a young man delivered a report

一位年輕人撰寫了一份報告，

to the United States Congress

呈給美國國會。

that 80 years on,

過了80年，

still shapes the lives of everyone in this room today,

它仍影響著在座各位今天的生活。

still shapes the lives of everyone on this planet.

它仍影響著地球上所有人的生活。

That young man wasn't a politician,

那位年輕人並不是從政者，

he wasn't a businessman,

他不是商人，

a civil rights activist

亦非民權活動者，

or a faith leader.

甚或信仰領袖，

He was that most unlikely of heroes,

和英雄天差地遠，

an economist.

他是經濟學家。

His name was Simon Kuznets

[西蒙．顧志耐]

and the report that he delivered was called

他名叫西蒙．顧志耐

"National Income, 1929-1932."

他提交的報告則稱為

Now, you might think

「國家收入：1929-1932年」

this is a rather dry and dull report.

你們可能會想，

And you're absolutely right.

這報告應該很艱澀無趣吧。

It's dry as a bone.

你完全正確。

But this report is the foundation

它無聊透頂。

of how, today, we judge the success of countries:

但這報告是項基石，時至今日，

what we know best as Gross Domestic Product,

我們都據此判斷國家的成功與否：

GDP.

亦即我們最常聽到的 「國内生產總值」，

GDP has defined and shaped our lives

GDP。

for the last 80 years.

GDP定義且形塑了我們的生活，

And today I want to talk about

至今已80年。

a different way to measure the success of countries,

今天我想要談的是

a different way to define and shape our lives

在未來80年

for the next 80 years.

以另一種不同的方式 來衡量國家的成功，

But first, we have to understand

以另一種不同的方式， 來定義和形塑我們的生活。

how GDP came to dominate our lives.

但首先，我們來了解一下，

Kuznets' report was delivered

GDP是如何主宰我們的生活。

at a moment of crisis.

顧志耐的報告，

The U.S. economy was plummeting

是在經濟危機的時候寫的。

into the Great Depression

美國經濟在當時一落千丈， 造成了「經濟大蕭條」。

and policy makers were struggling to respond.

執政者想破頭，不知所措，

Struggling because they didn't know what was going on.

不知所措是因為 他們根本不知道怎麼回事，

They didn't have data and statistics.

他們沒有數據或統計資料。

So what Kuznet's report gave them

顧志耐的報告提供了

was reliable data on what the U.S. economy

有關美國經濟生產的可靠數據，

was producing,

年復一年地更新。

updated year by year.

有了這些資訊，

And armed with this information,

執政者終於

policy makers were, eventually,

能夠找出谷底翻身的方法，

able to find a way out of the slump.

且因為大家發現顧志耐的發明 非常有用，

And because Kuznets' invention

它傳到世界各地。

was found to be so useful,

時至今日，每個國家

it spread around the world.

都會做出國內生產總額的統計資料。

And now today, every country

然而，在那第一份報告裏，

produces GDP statistics.

顧志耐本人

But, in that first report,

在前言中提出一個警告

Kuznets himself delivered a warning.

在第7頁裡他提到：

It's in the introductory chapter.

「因此一個國家的利益福祉，

On page seven he says,

不應從

"The welfare of a nation can, therefore,

前述定義之衡量國家收入的 指數來推斷。」

scarcely be inferred

這並非偉大的世界名言，

from a measurement of national income

而是經濟學者的謹慎囑咐，

as defined above."

他很清楚地傳達：

It's not the greatest sound bite in the world,

GDP實為一項工具，

and it's dressed up in the cautious language of the economist.

它協助我們量化經濟的表現，

But his message was clear:

而非人民福祉的衡量標準，

GDP is a tool

不應將之做為導引所有決策的大旗。

to help us measure economic performance.

但我們忽視了顧志耐的警告。

It's not a measure of our well-being.

我們身處的世界，

And it shouldn't be a guide to all decision making.

GDP是全球經濟 成功與否的基準，

But we have ignored Kuznets' warning.

政客醉心於GDP成長。

We live in a world where

市場數以兆計的資金在全球活動，

GDP is the benchmark of success

基於於哪些國家經濟成長或衰退，

in a global economy.

