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  • On January 4, 1934,

    1934年1月4日,

  • a young man delivered a report

    一位年輕人撰寫了一份報告,

  • to the United States Congress

    呈給美國國會。

  • that 80 years on,

    過了80年,

  • still shapes the lives of everyone in this room today,

    它仍影響著在座各位今天的生活。

  • still shapes the lives of everyone on this planet.

    它仍影響著地球上所有人的生活。

  • That young man wasn't a politician,

    那位年輕人並不是從政者,

  • he wasn't a businessman,

    他不是商人,

  • a civil rights activist

    亦非民權活動者,

  • or a faith leader.

    甚或信仰領袖,

  • He was that most unlikely of heroes,

    和英雄天差地遠,

  • an economist.

    他是經濟學家。

  • His name was Simon Kuznets

    [西蒙.顧志耐]

  • and the report that he delivered was called

    他名叫西蒙.顧志耐

  • "National Income, 1929-1932."

    他提交的報告則稱為

  • Now, you might think

    「國家收入:1929-1932年」

  • this is a rather dry and dull report.

    你們可能會想,

  • And you're absolutely right.

    這報告應該很艱澀無趣吧。

  • It's dry as a bone.

    你完全正確。

  • But this report is the foundation

    它無聊透頂。

  • of how, today, we judge the success of countries:

    但這報告是項基石,時至今日,

  • what we know best as Gross Domestic Product,

    我們都據此判斷國家的成功與否:

  • GDP.

    亦即我們最常聽到的 「國内生產總值」,

  • GDP has defined and shaped our lives

    GDP。

  • for the last 80 years.

    GDP定義且形塑了我們的生活,

  • And today I want to talk about

    至今已80年。

  • a different way to measure the success of countries,

    今天我想要談的是

  • a different way to define and shape our lives

    在未來80年

  • for the next 80 years.

    以另一種不同的方式 來衡量國家的成功,

  • But first, we have to understand

    以另一種不同的方式, 來定義和形塑我們的生活。

  • how GDP came to dominate our lives.

    但首先,我們來了解一下,

  • Kuznets' report was delivered

    GDP是如何主宰我們的生活。

  • at a moment of crisis.

    顧志耐的報告,

  • The U.S. economy was plummeting

    是在經濟危機的時候寫的。

  • into the Great Depression

    美國經濟在當時一落千丈, 造成了「經濟大蕭條」。

  • and policy makers were struggling to respond.

    執政者想破頭,不知所措,

  • Struggling because they didn't know what was going on.

    不知所措是因為 他們根本不知道怎麼回事,

  • They didn't have data and statistics.

    他們沒有數據或統計資料。

  • So what Kuznet's report gave them

    顧志耐的報告提供了

  • was reliable data on what the U.S. economy

    有關美國經濟生產的可靠數據,

  • was producing,

    年復一年地更新。

  • updated year by year.

    有了這些資訊,

  • And armed with this information,

    執政者終於

  • policy makers were, eventually,

    能夠找出谷底翻身的方法,

  • able to find a way out of the slump.

    且因為大家發現顧志耐的發明 非常有用,

  • And because Kuznets' invention

    它傳到世界各地。

  • was found to be so useful,

    時至今日,每個國家

  • it spread around the world.

    都會做出國內生產總額的統計資料。

  • And now today, every country

    然而,在那第一份報告裏,

  • produces GDP statistics.

    顧志耐本人

  • But, in that first report,

    在前言中提出一個警告

  • Kuznets himself delivered a warning.

    在第7頁裡他提到:

  • It's in the introductory chapter.

    「因此一個國家的利益福祉,

  • On page seven he says,

    不應從

  • "The welfare of a nation can, therefore,

    前述定義之衡量國家收入的 指數來推斷。」

  • scarcely be inferred

    這並非偉大的世界名言,

  • from a measurement of national income

    而是經濟學者的謹慎囑咐,

  • as defined above."

    他很清楚地傳達:

  • It's not the greatest sound bite in the world,

    GDP實為一項工具,

  • and it's dressed up in the cautious language of the economist.

    它協助我們量化經濟的表現,

  • But his message was clear:

    而非人民福祉的衡量標準,

  • GDP is a tool

    不應將之做為導引所有決策的大旗。

  • to help us measure economic performance.

    但我們忽視了顧志耐的警告。

  • It's not a measure of our well-being.

    我們身處的世界,

  • And it shouldn't be a guide to all decision making.

    GDP是全球經濟 成功與否的基準,

  • But we have ignored Kuznets' warning.

