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  • I think I was supposed to talk about my new book,

    我想我今天應該是要談我的新書,

  • which is called "Blink,"

    書名叫《決斷2秒間》,探討的是瞬間判斷和第一印象。

  • and it's about snap judgments and first impressions.

    它會明年一月上市,希望大家都各買三本。

  • And it comes out in January, and I hope you all buy it in triplicate.

    但是當我在想這件事情的時候,

  • (Laughter)

    我發現雖然我的新書讓我開心、

  • But I was thinking about this,

    也會讓我媽開心,

  • and I realized that although my new book makes me happy,

    這些卻跟快樂無關。

  • and I think would make my mother happy,

    所以,我決定不要談新書,而是跟大家介紹一位

  • it's not really about happiness.

    我覺得在這過去二十年來,

  • So I decided instead, I would talk about someone

    比誰都讓美國人快樂的人。

  • who I think has done as much to make Americans happy

    這個人是我心目中的英雄。

  • as perhaps anyone over the last 20 years,

    他的名字是默斯克韋茲。

  • a man who is a great personal hero of mine:

    他以重新發明義大利麵醬而聞名。

  • someone by the name of Howard Moskowitz,

    默斯克韋茲大概這麼高、身材圓滾滾、

  • who is most famous for reinventing spaghetti sauce.

    六十來歲、戴著巨大的眼鏡、

  • Howard's about this high, and he's round,

    和稀疏的白髮、流露出一種奇妙的活力和朝氣,

  • and he's in his 60s, and he has big huge glasses

    他養了一隻鸚鵡、熱愛歌劇、

  • and thinning gray hair,

    也是中世紀歷史的愛好者。

  • and he has a kind of wonderful exuberance and vitality,

    他的職業是心理物理學家。

  • and he has a parrot, and he loves the opera,

    我應該告訴你們,我完全不知道心理物理學是什麼東西,

  • and he's a great aficionado of medieval history.

    雖然我曾經跟一個攻讀

  • And by profession, he's a psychophysicist.

    心理物理學博士的女生約會。

  • Now, I should tell you that I have no idea what psychophysics is,

    這大概透露出那段感情的一些訊息。(笑聲)

  • although at some point in my life,

    從我所知道的,心理物理學是要測量東西。

  • I dated a girl for two years

    而默斯克韋茲對測量東西非常有興趣。

  • who was getting her doctorate in psychophysics.

    他得到哈佛博士後,

  • Which should tell you something about that relationship.

    在紐約的White Plains成立了一家小顧問公司。

  • (Laughter)

    他的第一個客戶就是-這是在很多年前,在七零年代初期

  • As far as I know, psychophysics is about measuring things.

    -他的第一個客戶就是百事可樂。

  • And Howard is very interested in measuring things.

    百事可樂找了默斯克韋茲,說:

  • And he graduated with his doctorate from Harvard,

    "你知道嗎,現在有個新東西叫阿斯巴甜,

  • and he set up a little consulting shop in White Plains, New York.

    我們想要用來做健怡百事可樂。

  • And one of his first clients was Pepsi.

    我們希望你可以幫我們研究出,我們應該在每罐健怡百事可樂

  • This is many years ago, back in the early 70s.

    放入多少阿斯巴甜,才會得到最完美的飲料。" 對嗎?

  • And Pepsi came to Howard and they said,

    這聽起來應該是個最可以直接回答的問題,

  • "You know, there's this new thing called aspartame,

    默斯克韋茲也是這麼想。因為百事可樂告訴他,

  • and we would like to make Diet Pepsi.

    "看,我們目前正在考慮界於百分之8和百分之12之間的甜度。

  • We'd like you to figure out

    百分之8以下的甜度不夠甜、

  • how much aspartame we should put in each can of Diet Pepsi

    而百分之12以上的甜度太甜。

  • in order to have the perfect drink."

    我們想知道,界乎百分之8和12之間的理想甜值是多少?"

  • Now that sounds like an incredibly straightforward question to answer,

    假如我現在叫你們解決這個問題,你們一定會說:"很簡單啦!"

  • and that's what Howard thought.