都是依據GDP來衡量。

Our politicians boast when GDP goes up.

我們的社會已變成

Markets move

只顧提高GDP數字的盲目機器。

and trillions of dollars of capital

但我們知道GDP並非完美，

move around the world

它忽視環保議題，

based on which countries are going up

它把炸彈的生產和 監獄的修建視為進步，

and which countries are going down,

但卻無法計算人民幸福或社區，

all measured in GDP.

亦無法反映公平與正義。

Our societies have become

你會驚訝嗎？ 訝異於我們的世界，

engines to create more GDP.

跟隨GDP的鼓聲大步向前，

But we know that GDP is flawed.

正在環境災難的邊緣遙遙欲墜，

It ignores the environment.

四處充滿憤怒與衝突？

It counts bombs and prisons as progress.

我們需要更好的方式 來衡量我們的社會，

It can't count happiness or community.

衡量人民真正在乎的事物。

And it has nothing to say about fairness or justice.

我是否能糊口？

Is it any surprise that our world,

能否讀和寫？

marching to the drumbeat of GDP,

是否安居樂業？

is teetering on the brink of environmental disaster

是否擁有人權？

and filled with anger and conflict?

社會是否平等、沒有歧視？

We need a better way to measure our societies,

我的未來後代、子孫的未來 是否不會受環境破壞所影響？

a measure based on the real things that matter to real people.

這些問題都是GDP

Do I have enough to eat?

不會也不能回答的。

Can I read and write?

在過去，當然，

Am I safe?

已有一些努力，

Do I have rights?

希望跨越GDP。

Do I live in a society where I'm not discriminated against?

我相信我們正處於 最適合革新測量標準的時刻，

Is my future and the future of my children prevented from environmental destruction?

我們覺得水到渠成了，

These are questions that GDP

因為我們看見2008年的金融危機

does not and cannot answer.

肇因於對經濟成長的盲目崇拜 而迷失方向，

There have, of course,

我們看到，在阿拉伯之春，

been efforts in the past

本應為經濟超級新星的 突尼西亞等國家，

to move beyond GDP.

國內社會卻瀰漫不滿的聲音。

But I believe that we're living

一切水到渠成了，因為現今科技

in a moment when we

足以收集並分析更多數據，

are ready for a measurement revolution.

大大超越了過去顧志耐的想像，

We're ready because we've seen,

今天，我要向各位介紹

in the financial crisis of 2008,

「社會進步指數」 （Social Progress Index)，

how our fetish for economic growth

它是評估社會人民的福祉的標準，

led us so far astray.

和GDP涇渭分明。

We've seen, in the Arab Spring,

[社會進步指數] 這是以一個全新的視角觀看世界。

how countries like Tunisia

[社會進步指數] 社會進步指數

were supposedly economic superstars,

始於定義何謂理想的社會，

but they were societies

它基於三個面向：

that were seething with discontentment.

第一： 是否滿足人人的基本生存需求？

We're ready, because today we have the technology

如食物、水、住所、安全？

to gather and analyze data

第二： 是否人人皆擁有

in ways that would have been unimaginable to Kuznets.

提昇生活品質的基礎要素，

Today, I'd like to introduce you to the Social Progress Index.

如教育、資訊、健康及永續環境？

It's a measure of the well-being of society,

第三： 是否人人皆有

completely separate from GDP.

追求自我實現 目標、理想、抱負的可能性？

It's a whole new way of looking at the world.

不受任何阻礙？

The Social Progress Index

他們是否擁有人權，

begins by defining what it

自由選擇的權利、

means to be a good society

不受歧視的權利、

based around three dimensions.

以及接觸世界最先進知識的權利？

The first is, does everyone have the basic needs for survival:

這12個項目共同組成

food, water, shelter, safety?

「社會進步」的架構。

Secondly, does everyone have

12項中的每一項，

access to the building blocks to improve their lives:

我們設定了量測基準， 來評估每個國家的表現，

education, information, health and sustainable environment?

不是考量努力程度、或是意向，

And then third, does every individual have access

而是考量實際的成果。

to a chance to pursue their goals

我們不計算國家健保支出，

and dreams and ambitions

我們量測國民壽命長短及生活品質。

free from obstacles?

