Name: 美聯儲錯過了加息窗口？| 美聯儲是否錯過了加息窗口？ (Did Fed miss window to raise rate? | FT Markets)
Uploaded: 2021-01-14T05:43:40.000Z
Duration: 8 min 13 s

Welcome to FT Markets. "Sorry, not today, come back another time."

歡迎來到金融時報市場 。「抱歉，今天不行，請下次再來。」

That was the message from Janet Yellen and her Federal Reserve colleagues.

這是 Janet Yellen 及她於美國聯邦儲備署的同事帶給大家的訊息。

As the U.S. central bank decides to keep rates on hold at their September meeting,

因為美國中央銀行在九月份的會議當中決定暫時維持兌換率。

as worries about the global economy persist.

因為大眾仍然十分擔憂全球經濟。

歐洲對於這件事的反應為何呢？

Well, the Euro was up, bond prices also went up, equities have gone down.

歐元升值，債券價值亦升高了，產權卻貶值了。

So, what are the short-term and medium-term implications of the Fed's decision?

美聯儲所做的決定將帶來怎麼樣的短期和中期影響呢？

With me to discuss this, is the FT Markets editor, Mike Mackenzie.

今天很榮幸邀請到金融時報的編輯 Michael Mackenzie 一起討論這個話題。

Mike, let's start with the Euro, which has seen a slow down, which is moving towards 1.15,

Mike，我們從歐元開始討論好了。歐元成長趨緩，目前已經朝1.15邁進，

which has been pretty weak as far as the dollars concern.

美元相較之下似乎價值越來越低。

Stronger Euro, weaker dollar, that's been the story for the last few weeks.

過去幾週以來，歐元不斷升值、美元貶值，

And looks like it's going to be continuing along that path.

Yes, as you can see from here, you've had a nice jump. Basically one figure change from below 1.14 to over 1.15 in the last 24 hours.

是的。你從這邊可以看出，歐元突然急遽升值，數據也在過去24小時之內從1.14以下升到1.15以上。

And that's essentially disappointment trade, the Fed, by sort of not raising rates, has kind of tempered the dollar Bulls.

美聯儲維持兌換率之時，亦影響了美元多頭，促使了貿易低潮，

As a result, the Euros picked up some steam.

The implication of this, of course is quite profound for equity investors in Europe.

這件事對於歐洲產權投資者的影響深遠。

Yes, so in terms of the trend that's... remember the days where we were talking about the Euro-dollar parity?

還記得我們上次談到歐元兌美元平價嗎？

I mean, that's now to the point where by we have two central banks both wanting pretty weak currencies.

現在的情況便是兩邊的中央銀行都爭相想要較低價值的貨幣。

Well, I'm not sure the Fed wants a weak currency. They've seen a tiny financial condition in the U.S. economy

其實我不認為美聯儲想要的是低價值的貨幣。他們在美國經濟中發現了小小的危機，

because the dollar has been picking up steam,

and because the dollar has been strengthening, it's hit commodity prices hard.

And it has put a lot of pressure on emerging markets.

許多發展中的市場也因此面臨不少壓力，

And if you look across the emerging market economies, they have a lot of dollar-denominated debt.

因為許多發展中市場的經濟體背負著美元債。

So, the last thing you want when your currency is weakening

最糟糕的情況便是當你的貨幣貶值，

is the dollar goes up and you're now having to pay back that debt in depreciating local currency terms.

此時美元卻升值，而你必須用當地貶值貨幣的價錢來還美元的債。

So, the Fed has essentially said. We're worried about China, we're worried about the local economy,

美聯儲已做過解釋。我們擔憂中國和當地的經濟前景，

we're holding fire, they want to see the dollar sort of, come down a little bit.

我們為了要見到美元稍微下滑而暫時收手。

But, yes, you're right. You talked about the Euro-zone, this is the economy that's still pretty much on life support.