    首先,製造一大批的百事可樂做實驗,

  • Because Pepsi told him,

    製造不同的甜度-百分之8、 8.1、8.2、8.3,

  • "We're working with a band between eight and 12 percent.

    一直到百分之12-讓幾千個人試喝,

  • Anything below eight percent sweetness is not sweet enough;

    再把數據畫成曲線圖,

  • anything above 12 percent sweetness is too sweet.

    然後再取最受歡迎的甜度。對吧?很簡單。

  • We want to know: what's the sweet spot between 8 and 12?"

    默斯克韋茲做了實驗,得到數據,再畫成曲線圖,

  • Now, if I gave you this problem to do, you would all say, it's very simple.

    卻突然發現不是一個漂亮的鐘形曲線。

  • What we do is you make up a big experimental batch of Pepsi,

    事實上,從數據上根本看不出個所以然來。

  • at every degree of sweetness -- eight percent, 8.1, 8.2, 8.3,

    它亂無章法,分佈在各處。

  • all the way up to 12 --

    其實,大部分從事那種行業的人、在食品測試之類的世界裡,

  • and we try this out with thousands of people,

    得到這種亂無章法的數據都不會感到驚訝。

  • and we plot the results on a curve,

    他們會想說:"嗯,你知道嘍,要搞清楚大家對可樂的喜好並沒有那麼簡單。"

  • and we take the most popular concentration, right?

    "嗯,也許我們在實驗的過程中哪裡出了錯。"

  • Really simple.

    "嗯,那我們來做個學術性的猜測,"

  • Howard does the experiment, and he gets the data back,

    然後他們就指向百分之10,就在正中間。

  • and he plots it on a curve,

    默斯克韋茲可就沒這麼容易說服。

  • and all of a sudden he realizes it's not a nice bell curve.

    默斯克韋茲是個秉持某程度的智慧標準的人。

  • In fact, the data doesn't make any sense.

    這種作法無法滿足他,

  • It's a mess. It's all over the place.

    而這個問題也困惑了他好幾年。

  • Now, most people in that business, in the world of testing food and such,

    他會徹底的去想究竟哪裡出錯。

  • are not dismayed when the data comes back a mess.

    為什麼我們不能令這個健怡百事可樂的實驗有意義?

  • They think, "Well, you know,

    有一天他坐在 White Plains裡用餐,

  • figuring out what people think about cola's not that easy."

    開始嘗試幻想為雀巢咖啡的事情。

  • "You know, maybe we made an error somewhere along the way."

    突然之間,好像靈光一閃,答案閃入他的腦中。

  • "You know, let's just make an educated guess,"

    那就是當他們分析健怡百事可樂的數據時,

  • and they simply point and they go for 10 percent,

    他們問了一個錯誤的問題。

  • right in the middle.

    他們在找一個完美的百事可樂,

  • Howard is not so easily placated.

    而他們應該找多個完美的百事可樂。相信我吧!

  • Howard is a man of a certain degree of intellectual standards.

    這是一個重大的啟發。

  • And this was not good enough for him,

    這是在飲食這門科學中其中一個最聰明的突破。

  • and this question bedeviled him for years.

    而默斯克韋茲立即出發

  • And he would think it through and say, "What was wrong?

    到世界各地的研討會

  • Why could we not make sense of this experiment with Diet Pepsi?"

    去演說。他會說:

  • And one day, he was sitting in a diner in White Plains,

    "你們尋找一個完美的百事可樂是錯的。

  • about to go trying to dream up some work for Nescafé.

    你們應該尋找多種完美的百事可樂。"

  • And suddenly, like a bolt of lightning, the answer came to him.

    而其他人很茫然的望著他,並說,

  • And that is, that when they analyzed the Diet Pepsi data,

    "你在說什麼?你瘋了。"

  • they were asking the wrong question.

    他們會續說,"好,下一位!"

  • They were looking for the perfect Pepsi,

    他嘗試找生意。沒有人聘用他 -- 但他仍然堅持

  • and they should have been looking for the perfect Pepsis.

    他不斷的談及它,再談及它,再談及它。

  • Trust me.

