which is called "Blink,"

書名叫《決斷2秒間》，探討的是瞬間判斷和第一印象。

and it's about snap judgments and first impressions.

它會明年一月上市，希望大家都各買三本。

And it comes out in January, and I hope you all buy it in triplicate.

但是當我在想這件事情的時候，

(Laughter)

我發現雖然我的新書讓我開心、

But I was thinking about this,

也會讓我媽開心，

and I realized that although my new book makes me happy,

這些卻跟快樂無關。

and I think would make my mother happy,

所以，我決定不要談新書，而是跟大家介紹一位

it's not really about happiness.

我覺得在這過去二十年來，

So I decided instead, I would talk about someone

比誰都讓美國人快樂的人。

who I think has done as much to make Americans happy

這個人是我心目中的英雄。

as perhaps anyone over the last 20 years,

他的名字是默斯克韋茲。

a man who is a great personal hero of mine:

他以重新發明義大利麵醬而聞名。

someone by the name of Howard Moskowitz,

默斯克韋茲大概這麼高、身材圓滾滾、

who is most famous for reinventing spaghetti sauce.

六十來歲、戴著巨大的眼鏡、

Howard's about this high, and he's round,

和稀疏的白髮、流露出一種奇妙的活力和朝氣，

and he's in his 60s, and he has big huge glasses

他養了一隻鸚鵡、熱愛歌劇、

and thinning gray hair,

也是中世紀歷史的愛好者。

and he has a kind of wonderful exuberance and vitality,

他的職業是心理物理學家。

and he has a parrot, and he loves the opera,

我應該告訴你們，我完全不知道心理物理學是什麼東西，

and he's a great aficionado of medieval history.

雖然我曾經跟一個攻讀

And by profession, he's a psychophysicist.

心理物理學博士的女生約會。

Now, I should tell you that I have no idea what psychophysics is,

這大概透露出那段感情的一些訊息。（笑聲）

although at some point in my life,

從我所知道的，心理物理學是要測量東西。

I dated a girl for two years

而默斯克韋茲對測量東西非常有興趣。

who was getting her doctorate in psychophysics.

他得到哈佛博士後，

Which should tell you something about that relationship.

在紐約的White Plains成立了一家小顧問公司。

(Laughter)

他的第一個客戶就是－這是在很多年前，在七零年代初期

As far as I know, psychophysics is about measuring things.

－他的第一個客戶就是百事可樂。

And Howard is very interested in measuring things.

百事可樂找了默斯克韋茲，說：

And he graduated with his doctorate from Harvard,

"你知道嗎，現在有個新東西叫阿斯巴甜，

and he set up a little consulting shop in White Plains, New York.

我們想要用來做健怡百事可樂。

And one of his first clients was Pepsi.

我們希望你可以幫我們研究出，我們應該在每罐健怡百事可樂

This is many years ago, back in the early 70s.

放入多少阿斯巴甜，才會得到最完美的飲料。" 對嗎？

And Pepsi came to Howard and they said,

這聽起來應該是個最可以直接回答的問題，

"You know, there's this new thing called aspartame,

默斯克韋茲也是這麼想。因為百事可樂告訴他，

and we would like to make Diet Pepsi.

"看，我們目前正在考慮界於百分之8和百分之12之間的甜度。

We'd like you to figure out

百分之8以下的甜度不夠甜、

how much aspartame we should put in each can of Diet Pepsi

而百分之12以上的甜度太甜。

in order to have the perfect drink."

我們想知道，界乎百分之8和12之間的理想甜值是多少？"

Now that sounds like an incredibly straightforward question to answer,

假如我現在叫你們解決這個問題，你們一定會說："很簡單啦！"

and that's what Howard thought.

首先，製造一大批的百事可樂做實驗，

Because Pepsi told him,

製造不同的甜度－百分之8、 8.1、8.2、8.3，

"We're working with a band between eight and 12 percent.

一直到百分之12－讓幾千個人試喝，

Anything below eight percent sweetness is not sweet enough;

再把數據畫成曲線圖，

anything above 12 percent sweetness is too sweet.

然後再取最受歡迎的甜度。對吧？很簡單。

We want to know: what's the sweet spot between 8 and 12?"

