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  • Gordon, you've been a China, sort of doomsayer for a long time.

    Gordon,你一直以來都是一個中國的末日預言者。

  • Is what we're seeing now the hard landing that you've called in the past?

    眼下中國的局勢,是否就是你曾經提到的硬著陸現象呢?

  • Is this it?

    是嗎?

  • Yeah, well this is certainly a hard landing, because China is not growing at the 7.0% that Beijing claims,

    這確實是一個硬著陸,因為中國既沒有按照北京當局宣稱的,以 7.0% 的經濟成長率成長,

  • it's not even growing at the 2.2% that they are privately talking about in China.

    甚至沒有以私底下議論的 2.2% 在成長。

  • It could very well be even lower than that, but if I'm wrong, and I could be

    中國目前的經濟成長率可能比那個數值還低,但如果我評估錯誤,而且有很高的機會我會出錯,

  • 'cause no one really knows where China is.

    因為沒有人確實知道中國目前的情況。

  • It'll be there in a couple of months, because what we're seeing is a severe deterioration in the economy.

    他們可能幾個月後就會達到新的低點,因為我們看到的是一個嚴重退化的經濟體。

  • You know, there's a devaluation, there is a plunge in the stock market but most important, there's the money coming out of China.

    中國目前正經歷貨幣貶值和股市大跌,但最重要的是,資金紛紛流出中國。

  • You know, there're various estimates somewhere between 520 to 800 billion dollars in the last five quarters,

    各家預測在過去五季以來,約有 5200 億到 8000 億之間的資金流出,

  • that's a lot of money, that's the Chinese people voting with their feet.

    那可是一大筆錢,這現象也反映了中國人民的不滿。

  • That's what basically they're saying is, this economy, it doesn't have a future.

    這就是他們說的,這是個沒有未來的經濟體。

  • We spoke to David Wu, head of global rates and currency research at Bank America of Merrill Lynch yesterday.

    我們昨天和美銀美林的外匯策略師 David 進行談話。

  • Talking about China's stock market and what's gonna keep it rising in the near term though. Take a listen.

    我們談到中國的股市,以及促成它近期成長的因素。我們來聽一下吧。

  • People not realizing, what now basically four five days away from the parade in Beijing, to celebrate the end of the second world war,

    人們並沒有意識到,四五天之後即將在北京舉行的二戰慶祝儀式,

  • presumably the reason why the Chinese started to intervene in the stock market directly,

    中國人之所以開始直接干預股市的原因,

  • is because they don't want the president to look bad when the foreign dignitary start to show up in Beijing.

    很可能是因為他們不想在外國政要蒞臨北京時,讓主席太難堪。

  • What do you think about that?

    對此你有什麼看法呢?

  • Absolutely, I mean, because you know, they did not intervene on Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, and we saw the stock market fall.

    這是當然的,我的意思是,他們並沒有在星期一、二或三介入股市,而這段期間的股市就下跌。

  • But lo and behold in the last hour on Thursday, it went up 5.3%.

    但注意星期四收盤前最後一刻,它上漲了 5.3%。

  • Yesterday, 4.8%, that's completely inexplicable, that this is government buying in the last hour of the afternoon session.

    而昨天則上漲了 4.8%,這真是令人費解,而這正是政府在午盤結束前一刻購入股票的表現。

  • One of the things that Woo said in the interview is that we could see a return to further UN weakness after the parade

    吳先生在訪談中提到的其中一件事情是,我們可以在抗戰宴會後,看見聯合國更大的缺失,

  • and that maybe the devaluation we saw was just the beginning, here's even talking about the government letting the currency go completely.

    更甚而,目前的貨幣貶值只是初期,甚至有傳聞指出政府打算讓貨幣自由浮動。

  • What's do you... What's your take on the government's currency policy at this moment?

    你對當前政府的貨幣政策有什麼看法呢?

  • Well, eventually they're gonna have to do that, because that's the way the economy is going,

    這個嘛,他們終究是要那麼做的,因為那是整個經濟的趨勢,

  • and the currency is at an unsupportable level.

