suggests that once the economy has returned to full employment, and absent in the other shocks,

這樣的結果指出，一旦經濟回復到就業率飽和的狀態，並免於遭受其他波瀾，

core inflation should return to its pre-recession average level of about 2%.

核心通膨應該會回歸至經濟大蕭條前的平均值大約 2% 左右。

This conclusion is tempered somewhat by recent movements, in longer run, inflation compensation,

最近局勢得出這樣的結論，而長遠來看則是受到通貨膨脹補助的波動

which in principle could reflect changes and investors' expectations for long-run inflation.

這原則上能夠反映改變以及投資人對於長期通貨膨脹的心理。

This measure is now noticeably lower than in the years just prior to the financial crisis.

這個方法相較於金融海嘯前幾年已大大降低

However, movements in inflation compensation are difficult to interpret because they can be driven by factors that are unique to financial markets,

然而，造成補償通貨膨脹的是特有的金融市場變因，

such as movements in liquidity or risk premiums as well as by changes in expected inflation.

像是資產的流動或是風險溢價，又或者是預料中的通貨膨脹變化。

Indeed, empirical work that attempts to control for these factors

的確，試圖控制這些變因的經驗告訴我們

suggests that the long-run inflation expectations embedded in asset prices have, in fact, moved down relatively little over the past decade.

資產價格中長期通膨的預期相較過去十年下降較少，

Nevertheless, the decline in inflation compensation, that's the red line, over the past year

然而，過去這年來對通貨膨脹補助的削減創新低，

may indicate the financial market participants now see an increased risk of very low inflation persisting.

有參與金融市場的人都看到通貨膨脹持續低迷，風險卻增加。

Although the evident unbalance suggests that the inflation expectations are well-anchored at present,

儘管從明顯的不平衡可看出通膨的預期心理十分穩固，

policy makers would be unwise to take this situation for granted.

決策者不應將此狀況視為理所當然。

Anchored inflation expectations were not won easily or quick won.

我們無法輕易或快速地取得穩固通膨預期心理。

Experience suggests that it takes many years of carefully-conducted monetary policy to alter what households and firms perceive to be inflation's normal behavior.

經驗顯示，若要更動的完善貨幣政策需要花很多年，因為大家早已將之視為通貨膨脹的常態。

And furthermore, that the persistent failure to keep inflation under control by wedding a drift either too high or too low for too long

況且若一直未能掌握通貨膨脹，物價過高或過低太久，

could cause expectations to once again become unmoored.

都可能會造成預期心理再次流失。

Given that inflation has been running below the FOMC's objective for several years now, such concerns reinforce the appropriateness of the federal reserve's current monetary policy,

有鑑於通膨已經低於聯邦公開市場委員會的標準許久，這些焦慮迫使央行審視現存貨幣政策的正當性

which remains highly accommodative by historical standards, and is directed toward helping return inflation to 2% over the medium term.

在過去標準下衡量高度寬鬆，且在中期幫助通膨回報 2%

Before turning to the implications of this inflation model for the current outlook in monetary policy, I do think a cautionary note is in order.

在談到這個通膨模型對貨幣政策前景的影響之前，我認為現在該更加小心謹慎。

The Phillips Curve approach to forecasting inflation has a long history in economics, and it's usefully informed monetary policy decision-making around the globe.

以菲利浦斯曲線預測通膨在經濟學上歷時已久，它亦是全球參考制定貨幣政策的重要指標，

But the theoretical underpinnings of the model are still subject to controversy among economists.

但理論性質的模型的支撐對經濟學家來說始終存在爭議性。

Moreover, inflation sometimes moves in ways the empirical versions of the model, which necessarily are a simplified version of a complicated reality cannot adequately explain.

此外，而且，通膨的走向有時連經驗模型都無法正確解釋，因為經驗模型僅只是簡化的複雜現實。

And for this reason, significant uncertainty attaches to Phillips Curve predictions and the validity of forecast from this model

因此，透過經驗模型我們可以看出菲利浦斯曲線的預測和預報所伴隨的不確定性

do have to be continuously evaluated in response to incoming data.

我們也需配合新進的數據持續評估。