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I'm going to talk a little bit about strategy
我想談一下策略
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and its relationship with technology.
以及它和科技的關聯
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We tend to think of business strategy
我們普遍認為商業策略
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as being a rather abstract body
只是經濟思維中的
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of essentially economic thought,
一個抽象的概念
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perhaps rather timeless.
可能是歷久彌新的
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I'm going to argue that, in fact,
我想要反駁這個論點
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business strategy has always been premised
實際上商業策略總是以
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on assumptions about technology,
科技的假設為前提
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that those assumptions are changing,
而那些假設時常變動
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and, in fact, changing quite dramatically,
事實上是相當劇烈地變動
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and that therefore what that will drive us to
而這些假設將我們導向一個
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is a different concept of what we mean
和原來的商業策略
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by business strategy.
不同的方向
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Let me start, if I may,
請容許我
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with a little bit of history.
以一小段歷史開始說明
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The idea of strategy in business
在商業上,策略這個概念
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owes its origins to two intellectual giants:
源自於兩位絕頂的巨擘
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Bruce Henderson, the founder of BCG,
波士頓諮詢公司的創辦人布魯斯.亨德森
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and Michael Porter, professor at the Harvard Business School.
以及哈佛商學院的教授麥可·波特
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Henderson's central idea was what you might call
亨德森的中心理論,
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the Napoleonic idea of concentrating mass
你可以稱之為大規模專注對付弱勢,
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against weakness, of overwhelming the enemy.
並壓制了敵人的拿破崙戰略
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What Henderson recognized was that,
亨德森所認為的是
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in the business world,
在商業領域
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there are many phenomena which are characterized
有許多被經濟學者
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by what economists would call increasing returns --
視為報酬遞增的現象,
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scale, experience.
如規模或經驗
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The more you do of something,
你付出越多
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disproportionately the better you get.
你就會得到越好的報酬
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And therefore he found a logic for investing
因此,他發現一個邏輯
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in such kinds of overwhelming mass
來投資這樣壓倒性的數量
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in order to achieve competitive advantage.
以達成競爭上的優勢
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And that was the first introduction
而那是第一次有人
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of essentially a military concept of strategy
將軍事上的戰略
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into the business world.
應用到商場
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Porter agreed with that premise,
波特同意這樣的假設
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but he qualified it.
並且將其合格化
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He pointed out, correctly, that that's all very well,
他提出,正確地說,該假設很好
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but businesses actually have multiple steps to them.
但是商業應用上還有更多的步驟
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They have different components,
他們有不同的組成要素
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and each of those components might be driven
而每一項要素
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by a different kind of strategy.
可能由不同的策略所引導
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A company or a business might actually be advantaged
一家公司可能在某些活動上佔優勢
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in some activities but disadvantaged in others.
但在其他活動卻是弱勢
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He formed the concept of the value chain,
他提出價值鏈這個概念
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essentially the sequence of steps with which
指出一連串的步驟
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a, shall we say, raw material, becomes a component,
我們可以舉例,從一個原材料變成零組件
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becomes assembled into a finished product,
裝配成最終產品
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and then is distributed, for example,
直到配送
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and he argued that advantage accrued
波特主張每個零組件
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to each of those components,
所產生的利益
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and that the advantage of the whole
和完整產品的利益
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was in some sense the sum or the average
可以是總和
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of that of its parts.
或是所有料件的平均
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And this idea of the value chain was predicated
而這個價值鏈的想法
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on the recognition that
被認為是承認了
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what holds a business together is transaction costs,
構成商業的是交易成本
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that in essence you need to coordinate,
在本質上,你必須去協調
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organizations are more efficient at coordination
通常來說,
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than markets, very often,
組織比市場更能有效地調整
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and therefore the nature and role and boundaries
因而這種合作的本質、角色和分界
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of the cooperation are defined by transaction costs.
正是被交易成本所定義
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It was on those two ideas,
這兩種想法
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Henderson's idea of increasing returns
亨德森對報酬遞增
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to scale and experience,
的規模和經驗
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and Porter's idea of the value chain,
以及波特的價值鏈的想法
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encompassing heterogenous elements,
包含異質的要素
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that the whole edifice of business strategy
其後豎立起
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was subsequently erected.
