I'm now going to take a slight tangent and cover a topic

我'現在要略微岔開話題，說說一個話題。

that, I think, this is probably the single most

我認為，這可能是最重要的一點。

important video that really anyone can watch.

重要的視頻，真的任何人都可以看。

I go to all of these parties where I go see family.

我參加所有這些聚會，我去看看家人。

And my wife and I right now, we live in Northern

而我和我的妻子現在，我們住在北部的。

California.

加州。

And we're renting.

而且我們是租的。

And I like to point out, by choice.

而我喜歡指出，選擇。

And I have family members, why don't you buy?

而且我有家人，你為什麼不買？

You're at that stage in life, that's a major

你在人生的那個階段，那是一個重大的

milestone, all of this.

里程碑，這一切。

There's a lot of pressure to buy.

有'的購買壓力。

And when I tell friends, I tell them I'm

當我告訴朋友們的時候，我告訴他們，我...

not going to buy.

不打算買。

Because I think I'm pretty convinced, almost 100%

因為我想我很相信，幾乎是100%。

convinced, that housing prices are going to revert back.

確信，房價會回調。

And I'm going to do a bunch of presentations to

而我要做一堆的演講，以。

justify why they will.

說明為什麼他們會。

But then my friends, they'll just throw out the statement

但是，我的朋友們，他們就會把這句話扔出去。

that I hear from them, that you hear from real estate

我從他們那裡聽到的，你從房地產那裡聽到的。

agents, because obviously they want you to buy.

中介，因為很明顯他們想讓你買。

Well, isn't buying always better than renting?

那麼，買是不是總比租好呢？

And I think that kind of common wisdom comes out of the

而我認為這種常識性的智慧是來自於

notion of, when you have a mortgage or when you borrow

的概念，當你有抵押貸款或當你借到

money to live in a house, every month that money that

住房子的錢，每個月那筆錢那

you give to the bank is kind of going into savings.

你給銀行的錢，算是進入了儲蓄。

That's the perception.

這是'的看法。

While when you rent, that money's just

而當你租房時，這筆錢只是

disappearing into a vacuum.

消失在真空中。

In this video I'm going to work through that assumption,

在這段視頻中，我'要通過這個假設。

and see if that actually is the case.

並看看是否真的是這樣。

So let's say I have a choice.

所以我們'說我有一個選擇。

Let's say there are two houses.

比如說有兩套房子。

This is house number one.

這是一號院。

And this is house number two.

這是二號房。

And let's say that they're identical houses.

而且讓我們'說，他們'是相同的房子。

These are three bedroom, two bath, townhouses some place in

這些都是三室兩廳的聯排別墅，有些地方在...

Silicon Valley, which is where I live.

硅谷，這是我住的地方。

And I want to live in one of these houses.

我想住在這些房子裡。

I'm indifferent as to which house I live in, because they

我對自己住在哪個房子裡無所謂，因為它們

are identical.

是相同的。

So living in them is the identical experience.

所以，生活在其中是相同的體驗。

I can rent this house for $3,000 a month.

我可以把這個房子租下來，一個月三千塊錢。

Or I could buy this house for $1 million.

或者我可以用100萬買下這棟房子。

And let's say that in my bank account right now, let's say I

讓我們說，在我的銀行賬戶，現在，讓我們說，我的銀行賬戶。

have $250,000 cash.

有25萬現金。

So let's see what happens in either scenario.

所以讓我們'看看兩種情況下會發生什麼。

Let's see how much money is being burned.

讓我們看看有多少錢被燒掉了。

So in this scenario what happens?

那麼在這種情況下會發生什麼呢？

I'm renting.

我在租房

So in a given year, let's just see how much money comes out

所以在某一年，我們就看看有多少錢出來吧'。

of my pocket.

我的口袋裡。

So in a given year I pay $3,000.

所以在某一年，我付出了3000元。

$3,000 times 12 months, so I lose $36,000.

3000元乘以12個月，所以我損失了36000元。

So I'll put a negative there, because that's

所以我在那裡放一個否定的東西，因為那是。

what I spend in rent.

我花在租金上的錢。

$36,000 per year in rent.

每年租金36000元。

And then of course I have that $250,000.

當然，我還有那25萬美金。

I'm going to put that into the bank, because I have nothing

我要把它存進銀行，因為我什麼都沒有了

else to do with it.

其他的事情。

I didn't buy a house with it.

我沒有用它買房子。

And let's say that I can, in the bank, let's say

而讓我們說，我可以，在銀行，讓我們說。

I put it in a CD.

我把它放進了CD裡。

And I get 4% on that.

我得到4%的收益。

So let's see, 250, that's what? $10,000, I think.

所以讓我們'看看，250，那是什麼'萬美元，我想。

That's 0.04.

那是0.04。

Right, I get $10,000 in interest a year on that.

對了，我每年可以得到一萬塊錢的利息。

So I get $10,000.

所以我得到了一萬塊錢。

So plus $10,000 a year in interest.