    政客醉心於GDP成長。

  • We live in a world where

    市場數以兆計的資金在全球活動,

  • GDP is the benchmark of success

    基於於哪些國家經濟成長或衰退,

  • in a global economy.

    都是依據GDP來衡量。

  • Our politicians boast when GDP goes up.

    我們的社會已變成

  • Markets move

    只顧提高GDP數字的盲目機器。

  • and trillions of dollars of capital

    但我們知道GDP並非完美,

  • move around the world

    它忽視環保議題,

  • based on which countries are going up

    它把炸彈的生產和 監獄的修建視為進步,

  • and which countries are going down,

    但卻無法計算人民幸福或社區,

  • all measured in GDP.

    亦無法反映公平與正義。

  • Our societies have become

    你會驚訝嗎? 訝異於我們的世界,

  • engines to create more GDP.

    跟隨GDP的鼓聲大步向前,

  • But we know that GDP is flawed.

    正在環境災難的邊緣遙遙欲墜,

  • It ignores the environment.

    四處充滿憤怒與衝突?

  • It counts bombs and prisons as progress.

    我們需要更好的方式 來衡量我們的社會,

  • It can't count happiness or community.

    衡量人民真正在乎的事物。

  • And it has nothing to say about fairness or justice.

    我是否能糊口?

  • Is it any surprise that our world,

    能否讀和寫?

  • marching to the drumbeat of GDP,

    是否安居樂業?

  • is teetering on the brink of environmental disaster

    是否擁有人權?

  • and filled with anger and conflict?

    社會是否平等、沒有歧視?

  • We need a better way to measure our societies,

    我的未來後代、子孫的未來 是否不會受環境破壞所影響?

  • a measure based on the real things that matter to real people.

    這些問題都是GDP

  • Do I have enough to eat?

    不會也不能回答的。

  • Can I read and write?

    在過去,當然,

  • Am I safe?

    已有一些努力,

  • Do I have rights?

    希望跨越GDP。

  • Do I live in a society where I'm not discriminated against?

    我相信我們正處於 最適合革新測量標準的時刻,

  • Is my future and the future of my children prevented from environmental destruction?

    我們覺得水到渠成了,

  • These are questions that GDP

    因為我們看見2008年的金融危機

  • does not and cannot answer.

    肇因於對經濟成長的盲目崇拜 而迷失方向,

  • There have, of course,

    我們看到,在阿拉伯之春,

  • been efforts in the past

    本應為經濟超級新星的 突尼西亞等國家,

  • to move beyond GDP.

    國內社會卻瀰漫不滿的聲音。

  • But I believe that we're living

    一切水到渠成了,因為現今科技

  • in a moment when we

    足以收集並分析更多數據,

  • are ready for a measurement revolution.

    大大超越了過去顧志耐的想像,

  • We're ready because we've seen,

    今天,我要向各位介紹

  • in the financial crisis of 2008,

    「社會進步指數」 (Social Progress Index),

  • how our fetish for economic growth

    它是評估社會人民的福祉的標準,

  • led us so far astray.

    和GDP涇渭分明。

  • We've seen, in the Arab Spring,

    [社會進步指數] 這是以一個全新的視角觀看世界。

  • how countries like Tunisia

    [社會進步指數] 社會進步指數

  • were supposedly economic superstars,

    始於定義何謂理想的社會,

  • but they were societies

    它基於三個面向:

  • that were seething with discontentment.

    第一: 是否滿足人人的基本生存需求?

  • We're ready, because today we have the technology

    如食物、水、住所、安全?

  • to gather and analyze data

    第二: 是否人人皆擁有

  • in ways that would have been unimaginable to Kuznets.

    提昇生活品質的基礎要素,

  • Today, I'd like to introduce you to the Social Progress Index.

    如教育、資訊、健康及永續環境?

  • It's a measure of the well-being of society,

    第三: 是否人人皆有

  • completely separate from GDP.

    追求自我實現 目標、理想、抱負的可能性?

  • It's a whole new way of looking at the world.

    不受任何阻礙?

  • The Social Progress Index

    他們是否擁有人權,

  • begins by defining what it

    自由選擇的權利、

  • means to be a good society

    不受歧視的權利、

  • based around three dimensions.

    以及接觸世界最先進知識的權利?

  • The first is, does everyone have the basic needs for survival:

    這12個項目共同組成

  • food, water, shelter, safety?

