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  • There's a poem written

    譯者: Ou Chih-Hong 審譯者: Sean Chuang

  • by a very famous English poet

    有一首詩這麼寫道

  • at the end of the 19th century.

    這是一位很有名的英國詩人

  • It was said to echo in Churchill's brain

    在十九世紀末寫的

  • in the 1930s.

    聽說邱吉爾對這首詩也念念不忘

  • And the poem goes:

    在1930年那個時候

  • "On the idle hill of summer,

    這首詩是這麼寫的:

  • lazy with the flow of streams,

    「夏日的慵懶之丘上

  • hark I hear a distant drummer,

    厭倦了小河細流

  • drumming like a sound in dreams,

    聽,我聽到了遠方的鼓聲

  • far and near and low and louder on the roads of earth go by,

    就像在夢裡聽到似的

  • dear to friend and food to powder,

    遠的、近的、低沉的、高亢的,在路上迴盪著

  • soldiers marching,

    從愛人到朋友,從食物到麵粉

  • soon to die."

    士兵踏著步

  • Those who are interested in poetry,

    快步地走向死亡。」

  • the poem is "A Shropshire Lad" written by A.E. Housman.

    想知道這首詩名的人

  • But what Housman understood,

    這是豪斯曼的詩集《舒洛普郡少年》

  • and you hear it in the symphonies of Nielsen too,

    不過,豪斯曼所知道的

  • was that the long, hot, silvan summers

    你也在尼爾森交響曲中聽過

  • of stability of the 19th century

    就是十九世紀那漫長,炎熱,遍地林木的夏天

  • were coming to a close,

    一切都很平和的夏天

  • and that we were about to move

    即將走向終點

  • into one of those terrifying periods of history

    當時,我們正要踏入

  • when power changes.

    歷史上最令人恐懼的一段日子

  • And these are always periods, ladies and gentlemen,

    因為權力將要轉移

  • accompanied by turbulence,

    各位先生女士

  • and all too often by blood.

    這些日子總是伴隨著騷動

  • And my message for you

    偶爾也有血腥的暴力

  • is that I believe we are condemned, if you like,

    告訴你們

  • to live at just one of those moments in history

    我認為,我們無一倖免

  • when the gimbals upon which

    都活在歷史上的那些日子

  • the established order of power is beginning to change

    當那些已經建立的秩序

  • and the new look of the world,

    發生劇變

  • the new powers that exist in the world,

    也從新的角度來看這世界

  • are beginning to take form.

    存在這世界上的新權力

  • And these are -- and we see it very clearly today --

    正在慢慢成形

  • nearly always highly turbulent times, highly difficult times,

    我們也曉得是哪些新權力

  • and all too often very bloody times.

    就是那些非常動亂、極為艱困的時代

  • By the way, it happens about once every century.

    偶爾也參雜著血腥暴力

  • You might argue that the last time it happened --

    順便一提,這種事每個世紀都會發生一次

  • and that's what Housman felt coming and what Churchill felt too --

    你或許會辯駁我說,最後一次發生的時間

  • was that when power passed from the old nations,

    也就是豪斯曼和邱吉爾覺得有事即將發生的時候

  • the old powers of Europe,

    是權力從衰落的國家

  • across the Atlantic to the new emerging power

    像是歐洲的舊權

  • of the United States of America --

    越過大西洋,到了新興權力崛起的國家

  • the beginning of the American century.

    美利堅合眾國

  • And of course, into the vacuum

    也正是美國開始強盛的世紀

  • where the too-old European powers used to be

    當然,在那個時候

  • were played the two bloody catastrophes

    歐洲人過時的權力

  • of the last century --

    被人用來挑起兩場血腥的災難

  • the one in the first part and the one in the second part: the two great World Wars.

    就在那最後一個世紀

  • Mao Zedong used to refer to them as the European civil wars,

    兩場災難分別是兩次的世界大戰

  • and it's probably a more accurate way of describing them.

    毛澤東說那是歐洲人的內戰

  • Well, ladies and gentlemen,

    這麼說也真的比較貼切

  • we live at one of those times.

    各位

  • But for us, I want to talk about three factors today.

