Yeah, it's actually two data points they're both the prices and the unemployment numbers. Yeah, they're encouraging a sense of positive economic growth.

是啊，其實是綜合股價和失業率兩項數據。沒錯，顯示經濟正朝向好的方向發展

They obviously put lean the other way with respect to the FED.

很明顯是因聯準會而有所變化

And so this is the conundrum and attention that's going on right now.

這正是目前的難題，也是大眾注意力聚焦的地方

What's your take? I mean at this point when you see these numbers how closely do you follow them?

那你如何應對？這些數據會有什麼影響？

And for you and the way you invest, does it matter when we're gonna get a hike?

而你的投資方法會是如何呢？和之後即將升息有什麼關聯嗎？

I follow them quite closely because they do inform us as to lots of other things.

會有相當大的影響，因為這些數據顯示出很多資訊

Personally, I don't think the FED should be raising rates any time in the foreseeable future.

就個人而言，我不認為在未來可見的這幾年內聯準會應該升息

I don't see the case for it particularly, but in terms of, kind of firm equity investing, the kind of long term investing we do,

這不應該特別對待，但就公司股份、長期投資組合這些

No. Whether the FED raises in October, December, or January isn't gonna change our lives.

也是一樣，不論聯準會在十月、十二月或一月升息，都不會造成影響

Alright, I wanna turn to D.C. where our colleague Jeanna Smialek from Bloomberg Economics and a Federal Reserve reporter is joining us.

好，接著來聽聽我們來自彭博經濟，兼聯準會記者的同事潔娜‧史麥雷克

What do you make here?

你有什麼看法嗎？

You know, I think that the really important number out this morning is that inflation point.

今天早上真正重要的數據是通膨點

It's the last inflation, major input inflation point that were going to get before the FED meets in October.

這是在十月聯準會會議前的最後一次通貨膨脹，

And at this point in time, as the FED looks to see if its still mandated and satisfied, they're feeling pretty good about the employment side,

在這時間點，因聯準會也在觀望權勢大小，對勞動就業市場持樂觀態度

so I think it's those price pressures that they're really still waiting to see pick up toward their 2 percent goal.

我覺得是物價壓力所以他們仍在等待到達她們百分之二目標的時間點

And wage growth of course, right? We keep looking for wage growth, which we haven't been able to see

還有薪資成長是吧？我們一直在期待薪資成長，卻毫無改變

despite the fact that we were saying we're close to full employment.

即便勞動市場幾乎呈現充分就業

Yeah, yeah, absolutely. And I think the wage growth and the inflation numbers are to some degree related.

對，對，沒錯。薪資成長和通膨率在某種程度上是相關聯的

You know, it's really debated how much wage growth leads inflation and vice versa?

薪資成長會影響通膨多少，而反面來說又會如何？這都相當令人爭議

But I think that if they saw either wage pressures or a little bit of inflation, it'd make them feel a lot better that their goals can be satisfied.

但是，如果聯準會看到不論是薪資調脹壓力或是輕微的通貨膨脹，都可能滿足他們的期望。

Thank you very much, Jeanna. So go ahead.

非常謝謝你，潔娜。我們繼續

Steve, do you wanna weigh in?

史蒂夫，有什麼想補充嗎？

Well I agree with that. I think wage pressure is probably the key indicator. We need some increased wages,

這個嘛我同意她說的。薪資壓力可能是個重要的指標。我們需要調高些薪水

wages haven't risen after you adjust for inflation in quite a long time.

但因應通膨調整後，會有好一段時間薪資不會上升

So those who think wage pressure would actually be a good thing, but that will be the thing that probably gets the FED to move.

所以那些視薪資壓力為好方法的人，實際上可能導致聯準會有所行動

One that occurs.

是個實際可能會發生的狀況

But if you look at the futures, I looked at them this morning, I think actually, you have get it down till April before you get about 50 percent likelihood of a raise.

但看看期貨，今天早上，我想了一下，即便在四月前達成這樣的目標，仍會有一半的機率會升息

And that's a very recent development, as you know,

而且事情很有可能這樣發展

(Yes, exactly. It's moving.)

是的，正是如此。事情正朝向這個方向發展

to go back a week or two. I think people were taking Yellen at her word that was gonna happen this year,

在一週兩週前。民眾都相信葉倫所說的會在今年發生

and then you had Lael Brainard and Tarullo coming out on the other side, but you also had on your show

接著又有布蘭納德和塔魯洛的另一套說法，而你又會有自己的一套

people like very Barry Stern, he's very sort of centrist balanced guy saying, "Let's just get it over with, raise rates, and let's just get on with it."

還有像貝瑞‧斯特恩那樣的人，相當中立，說著：「我們趕快辦一辦升息，趕快繼續往前進！」

So it's gonna be a really interesting discussion, it'll be fun to be a fly on the wall.

將會變成非常有趣的討論，當個旁觀的第三者會有不少樂趣吧

What does it mean to Janet Yellen and her position? There are so many other FED governors out there so publicly on the other side?

這對葉倫和她的職位代表了什麼呢？有很多聯準會高層紛紛公開表示不同立場

Well, there are two so far, right? And if you go back to the last meeting, when all the governors put their little dots on the chart,

目前為止有兩位沒錯吧？如果回朔至上次會議，所有高層都各自提出一點想法

in terms of the way they thought things were going, I think it was 13 out of 17 thought (that) it would raise by the end of the year,

針對升息一事討論，與會的17位成員中有13位認為今年會升息

so 4 that didn't. Maybe that number is bigger now. You know, Janet Yellen is a consensus person.

而有4位不這麼認為。現在這個比例可能更多了一點。你也知道葉倫是個會採取多數意見的人

I think she is going to listen to her fellow FOMC members. And try to build a consensus.

她會聽從聯邦公開市場委員會的意見，試著達到共識

And there may be some dissenters one way or another, but I don't think she will be one of them.

可能會有一些反對者，但葉倫不會是其中之一

I think she will part of a majority, and probably substantial majority. But you know, everybody assumes that

她會是多數的一方，也可能是絕大多數。但你也知道，大家都認為

Janet Yellen knows right now what she's gonna do in December. December is a long way from now. We're gonna get a lot more data.

現在葉倫知道要在十二月升息。這還有很長一段時間。未來我們也會有更多的資訊

We're gonna know a fair amount more, and then you deal with the facts that are in front of you, and then you make a decision.

有著更多的資訊來應對實際情況，而後做決定

Yeah, and in fairness actually, if you look at what Tarullo actually said, he was very careful, and saying based on the data as it right now,

是啊，確實比較公平，如果來看看塔魯洛說的，他很謹慎，依現有資訊多少來發言

(Right, exactly.)

（沒錯，就是這樣）

but we've got a long way, just as you just said, long way between here and December, and things could develop.

還有很長一段時間，就像你說的，一直到十二月，事情還有發展空間

So he did not say no rate hike.

所以他也沒說不會有升息這樣的事

Exactly.

你說的對