Name: 警告：房地產市場正陷入嚴重危機！😨 (WARNING: Something is going deeply wrong in Housing Market)
Uploaded: 2026-03-18T18:07:12.000Z
Duration: 11 min 7 s

There is something weird and strange is happening in the housing market.

程度副詞

President Donald Trump just signed executive orders to make it much easier for you to be able to buy a house.

川普總統剛簽署了行政命令，讓大家買房變得更輕鬆。

基礎被動語態

In theory, this is supposed to make it much easier to get a mortgage, and

理論上，這應該能讓申請房貸更容易，

secondly, it's supposed to bring mortgage rates down, which is the main reason that will make it easier for you to buy a house.

還有，這應該能降低房貸利率，這也是讓大家買房變容易的主要原因。

The only problem is that this executive decision can potentially lead to to a 2008 financial crisis to repeat again in the United States.

但問題是，這個行政命令可能會讓美國重演 2008 年的金融危機。

So the first decision by Donald Trump was that to soften regulations for community banks.

所以川普的第一個決定是放寬社區銀行的監管。

Before the bank will offer you a mortgage, the bank is required by law to do a lot of background checks.

在銀行提供房貸給你之前，法律規定銀行必須做很多背景調查。

It must look at the amount of debt that you have at your income and many other financial metrics so that this loan is going to be provided only to people who can afford that mortgage.

銀行必須檢視你的負債金額、收入以及許多其他財務指標，確保這筆貸款只會提供給有能力負擔房貸的人。

But with this law, it is going to be a lot easier because the banks no longer have to do all of these background checks and will be able to offer you the mortgage now.

但有了這項新規定，一切都會變得容易許多，因為銀行不再需要做這麼多背景調查，就能提供房貸給你了。

Now the valuations are the most important part of the mortgage.

現在估價是房貸最重要的部分。

So when you're getting a house and you're getting a mortgage, that mortgage is considered a very safe investment because this mortgage is being backed by a house.

所以當你買房子、申請房貸時，這筆房貸會被視為一個非常安全的投資，因為這筆房貸有房子作為擔保。

So let's say for example, that the price of the house is $500,000 and your mortgage is $500,000.

所以假設房子的價格是 50 萬美元，你的房貸也是 50 萬美元。

Now this is a very safe investment or a very safe debt because if you default on that loan, then the bank can sell the house for $500,000 and close your mortgage.

這是一筆非常安全的投資或債務，因為如果你違約，銀行可以賣掉房子，價值 50 萬美元，然後結清你的房貸。

But now with this decision, a human no longer has to go and approve the housing valuation, but

但現在有了這項決定，人類不再需要去準許房屋估價，而是

And finally, Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae have $200 billion in total right now.

最後，房利美和房地美總共有 2000 億美元。

And that money will be spent to buy mortgage backed securities to bring mortgage rates down.

這些錢將用來購買抵押貸款支持證券，以降低房貸利率。

So mortgage backed securities are one of the most important assets we have in the market.

所以抵押貸款支持證券是我們市場上最重要的資產之一。

Because whenever you go and get yourself a house with a mortgage, that mortgage is turned into a security that we call a mortgage backed security.

因為當你買房子申請房貸時，這筆房貸會被轉變成一種證券，我們稱之為抵押貸款支持證券。

So a security that is being backed by a mortgage and then it is sold to investors.

所以，這是一種由房貸支持、然後賣給投資者的證券。

At first it might seem like it is the bank that is offering you the mortgage, but

一開始你可能會覺得是銀行提供你房貸，但

in reality, yes, the bank might offer you the mortgage, but

實際上，沒錯，銀行可能會提供你房貸，但是

it's doing with the intention to, to sell that mortgage to some kind of other investor.

牠們的目的是要把這筆房貸賣給某種其他投資者。

The bank is interested because it's not going to take the risks for the next 30 years.

銀行之所以感興趣，是因為牠們不用承擔未來 30 年的風險。

And the investors on the other side just park this Money in a very safe investment that they're backed by real estate.