整個商業策略的體系
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Now what I'm going to argue is
現在,我所主張的是
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that those premises are, in fact, being invalidated.
事實上,這些假設前提,是不成立的
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First of all, let's think about transaction costs.
首先,讓我們思考一下交易成本
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There are really two components to transaction costs.
交易成本含有兩種要素
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One is about processing information, and the other is about communication.
其一是資訊處理,另一種是溝通
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These are the economics of processing and communicating
以及溝通的經濟圖形
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as they have evolved over a long period of time.
這是發展已久的資訊處理
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As we all know from so many contexts,
如同我們從許多文本所知
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they have been radically transformed
自從波特和亨德森首次將他們的理論
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since the days when Porter and Henderson
進行系統性的整理
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first formulated their theories.
資訊處理和溝通已被完全地轉變
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In particular, since the mid-'90s,
尤其是,在90年代中期
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communications costs have actually been falling
溝通成本已經大幅下降
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even faster than transaction costs,
降低的速度甚至快於交易成本
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which is why communication, the Internet,
那也就是為什麼網路溝通
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has exploded in such a dramatic fashion.
爆發而大盛其道
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Now, those falling transaction costs
現在,那些降低的交易成本
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have profound consequences,
有了意義深遠的影響
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because if transaction costs are the glue
假如交易成本是將價值鏈串聯的要件
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that hold value chains together, and they are falling,
當交易成本下降
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there is less to economize on.
可節省空間就越少
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There is less need for vertically integrated organization,
組織做垂直整合的必要性也越小
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and value chains at least can break up.
而價值鏈能夠打破
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They needn't necessarily, but they can.
不必要,但是是做得到的
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In particular, it then becomes possible for
尤其在商業上
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a competitor in one business
一個競爭者可能
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to use their position in one step of the value chain
利用他們在價值鏈上的位置
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in order to penetrate or attack
為了滲透或是攻擊競爭對手
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or disintermediate the competitor in another.
或略過其通路
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That is not just an abstract proposition.
這不只是一個理論上的主張
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There are many very specific stories
而是有許多確切的故事
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of how that actually happened.
真實地發生
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A poster child example was the encyclopedia business.
如一個典型代表,
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The encyclopedia business
百科全書原有的經銷知識
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in the days of leatherbound books
在過去裝訂書籍的年代
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was basically a distribution business.
那基本上是一種經銷業
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Most of the cost was the commission to the salesmen.
大部分的成本是銷售員的佣金
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The CD-ROM and then the Internet came along,
CD-ROM和網路來臨之後
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new technologies made the distribution of knowledge
新的科技
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many orders of magnitude cheaper,
大幅地削弱
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and the encyclopedia industry collapsed.
百科全書產業因而瓦解
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It's now, of course, a very familiar story.
當然,這是一個熟知的故事
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This, in fact, more generally was the story
事實上,在網路經濟的第一個世代
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of the first generation of the Internet economy.
這樣的故事更加普遍
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It was about falling transaction costs
降低的交易成本
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breaking up value chains
打破了價值鏈
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and therefore allowing disintermediation,
因此造成「去中介化」
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or what we call deconstruction.
或是我們所稱通路的「解構」
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One of the questions I was occasionally asked was,
其中一個我偶爾會問的問題是
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well, what's going to replace the encyclopedia
當大英 (百科全書) 的商業模式不再有效
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when Britannica no longer has a business model?
什麼將取代百科全書?
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And it was a while before the answer became manifest.
這個答案花了點時間才變得明顯
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Now, of course, we know what it is: it's the Wikipedia.
現在,當然我們知道是 - 維基百科
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Now what's special about the Wikipedia is not its distribution.
維基百科特別的不是它的配銷
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What's special about the Wikipedia is the way it's produced.
而是它是如何產生的
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The Wikipedia, of course, is an encyclopedia
當然,維基百科是由
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created by its users.
