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  • Welcome to FT Markets. "Sorry, not today, come back another time."

    歡迎來到金融時報市場 。「抱歉,今天不行,請下次再來。」

  • That was the message from Janet Yellen and her Federal Reserve colleagues.

    這是 Janet Yellen 及她於美國聯邦儲備署的同事帶給大家的訊息。

  • As the U.S. central bank decides to keep rates on hold at their September meeting,

    因為美國中央銀行在九月份的會議當中決定暫時維持兌換率。

  • as worries about the global economy persist.

    因為大眾仍然十分擔憂全球經濟。

  • So, what was the reaction in Europe?

    歐洲對於這件事的反應為何呢?

  • Well, the Euro was up, bond prices also went up, equities have gone down.

    歐元升值,債券價值亦升高了,產權卻貶值了。

  • So, what are the short-term and medium-term implications of the Fed's decision?

    美聯儲所做的決定將帶來怎麼樣的短期和中期影響呢?

  • With me to discuss this, is the FT Markets editor, Mike Mackenzie.

    今天很榮幸邀請到金融時報的編輯 Michael Mackenzie 一起討論這個話題。

  • Mike, let's start with the Euro, which has seen a slow down, which is moving towards 1.15,

    Mike,我們從歐元開始討論好了。歐元成長趨緩,目前已經朝1.15邁進,

  • which has been pretty weak as far as the dollars concern.

    美元相較之下似乎價值越來越低。

  • Stronger Euro, weaker dollar, that's been the story for the last few weeks.

    過去幾週以來,歐元不斷升值、美元貶值,

  • And looks like it's going to be continuing along that path.

    而看樣子未來也將持續如此。

  • Yes, as you can see from here, you've had a nice jump. Basically one figure change from below 1.14 to over 1.15 in the last 24 hours.

    是的。你從這邊可以看出,歐元突然急遽升值,數據也在過去24小時之內從1.14以下升到1.15以上。

  • And that's essentially disappointment trade, the Fed, by sort of not raising rates, has kind of tempered the dollar Bulls.

    美聯儲維持兌換率之時,亦影響了美元多頭,促使了貿易低潮,

  • As a result, the Euros picked up some steam.

    歐元反而從中獲利升值。

  • The implication of this, of course is quite profound for equity investors in Europe.

    這件事對於歐洲產權投資者的影響深遠。

  • Yes, so in terms of the trend that's... remember the days where we were talking about the Euro-dollar parity?

    還記得我們上次談到歐元兌美元平價嗎?

  • I mean, that's now to the point where by we have two central banks both wanting pretty weak currencies.

    現在的情況便是兩邊的中央銀行都爭相想要較低價值的貨幣。

  • Well, I'm not sure the Fed wants a weak currency. They've seen a tiny financial condition in the U.S. economy

    其實我不認為美聯儲想要的是低價值的貨幣。他們在美國經濟中發現了小小的危機,

  • because the dollar has been picking up steam,

    因為美元正逐漸發展,

  • and because the dollar has been strengthening, it's hit commodity prices hard.

    物價也隨之被影響。

  • And it has put a lot of pressure on emerging markets.

    許多發展中的市場也因此面臨不少壓力,

  • And if you look across the emerging market economies, they have a lot of dollar-denominated debt.

    因為許多發展中市場的經濟體背負著美元債。

  • So, the last thing you want when your currency is weakening

    最糟糕的情況便是當你的貨幣貶值,

  • is the dollar goes up and you're now having to pay back that debt in depreciating local currency terms.

    此時美元卻升值,而你必須用當地貶值貨幣的價錢來還美元的債。

  • So, the Fed has essentially said. We're worried about China, we're worried about the local economy,

    美聯儲已做過解釋。我們擔憂中國和當地的經濟前景,

  • we're holding fire, they want to see the dollar sort of, come down a little bit.

    我們為了要見到美元稍微下滑而暫時收手。

  • But, yes, you're right. You talked about the Euro-zone, this is the economy that's still pretty much on life support.

    但是你說的沒錯。你提到了歐元區,但是這個經濟體現在仍十分脆弱。

  • You've got a central bank in Europe that's doing an enormous amount of bond-buying,

    歐洲的中央銀行目前插手了很大一筆債券購買,

  • they want, and they need a weaker currency.

    他們想要、也需要一個價值較低的貨幣。

  • And it's funnily enough when we are talking about, or the market was talking about

    而有趣的是,我們和市場都在討論

  • potentially the dollar and Euro reaching parity earlier this year

    今年稍早有可能會達到歐元兌美元平價,

  • that coincided with the peak in the European stock prices.

    這和歐洲股價巔峰的現象一致。

  • And you're way away from the peak now.