而另一邊的投資者只是把錢停放在一種非常安全的投資上，這種投資有房地產作為後盾。

So whenever you make your mortgage payments, it is the investors on the other side that is receiving your interest payments.

所以，每當你支付房貸時，收到你利息支付的正是另一邊的投資者。

Now, to understand how this can potentially lead to another 2008 financial crisis, you have to understand what really caused the 2008 crash.

現在，要了解這如何可能導致另一次 2008 年的金融危機，你必須瞭解 2008 年崩盤的真正原因。

What happened is that there was a housing bubble.

當時發生的是，出現了房市保麗龍。

But how is it possible that in the housing market, which are the most safest investments in the world, can we possibly have a bubble?

但房地產市場，也就是世界上最安全的投資，怎麼會出現保麗龍呢？

And that's because the housing market is turned into mortgage backed securities, just like I explained right now.

那是因為房地產市場被轉化成了抵押貸款支持證券，就像我剛才解釋的一樣。

So the housing market is no longer just a housing market.

所以，房地產市場不再僅僅是房地產市場。

It is one of the main places where investors park their money because investors feel confident that that these securities and investments are being backed by houses.

它是投資者停放資金的主要場所之一，因為投資者對這些證券和投資有房屋作為後盾感到放心。

Imagine if you are huge investors with a lot of money.

想像一下，如果你是擁有大量資金的巨額投資者。

If you gonna go and take that money and start buying houses, it is a headache for you.

如果你要拿這些錢去買房子，那對你來說會很頭痛。

It is really difficult to manage so many houses.

Just go and ask somebody who has been in real estate.

你可以去問問那些做過房地產的人。

He will tell you that the real estate business is brutal.

他們會告訴你，房地產生意很殘酷。

You need to have an entire team to do that.

你需要組建一個完整的團隊來處理。

But what if you're an investor who simply wants to make money out of the housing market without actually getting into the housing market?

但如果你是個只想從房地產市場賺錢，卻不想實際進入房地產市場的投資者呢？

And that's why we have mortgage backed securities where all of these mortgages will be turned into a security, just like a US government bond and just sold to investors.

這也是為什麼我們有抵押貸款支持證券，把這些房貸都變成一種證券，就像美國政府公債一樣，然後賣給投資者。

So if you're paying for example, 7% on your mortgage, then the bank or the investments on the other side that will be receiving that 7%, so the investor is happy, you are happy, and

所以如果你支付了 7% 的房貸利率，那麼銀行或另一邊的投資者就會收到這 7%，你高興，我也高興，

the bank is happy that brokered the deal between you.

還有中間牽線的銀行也很高興。

What happened in 2008 is that a lot of people could actually get mortgages without these background checks.

2008 年發生了什麼事？很多人其實在沒有這些背景調查的情況下就能拿到房貸。

So the mortgages will be offered to somebody who cannot possibly afford that mortgage because the person might not have a job, maybe the person was drowning in debt, or maybe simply because the person was not financially responsible.

所以這些房貸會提供給根本無力負擔的人，因為那個人可能沒有工作，可能負債累累，或者只是因為那個人對財務不負責任。

Wasn't bank required required to do all of these background checks?

銀行不是被要求要做所有這些背景調查嗎？

Well, we have softened the regulations so much that most banks did not actually care about the bank ground checks because the banks allowed them to avoid the bank ground checks.

嗯，我們放寬了這麼多監管，所以大部分銀行其實不太在意背景調查，因為銀行允許他們規避背景調查。

And remember, the bank is not going to keep that mortgage.

而且請記得，銀行不會自己保留這筆房貸。

All they wanted is to close the deal as soon as possible so that the bank will actually get its commission.

他們只想盡快完成交易，這樣銀行就能拿到手續費。

So with this law, that will make it a lot Easier for community banks to offer mortgages without the background checks.