它的使用者所建立的
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And this, in fact, defines what you might call
事實上,這定義了你可能稱之為
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the second decade of the Internet economy,
網路經濟的第二個十年
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the decade in which the Internet as a noun
在這個十年,「網路」從一個名詞
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became the Internet as a verb.
變成一個動詞
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It became a set of conversations,
它變成一組對話
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the era in which user-generated content and social networks
在這個時代,使用者生成內容和社群網路
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became the dominant phenomenon.
變成主流現象
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Now what that really meant
他們所真正代表的是
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in terms of the Porter-Henderson framework
就波特和亨德森的架構來說
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was the collapse of certain kinds of economies of scale.
代表著某種規模經濟的瓦解
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It turned out that tens of thousands
它轉變成數以千計自主的個人
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of autonomous individuals writing an encyclopedia
來撰寫百科全書
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could do just as good a job,
就能將這份工作做好
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and certainly a much cheaper job,
而且比在一個階級組織結構內的專家們
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than professionals in a hierarchical organization.
更便宜的方式
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So basically what was happening was that one layer
所以基本上所發生的是
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of this value chain was becoming fragmented,
價值鏈的一層變得破碎
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as individuals could take over
也就是個人能夠取代
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where organizations were no longer needed.
組織
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But there's another question that obviously this graph poses,
但從這張圖上可以明顯地看出這裡有一個問題
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which is, okay, we've gone through two decades --
我們已經渡過兩個十年
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does anything distinguish the third?
但有任何方式可以區別第三個十年嗎?
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And what I'm going to argue is that indeed
而我將主張的是
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something does distinguish the third,
確實,某些事情區別了它
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and it maps exactly on to the kind of
而且和我們所談論的
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Porter-Henderson logic that we've been talking about.
波特和亨德森的邏輯不謀而合
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And that is, about data.
而那就是,資料
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If we go back to around 2000,
如果我們回到2000年
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a lot of people were talking about the information revolution,
很多人當時正在談論資訊革命
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and it was indeed true that the world's stock of data
而確實整個世界的資料量正在成長
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was growing, indeed growing quite fast.
而且是相當快速地成長
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but it was still at that point overwhelmingly analog.
但在當時仍然是類比資料為主
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We go forward to 2007,
當我們走到2007年
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not only had the world's stock of data exploded,
不只是世界的資料量大增
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but there'd been this massive substitution
而且類比資料大規模地
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of digital for analog.
被數位資料所取代
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And more important even than that,
更重要的是
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if you look more carefully at this graph,
如果你更仔細地看這張圖
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what you will observe is that about a half
你會發現
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of that digital data
將近一半的數位資料
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is information that has an I.P. address.
屬於可對應到I.P.位址的資訊
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It's on a server or it's on a P.C.
儲存在伺服器或是個人電腦上
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But having an I.P. address means that it
然而,可對應到I.P.位址代表
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can be connected to any other data
這個資料也能夠被連結到
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that has an I.P. address.
另一個擁有I.P.位址的資料
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It means it becomes possible
這代表著
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to put together half of the world's knowledge
未來將可能結合世界一半的知識
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in order to see patterns,
以歸納出模式
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an entirely new thing.
以及新的事物
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If we run the numbers forward to today,
如果我們把時間軸移動到今天
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it probably looks something like this.
那麼圖形看起來會像這樣
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We're not really sure.
但我們並不完全確定
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If we run the numbers forward to 2020,
如果我們把時間軸移動到2020年
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we of course have an exact number, courtesy of IDC.
承蒙IDC的資料,我們會得到一個確切的數字
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It's curious that the future is so much more predictable than the present.
很不可思議地,未來的情況比現在更容易預測
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And what it implies is a hundredfold multiplication
而這張圖意味著
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in the stock of information that is connected
透過I.P.位址的串連
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via an I.P. address.
資訊的數量將以百倍增加
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Now, if the number of connections that we can make
現在,如果這些連結的數量
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is proportional to the number of pairs of data points,
和單一資料點成正比
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a hundredfold multiplication in the quantity of data
那麼增加百倍的資料量
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is a ten-thousandfold multiplication
代表我們在該資料可以看到
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in the number of patterns
模式將以
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that we can see in that data,
萬倍的方式增加
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this just in the last 10 or 11 years.