    我們現在也生活在那些過去的日子

  • And the first of these, the first two of these,

    我今天就是要談三個因素

  • is about a shift in power.

    這三個因素中的第一個

  • And the second is about some new dimension which I want to refer to,

    就是權力移轉

  • which has never quite happened in the way it's happening now.

    第二個因素,我想要講一塊新領域

  • But let's talk about the shifts of power that are occurring to the world.

    過去從來沒有像現在這樣發生過

  • And what is happening today

    不過,先來談談現今世上的權力移轉吧

  • is, in one sense, frightening

    現在世上的權力移轉

  • because it's never happened before.

    從某種層面來看,相當震懾人心

  • We have seen lateral shifts of power --

    因為過去從沒發生過

  • the power of Greece passed to Rome

    我們曾見過幾次橫向的權力移轉

  • and the power shifts that occurred

    像是希臘轉到羅馬

  • during the European civilizations --

    還有發生在歐洲社會的

  • but we are seeing something slightly different.

    權力移轉

  • For power is not just moving laterally

    但現在發生的權力移轉,有些微的不同

  • from nation to nation.

    因為權力不只是國與國之間的

  • It's also moving vertically.

    橫向移轉

  • What's happening today is that the power that was encased,

    也有直向移轉

  • held to accountability, held to the rule of law,

    現今所存在的權力,受到責任的牽制

  • within the institution of the nation state

    也受到法律的牽制

  • has now migrated in very large measure onto the global stage.

    越來越多的民族國家的機構

  • The globalization of power --

    開始浮上國際檯面

  • we talk about the globalization of markets,

    全球化的權力

  • but actually it's the globalization of real power.

    雖然我們說是全球化市場

  • And where, at the nation state level

    但事實上,卻是全球化權力

  • that power is held to accountability

    從民族國家的角度來看

  • subject to the rule of law,

    受到責任、法律

  • on the international stage it is not.

    所牽制的權力

  • The international stage and the global stage where power now resides:

    在國際舞台上則否

  • the power of the Internet, the power of the satellite broadcasters,

    當今存在於國際舞台上的權力有

  • the power of the money changers --

    網路的權力,衛星廣播的權力

  • this vast money-go-round

    貨幣兌換的權力

  • that circulates now 32 times the amount of money necessary

    兌換大筆金錢

  • for the trade it's supposed to be there to finance --

    數目是過去財政所需的

  • the money changers, if you like,

    三十二倍

  • the financial speculators

    負責貨幣兌換的人

  • that have brought us all to our knees quite recently,

    或是叫他們金融投機客

  • the power of the multinational corporations

    他們最近確實讓些活動停止下來

  • now developing budgets

    多國企業所擁有的權力

  • often bigger than medium-sized countries.

    正在發展預算

  • These live in a global space

    有的預算數目比許多中型國家還要大筆

  • which is largely unregulated,

    那些人住在一個全球化的空間

  • not subject to the rule of law,

    幾乎沒有人來管

  • and in which people may act free of constraint.

    也沒有法律的牽制

  • Now that suits the powerful

    人們想做什麼就做什麼

  • up to a moment.

    到目前為止

  • It's always suitable for those who have the most power

    那些都是強權人士想要的

  • to operate in spaces without constraint,

    那些情況,總是適合掌有大多數權力的人

  • but the lesson of history is that, sooner or later,

    他們不受限制的束縛

  • unregulated space --

    然而,那些無人管制的地方

  • space not subject to the rule of law --

    歷史給他們的教訓

  • becomes populated, not just by the things you wanted --

    那些不受法律牽制的地方

  • international trade, the Internet, etc. --

    人口會變多,也有你樂見的情

  • but also by the things you don't want --

    像是國際貿易、網路‧‧‧等等

  • international criminality, international terrorism.

    當然,也有一些你不願看到的

  • The revelation of 9/11

    像是國際犯罪、跨國恐怖組織

  • is that even if you are the most powerful nation on earth,

    從911就可以知道

  • nevertheless,

    就算你住在世界上最強勢的國家

  • those who inhabit that space can attack you

    儘管如此

  • even in your most iconic of cities

    那些空間的人還是可以攻擊你

  • one bright September morning.