    默斯克韋茲很愛意第緒語的一句表達

  • This was an enormous revelation.

    "對於一個在辣根的蠕蟲來說,世界只有辣根。"

  • This was one of the most brilliant breakthroughs in all of food science.

    這是他的辣根。 (笑聲) 他對此很堅持。

  • Howard immediately went on the road,

    最後他有一個突破,弗拉希奇醬菜找他

  • and he would go to conferences around the country,

    他們說,"默斯克韋茲先生 -- 默斯克韋茲博士 --

  • and he would stand up and say,

    我們想製造完美的醬菜。" 而他回答說,

  • "You had been looking for the perfect Pepsi.

    "世上沒有一個完美的醬菜,只有完美的醬菜們。"

  • You're wrong.

    他回去跟他們說,"你們不只要改善你們的常規,

  • You should be looking for the perfect Pepsis."

    也需要創造驚喜。"

  • And people would look at him blankly and say,

    這就是我們得到美好的醬菜的方法。

  • "What are you talking about? Craziness."

    跟著找他的是康寶濃湯。

  • And they would say, "Move! Next!"

    這個更為重要。事實上

  • Tried to get business, nobody would hire him --

    康寶濃湯是令默斯克韋茲成名的。

  • he was obsessed, though,

    康寶濃湯生產 Prego,而 Prego 在八零年代初在 Ragu 的競爭中掙扎求存。

  • and he talked about it and talked about it.

    Ragu 在七零和八零年代是最主要的義大利麪醬。

  • Howard loves the Yiddish expression

    現在在這個行業裡 -- 我不知道你對此有多少關心,

  • "To a worm in horseradish, the world is horseradish."

    或我應花多少時間說明。

  • This was his horseradish.

    但,以技術上來說,

  • (Laughter)

    Prego 比 Ragu 有更好的蕃茄醬。

  • He was obsessed with it!

    蕃茄膏的品質更好,香料的配搭更出色。

  • And finally, he had a breakthrough.

    它更容易黏附在義大利麪。事實上

  • Vlasic Pickles came to him,

    他們在七零年代用Ragu 和 Prego 做了一個很有名的測試。

  • and they said, "Doctor Moskowitz, we want to make the perfect pickle."

    如果你有一盤義大利麪,你會把醬倒上去,對嗎?

  • And he said,

    而 Ragu 會全沉在底下, 而 Prego 則會凝在表層。

  • "There is no perfect pickle; there are only perfect pickles."

    這就是"黏附性"。

  • And he came back to them and he said,

    無論如何,儘管事實證明它們的黏附性較優,

  • "You don't just need to improve your regular;

    蕃茄醬的品質較好,Prego 還是掙扎著。

  • you need to create zesty."

    所以他們去與默斯克韋茲見面並說,幫我們調整吧。

  • And that's where we got zesty pickles.

    默斯克韋茲看了他們的生產線後說,

  • Then the next person came to him: Campbell's Soup.

    "你們所擁有的是一個已死的蕃茄社會。

  • And this was even more important.

    這是我將會做的。

  • In fact, Campbell's Soup is where Howard made his reputation.

    他在康寶濃湯的廚房裡

  • Campbell's made Prego,

    製造45種不同的義大利麪醬,把它們

  • and Prego, in the early 80s, was struggling next to Ragù,

    根據各種可能分辨蕃茄醬的方式分類。

  • which was the dominant spaghetti sauce of the 70s and 80s.

    以甜度,蒜的多少,辛辣度,酸度,蕃茄的濃度,

  • In the industry -- I don't know whether you care about this,

    可見的料的多少 -- 這是我在義大利麪的行業中最喜歡的詞語。 (笑聲)

  • or how much time I have to go into this.

    用各種可變化的方式來產出不同的蕃茄醬。

  • But it was, technically speaking -- this is an aside --

    然後他就帶著全部45種義大利麪醬出發。

  • Prego is a better tomato sauce than Ragù.

    他到了紐約,芝加哥,傑克遜維,洛杉磯。

  • The quality of the tomato paste is much better;

    他用貨車載人到大禮堂

  • the spice mix is far superior;

    在兩小時裡給他們

  • it adheres to the pasta in a much more pleasing way.