默斯克韋茲做了實驗，得到數據，再畫成曲線圖，

Now, if I gave you this problem to do, you would all say, it's very simple.

卻突然發現不是一個漂亮的鐘形曲線。

What we do is you make up a big experimental batch of Pepsi,

事實上，從數據上根本看不出個所以然來。

at every degree of sweetness -- eight percent, 8.1, 8.2, 8.3,

它亂無章法，分佈在各處。

all the way up to 12 --

其實，大部分從事那種行業的人、在食品測試之類的世界裡，

and we try this out with thousands of people,

得到這種亂無章法的數據都不會感到驚訝。

and we plot the results on a curve,

他們會想說："嗯，你知道嘍，要搞清楚大家對可樂的喜好並沒有那麼簡單。"

and we take the most popular concentration, right?

"嗯，也許我們在實驗的過程中哪裡出了錯。"

Really simple.

"嗯，那我們來做個學術性的猜測，"

Howard does the experiment, and he gets the data back,

然後他們就指向百分之10，就在正中間。

and he plots it on a curve,

默斯克韋茲可就沒這麼容易說服。

and all of a sudden he realizes it's not a nice bell curve.

默斯克韋茲是個秉持某程度的智慧標準的人。

In fact, the data doesn't make any sense.

這種作法無法滿足他，

It's a mess. It's all over the place.

而這個問題也困惑了他好幾年。

Now, most people in that business, in the world of testing food and such,

他會徹底的去想究竟哪裡出錯。

are not dismayed when the data comes back a mess.

為什麼我們不能令這個健怡百事可樂的實驗有意義?

They think, "Well, you know,

有一天他坐在 White Plains裡用餐，

figuring out what people think about cola's not that easy."

開始嘗試幻想為雀巢咖啡的事情。

"You know, maybe we made an error somewhere along the way."

突然之間，好像靈光一閃，答案閃入他的腦中。

"You know, let's just make an educated guess,"

那就是當他們分析健怡百事可樂的數據時，

and they simply point and they go for 10 percent,

他們問了一個錯誤的問題。

right in the middle.

他們在找一個完美的百事可樂，

Howard is not so easily placated.

而他們應該找多個完美的百事可樂。相信我吧!

Howard is a man of a certain degree of intellectual standards.

這是一個重大的啟發。

And this was not good enough for him,

這是在飲食這門科學中其中一個最聰明的突破。

and this question bedeviled him for years.

而默斯克韋茲立即出發

And he would think it through and say, "What was wrong?

到世界各地的研討會

Why could we not make sense of this experiment with Diet Pepsi?"

去演說。他會說:

And one day, he was sitting in a diner in White Plains,

"你們尋找一個完美的百事可樂是錯的。

about to go trying to dream up some work for Nescafé.

你們應該尋找多種完美的百事可樂。"

And suddenly, like a bolt of lightning, the answer came to him.

而其他人很茫然的望著他，並說，

And that is, that when they analyzed the Diet Pepsi data,

"你在說什麼?你瘋了。"

they were asking the wrong question.

他們會續說，"好，下一位!"

They were looking for the perfect Pepsi,

他嘗試找生意。沒有人聘用他 -- 但他仍然堅持

and they should have been looking for the perfect Pepsis.

他不斷的談及它，再談及它，再談及它。

Trust me.

默斯克韋茲很愛意第緒語的一句表達

This was an enormous revelation.

"對於一個在辣根的蠕蟲來說，世界只有辣根。"

This was one of the most brilliant breakthroughs in all of food science.

這是他的辣根。 (笑聲) 他對此很堅持。

Howard immediately went on the road,

最後他有一個突破，弗拉希奇醬菜找他

and he would go to conferences around the country,

他們說，"默斯克韋茲先生 -- 默斯克韋茲博士 --

and he would stand up and say,

我們想製造完美的醬菜。" 而他回答說，

"You had been looking for the perfect Pepsi.

"世上沒有一個完美的醬菜，只有完美的醬菜們。"

You're wrong.

他回去跟他們說，"你們不只要改善你們的常規，

You should be looking for the perfect Pepsis."

也需要創造驚喜。"

And people would look at him blankly and say,

這就是我們得到美好的醬菜的方法。

"What are you talking about? Craziness."

跟著找他的是康寶濃湯。

And they would say, "Move! Next!"