我們不考量政府是否通過反歧視法案，

Do they have rights,

我們量測民眾受歧視的親身經驗。

freedom of choice,

但你們最想知道的， 應該是各國排名，對吧？

freedom from discrimination

（笑聲）

and access to the the world's most advanced knowledge?

我明白，我明白，我明白。

Together, these 12 components

好，我給大家看看，

form the Social Progress framework.

我給你們看看這張圖表。

And for each of these 12 components,

來了，

we have indicators to measure how countries are performing.

這邊我把社會進步放在縱軸，

Not indicators of effort or intention,

越高表示越好，

but real achievement.

然後，我們來比較一下，

We don't measure how much a country spends on healthcare,

好玩嘛，

we measure the length and quality of people's lives.

橫軸代表人均GDP。

We don't measure whether governments pass laws against discrimination,

越右邊表示越高。

we measure whether people experience discrimination.

所以世界上

But what you want to know

擁有最高的社會進步，

is who's top, don't you? (Laughter)

社會進步第一高的國家

I knew that, I knew that, I knew that.

是 ‧ ‧ ‧ ‧ ‧

Okay, I'm going to show you.

紐西蘭。

I'm going to show you on this chart.

（鼓掌）

So here we are,

做得好！我沒去過那，必須去一下。

what I've done here is put on the vertical axis social progress.

（笑聲）

Higher is better.

社會進步最低的國家，

And then, just for comparison,

很抱歉我必須說，是查德。

just for fun,

我沒去過那，或許明年吧。

on the horizontal axis is GDP per capita.

（笑聲）

Further to the right is more.

或者後年吧。

So the country in the world

好，我知道你們在想什麼，

with the highest social progress,

你們在想：「啊哈，

the number one country on social progress

但是紐西蘭的GDP 比查德高喔！

is New Zealand.

但是紐西蘭的GDP 比查德高喔！」

(Applause)

你說得對，說得好。

Well done! Never been; must go.

但我給大家瞧瞧

(Laughter)

另外兩個國家。

The country with the least social progress,

請看美國 －

I'm sorry to say, is Chad.

遠比紐西蘭有錢，

I've never been; maybe next year.

但社會進步程度相對較低。

(Laughter)

然後請看塞內加爾 －

Or maybe the year after.

社會進步程度優於查德，

Now, I know what you're thinking.

但GDP水準相同。

You're thinking, "Aha,

這怎麼回事？好，看著，

but New Zealand has a higher GDP

我來把其他世界各國都放上來，

than Chad!"

共132國，只要我們能夠測量的

It's a good point, well made.

一個點代表一個國家。

But let me show you

來了，一堆點。

two other countries.

顯然我無法逐一說明， 我給大家提示幾個，

Here's the United States —

七大工業國(G7)裡面， 排名最高的是加拿大。

considerably richer than New Zealand,

我的祖國，英國呢，

but with a lower level of social progress.

位居中間，中庸無聊，

And then here's Senegal —

管他的...

it's got a higher level of social progress than Chad,

好歹我們贏法國啦。

but the same level of GDP.

（笑聲）

So what's going on? Well, look.

（掌聲）

Let me bring in the rest of the countries of the world,

然後看看發展中的經濟體，

the 132 we've been able to measure,

金磚四國第一名， 很高興宣佈：巴西。

each one represented by a dot.

（鼓掌）

There we go. Lots of dots.

來啦，歡呼一下！

Now, obviously I can't do all of them,

巴西加油！

so a few highlights for you:

打敗南非、

The highest ranked G7 country is Canada.

俄國、

My country, the United Kingdom,

中國、

is sort of middling, sort of dull,

以及印度。

but who cares —

藏在右手邊的，

at least we beat the French.

你們可以看到那個點 有很高的GDP，

(Laughter)

但社會進步指數不高的：

And then looking at the emerging economies,

科威特。

top of the BRICS, pleased to say, is Brazil.

另一個高於巴西的

(Applause)

是社會進步的強力代表：

Come on, cheer!

哥斯大黎加。

Go, Brazil!