所以加上每年1萬元的利息。

So out of my pocket, for the privilege of living in this

所以從我的口袋裡掏出來，為的就是能有幸住在這個地方

house, in Silicon Valley, with beautiful weather, out of my

的房子，在硅谷，天氣晴朗，出了我。

pocket every year goes $26,000.

兜裡每年去26000元。

So that's scenario one.

所以這就是方案一。

So what happens if I give in to the peer pressure of

所以，如果我屈服於同行的壓力，會發生什麼？

family, and realtors, and the mortgage industry, and I buy

家庭，和房地產商，和抵押貸款行業，我買了

this house for $1 million?

這房子要100萬？

Well I only have $250,000, which is more, frankly, than

好吧，我只有25萬美元，這是更多的，坦率地說，比。

most people who buy $1 million houses have. But I have

大多數買100萬房子的人都有。但我有

$250,000 cash.

250,000美元現金。

So I need to borrow $750,000.

所以我需要借75萬。

So I take out a mortgage for $750,000.

所以我以75萬的價格進行抵押貸款。

And I'm going to do a slight simplification.

而我'要做一個稍微的簡化。

And maybe in a future presentation, I'll do kind of

也許在未來的演講中，我將會做一種。

a more complicated one.

一個更復雜的。

In a lot of mortgages, when you pay your monthly payment,

在很多抵押貸款中，當你每月支付你的月供。

most of your monthly payment, at least initially, is the

您每月支付的大部分費用，至少在初期是這樣的。

interest on the amount that you're borrowing.

在你借的金額的利息'。

And you pay a little bit extra on that, to

而你要多付一點錢，以

bring this value down.

使這個數值下降。

That's called paying off the principal.

這就叫還清本金。

You can also take an interest-only loan, but the

您也可以採取只收利息的貸款方式，但是

component of the interest is the same.

利息的組成部分是相同的。

Essentially, when you take a traditional mortgage, kind of

本質上，當你採取傳統的抵押貸款，種。

a 30-year fixed, every month you're paying a little bit

30年的固定，每個月你'支付一點點。

more than the interest, just to take down the balance.

多於利息，只是為了拿下餘額。

But for the simplicity of this argument, I'm just going to

但為了這個論點的簡單性，我'我只想

say that we're doing an interest-only mortgage.

說我們'做的只是利息抵押貸款。

And then maybe with any extra savings, I can

然後也許有了額外的儲蓄，我就可以。

pay down the principal.

還清本金。

And that's the same notion.

而這'也是同一個概念。

And right now, if I do 25% down, and I'm buying a $1

而現在，如果我做25％的下降，和我'買一個1美元的

million house, I'll have to take a $750,000 mortgage.

萬元的房子，我'要拿75萬元的抵押貸款。

I don't know what a good rate is, 6%?

我不知道什麼是好率，6%？

So let's say at 6% interest. So to live in this house, how

所以我們'說按6%的利息計算。所以要住在這個房子裡，如何

much am I paying just in interest?

我光利息就要付多少錢？

Well I'm paying $750,000 times 6% a year.

好吧，我'支付75萬美元乘以每年6%。

So $750,000 times 0.06 is equal to $45,000 in interest.

所以75萬元乘以0.06等於4.5萬元的利息。

That's coming out of my pocket.

這是從我的口袋裡掏出來的。

And of course, on a monthly basis, that means in interest

當然，按月計算，這意味著在利息上

per month, I'm paying, just to get an idea.

每個月，我'支付，只是想了解一下。

I'm paying about $3,700, $3,800 in interest a month.

我'每月要支付大約3700元、3800元的利息。

My mortgage actually might be something like $4,000 a month.

我的房貸其實可能是每月4000元左右。

So I pay the interest. And then I pay a little bit to

所以我付了利息。然後我付一點給

chip away at the whole value of the loan.

削去貸款的全部價值。

It takes 30 years to chip away at the whole thing.

要30年才能削去全部。

And over time, the interest component becomes less, and

而隨著時間的推移，利息的成分會越來越少，而。

the principal becomes more.

本錢變得更。

But for simplicity, this is the interest that I'm paying.

但為了簡單起見，這是我支付的利息'。

$45,000 a year.

每年45000美元。

And then of course at a party, when I start to explain this,

當然，在一次聚會上，當我開始解釋這個問題時。

it's like, ah-ha.

它'的喜歡，啊哈。

But interest on a mortgage is tax deductible.

但是房貸的利息是可以抵稅的。

And what tax deductible means, is that this amount of money

而什麼叫可抵稅，就是這一筆錢。

that I spend on interest on my mortgage, I can

我花在房貸利息上的錢，我可以...

deduct from my taxes.

從我的稅收中扣除。

I can tell the IRS that I make $45,000 less

我可以告訴國稅局，我少賺了4萬5千美元

than I actually did.

比我實際做。

So if I'm getting taxed at, let's say 30%, what is the

所以，如果我的稅率，讓我們&#39；說30％，什麼是。

actual cash savings?

實際的現金儲蓄？

Well I'll save 30% of this.