    「社會進步」的架構。

  • Secondly, does everyone have

    12項中的每一項,

  • access to the building blocks to improve their lives:

    我們設定了量測基準, 來評估每個國家的表現,

  • education, information, health and sustainable environment?

    不是考量努力程度、或是意向,

  • And then third, does every individual have access

    而是考量實際的成果。

  • to a chance to pursue their goals

    我們不計算國家健保支出,

  • and dreams and ambitions

    我們量測國民壽命長短及生活品質。

  • free from obstacles?

    我們不考量政府是否通過反歧視法案,

  • Do they have rights,

    我們量測民眾受歧視的親身經驗。

  • freedom of choice,

    但你們最想知道的, 應該是各國排名,對吧?

  • freedom from discrimination

    (笑聲)

  • and access to the the world's most advanced knowledge?

    我明白,我明白,我明白。

  • Together, these 12 components

    好,我給大家看看,

  • form the Social Progress framework.

    我給你們看看這張圖表。

  • And for each of these 12 components,

    來了,

  • we have indicators to measure how countries are performing.

    這邊我把社會進步放在縱軸,

  • Not indicators of effort or intention,

    越高表示越好,

  • but real achievement.

    然後,我們來比較一下,

  • We don't measure how much a country spends on healthcare,

    好玩嘛,

  • we measure the length and quality of people's lives.

    橫軸代表人均GDP。

  • We don't measure whether governments pass laws against discrimination,

    越右邊表示越高。

  • we measure whether people experience discrimination.

    所以世界上

  • But what you want to know

    擁有最高的社會進步,

  • is who's top, don't you? (Laughter)

    社會進步第一高的國家

  • I knew that, I knew that, I knew that.

    是 ‧ ‧ ‧ ‧ ‧

  • Okay, I'm going to show you.

    紐西蘭。

  • I'm going to show you on this chart.

    (鼓掌)

  • So here we are,

    做得好!我沒去過那,必須去一下。

  • what I've done here is put on the vertical axis social progress.

    (笑聲)

  • Higher is better.

    社會進步最低的國家,

  • And then, just for comparison,

    很抱歉我必須說,是查德。

  • just for fun,

    我沒去過那,或許明年吧。

  • on the horizontal axis is GDP per capita.

    (笑聲)

  • Further to the right is more.

    或者後年吧。

  • So the country in the world

    好,我知道你們在想什麼,

  • with the highest social progress,

    你們在想:「啊哈,

  • the number one country on social progress

    但是紐西蘭的GDP 比查德高喔!

  • is New Zealand.

    但是紐西蘭的GDP 比查德高喔!」

  • (Applause)

    你說得對,說得好。

  • Well done! Never been; must go.

    但我給大家瞧瞧

  • (Laughter)

    另外兩個國家。

  • The country with the least social progress,

    請看美國 -

  • I'm sorry to say, is Chad.

    遠比紐西蘭有錢,

  • I've never been; maybe next year.

    但社會進步程度相對較低。

  • (Laughter)

    然後請看塞內加爾 -

  • Or maybe the year after.

    社會進步程度優於查德,

  • Now, I know what you're thinking.

    但GDP水準相同。

  • You're thinking, "Aha,

    這怎麼回事?好,看著,

  • but New Zealand has a higher GDP

    我來把其他世界各國都放上來,

  • than Chad!"

    共132國,只要我們能夠測量的

  • It's a good point, well made.

    一個點代表一個國家。

  • But let me show you

    來了,一堆點。

  • two other countries.

    顯然我無法逐一說明, 我給大家提示幾個,

  • Here's the United States

    七大工業國(G7)裡面, 排名最高的是加拿大。

  • considerably richer than New Zealand,

    我的祖國,英國呢,

  • but with a lower level of social progress.

    位居中間,中庸無聊,

  • And then here's Senegal

    管他的...

  • it's got a higher level of social progress than Chad,

    好歹我們贏法國啦。

  • but the same level of GDP.

    (笑聲)

  • So what's going on? Well, look.

    (掌聲)

  • Let me bring in the rest of the countries of the world,

    然後看看發展中的經濟體,

  • the 132 we've been able to measure,

    金磚四國第一名, 很高興宣佈:巴西。

  • each one represented by a dot.

    (鼓掌)

  • There we go. Lots of dots.

    來啦,歡呼一下!

  • Now, obviously I can't do all of them,

    巴西加油!

  • so a few highlights for you:

    打敗南非、

  • The highest ranked G7 country is Canada.

    俄國、

  • My country, the United Kingdom,

    中國、

  • is sort of middling, sort of dull,

    以及印度。

  • but who cares

    藏在右手邊的,

  • at least we beat the French.