這個更為重要。事實上

Tried to get business, nobody would hire him --

康寶濃湯是令默斯克韋茲成名的。

he was obsessed, though,

康寶濃湯生產 Prego，而 Prego 在八零年代初在 Ragu 的競爭中掙扎求存。

and he talked about it and talked about it.

Ragu 在七零和八零年代是最主要的義大利麪醬。

Howard loves the Yiddish expression

現在在這個行業裡 -- 我不知道你對此有多少關心，

"To a worm in horseradish, the world is horseradish."

或我應花多少時間說明。

This was his horseradish.

但，以技術上來說，

(Laughter)

Prego 比 Ragu 有更好的蕃茄醬。

He was obsessed with it!

蕃茄膏的品質更好，香料的配搭更出色。

And finally, he had a breakthrough.

它更容易黏附在義大利麪。事實上

Vlasic Pickles came to him,

他們在七零年代用Ragu 和 Prego 做了一個很有名的測試。

and they said, "Doctor Moskowitz, we want to make the perfect pickle."

如果你有一盤義大利麪，你會把醬倒上去，對嗎?

And he said,

而 Ragu 會全沉在底下， 而 Prego 則會凝在表層。

"There is no perfect pickle; there are only perfect pickles."

這就是"黏附性"。

And he came back to them and he said,

無論如何，儘管事實證明它們的黏附性較優，

"You don't just need to improve your regular;

蕃茄醬的品質較好，Prego 還是掙扎著。

you need to create zesty."

所以他們去與默斯克韋茲見面並說，幫我們調整吧。

And that's where we got zesty pickles.

默斯克韋茲看了他們的生產線後說，

Then the next person came to him: Campbell's Soup.

"你們所擁有的是一個已死的蕃茄社會。

And this was even more important.

這是我將會做的。

In fact, Campbell's Soup is where Howard made his reputation.

他在康寶濃湯的廚房裡

Campbell's made Prego,

製造45種不同的義大利麪醬，把它們

and Prego, in the early 80s, was struggling next to Ragù,

根據各種可能分辨蕃茄醬的方式分類。

which was the dominant spaghetti sauce of the 70s and 80s.

以甜度，蒜的多少，辛辣度，酸度，蕃茄的濃度，

In the industry -- I don't know whether you care about this,

可見的料的多少 -- 這是我在義大利麪的行業中最喜歡的詞語。 (笑聲)

or how much time I have to go into this.

用各種可變化的方式來產出不同的蕃茄醬。

But it was, technically speaking -- this is an aside --

然後他就帶著全部45種義大利麪醬出發。

Prego is a better tomato sauce than Ragù.

他到了紐約，芝加哥，傑克遜維，洛杉磯。

The quality of the tomato paste is much better;

他用貨車載人到大禮堂

the spice mix is far superior;

在兩小時裡給他們

it adheres to the pasta in a much more pleasing way.

十碗義大利麪。

In fact, they would do the famous bowl test

這十碗義大利麪各有不同的醬。

back in the 70s with Ragù and Prego.

當他們每嚐完一碗後，他們都以零至100中給評分。

You'd have a plate of spaghetti, and you would pour it on, right?

評定哪一款義大利麪他們覺得最好。

And the Ragù would all go to the bottom, and the Prego would sit on top.

經過多個月來的試吃後，

That's called "adherence."

他得到了很多有關美國人

And, anyway, despite the fact that they were far superior in adherence,

對義大利麪醬感想的數據。

and the quality of their tomato paste,

他分析結果。

Prego was struggling.

但他有沒有去尋找最熱門的口味呢? 沒有!

So they came to Howard, and they said, fix us.

默斯克韋茲不相信有這樣東西。

And Howard looked at their product line, and he said,

相反，他看著數據

what you have is a dead tomato society.

希望把它們組成群組。

So he said, this is what I want to do.

看看是否可得出某個概念。

And he got together with the Campbell's soup kitchen,

當然，如果你坐下來分析所有義大利麪的數據時，

and he made 45 varieties of spaghetti sauce.

