Name: 思考，快與慢》丹尼爾-卡內曼｜動畫書評論 (THINKING, FAST AND SLOW BY DANIEL KAHNEMAN | ANIMATED BOOK REVIEW)
Uploaded: 2021-01-14T05:34:17.000Z
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祈使句型

Imagine you're one of the first human beings, and you're walking with your kid and you see

a lion. And you don't know what a lion is,

to 不定詞

so you take your kid over to play with him and the lion eats your kid.

So you go home and you're sad, but it's okay, you get your wife pregnant,

and in five years, you're walking again with your new kid

and you see a lion far away. This time you hide with your kid,

and the lion eventually leaves and you both survive.

So you come out, you start walking with your kid again

and a bird flys over and all of a sudden your kid drops dead.

And you go home sad again, you get your wife pregnant again,

and you make a promise to yourself. You're going to make sure

that you hide your new kid from lions, and that you'll hide him if you see a bird

So there are two ways that we think. Both of the decisions that you made

are based on the fast, automatic thought process, which Kahneman calls System 1.

System 1 is where we find how irrational and illogical or just simply how stupid we

really are so it can lead us to not value System 1

If you had used your slow, more rational and logical thinking,

you would have found that you were right about the lion,

but the bird had nothing to do with your kid's death.

But, we should value System 1, because it has huge benefits.

It's the reason why we've survived. Yes, maybe at the cost of some really ridiculous

assumptions, like your kid dying every time a bird flys

over, but if we had rationally thought about

what a loud noise might mean and analyze it carefully

instead of being scared and running away from it immediately,

So big idea 1 is: Understanding System 1 and System 2.

There are huge benefits to both systems, the problem however really arises when we

use System 1 instead of System 2, when System 2 would be the appropriate system

to use. And this leads us to all kinds of biases and

fallacies that are not optimal. It's not optimal to think that if a bird flys

So if I were to ask you these two questions, what would your answer be?

1. Is the height of the tallest redwood more or less than 1,200 feet?

2. What is your best guess about the height of the tallest redwood?

So one group was asked these questions, And another group was asked the exact same

questions except instead of 1,200 feet in the first

question, this time they were asked whether the height

of the tree was more or less than only 180 feet.

So what do you think the answers looked like? The first group's mean guess was 844 feet.

The second group's mean guess was only 282 feet.

This is what is known as anchoring. So ask yourself and throughout this video,

how can knowing this be useful to you. Dan Ariely, one of my favorite economists,

talks about how we have no idea about most things

and what they should cost. If you're not an expert just like we aren't

in most things, you don't know how tall a redwood tree should

be, I don't know what a microwave should cost

when I go buy it... Should it be $99, $199?

I have no idea... So we use different ways to approximate what

it should be, and anchoring is one of them.

So again how is this useful to you personally? If you're the buyer do you want to look at

If you're selling something, how do you want to set up your MSRP

So one of the things that I really enjoy about my life

is the peace of mind I have while doing things. When I visit somewhere I'm not worried about

a terrorist attack, and when I fly there I'm not worried about

the plane crashing. And that peace of mind largely comes from

the fact that I'm not really a big consumer of mainstream

But I meet people all the time who are really constantly worried.

"Have you seen how terrorism is taking over the world?

What are we headed towards? Have you seen how planes are just crashing

it's not like the chances of those two things have risen in some dramatic proportion.

They're highly unlikely, and I mean a probability very close to zero

And this is what is known as the science of availability.

Even an event that has an almost non-existent probability of happening to you

can be assigned a reasonable or even a high probability by you

So again ask yourself, how can you use this concept to make your

life better? Is it better to enjoy your life

and realize that the world is actually not as bad as commonly portrayed,

or watch the news every day where you'll be shown

constant death and destruction because that's what sells?

Big idea 3 is: Understanding the Science of Availability

Now let's say I offer you to play a game with me.

We're going to flip a coin, and if you win, you win a $1000.

And if you lose, you lose a $1000. Do you want to play that game?

If you're like most people, that is a game that you do not want to play.

What if we change the rules a little bit. If you win, you win $1100.

And if you lose, you lose only a $1000. From an expected value point of view,

that is a good game to play. But if I asked you to play that game right

now, and you knew that there was a 50% chance of

losing your $1000, if you're like most people you still wouldn't

play even though there's also a 50% chance of winning

This is called Loss Aversion. Most people are very loss averse.

In fact, you have to offer somewhere about $2000

Now this might be intersting, but again ask yourself,

how can you use understanding this in your life?

You know you're going to be more convincing explaining to someone what they are risking

losing, instead of what they could possibly gain.

So maybe you want to convince someone that being an alcoholic is bad...

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思考，快與慢》丹尼爾-卡內曼｜動畫書評論 (THINKING, FAST AND SLOW BY DANIEL KAHNEMAN | ANIMATED BOOK REVIEW)

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