    而且眼下貨幣正處於一個水深火熱的情況。

  • You know, they're spending if FT (Financial Times) says of about 10 billion dollars a day to support the value of the currency.

    金融時報指出,中國一天要花費 100 億元來維持貨幣的價值。

  • And that means in 21 weeks, you go through a trillion dollars of reserves,

    這代表在 21 周後,你就會用光一兆元的存底,

  • and that number could actually increase, because as people start to realize how bad things are in China,

    而那個金額還有可能增加,因為當人們開始意識到中國的情勢有多糟糕時,

  • you can see the pessimism build both inside and outside China,

    中國內外都充滿了悲觀的氛圍,

  • therefore you can see even more money coming out of the country.

    因此你會發現越來越多的資金開始流出。

  • We did see a, if you take a look at their FX (Foreign Exchange) reserves, a socgen had a note out this week,

    如果你仔細看中國的外匯存底,法國興業銀行在本周發佈了一篇文章,

  • talking about the extra firepower that China has that they don't actually need to support their currency.

    談到中國仍擁有相當龐大的資金,所以他們並不需要去拯救他們的貨幣。

  • Well that's not quite it, but yeah, there you go.

    這不是我要的圖表,但... 對,就是這個。

  • And basically they're saying that they had about 900 billion that they can play with, to support their currency and help with capital outflows.

    他們談到中國大約有 9000 億可以用以支撐貨幣並支援資金外流的情況。

  • Would you agree with that?

    你會同意這個說法嗎?

  • You know, who knows what they have, because we can't really trust what they say about their foreign exchange reserves.

    誰知道他們有什麼盤算呢?因為我們不能完全相信中國官方對於外匯存底的說法。

  • But obviously look, they say they've got 3.65 billion, at least through the end of last quarter.

    但很明顯地,最少在上一季結束前,他們宣稱他們還有 36.5 億元。

  • They probably have a lot less now, with their burn rate, and that burn rate, as I said, will probably increase.

    考量到他們的資金消耗率,現在的存底可能又更少了,況且那個比率仍有可能上調。

  • So, you know, this country which looks invulnerable now, could very will end up being the real basket case of next year.

    所以,這個現在乍看之下無堅不摧的國家,極有可能在明年跌落谷底。

  • Or maybe even the end of this year with the way things are going.

    考量到目前的走向,這件事甚至可能在今年底成真。

  • Because the economy doesn't have any support there.

    因為中國當前的經濟情況可說是孤立無援。

  • Deutsche Bank was out with a note this week, in which they used the term "quantitative tightening."

    德意志銀行本周也發表一篇文章,內文使用了「量化緊縮」這個詞彙。

  • And they basically made the argument, that China's reserves have grown

    而他們有一個論點是,在量化寬鬆期間,

  • roughly out of the same paces of the federal reserves assets during quantitative easing.

    中國的存底已經超越了聯邦儲備局的資產。

  • But now, they are coming down, as you can see on the chart it's the purple line, has started to decline

    但現在,一如圖表中的紫色線條,這個數字正在下降,

  • and so Deutsche Bank is saying that this is an issue for the entire world:

    因此,德意志銀行認為這是一個全球的議題:

  • China's reserves starting to head down.

    中國的外匯存底開始下跌。

  • Do you see global ramifications from this?

    在這兩篇文章中,你是否看見國際觀點的分歧呢?

  • Only because of the panic, but I actually think China is less important to the global economy than most people think.

    這純粹只是惶恐而已,但實際上,我認為中國對於全球經濟的影響,沒有大家想的那麼重要。

  • 'cause you know, everyone says it's an engine of global growth.

    大家都說中國是全球經濟成長的引擎。

  • Well, to be an engine, you gotta buy the goods and services of other countries to create growth elsewhere.

    但,想做一個引擎,你應該要從其他地區購買貨物與服務,進而在該地製造經濟成長。

  • But China through mercantilist policies is actually been taking growth from other places.