你會發現美國人的口味可分三種。

And he varied them according to every conceivable way

有些人喜歡醬料樸實，

that you can vary tomato sauce:

有些人喜歡醬料辛辣，

by sweetness, by level of garlic,

有些人喜歡醬料特別有咬感。

by tomatoey-ness, by tartness, by sourness,

在這三類中，尤以第三種更為明顯。

by visible solids --

因為在當時，在八零年代初，

my favorite term in the spaghetti sauce business.

若你到超級市場，

(Laughter)

你無法發現特別爽脆的義大利麪醬。

Every conceivable way you can vary spaghetti sauce,

Prego 轉向默斯克韋茲問到，

he varied spaghetti sauce.

"你告訴我有三分之一美國人鍾情特別爽脆的義大利麪醬，

And then he took this whole raft of 45 spaghetti sauces,

但沒有人滿足他們的要求?" 他回答說，"是。"

and he went on the road.

(笑聲) Prego 回去

He went to New York, to Chicago,

完全把他們的義大利麪醬重新調配，

he went to Jacksonville, to Los Angeles.

製造一系列特別爽脆的醬。這立即而且完全

And he brought in people by the truckload into big halls.

攻佔全國整個義大利麪的工業。

And he sat them down for two hours,

而在之後的十數年裡，他們從這個特別爽脆的醬料中

and over the course of that two hours, he gave them ten bowls.

得到六億元的收入。

Ten small bowls of pasta,

而其他所有在這行業的人望著默斯克韋茲的所為全都說，

with a different spaghetti sauce on each one.

"我的天呀! 我們全都想錯了。"

And after they ate each bowl, they had to rate, from 0 to 100,

而這就開始了七種不同口味的醋，

how good they thought the spaghetti sauce was.

十四種不同的芥末，七十一種不同的橄欖油

At the end of that process, after doing it for months and months,

最終連Ragu 都聘請默斯克韋茲，

he had a mountain of data

而他為Ragu 作了完全相同的事情。

about how the American people feel about spaghetti sauce.

今天，若你到超級市場，非常好的那間，

And then he analyzed the data.

你會看到多麼的Ragu

Did he look for the most popular variety of spaghetti sauce?

你知道他們有多少種? 36 種!

No! Howard doesn't believe that there is such a thing.

有六種類別: 乳酪，輕味， 羅布斯托，

Instead, he looked at the data, and he said,

濃厚，世界經典，特別爽脆，田園風味 (笑聲)

let's see if we can group all these different data points into clusters.

這是默斯克韋茲貢獻的。這是他給美國人的禮物。

Let's see if they congregate around certain ideas.

這有什麼重要呢?

And sure enough, if you sit down,

事實上它是非常重要。讓我來說明。

and you analyze all this data on spaghetti sauce,

默斯克韋茲從根本改變飲食業對

you realize that all Americans fall into one of three groups.

如何滿足我們快樂的想法。

There are people who like their spaghetti sauce plain;

它們以往首先假設

there are people who like their spaghetti sauce spicy;

想要找出人類想吃什麼的方法

and there are people who like it extra chunky.

或想知道什麼會令他們高興 -- 是要去詢問他們。

And of those three facts, the third one was the most significant,

在很多很多年裡，Ragu 和 Prego會成立

because at the time, in the early 1980s,

焦點團體,他們會把顧客集合起來問他們，

if you went to a supermarket,

"你想要什麼的義大利麪醬呀? 告訴我你的需求吧。"

you would not find extra-chunky spaghetti sauce.

在這二、三十年裡 --

And Prego turned to Howard, and they said,

通過這些焦點團體，

"You're telling me that one third of Americans

沒有人說他們想要特別爽脆。

crave extra-chunky spaghetti sauce

儘管當中至少有三分之一人從心底裡想要。

and yet no one is servicing their needs?"

(笑聲)

And he said "Yes!"

人們不知道他們想要什麼! 對吧?

(Laughter)

默斯克韋茲喜歡說，"頭腦不知道舌頭的喜好。"

And Prego then went back,

這是一個謎!

and completely reformulated their spaghetti sauce,

而最關鍵的一點是　我們了解自己的慾望和口味時

and came out with a line of extra chunky that immediately and completely

才發現無法表達自己內心深處的想法

took over the spaghetti sauce business in this country.