所以有了這項法律，社區銀行就能更容易提供房貸，而不需要做背景調查。

It is literally the first step, step on the same direction.

這真的是第一步，是朝同一個方向邁出的步伐。

Now the second problem is that what caused the 2008 financial crisis are incorrect appraisals.

第二個問題是，造成 2008 年金融危機的原因是錯誤的估價。

So when you go and get yourself a house, or you get yourself a mortgage to buy that house, the mortgage will be approved based on the valuation of the house.

所以當你買房子，或是為了買房子辦理房貸時，房貸會根據房子的估價來準許。

So if the value of the house is $300,000, you cannot possibly get a mortgage for $500,000 because the bank is taking a risk.

如果房子的價值是 30 萬美元，你不可能拿到 50 萬美元的房貸，因為銀行會承擔風險。

If you are going to default and the house will be sold for $300,000, the question is, who is going to reimburse the bank for another $200,000.

如果你違約，房子只賣了 30 萬美元，問題是，誰要賠償銀行另外的 20 萬美元？

So we need an independent person that is going to appraise and value the house.

所以我們需要一個獨立的第三方來進行房屋的鑑價和估值。

So before 2008, you could basically hire somebody that will basically tell you the valuation that you want to hear and somehow they will justify that valuation.

所以在 2008 年之前，你基本上可以找一個人，他會告訴你你想要的估價，然後他們會想辦法合理化這個估價。

But in 2008, when the financial crisis happened, the government has put regulations in place that in order to have the right valuation, there should be an actual person that will check the house and will give you a more accurate valuation so that all these mortgages will be backed by houses that really represent their value.

但在 2008 年金融危機發生時，政府實施了相關規定，為了要有正確的估價，必須由真人來檢查房屋，並給出更準確的估價，這樣所有的房貸才能由真正代表其價值的房屋來擔保。

But now with this law, AI is going to do the valuations.

但現在有了這項法律，將由 AI 來進行估價。

And if there is a way to manipulate the AI valuations and people will be able to get much bigger mortgages compared to the real value of their houses.

如果有人能操縱 AI 估價，讓人們能獲得比房屋實際價值高出許多的房貸。

And this might actually lead to the exact same consequences.

這可能會導致完全相同的後果。

And finally, Freddie Mac and Fannie Mac couldn't actually back up the mortgages.

最後，房利美和房地美實際上無法擔保這些房貸。

So the question that comes into mind is that why do investors even trust these mortgage backed securities to begin with?

所以大家會想，為什麼投資人一開始就要相信這些抵押貸款支持證券呢？

The vast majority of the mass of the mortgage backed securities are being backed by two government backed corporations which, which is Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae.

絕大多數的抵押貸款支持證券是由兩家政府支持的企業所擔保，也就是房利美和房地美。

They were specifically created to ensure that if somebody defaults on the mortgages, then these two corporations are going to step in and will reimburse them.

它們的設立宗旨就是確保如果有人違約房貸，這兩家公司會介入並賠償他們。

And that's why the risks with these mortgage backed securities are so low.

這就是為什麼這些抵押貸款支持證券的風險這麼低。

And that's why you are getting a much lower interest rate on your mortgage than for example on a credit card debt.

這也是為什麼你的房貸利率會比信用卡債務低很多。

But between 2000 and 2008 financial crisis, these two corporations actually backed way more mortgages than they can possibly afford.

但在 2000 年到 2008 年的金融危機期間，這兩家公司實際上擔保的房貸遠遠超過了牠們的能力。

Which means that if people start defaulting on these mortgages, these two corporations simply don't have the money to reimburse to the investors.

這意味著，如果人們開始違約這些房貸，這兩家公司根本沒有錢賠償投資人。

Which means that investors will suddenly start dumping all of the mortgage backed securities, driving the prices of these securities to the bottom which caused the 2008 financial crisis.

這意味著投資人將會突然開始拋售所有抵押貸款支持證券，將這些證券的價格推向谷底，這就引發了 2008 年的金融危機。

So after the 2008 financial crisis, the government came up with a set of rules that says that now these two corporations from now onwards have to be a lot more careful.