它的生活進步 和一些西方國家旗鼓相當，

Beating South Africa,

GDP卻低很多。

then Russia,

好，現在投影片畫面有點滿，

then China

我要退後點看，

and then India.

把國家名稱拿掉、

Tucked away on the right-hand side,

秀出回歸線，

you will see a dot of a country with a lot of GDP

如此可以顯出平均GDP 和平均生活水準的相對關係。

but not a huge amount of social progress —

如此可以顯出平均GDP 和平均社會進步的相對關係。

that's Kuwait.

首先注意看，

Just above Brazil

趨勢線附近有很多偏移點，

is a social progress superpower —

趨勢線附近有很多偏移點，

that's Costa Rica.

這表示，

It's got a level of social progress the same as some Western European countries,

這個基於經驗顯示的是，

with a much lower GDP.

GDP不是一切。

Now, my slide is getting a little cluttered

相同的人均GDP水準，

and I'd like to step back a bit.

人民的社會進步可能較高，

So let me take away these countries,

也可能更差。

and then pop in the regression line.

第二件事：

So this shows the average relationship

就是對貧窮國家來說

between GDP and social progress.

上升斜率很大，

The first thing to notice,

意思是說，

is that there's lots of noise

貧窮國家只要

around the trend line.

增加一點點GDP，

And what this shows,

將其投入在

what this empirically demonstrates,

醫護資源、水資源、

is that GDP is not destiny.

衛生條件等等，

At every level of GDP per capita,

只要一點點GDP 就能有長足的社會進步。

there are opportunities for more social progress,

只要一點點GDP 就能有長足的社會進步。

risks of less.

這是個好消息啊， 也是我們這二、三十年看到的，

The second thing to notice

以經濟成長和良善政策 讓落後國家的民眾脫離貧困。

is that for poor countries,

以經濟成長和良善政策 讓落後國家的民眾脫離貧困。

the curve is really steep.

以經濟成長和良善政策 讓落後國家的民眾脫離貧困。

So what this tells us is that

不過跟著曲線再往上走，

if poor countries can get

趨勢變得比較平緩。

a little bit of extra GDP,

多出來的GDP，

and if they reinvest that

換得的社會進步程度就低很多，

in doctors, nurses, water supplies,

而世界上越來越多的人口

sanitation, etc.,

都是在這個區間生存，

there's a lot of social progress bang

也就意味著GDP變得

for your GDP buck.

越來越沒用，

And that's good news, and that's what we've seen over the last 20, 30 years,

無法卻引導未來的發展。

with a lot of people lifted out of poverty

我給大家看看巴西的例子。

by economic growth and good policies

這是巴西，

in poorer countries.

人民生活水準 滿分100裡面拿了70分，

But go on a bit further up the curve,

一年人均GDP約1萬4千美元。

and then we see it flattening out.

瞧，巴西優於回歸預測線。

Each extra dollar of GDP

在移轉GDP到社會進步發展上， 巴西做得很好。

is buying less and less social progress.

在移轉GDP到社會進步發展上， 巴西做得很好。

And with more and more of the world's population

但巴西接下來該往哪兒走？

living on this part of the curve,

或許巴西想要

it means GDP is becoming

採取大膽的經濟方案，

less and less useful

希望十年內讓GDP翻一倍，

as a guide to our development.

但那只計劃了一半，

I'll show you an example of Brazil.

甚至一半都不到啊。

Here's Brazil:

因為，巴西人民的社會進步 該何去何從呢？

social progress of about 70 out of 100,

巴西，你可以

GDP per capita about 14,000 dollars a year.

讓經濟成長，

And look, Brazil's above the line.

提昇GDP，

Brazil is doing a reasonably good job

然而生活水準可能會退步或低迷，

of turning GDP into social progress.

然而社會進步可能會退步或低迷，

But where does Brazil go next?

我們不希望巴西

Let's say that Brazil

向俄國看齊。

adopts a bold economic plan

我們真心希望巴西

to double GDP in the next decade.

它的GDP可以有效地 創造更好的社會進步，

But that is only half a plan.

希望它朝紐西蘭的方向邁進。

It's less than half a plan,

那就表示，