好吧，我'將節省30%的這個。

I'll have to pay $15,000 less in taxes.

我'要少交15000元的稅。

How does that work?

那是怎麼做到的？

Well, think about it.

好吧，考慮一下吧。

Let's say I earned $100,000 in a year.

比方說，我一年賺了10萬元。

And I normally have to pay 30%.

而我通常要支付30%的費用。

So I normally pay $30,000 in taxes.

所以我平時交了3萬元的稅。

Right?

對吧？

This is, if I didn't have this great tax

這是，如果我沒有這個偉大的稅收'。

shelter with this house.

有了這個房子的庇護。

Now I have this interest deduction.

現在我有了這個利息扣除。

So now I tell the IRS that I'm actually

所以，現在我告訴國稅局，我'實際上是

making $55,000 a year.

年薪55000美元。

And let's say my tax rate is still 30%.

而讓'說我的稅率還是30%。

it actually will probably go down since I'm -- but let's,

它實際上可能會下降，因為我'm -- 但讓's。

just for simplicity, assume my tax rate is still $30,000.

為了簡單起見，假設我的稅率還是30000元。

So now I'm going to pay $16,500 in taxes to the IRS.

所以現在我'要向國稅局交16500元的稅。

So how much did I save in taxes?

那麼我省了多少稅呢？

So I saved $13,500 from taxes, from being able to deduct this

所以我省了13500元的稅款，因為可以扣除這個

$45,000 from my income.

從我的收入中拿出45000元。

So let's say tax savings, plus $13,500.

所以，我們說省稅，加上13500元。

Now what else goes into this equation?

現在，這個等式中還有什麼？

Do I get any interest on my $250,000?

我的25萬元有利息嗎？

Well, no.

嗯，沒有。

I had to use that as part of the down payment on my house.

我不得不用它作為我的房子首付的一部分。

So I'm not getting interest there.

所以我'那裡沒有得到興趣。

But what I do have to do is, I have to

但我必須要做的是，我必須...

pay taxes on my property.

為我的財產繳稅。

In California, out here we have to pay 1.25% in taxes, of

在加州，在這裡，我們必須支付1.25％的稅，其中

the value of the house.

房子的價值。

So what's 1.25%?

那麼1.25%是多少呢？

So, taxes, this is property tax.

所以，稅收，這就是房產稅。

And that's actually tax deductible too, so it actually

而這實際上也是可以抵稅的，所以它實際上是

becomes more like 0.75% or 1%.

變得更像0.75%或1%。

So let's just say 1% just for simplicity.

所以為了簡單起見，我們就說1%吧。

Property taxes.

財產稅；

So 1% times $1 million.

所以1%乘以100萬。

That equals what?

這等於什麼？

1% of $1 million is another $10,000 a

100萬的1%，又是1萬塊錢一個。

year in property taxes.

年的財產稅。

And notice, I'm not talking about what percent of my

而且注意，我不是在說我的百分之多少錢

mortgage goes to pay principal.

抵押貸款用於支付本金。

I'm just talking about money that's being burned by owning

我'只是在說擁有的錢被燒掉了。

this house.

這個房子。

So what is the net effect?

那麼淨效應是什麼呢？

I have a $13,500 tax savings.

我有13500元的節稅。

I have to pay $10,000 -- actually I have to pay a

我必須支付1萬美元 -- 實際上，我必須支付一筆

little bit more than that, but we're getting a little bit of

比這更多一點，但我們'得到了一點點的。

income tax savings on the deduction on

所得稅減免

the property taxes.

財產稅。

And then I actually have to pay the $45,000 of interest

然後，我實際上要支付45000元的利息。

that just goes out the door.

這只是出去的門。

So I'm paying $41,500.

所以，我'支付41500元。

Notice, none of this $41,500 is building equity.

注意，這41500元都不是建立資產。

None of it is getting saved.

都沒有得到保存。

This is money that is just being burned.

這錢就是被燒掉的。

So this is a completely comparable

所以這是一個完全可以比較的

value to this $26,000.

值到這26000元。

So in this example -- this example is not that far off

所以，在這個例子中，這個例子並沒有那麼遠。

from real values.

從實值。

Out here in the Bay area, I can rent a $1 million house

在灣區，我可以租一百萬美元的房子。

for about $3,000.

3000元左右。

But in this situation I am burning, every year $41,500,

但在這種情況下，我是燒，每年41500元。

where I could just rent the same house for $26,000 out of

在那裡，我可以只租同樣的房子 26,000美元的出

my pocket, when I adjust for everything.

我的口袋，當我調整一切。

And then people a couple of years ago said, oh, but houses

然後人們幾年前就說，哦，但是房子啊。

appreciate.

欣賞。

And that's what would make it up.

而這也是會構成的。

But now you know, very recently -- we know that

但現在你知道，最近 - 我們知道...

that's not the case.

不是這樣的

And in the next video, I'll delve into this, and

而在下一個視頻中，我'將深入研究這個問題，並。

a little bit more.

稍微多一點。

I'll see you soon.

我&39;很快就會看到你。