    但中國在重商主義的政策下,其實一直在強取豪奪其他國家的成長。

  • And you know the manufacturing that is done in China, well, that'll be done in Vietnam and India and elsewhere.

    此外,中國目前的製造業,已經可以由越南、印度等地完成。

  • So the global economy will adjust, but people will panic, because there is this perception that China is critical to everything.

    因此,全球的金融體系會隨之調整;但人們還是會驚慌,因為大家仍普遍認為中國對任何事情都有一定的影響力。

  • And I think that's wrong, but that's the way the world works these days.

    我認為這個觀念是錯誤的,但這就是現今世界運行的方式。

  • So, therefore, there will be problems when China has even more difficulties that are more evident.

    所以,隨著中國的困境日益明顯,問題會逐漸浮現。

  • But in terms of the actual stock market, do you think that actually has an effect on Chinese consumption?

    但在股市方面,你認為這會影響到中國的消費情況嗎?

  • I mean, they can still grow that, they're really invested more in real estate

    我的意思是,中國人還是可以持續消費。一些分析家指出,

  • than they are with their assets which are under 10% according to some analysts?

    中國人對於房地產的投資,已經遠超過其他只占 10% 得資產投資

  • Yeah, well it has a marginal effect on consumption, you know, we've seen the reporting about people not buying luxury cars

    的確,消費情況的確存在邊際效應,已經有消息指出,因為股市下跌,

  • and even not buying mid-sized cars, because of the falls in the stock market.

    人們不再購買名車甚至中型車了。

  • People have put their money in there, they had hoped that it would ride,

    人們把錢投入股市,就是希望可以生財,

  • they take it out when they get something they want to buy, that's not happening right now.

    每當他們有所欲求的時候,就會把錢從股市裡取出來;但這個情況已然不再。

  • But also you know, consumption really hasn't been as vibrant as the retail numbers suggest.

    同時,消費情況也不如零售價格所呈現的那樣活躍。

  • I think that it's been growing, but it's not been growing at the rate that everybody thinks.

    我想消費仍在成長,但並不是以我們所想的速率發展。

  • So it hasn't really been the pole for the rest of the world.

    所以中國其實一直都不是世界的標竿。

  • We see that in the really bad import numbers for instance.

    我們從它表現不良的入口額就可以略知一二了。

  • Alright, so you already have a very gloomy assessment of China.

    好的,所以你對中國的前景已經有了相當慘淡的評估。

  • A realistic assessment of China.

    是一個相當實際的評估。

  • Fair enough, but what's your nightmare scenario for China that keeps you up at night?

    好的,那你認為最糟狀況,中國的夢魘會是什麼呢?

  • Well, basically that they have a 1930 style crash, see, leaders there cannot affect the downward trend in the economy.

    這個嘛,他們目前正經歷 1930 年代經濟大蕭條式的衰退,中國的領導人對於經濟崩盤無能為力。

  • They can slow it, and they have been slowing it for a number of years, but everything, nothing's working.

    他們可以延緩這個現象,而且他們的確已經努力了幾年,但毫無建樹。

  • Monetarism stimulus is not working. Fiscal stimulus would be dangerous, cause it creates debt.

    貨幣刺激無效,財政刺激的風險過高,因為它會製造債務。

  • They can't reform because of problems in the political system. The stock market boom was a bust and now they're devaluing their currency.

    因為政治制度存在過多問題,這些領導者們也無從改革。股市的繁榮只是假象,而他們現在竟然在使自己的貨幣貶值。

  • This is a country where the leaders really cannot affect the economy for the better.

    這是一個領導者無從改善經濟情況的國家。

Gordon, you've been a China, sort of doomsayer for a long time.

Gordon,你一直以來都是一個中國的末日預言者。

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中國。是否正處於硬著陸階段? (China: Is it in the Midst of a Hard Landing?)

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    Candy 發佈於 2021 年 01 月 14 日
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