而這僅發生在過去10或11年間
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This, I would submit, is a sea change,
我認為這是一個巨變
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a profound change in the economics
一項經濟上全然的改變
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of the world that we live in.
在我們生活的世界中
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The first human genome,
人類第一對基因組
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that of James Watson,
詹姆斯·沃森
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was mapped as the culmination of the Human Genome Project in the year 2000,
在2000年人類基因組計劃全盛期被成功配對
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and it took about 200 million dollars
而這花費了2億美元
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and about 10 years of work to map
以及將近10年的時間
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just one person's genomic makeup.
而這只是一個人的基因組
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Since then, the costs of mapping the genome have come down.
自此之後,配對基因組的成本已經下跌
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In fact, they've come down in recent years
事實上,近幾年的成本
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very dramatically indeed,
劇烈地下跌
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to the point where the cost is now below 1,000 dollars,
成本至今已經低於1000美元
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and it's confidently predicted that by the year 2015
而且預估確信在2015年之前
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it will be below 100 dollars --
將會低於100美元
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a five or six order of magnitude drop
一個五或六數量級的下跌
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in the cost of genomic mapping
在基因組配對的成本上
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in just a 15-year period,
只花了15年的時間
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an extraordinary phenomenon.
這是個相當驚人的現象
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Now, in the days when mapping a genome
在過去配對一組基因組需花費百萬
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cost millions, or even tens of thousands,
或甚至是上億元
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it was basically a research enterprise.
它基本上是一種研究機構
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Scientists would gather some representative people,
科學家集結一些代表性人物
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and they would see patterns, and they would try
他們發現模式
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and make generalizations about human nature and disease
嘗試歸結人類身體本質和疾病
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from the abstract patterns they find
從抽象的模式中,
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from these particular selected individuals.
或從篩選出來的個體中
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But when the genome can be mapped for 100 bucks,
但是當基因組能靠100美元
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99 dollars while you wait,
或是99美元就能進行配對
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then what happens is, it becomes retail.
那麼將發生的是,它變成零售業
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It becomes above all clinical.
它是超乎臨床經驗的
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You go the doctor with a cold,
當你因為感冒而去看醫生
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and if he or she hasn't done it already,
在他還沒做任何診斷之前
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the first thing they do is map your genome,
第一件事就是配對你的基因組
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at which point what they're now doing
相較於現在的醫生所做
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is not starting from some abstract knowledge of genomic medicine
新的療程並非從抽象的基因醫學知識
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and trying to work out how it applies to you,
在你身上嘗試是否有效
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but they're starting from your particular genome.
而是從你自身特殊的基因組開始診斷
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Now think of the power of that.
現在讓我們想想這個力量
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Think of where that takes us
想想它將帶我們往哪個方向
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when we can combine genomic data
當我們可以結合基因組資料、
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with clinical data
臨床資料、
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with data about drug interactions
藥物反應的相關資料
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with the kind of ambient data that devices
以及透過手機或醫療晶片
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like our phone and medical sensors
等設備取得的資料
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will increasingly be collecting.
將被大量地蒐集
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Think what happens when we collect all of that data
想想看如果我們蒐集了這些資料
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and we can put it together
將他們結合在一起
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in order to find patterns we wouldn't see before.
來找到我們過去從未見過的模式
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This, I would suggest, perhaps it will take a while,
或許還需要一些時間,但這就是我所認為的
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but this will drive a revolution in medicine.
醫學上的革命
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Fabulous, lots of people talk about this.
很棒對吧!很多人都在談論這個
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But there's one thing that doesn't get much attention.
但有件事不太引人注意
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How is that model of colossal sharing
這些資料庫彼此之間
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across all of those kinds of databases
大量地分享
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compatible with the business models
這樣的模式
-
of institutions and organizations and corporations
將如何和現在的組織
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that are involved in this business today?
或公司內的商業模式相容呢?
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If your business is based on proprietary data,
如果你的生意是基於私有的資料
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if your competitive advantage is defined by your data,
如果你的競爭優勢是由你的資料所定義