例如，如果我問在這房間裡的你們，你們想要怎樣的咖啡，

And over the next 10 years, they made 600 million dollars

你會知道你會回答什麼嗎? 每個人都會答，"我要香濃碳燒黑咖啡。"

off their line of extra-chunky sauces.

這是人們經常回答的答案。

Everyone else in the industry looked at Howard had done, and they said,

你喜歡哪一種? 香濃碳燒黑咖啡!

"Oh my god! We've been thinking all wrong!"

究竟你們有多少個百分比的人真的喜歡香濃碳燒黑咖啡?

And that's when you started to get seven different kinds of vinegar,

根據默斯克韋茲，大概介於百分之25 至27。

and 14 different kinds of mustard, and 71 different kinds of olive oil.

你們大部份喜歡奶味淡咖啡。

And then eventually even Ragù hired Howard,

但你們永遠不會向問你這問題的人說出你想要的 --

and Howard did the exact same thing for Ragù that he did for Prego.

"我想要奶味淡咖啡。"

And today, if you go to a really good supermarket,

所以這是默斯克韋茲的首要貢獻。

do you know how many Ragùs there are?

第二件默斯克韋茲讓我們明白的事 --

36!

這是另一個非常關鍵的點子 --

In six varieties:

他令我們明白他所謂的橫向分割的重要。

Cheese, Light,

為什麼這是那麼的重要呢? 因為

Robusto, Rich & Hearty,

這是飲食業在默斯克韋茲之前的想法。不對嗎?

Old World Traditional --

是他們八零年代初所堅持? 他們對芥末的堅持。

Extra-Chunky Garden.

特別是對Grey Poupon 的故事所堅持。 對嗎?

(Laughter)

以往有兩款芥末。法國味和古爾登味。

That's Howard's doing.

它們是什麼? 黃色芥末。 它有什麼?

That is Howard's gift to the American people.

黃色芥末種子、薑黃和辣椒粉。 這就是芥末了。

Now why is that important?

Grey Poupon 就有第戎。不是嗎?

(Laughter)

比較易揮發的啡色芥末種子、一些白酒，

It is, in fact, enormously important.

和比較刺鼻的芳草。它們用作什麼?

I'll explain to you why.

他們放在一個細小的玻璃瓶裡，有一個美妙的搪瓷標籤。

What Howard did is he fundamentally changed the way the food industry thinks

讓它看上去好像是法國製造但實際上是在加州奧克斯納德所製。

about making you happy.

原本收取1.5元一瓶八盎司的芥末，

Assumption number one in the food industry used to be

因為法國味和古爾登味，他們決定收取四元。

that the way to find out what people want to eat,

而他們有那些廣告，對嗎?有一個男子駕駛他的勞斯萊斯，

what will make people happy, is to ask them.

而他正吃著他的Grey Poupon。 另一輛勞斯萊斯駛來，

And for years and years and years,

他便問到，"你有Grey Poupon 嗎?"

Ragù and Prego would have focus groups,

整個事件到最後，當他做完這個後，Grey Poupon 起飛!

and they would sit you down, and they would say,

它攻佔芥末業!

"What do you want in a spaghetti sauce?

而所有人從這得到的教訓是

Tell us what you want in a spaghetti sauce."

要令他人感到高興

And for all those years -- 20, 30 years --

就要給予他們一些更昂貴，一些令他們渴望的事物。對吧!

through all those focus group sessions,

要他們背棄他們現在所想的，

no one ever said they wanted extra-chunky.

去追求一些在芥末業裡更高的層次。

Even though at least a third of them, deep in their hearts, actually did.

一個更好的芥末。一個更昂貴的芥末。

(Laughter)

一個更複雜，更有文化和意義的芥末。

People don't know what they want!

默斯克韋茲看著這並說，這是錯的!

As Howard loves to say,

芥末是不存在等級。

"The mind knows not what the tongue wants."

芥末就好像蕃茄醬一樣只有平行面。

It's a mystery!

這裡沒有好的芥末或壞的芥末。

(Laughter)

這裡沒有完美的芥末或不完美的芥末。

And a critically important step

只有不同種類的芥末來迎合不同種類的人。

in understanding our own desires and tastes

他從根本解放我們對味覺的想法。

is to realize that we cannot always explain what we want, deep down.

就因為這樣　我們欠默斯克韋茲一個深深的感謝。