness,

    而這就是沙漠化發生之處

  • and that is where desertification is occurring.

    幸運的是,現在因著太空科技

  • Fortunately, with space technology now,

    我們可以從太空觀察它

  • we can look at it from space,

    如此做,我們相當能清楚地看見比例

  • and when we do, you can see the proportions fairly well.

    一般來說,你所見綠色之處

  • Generally, what you see in green

    就是沒有沙漠化的地方

  • is not desertifying,

    棕色處則是發生沙漠化的地方

  • and what you see in brown is,

    這些是迄今世上最大的幾處

  • and these are by far the greatest areas of the Earth.

    我猜,大約三分之二的 全球土地正經歷沙漠化

  • About two thirds, I would guess, of the world is desertifying.

    我在提哈馬沙漠拍了這張照片

  • I took this picture in the Tihamah Desert

    當時降雨量為25公釐 大約是一英寸的雨量

  • while 25 millimeters -- that's an inch of rain -- was falling.

    以汽油桶裝水來想像一下

  • Think of it in terms of drums of water,

    每桶可裝二百公升的水

  • each containing 200 liters.

    那天,那塊地每公頃上

  • Over 1,000 drums of water fell on every hectare

    降下了超過一千桶的水

  • of that land that day.

    但隔天,那塊地看起來變成這樣

  • The next day, the land looked like this.

    那些水都去了哪裡?

  • Where had that water gone?

    有些變成了溢流跑掉了

  • Some of it ran off as flooding,

    但大部分浸入土裡的水

  • but most of the water that soaked into the soil

    就只是再蒸發掉了

  • simply evaporated out again,

    完全就像你家花園的情況一樣

  • exactly as it does in your garden

    如果你讓花園土壤裸露

  • if you leave the soil uncovered.

    那麼,因為水及碳的循環

  • Now, because the fate of water and carbon

    與土壤有機質息息相關

  • are tied to soil organic matter,

    當我們破壞了土壤,你就釋放了碳

  • when we damage soils, you give off carbon.

    碳會回到大氣層

  • Carbon goes back to the atmosphere.

    你一遍又一遍地聽到人再三地說

  • Now you're told over and over, repeatedly,

    沙漠化只能發生在

  • that desertification is only occurring

    地球的乾旱及半乾旱氣候區

  • in arid and semi-arid areas of the world,

    而像這樣的高草地

  • and that tall grasslands like this one

    因降雨量高,不會發生這現象

  • in high rainfall are of no consequence.

    但是如果你不看其上之草 只看其下的土壤

  • But if you do not look at grasslands but look down into them,

    你會發現你剛剛所見的草原

  • you find that most of the soil in that grassland

    其土壤都裸露並被苔原覆蓋

  • that you've just seen is bare and covered with a crust of algae,

    造成逕流增加及水分蒸發

  • leading to increased runoff and evaporation.

    那就是我們未能早期發現的

  • That is the cancer of desertification

    沙漠化惡瘤,直到它已惡化到末期

  • that we do not recognize till its terminal form.

    現在我們知道沙漠化是因家畜造成

  • Now we know that desertification is caused by livestock,

    大部分是養牛、綿羊及山羊

  • mostly cattle, sheep and goats,

    過度放牧造成植被無法復原

  • overgrazing the plants,

    使得土壤裸露並釋放甲烷

  • leaving the soil bare and giving off methane.

    幾乎大家都知道這個現象

  • Almost everybody knows this,

    從諾貝爾獎得主到高爾夫球桿弟

  • from nobel laureates to golf caddies,

    或者至少你被教導過,像我一樣

  • or was taught it, as I was.

    你在這張圖看到的

  • Now, the environments like you see here,

    塵土飛揚的環境,那是我的家鄉非洲

  • dusty environments in Africa where I grew up,

    我很愛野生動物

  • and I loved wildlife,

    所以我長大後非常恨惡家畜

  • and so I grew up hating livestock

    因為牠們造成許多破壞

  • because of the damage they were doing.

    我的大學教育讓我成為生物學者

  • And then my university education as an ecologist

    更加堅固了我的信仰

  • reinforced my beliefs.

    但是,我要告訴你

  • Well, I have news for you.

    我們曾經如此堅信

  • We were once just as certain

    世界是平的

  • that the world was flat.

    然後發現我們錯了 現在我們發現我們又錯了

  • We were wrong then, and we are wrong again.

    我要邀請你

  • And I want to invite you now

    與我一同走過我被 再教育及重新發現的旅程

  • to come along on my journey of reeducation and discovery.

    當我還很年輕,在非洲

  • When I was a young man,

    還是一個沒經驗的生物學家時

  • a young biologist in Africa,

    我參與一項計畫,要把幾片壯麗的土地

  • I was involved in setting aside marvelous areas

    預留成未來的國家公園

  • as future national parks.