    而現在我們早已遠離巔峰。

  • Let's look at the next chart, which probably tells us that Mario Draghi, president of the European central bank,

    我們來看看下一個圖表。歐洲央行總理 Mario Draghi

  • is going to have to extend quantitative easing.

    必須延續量化寬鬆政策。

  • He's going to have to do something because he wants to weaken its currency, and he wants to fire up the stock market

    他勢必得為了讓貨幣貶值和炒作股市而有所作為,

  • so you have a greater wealth effect.

    這樣一來便會有更好的財富效應。

  • And this is not a pretty picture if you're an ECB official.

    這對歐洲央行的高層來說並不十分賞心悅目。

  • This was once a great equity Bull run but it's been coming off for quite a while.

    股票牛市曾經居高不下,但現在也早已好景不常而開始走下坡。

  • What's the likely direction depending on how the dollar goes against the Euro?

    照美元和歐元的關係看來,未來的方向會是什麼呢?

  • Well, if you get a stronger dollar and a weaker Euro, there are exporters in Europe get higher foreign revenues.

    如果美元升值、歐元貶值,歐洲的出口商會從外匯收入獲益更多。

  • And if you think back to the U.S. bull run in 2011, 2012,

    回想一下2011 2012年的美國牛市,

  • When QE was being done by the Fed and the Fed was weakened and that was it.

    美聯儲實施了量化寬鬆政策,

  • Actually saw the dollar weakened quite a lot.

    美元因此而大大貶值。

  • The Bulls in New York loved it because every time the companies produced their earnings,

    紐約的牛市卻喜上眉梢,因為每當公司公佈營利所得,

  • they were getting great for them from the fact that they were getting stronger foreign revenues.

    他們實際上透過外匯收入而獲益更多。

  • So this is what European investors and this is sort of the investment bookcase in part for why you want to earn European stocks

    歐洲投資者是一個人選擇投資歐洲股市的主要原因,

  • so that's why the currency is so important.

    貨幣亦因此舉足輕重。

  • So, the bond mark. Let's see how that's been playing.

    好,我們現在來看看債券標誌。

  • The European bonds have pretty much been tracking what U.S. treasuries have been doing.

    歐洲債券基本上跟隨著美國國債的曲線,

  • Is that right?

    對不對?

  • Yes, well treasuries got a nice boost yesterday.

    是的,國債昨天發展不錯,

  • The treasury market has long felt that the Fed's projections for interest rates and the economy generally has been far too rosy.

    國債市場一直認為美聯儲對於利率和經濟的預期過於樂觀,

  • And yet again yesterday the bond market prevailed the Feds didn't raise rates.

    但是話說回來,昨天債券市場揭露了美聯儲沒有提升兌換率。

  • And, as a result, you've had a nice rally last night in the U.S. treasury market,

    而結果便是,昨晚的美國國債市場重新整合了一番。

  • and that's now spilled over here in the Eurozone and also for the UK.

    這影響到了歐元區及英國。

  • And interesting thing about the UK is that they, along with the Feds, are really the only two major central banks

    有趣的是,英國及美聯儲可以算是唯二的央行

  • in the position to actually raise rates in the next few months.

    得以在接下來幾個月中有資格提高利率的。

  • So, we've seen a pronounced drop in yields and a rise in prices for UK gilts, and the same here for France and Germany.

    我們可以在英國的金邊證券中看出顯著的獲利減少及價位提升,法國和德國亦是如此。

  • That's a little bit more of a concern in the Eurozone

    歐元區其實更令人堪慮,

  • given that the global environment is not too good here.

    畢竟這區的全球環境並不甚理想。

  • And instead of owning stock in the Eurozone, you're more comfortable earning bonds,

    相較於在歐元區擁有股票,債券其實更為有保障。

  • which is essentially, as you can see in Germany and France,

    同樣的,從德國和法國的情況可以看出,

  • don't really give you much for coupon.

    債券在此不容易折價。

  • Well, the general environment is not great anywhere.

    事實上,整個大環境在哪裡都不是很好。

  • And our final chart is about the Feds thinking on whether rates are gonna happen this year.

    我們最後一張圖表是關於美聯儲在探討今年的兌換率。

  • The prospects are receding in general, aren't they?

    整體來說,指數是稍微下降的,對不對?

  • Yes, they are. I mean the bond market now prices in less than a 50% chance the rate.

    是的。債券市場目前的價值比兌換率的一半還少。

  • This is how the federal reserve members think what their expectations of rate movings is going to be.

    這是美聯儲的會員對於兌換率指數變遷的預估。

  • Yes.

    是。

  • Here, we see the first arrival of a negative rate for some time.