但是你說的沒錯。你提到了歐元區，但是這個經濟體現在仍十分脆弱。

You've got a central bank in Europe that's doing an enormous amount of bond-buying,

歐洲的中央銀行目前插手了很大一筆債券購買，

they want, and they need a weaker currency.

他們想要、也需要一個價值較低的貨幣。

And it's funnily enough when we are talking about, or the market was talking about

而有趣的是，我們和市場都在討論

potentially the dollar and Euro reaching parity earlier this year

今年稍早有可能會達到歐元兌美元平價，

that coincided with the peak in the European stock prices.

這和歐洲股價巔峰的現象一致。

Let's look at the next chart, which probably tells us that Mario Draghi, president of the European central bank,

我們來看看下一個圖表。歐洲央行總理 Mario Draghi

is going to have to extend quantitative easing.

He's going to have to do something because he wants to weaken its currency, and he wants to fire up the stock market

他勢必得為了讓貨幣貶值和炒作股市而有所作為，

這樣一來便會有更好的財富效應。

And this is not a pretty picture if you're an ECB official.

這對歐洲央行的高層來說並不十分賞心悅目。

This was once a great equity Bull run but it's been coming off for quite a while.

股票牛市曾經居高不下，但現在也早已好景不常而開始走下坡。

What's the likely direction depending on how the dollar goes against the Euro?

照美元和歐元的關係看來，未來的方向會是什麼呢？

Well, if you get a stronger dollar and a weaker Euro, there are exporters in Europe get higher foreign revenues.

如果美元升值、歐元貶值，歐洲的出口商會從外匯收入獲益更多。

And if you think back to the U.S. bull run in 2011, 2012,

回想一下2011 2012年的美國牛市，

When QE was being done by the Fed and the Fed was weakened and that was it.

Actually saw the dollar weakened quite a lot.

The Bulls in New York loved it because every time the companies produced their earnings,

紐約的牛市卻喜上眉梢，因為每當公司公佈營利所得，

they were getting great for them from the fact that they were getting stronger foreign revenues.

他們實際上透過外匯收入而獲益更多。

So this is what European investors and this is sort of the investment bookcase in part for why you want to earn European stocks

歐洲投資者是一個人選擇投資歐洲股市的主要原因，

so that's why the currency is so important.

So, the bond mark. Let's see how that's been playing.

好，我們現在來看看債券標誌。

The European bonds have pretty much been tracking what U.S. treasuries have been doing.

歐洲債券基本上跟隨著美國國債的曲線，

Yes, well treasuries got a nice boost yesterday.

The treasury market has long felt that the Fed's projections for interest rates and the economy generally has been far too rosy.

國債市場一直認為美聯儲對於利率和經濟的預期過於樂觀，

And yet again yesterday the bond market prevailed the Feds didn't raise rates.

但是話說回來，昨天債券市場揭露了美聯儲沒有提升兌換率。

And, as a result, you've had a nice rally last night in the U.S. treasury market,

而結果便是，昨晚的美國國債市場重新整合了一番。

and that's now spilled over here in the Eurozone and also for the UK.

And interesting thing about the UK is that they, along with the Feds, are really the only two major central banks

有趣的是，英國及美聯儲可以算是唯二的央行

in the position to actually raise rates in the next few months.

得以在接下來幾個月中有資格提高利率的。

So, we've seen a pronounced drop in yields and a rise in prices for UK gilts, and the same here for France and Germany.

我們可以在英國的金邊證券中看出顯著的獲利減少及價位提升，法國和德國亦是如此。

That's a little bit more of a concern in the Eurozone

given that the global environment is not too good here.

畢竟這區的全球環境並不甚理想。

And instead of owning stock in the Eurozone, you're more comfortable earning bonds,

相較於在歐元區擁有股票，債券其實更為有保障。

which is essentially, as you can see in Germany and France,

同樣的，從德國和法國的情況可以看出，

Well, the general environment is not great anywhere.