    沒多久──這是1950年代

  • Now no soonerthis was in the 1950s —

    沒多久,我們就把一群以狩獵

  • and no sooner did we remove the hunting,

    敲鼓為生的人移居以保護動物

  • drum-beating people to protect the animals,

    然後這塊地的情況就開始惡化

  • than the land began to deteriorate,

    就像你看到的這個 我們弄出來的公園一樣

  • as you see in this park that we formed.

    那麼,雖然沒有家畜了

  • Now, no livestock were involved,

    但我們懷疑有太多大象

  • but suspecting that we had too many elephants now,

    我做了個研究證明的確如此

  • I did the research and I proved we had too many,

    所以我建議我們要降低其數目

  • and I recommended that we would have to reduce their numbers

    且要降到這片土地 可以自給自足的水平

  • and bring them down to a level that the land could sustain.

    對我而言 那是個不得不的可怕決定

  • Now, that was a terrible decision for me to have to make,

    而老實說也是政治炸彈

  • and it was political dynamite, frankly.

    所以我們的政府組了一個專家團隊

  • So our government formed a team of experts

    來評估我的研究

  • to evaluate my research.

    他們的確做了,也與我持相同意見

  • They did. They agreed with me,

    所以接下來幾年

  • and over the following years,

    我們射殺了四萬頭大象 試圖停止土地破壞

  • we shot 40,000 elephants to try to stop the damage.

    然而事情變得更糟,沒有更好

  • And it got worse, not better.

    我是如此愛著大象

  • Loving elephants as I do,

    那真是我一生中最難過 也是最大的失誤

  • that was the saddest and greatest blunder of my life,

    終其一生我都將懷著悔恨

  • and I will carry that to my grave.

    但痛定思痛,還是有件好事

  • One good thing did come out of it.

    它讓我矢志不移

  • It made me absolutely determined

    要畢生投入以找出解決方案

  • to devote my life to finding solutions.

    當我到美國時我很震驚

  • When I came to the United States, I got a shock,

    發現像這樣的國家公園

  • to find national parks like this one

    其沙漠化的程度就跟非洲的一樣糟

  • desertifying as badly as anything in Africa.

    而且這片土地已超過

  • And there'd been no livestock on this land

    70年的時間沒有家畜

  • for over 70 years.

    而且我發現美國科學家

  • And I found that American scientists

    除了說它是乾旱及自然現象外

  • had no explanation for this

    對此沒有任何解釋

  • except that it is arid and natural.

    所以我開始在

  • So I then began looking

    我能找到的

  • at all the research plots I could

    針對美西的研究報告中尋找

  • over the whole of the Western United States

    牛隻遷移

  • where cattle had been removed

    真的可以停止沙漠化的證明

  • to prove that it would stop desertification,

    但我發現的是完全相反的證明

  • but I found the opposite,

    如同我們在這個研究站看到的

  • as we see on this research station,

    1961年這片草地還是綠油油一片

  • where this grassland that was green in 1961,

    但到了2002年已經變成這樣

  • by 2002 had changed to that situation.

    而寫這篇氣候變遷意見書的作者

  • And the authors of the position paper on climate change

    我就是從那裏拿到這些照片

  • from which I obtained these pictures

    把此改變歸因於未知現象

  • attribute this change to "unknown processes."

    很明顯我們並不了解

  • Clearly, we have never understood

    沙漠化的原因

  • what is causing desertification,

    而此現象已經毀滅了許多文明

  • which has destroyed many civilizations

    而現在正對我們產生全球性威脅

  • and now threatens us globally.

    我們從來沒有了解過這件事

  • We have never understood it.

    把一平方公尺的土壤

  • Take one square meter of soil

    像這樣光禿禿攤平在這裡

  • and make it bare like this is down here,

    我保證你會發現,這片土與僅由

  • and I promise you, you will find it much colder at dawn

    枯枝落葉覆蓋住的同樣土壤

  • and much hotter at midday

    在破曉時冷得多,在日正當中時熱得多

  • than that same piece of ground if it's just covered with litter,

    只要枯枝落葉就好

  • plant litter.

    你就改變了微氣候

  • You have changed the microclimate.

    所以,當你這麼做

  • Now, by the time you are doing that

    並在超過全球一半的土地

  • and increasing greatly the percentage of bare ground

    大幅增加裸露地面的百分比時

  • on more than half the world's land,

    你就在改變總體氣候

  • you are changing macroclimate.

    但我們就是不了解

  • But we have just simply not understood

    為什麼這現象於一萬年前開始發生?

  • why was it beginning to happen 10,000 years ago?

    為什麼最近大幅加快?

  • Why has it accelerated lately?

    我們對其一無所知

  • We had no understanding of that.

    我們並沒有了解到

  • What we had failed to understand

    這些隨季節改變濕度的環境

  • was that these seasonal humidity environments of the world,

    其土壤及植被的發展

  • the soil and the vegetation

    與非常大數目的放牧有關

  • developed with very large numbers of grazing animals,

    也沒有了解到這些放牧動物

  • and that these grazing animals

    與兇猛的群體狩獵掠食動物息息相關

  • developed with ferocious pack-hunting predators.

    那麼,要對抗群體狩獵掠食 動物的主要方法