    你們可以看到那個點 有很高的GDP,

  • (Laughter)

    但社會進步指數不高的:

  • And then looking at the emerging economies,

    科威特。

  • top of the BRICS, pleased to say, is Brazil.

    另一個高於巴西的

  • (Applause)

    是社會進步的強力代表:

  • Come on, cheer!

    哥斯大黎加。

  • Go, Brazil!

    它的生活進步 和一些西方國家旗鼓相當,

  • Beating South Africa,

    GDP卻低很多。

  • then Russia,

    好,現在投影片畫面有點滿,

  • then China

    我要退後點看,

  • and then India.

    把國家名稱拿掉、

  • Tucked away on the right-hand side,

    秀出回歸線,

  • you will see a dot of a country with a lot of GDP

    如此可以顯出平均GDP 和平均生活水準的相對關係。

  • but not a huge amount of social progress

    如此可以顯出平均GDP 和平均社會進步的相對關係。

  • that's Kuwait.

    首先注意看,

  • Just above Brazil

    趨勢線附近有很多偏移點,

  • is a social progress superpower

    趨勢線附近有很多偏移點,

  • that's Costa Rica.

    這表示,

  • It's got a level of social progress the same as some Western European countries,

    這個基於經驗顯示的是,

  • with a much lower GDP.

    GDP不是一切。

  • Now, my slide is getting a little cluttered

    相同的人均GDP水準,

  • and I'd like to step back a bit.

    人民的社會進步可能較高,

  • So let me take away these countries,

    也可能更差。

  • and then pop in the regression line.

    第二件事:

  • So this shows the average relationship

    就是對貧窮國家來說

  • between GDP and social progress.

    上升斜率很大,

  • The first thing to notice,

    意思是說,

  • is that there's lots of noise

    貧窮國家只要

  • around the trend line.

    增加一點點GDP,

  • And what this shows,

    將其投入在

  • what this empirically demonstrates,

    醫護資源、水資源、

  • is that GDP is not destiny.

    衛生條件等等,

  • At every level of GDP per capita,

    只要一點點GDP 就能有長足的社會進步。

  • there are opportunities for more social progress,

    只要一點點GDP 就能有長足的社會進步。

  • risks of less.

    這是個好消息啊, 也是我們這二、三十年看到的,

  • The second thing to notice

    以經濟成長和良善政策 讓落後國家的民眾脫離貧困。

  • is that for poor countries,

    以經濟成長和良善政策 讓落後國家的民眾脫離貧困。

  • the curve is really steep.

    以經濟成長和良善政策 讓落後國家的民眾脫離貧困。

  • So what this tells us is that

    不過跟著曲線再往上走,

  • if poor countries can get

    趨勢變得比較平緩。

  • a little bit of extra GDP,

    多出來的GDP,

  • and if they reinvest that

    換得的社會進步程度就低很多,

  • in doctors, nurses, water supplies,

    而世界上越來越多的人口

  • sanitation, etc.,

    都是在這個區間生存,

  • there's a lot of social progress bang

    也就意味著GDP變得

  • for your GDP buck.

    越來越沒用,

  • And that's good news, and that's what we've seen over the last 20, 30 years,

    無法卻引導未來的發展。

  • with a lot of people lifted out of poverty

    我給大家看看巴西的例子。

  • by economic growth and good policies

    這是巴西,

  • in poorer countries.

    人民生活水準 滿分100裡面拿了70分,

  • But go on a bit further up the curve,

    一年人均GDP約1萬4千美元。

  • and then we see it flattening out.

    瞧,巴西優於回歸預測線。

  • Each extra dollar of GDP

    在移轉GDP到社會進步發展上, 巴西做得很好。

  • is buying less and less social progress.

    在移轉GDP到社會進步發展上, 巴西做得很好。

  • And with more and more of the world's population

    但巴西接下來該往哪兒走?

  • living on this part of the curve,

    或許巴西想要

  • it means GDP is becoming

    採取大膽的經濟方案,

  • less and less useful

    希望十年內讓GDP翻一倍,

  • as a guide to our development.

    但那只計劃了一半,

  • I'll show you an example of Brazil.

    甚至一半都不到啊。

  • Here's Brazil:

    因為,巴西人民的社會進步 該何去何從呢?

  • social progress of about 70 out of 100,

    巴西,你可以

  • GDP per capita about 14,000 dollars a year.

    讓經濟成長,

  • And look, Brazil's above the line.

    提昇GDP,