事實上，整個大環境在哪裡都不是很好。

And our final chart is about the Feds thinking on whether rates are gonna happen this year.

我們最後一張圖表是關於美聯儲在探討今年的兌換率。

The prospects are receding in general, aren't they?

整體來說，指數是稍微下降的，對不對？

Yes, they are. I mean the bond market now prices in less than a 50% chance the rate.

是的。債券市場目前的價值比兌換率的一半還少。

This is how the federal reserve members think what their expectations of rate movings is going to be.

這是美聯儲的會員對於兌換率指數變遷的預估。

Here, we see the first arrival of a negative rate for some time.

由此我們可以看到首次出現負兌換率。

Yes, so though, again, the Fed is a committee, and whilst you had one official yesterday saying he thinks rate should be negative,

美聯儲終究還是一個委員會，昨天才有個高層說他認為兌換率應該為負的，

you have another official Jeffrey Lacker who dissented and said the Feds should've raised rates.

今天便有另一名叫 Jeffrey Lacker 的高層說美聯儲當初應該提高兌換率的。

So you can see the polarization of the opinions on the Feds.

由此可以看出美聯儲會員意見的兩極化。

The general trend is, these dots have been coming down.

大致來說，這些點的趨勢逐漸下降，

By the end of 2016, they're expecting it to be a lot lower than where they were saying a year ago.

到了2016年年尾，兌換率預期會比一年前的指數更低許多。

So, in general, the Fed is slowly coming around to the bond markets' view of the world,

所以，美聯儲現在漸漸試圖以債券市場的角度審視整件事，

which is at rates can be very low. Even if they do finally raise rates,

而兌換率也因此降到低點。即使美聯儲要提升兌換率，

the increases in borrowing costs are gonna be very small.

Is there... (Does it) ever get to a point in the cycle where it just becomes too late to raise rates?

在這之中，有沒有可能達到一個時間點是提升兌換率已經於事無補了呢？

The bare case the U.S economy is very much one of where,

okay, you're looking at S&P 500 earnings,

你可能會參考標準普爾500指數的收益，

they're weakening, they actually went negative last quarter on the year basis,

這個指數目前正在衰退，事實上，他們上一季是呈現負指數的，

revenue growth is anemic for major U.S. companies.

美國重要公司的收益成長微乎其微。

That reflects the stronger dollar, which has hit their foreign earnings, or foreign revenues.

這反映了增值的美元嚴重影響到他們的外匯收入。

You've also got a situation now where banks in the U.S. is going to start calling in their earns

現在的情況是，美國的銀行陸陸續續地開始請求收回

for their oil and gas industry, and shale gas and oil exploration U.S. has been a huge huge driver economic activity last few years.

他們石油和天然氣工業的收入；而在過去幾年中，頁岩氣和石油探勘亦於美國經濟活動中扮演了重要角色。

But now with oil prices having fallen so much, which is part of the commodity story.

但是事實是，石油價錢下跌也是物價的影響之一。

You could make a case that you're not going to see as much CapEx in the U.S. economy, and that filters through.

美國經濟支出日漸減少，但是這也是能夠被理解的。

So, things aren't looking so good. And also, what was lost in all the focus on the Feds yesterday,

目前，前景堪慮。先前美聯儲失焦的部分，

the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics came out with a revision.

Hence for the 12th month till March of this year, they've knocked just over 200,000 jobs off payrolls.

過去12個月中，截至今年三月，他們已經剔除了二十萬份工作。

I thought payrolls are going gangbusters.

我還以為美國工資目前勢不可擋。

And again, if you're looking at the labor participation rate,

但是，值得參考的是勞動參與率，

unemployment rate is low, but the labor participation rate is also very very low.

目前失業率很低，但是勞動參與率也非常低。

So, you're not seeing any wage of pressure.

也因此沒有任何提高工資的要求。