所以在 2008 年金融危機後，政府制定了一套規則，規定這兩家公司從現在起必須更加謹慎。

So they started accumulating a lot of cash 2008 so that if something happens, these two government backed companies started stockpiling a lot of cash just in case if there is going to be another crisis.

所以牠們在 2008 年開始累積大量現金，以便萬一發生什麼事，這兩家政府支持的公司開始囤積大量現金，以防萬一再次發生危機。

They have this emergency fund that they can actually save the housing market.

牠們有這筆緊急基金，可以拯救房市。

But now President Trump is like, yes, you have $200 billion worth of cash.

但現在川普總統說，你們有價值 2000 億美元的現金。

Don't keep that as an emergency fund, but

不要把它們當作緊急基金，而是

use it right now and buy the mortgage backed securities, create an artificial demand to lower down the mortgage rates.

現在就拿來買抵押貸款支持證券，製造人為需求來降低房貸利率。

Now, at first it will lower down slightly mortgage rates, but

現在，一開始房貸利率會稍微下降，但

it's not going to be a really huge decrease so that you can actually get a mortgage for 4% or 4.5%.

不會有那種讓你真的能貸到 4% 或 4.5% 的房貸那樣大幅度的下降。

It might be a slow drop in mortgage rates, probably by 0.1 or 0.2% in the short run.

房貸利率可能會緩慢下降，短期內大概會降 0.1% 或 0.2%。

And it will go back to the exact same level a few months later.

幾個月後又會回到跟之前一樣的水準。

Since now they will be spending the $200 billion they stockpile since 2008.

因為現在他們要把 2008 年以來存的 2000 億美元花掉。

It means that if there is a crisis, they don't have the money to save the housing market.

這意味著，如果發生危機，他們就沒有錢來拯救房市了。

And now put yourself in the shoes of an investor.

現在，試著站在投資人的角度想想。

If you know that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac don't have the cash to save their mortgage backed securities.

如果你知道房地美和房利美沒有現金來拯救他們的抵押貸款支持證券。

Will you trust more the mortgage backed securities or less?

你會更相信還是更不相信抵押貸款支持證券？

Which is why if there is going to be even a small crisis in the market, you're more likely to sell your mortgage backed securities, which could cause another crash in the market.

這也是為什麼，如果市場出現一點點危機，你很可能會賣掉你的抵押貸款支持證券，這又可能引發市場另一次崩盤。

So if you zoom out, what really caused the 2008 financial CRIS regulations so that the market turned into a bubble.

所以如果你拉遠來看，到底是什麼原因造成 2008 年的金融危機，放寬監管讓市場變成一個保麗龍。

After the 2008, we introduced a lot of regulations to prevent such a crisis.

2008 年之後，我們導入了很多監管來預防這樣的危機。

But now, because there is a housing crisis in the United States, which means that most people cannot possibly buy a house, especially young people, we are reducing the regulations again, which is pretty much leading to the exact same scenario that caused the 2008 financial crisis.

但現在，因為美國出現了房市危機，這代表大多數人根本不可能買得起房子，尤其是年輕人，我們又在放寬監管，這幾乎又導向了造成 2008 年金融危機的相同情境。

Does that mean that there is going to be a housing crash tomorrow?

這是不是代表明天就會有房市崩盤？

But if this trend is going to continue and we're going to keep continuing softening the regulations in the housing market, ultimately it is going to lead to the exact same crisis because we're basically repeating the exact same loop.

但如果這個趨勢持續下去，我們持續放寬房市的監管，最終就會導向相同的危機，因為我們基本上在重複相同的循環。

Buying a house is definitely one of the best investments that you can possibly make because it's not just an investment but rather it offers you security, it offers you peace of mind.

買房子絕對是你可能做的最好投資之一，因為它不只是一項投資，它還能提供你安全感，給你心靈的平靜。