    由此我們可以看到首次出現負兌換率。

  • Yes, so though, again, the Fed is a committee, and whilst you had one official yesterday saying he thinks rate should be negative,

    美聯儲終究還是一個委員會,昨天才有個高層說他認為兌換率應該為負的,

  • you have another official Jeffrey Lacker who dissented and said the Feds should've raised rates.

    今天便有另一名叫 Jeffrey Lacker 的高層說美聯儲當初應該提高兌換率的。

  • So you can see the polarization of the opinions on the Feds.

    由此可以看出美聯儲會員意見的兩極化。

  • The general trend is, these dots have been coming down.

    大致來說,這些點的趨勢逐漸下降,

  • By the end of 2016, they're expecting it to be a lot lower than where they were saying a year ago.

    到了2016年年尾,兌換率預期會比一年前的指數更低許多。

  • So, in general, the Fed is slowly coming around to the bond markets' view of the world,

    所以,美聯儲現在漸漸試圖以債券市場的角度審視整件事,

  • which is at rates can be very low. Even if they do finally raise rates,

    而兌換率也因此降到低點。即使美聯儲要提升兌換率,

  • the increases in borrowing costs are gonna be very small.

    借貸成本的提升也十分有限。

  • Even if they do finally raise rates.

    即使美聯儲要提升兌換率...

  • Is there... (Does it) ever get to a point in the cycle where it just becomes too late to raise rates?

    在這之中,有沒有可能達到一個時間點是提升兌換率已經於事無補了呢?

  • There is a risk there.

    這是有風險在的。

  • The bare case the U.S economy is very much one of where,

    美國經濟的最低限度是,

  • okay, you're looking at S&P 500 earnings,

    你可能會參考標準普爾500指數的收益,

  • they're weakening, they actually went negative last quarter on the year basis,

    這個指數目前正在衰退,事實上,他們上一季是呈現負指數的,

  • revenue growth is anemic for major U.S. companies.

    美國重要公司的收益成長微乎其微。

  • That reflects the stronger dollar, which has hit their foreign earnings, or foreign revenues.

    這反映了增值的美元嚴重影響到他們的外匯收入。

  • You've also got a situation now where banks in the U.S. is going to start calling in their earns

    現在的情況是,美國的銀行陸陸續續地開始請求收回

  • for their oil and gas industry, and shale gas and oil exploration U.S. has been a huge huge driver economic activity last few years.

    他們石油和天然氣工業的收入;而在過去幾年中,頁岩氣和石油探勘亦於美國經濟活動中扮演了重要角色。

  • But now with oil prices having fallen so much, which is part of the commodity story.

    但是事實是,石油價錢下跌也是物價的影響之一。

  • You could make a case that you're not going to see as much CapEx in the U.S. economy, and that filters through.

    美國經濟支出日漸減少,但是這也是能夠被理解的。

  • So, things aren't looking so good. And also, what was lost in all the focus on the Feds yesterday,

    目前,前景堪慮。先前美聯儲失焦的部分,

  • the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics came out with a revision.

    已由勞工統計局提出了修正。

  • Hence for the 12th month till March of this year, they've knocked just over 200,000 jobs off payrolls.

    過去12個月中,截至今年三月,他們已經剔除了二十萬份工作。

  • I thought payrolls are going gangbusters.

    我還以為美國工資目前勢不可擋。

  • And again, if you're looking at the labor participation rate,

    但是,值得參考的是勞動參與率,

  • unemployment rate is low, but the labor participation rate is also very very low.

    目前失業率很低,但是勞動參與率也非常低。

  • It has come off dramatically.

    這個數字直線下降,

  • So, you're not seeing any wage of pressure.

    也因此沒有任何提高工資的要求。

  • I mean, the key here now, the Fed has basically told us: "Don't worry about China."

    現在的關鍵便是,即使美聯儲已經呼籲:「不要擔心中國。」

  • If you're a bullish investor on U.S. equities,

    如果你是個被看好的美國產權投資者,

  • generally, one question you're asking yourself is,

    你真正需要問問自己的是,

  • "What does the Fed know that I don't?"

    「美聯儲知道些什麼我不知道的事嗎?」

  • Mike, thanks very much indeed.

    Mike, 非常感謝你。

  • So, there we have it, the Fed has kicked the can down the road.

    所以,事實便是,美聯儲一再地將這件事往後拖延,

  • But the question is, whether the road is going to start running out?

    但真正的問題是,他們能夠拖延到何時呢?

Welcome to FT Markets. "Sorry, not today, come back another time."

歡迎來到金融時報市場 。「抱歉,今天不行,請下次再來。」

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