    十碗義大利麪。

  • In fact, they would do the famous bowl test

    這十碗義大利麪各有不同的醬。

  • back in the 70s with Ragù and Prego.

    當他們每嚐完一碗後,他們都以零至100中給評分。

  • You'd have a plate of spaghetti, and you would pour it on, right?

    評定哪一款義大利麪他們覺得最好。

  • And the Ragù would all go to the bottom, and the Prego would sit on top.

    經過多個月來的試吃後,

  • That's called "adherence."

    他得到了很多有關美國人

  • And, anyway, despite the fact that they were far superior in adherence,

    對義大利麪醬感想的數據。

  • and the quality of their tomato paste,

    他分析結果。

  • Prego was struggling.

    但他有沒有去尋找最熱門的口味呢? 沒有!

  • So they came to Howard, and they said, fix us.

    默斯克韋茲不相信有這樣東西。

  • And Howard looked at their product line, and he said,

    相反,他看著數據

  • what you have is a dead tomato society.

    希望把它們組成群組。

  • So he said, this is what I want to do.

    看看是否可得出某個概念。

  • And he got together with the Campbell's soup kitchen,

    當然,如果你坐下來分析所有義大利麪的數據時,

  • and he made 45 varieties of spaghetti sauce.

    你會發現美國人的口味可分三種。

  • And he varied them according to every conceivable way

    有些人喜歡醬料樸實,

  • that you can vary tomato sauce:

    有些人喜歡醬料辛辣,

  • by sweetness, by level of garlic,

    有些人喜歡醬料特別有咬感。

  • by tomatoey-ness, by tartness, by sourness,

    在這三類中,尤以第三種更為明顯。

  • by visible solids --

    因為在當時,在八零年代初,

  • my favorite term in the spaghetti sauce business.

    若你到超級市場,

  • (Laughter)

    你無法發現特別爽脆的義大利麪醬。

  • Every conceivable way you can vary spaghetti sauce,

    Prego 轉向默斯克韋茲問到,

  • he varied spaghetti sauce.

    "你告訴我有三分之一美國人鍾情特別爽脆的義大利麪醬,

  • And then he took this whole raft of 45 spaghetti sauces,

    但沒有人滿足他們的要求?" 他回答說,"是。"

  • and he went on the road.

    (笑聲) Prego 回去

  • He went to New York, to Chicago,

    完全把他們的義大利麪醬重新調配,

  • he went to Jacksonville, to Los Angeles.

    製造一系列特別爽脆的醬。這立即而且完全

  • And he brought in people by the truckload into big halls.

    攻佔全國整個義大利麪的工業。

  • And he sat them down for two hours,

    而在之後的十數年裡,他們從這個特別爽脆的醬料中

  • and over the course of that two hours, he gave them ten bowls.

    得到六億元的收入。

  • Ten small bowls of pasta,

    而其他所有在這行業的人望著默斯克韋茲的所為全都說,

  • with a different spaghetti sauce on each one.

    "我的天呀! 我們全都想錯了。"

  • And after they ate each bowl, they had to rate, from 0 to 100,

    而這就開始了七種不同口味的醋,

  • how good they thought the spaghetti sauce was.

    十四種不同的芥末,七十一種不同的橄欖油

  • At the end of that process, after doing it for months and months,

    最終連Ragu 都聘請默斯克韋茲,

  • he had a mountain of data

    而他為Ragu 作了完全相同的事情。

  • about how the American people feel about spaghetti sauce.

    今天,若你到超級市場,非常好的那間,

  • And then he analyzed the data.

    你會看到多麼的Ragu

  • Did he look for the most popular variety of spaghetti sauce?

    你知道他們有多少種? 36 種!

  • No! Howard doesn't believe that there is such a thing.

    有六種類別: 乳酪,輕味, 羅布斯托,

  • Instead, he looked at the data, and he said,

    濃厚,世界經典,特別爽脆,田園風味 (笑聲)

  • let's see if we can group all these different data points into clusters.

    這是默斯克韋茲貢獻的。這是他給美國人的禮物。