think "Great Depression." Here's how the usual narrative goes:

你大概會想到「大蕭條」。通常故事是這麼說的

The stock market crashes in October of 1929. Hoover, a Republican, refuses to intervene.

股市在1929年的10月崩盤。胡佛，身為一個共和黨人，拒絕干涉

Instead, he lets the free market deal with the problem

反之，他讓自由市場來解決問題

and the economic downturn morphs into a catastrophic decline.

結果經濟一蹶不振

Well, the Stock Market did crash in 1929 and the economic downturn that followed did lead

好吧，股市確實是在1929年時垮了，隨之而來的經濟低迷時期

into the Great Depression, but it wasn't because Hoover was a small government man like his

也造成了大蕭條，但這不是因為胡佛如同前任總統

predecessor, Calvin Coolidge. It was just the opposite. My research shows that it was

卡爾文．柯立芝那樣的保守。正好相反。我的研究顯示

Hoover's incessant meddling -- not the mistaken view that he did nothing -- that provoked the Great Depression.

因為胡佛不斷地介入經濟－錯誤的觀點以為他甚麼都沒有做－而造成了大蕭條

Hoover, a good man with magnanimous instincts, was a successful mining engineer before he

胡佛，一個天性雅量的好人，在還未從政之前是個成功的採礦工程師

got into government. He believed that almost anything could be engineered, and he brought

他相信多數的事物都可被開採，他也將

that philosophy to the economic crisis of 1929. As a result, he was the wrong man for

此哲理帶入1929年的經濟危機。結果，作為總統一職

the job at exactly the wrong time. For starters, Hoover distrusted the free market.

並沒有天時地利人和。對於創業者，胡佛對自由市場有疑慮

He knew that unfettered competition forces companies to reduce prices;

他知道自由競爭會迫使行業壓低產品價格

but, he believed, lower prices lead to lower wages.

但是，他也知道，產品的低價造成低廉的工資

In November of 1929, shortly after the stock market swoon, Hoover called a meeting with

1929年的11月，就在股市低迷不久後，胡佛召集了會議

the CEOs of major American industry. Henry Ford of Ford Motor, Alfred Sloan of GM,

與重要的美國工業執行長商討對策。福特汽車的亨利．福特、美國通用汽車公司的艾福列．史隆

and Pierre Dupont of Dupont Chemicals led the group that met with Hoover.

與杜邦化學公司的皮埃爾．杜邦共同來會晤胡佛

The President set down a very clear and unprecedented directive:

總統立下了非常清楚且史無前例的指令

1) Despite the weakening economy, keep wage rates at current levels.

１）儘管衰弱的經濟情勢，還是要保持現在的工資

2) Minimize layoffs. If you must reduce manpower,

２）將裁員數減到最低。如果人力縮減是必要的話

do it through work sharing - that is, have two workers work half a day each or every other day.

利用工作分擔－也就是，讓兩個員工各做半天班或輪班

In return for maintaining wage rates and sharing jobs, Hoover promised the CEO's that he would

為了報答公司維持工資與分擔工作，胡佛對執行長做保證

convince workers to neither strike nor demand additional pay or benefits. He kept his promise.

他將會說服勞工不罷工也不要求額外工資或分紅。胡佛做到了

Labor agreed not to strike. Industry agreed not to cut wages.

勞工同意不罷工，老闆同意不減薪

In fact, Henry Ford raised wages as a gesture of solidarity.

事實上，亨利．福特還利用加薪來作為團結的舉動

The engineer, it seemed, had engineered the perfect solution.

看來，這個採礦工程師，做了完美開採

Only it didn't work.

不料這方法不起作用

As 1929 moved into 1930 and 1931, prices for industrial goods declined. One reason was

當1929年來到了1930年及1931年，工業產品價格下降，原因是

the economy-wide deflation brought on by the Federal Reserve's tight money policy.

（美國）聯邦儲備系統的貨幣緊縮政策，導致整個經濟體通貨膨脹

People simply didn't have money to buy goods or invest in companies. But another reason --

人們簡直是沒有錢可以購買日用品或是投資。但是還有另一個

and a big one -- was the result of something else Hoover did - his signing of the Smoot-Hawley

更大的原因－胡佛造成的結果－他在1930年簽署了

Tariff Act of 1930. That act, which raised tariffs on imports to the highest levels in 100 years,

斯穆特-霍利關稅法案。此法案造成了百年來各項進口關稅達到最高

led America's trading partners to retaliate by placing tariffs on American goods.

導致美國貿易夥伴利用增加美國貨物的關稅來報復

With American exports cut in half, the prices of American industrial goods declined sharply.

隨著美國貨物出口減半，美國工業產品價格嚴重下滑

As the Depression deepened, industry asked Hoover for permission to cut wages,

大蕭條加深劇烈，工業要求胡佛同意降低工資

but Hoover refused. "If we cut wages, there will be hell to pay with unions," he said.

但胡佛拒絕了，他說：「如果我們降低工資，工會將付出慘痛代價。」

By the end of 1931, with the economy in shambles, industry broke their deal by cutting wages

到了1931年底，經濟腳步的蹣跚，讓工業決定打破承諾，降低工資

and increasing layoffs. But it was too late to stop the free fall. Business failure built

以及增加裁員人數。但這一切是覆水難收。公司一間間債台高築

on business failure. Unemployment soared from 3.2% in 1929 to 23.6% in 1932.

失業率在1929年至1932年，從3.2%攀升至23.6%

Hoover countered by vastly increasing government spending, offering a nine-point plan that included major

胡佛利用巨大的政府支出做反擊，提出一個九點計劃，其中包含了

public works projects like the Hoover Dam and the Los Angeles Aqueduct. He raised taxes

主要的公共工程胡佛水壩以及洛杉磯引水渠。胡佛將

on the top income bracket from 25% to 63%. He did everything he could think of to engineer

高收入等級的稅收從25%提高至63%。他做了一切可開採的措施

the economy back to health except the one thing that might have worked --

想讓經濟起死回生，除了一件本來可能有用的事－

let the free market heal itself.

讓自由市場自行復原

What should have been a couple of hard years turned into a decade long disaster.

本來苦日子只需過個幾年卻轉變成長達十年的苦難歲月

And what of the commonly-held view that Hoover and Franklin Roosevelt's economic policies

是甚麼普遍持有的觀點覺得胡佛及富蘭克林．羅斯福的經濟政策

were so different? You can now see that view is also inaccurate. Both Hoover and FDR believed

有所不同？你現在也可知道這觀點並不正確。胡佛及富蘭克林．羅斯福都相信

in forceful government intervention into the economy.

經濟需要政府強而有力的干預

I'm Lee Ohanian, Professor of Economics at UCLA, for Prager University.

我是里．和漢尼亞，加州大學洛杉磯分校的經濟學教授，這個影片是給Prager University（譯註：Prager University是一個免費的線上學習網站）