    甚至在九月的一個早晨中

  • It's said that something like 60 percent

    攻擊你國家最具代表性的象徵

  • of the four million dollars that was taken to fund 9/11

    聽說四百萬塊中

  • actually passed through the institutions of the Twin Towers

    大約有百分之六十拿去資助911恐怖攻擊

  • which 9/11 destroyed.

    那次恐怖攻擊的飛機穿透雙子星大樓

  • You see, our enemies also use this space --

    那也是911摧毀的建築

  • the space of mass travel, the Internet, satellite broadcasters --

    瞧,我們的敵人用這樣的空間

  • to be able to get around their poison,

    涵蓋如此多人的旅遊、網路、衛星廣播的空間

  • which is about destroying our systems and our ways.

    來達成他們的恐怖理念

  • Sooner or later,

    也就是雖毀我們的組織系統

  • sooner or later,

    早晚

  • the rule of history

    早晚都會發生的

  • is that where power goes

    歷史告訴我們

  • governance must follow.

    無論權力到哪裡

  • And if it is therefore the case, as I believe it is,

    統治者就得跟著權力走

  • that one of the phenomenon of our time

    而我相信也是因為如此

  • is the globalization of power,

    成就了現今社會

  • then it follows that one of the challenges of our time

    權力全球化的現象

  • is to bring governance to the global space.

    我們這世代所面對的挑戰

  • And I believe that the decades ahead of us now

    就是把統治者帶上國際舞台

  • will be to a greater or lesser extent turbulent

    我覺得在往後的幾十年

  • the more or less we are able to achieve that aim:

    會有些騷動,程度或大或小

  • to bring governance to the global space.

    不管怎麼樣,我們有能力達到那目標

  • Now notice, I'm not talking about government.

    把統治者帶上國際舞台

  • I'm not talking about setting up

    注意,我不是在討論統治者

  • some global democratic institution.

    也不是討論該如何建立

  • My own view, by the way, ladies and gentlemen,

    什麼全球化民主機構

  • is that this is unlikely to be done

    對了各位,順便一提

  • by spawning more U.N. institutions.

    我覺得建立再多像是聯合國這類的機構

  • If we didn't have the U.N., we'd have to invent it.

    對這件事情並不會有什麼幫助

  • The world needs an international forum.

    我們要是沒有聯合國,我們就生一個出來就好了

  • It needs a means by which you can legitimize international action.

    這世界需要的是一個國際論壇

  • But when it comes to governance of the global space,

    藉由國際論壇,國際行動因而得以合法化

  • my guess is this won't happen

    但是,一談到國際舞台該由誰來統治

  • through the creation of more U.N. institutions.

    我覺得再多的聯合國

  • It will actually happen by the powerful coming together

    都沒有辦法解決這問題

  • and making treaty-based systems,

    當強權聚在一起時,這個問題就會產生

  • treaty-based agreements,

    他們因而建立用合約作為基礎的一套系統

  • to govern that global space.

    或是協定

  • And if you look, you can see them happening, already beginning to emerge.

    來統管這個國際舞台

  • The World Trade Organization: treaty-based organization,

    要是你仔細點看,你會發現這類的事情正慢慢發生

  • entirely treaty-based,

    世界貿易組織,就是個合約為底的組織

  • and yet, powerful enough to hold even the most powerful, the United States,

    完全用合約來統治

  • to account if necessary.

    這些合約強勢到能夠控制當今最強的國家,像是美國

  • Kyoto: the beginnings of struggling to create

    必要的話,甚至可以摧毀美國

  • a treaty-based organization.

    京都議定書:努力奮鬥

  • The G20:

    去制定了此一合約為底的組織

  • we know now that we have to put together an institution

    二十國集團

  • which is capable of bringing governance

    現在,我們知道得組一個

  • to that financial space for financial speculation.

    能夠把統治權帶到金融空間的機構

  • And that's what the G20 is, a treaty-based institution.

    為了那些金融活動

  • Now there's a problem there,

    這就是二十國集團因而建立的原因

  • and we'll come back to it in a minute,

    現在有個問題了