Name: 為何以色列要入侵黎巴嫩？！ (Why Israel is Invading Lebanon)
Uploaded: 2026-02-13T17:21:06.000Z
Duration: 46 min 8 s

It is increasingly appearing inevitable that another major war is about to explode in the Middle east that could see Israel launching another major ground invasion of a neighboring country, this time to the north into Lebanon.

中東地區似乎不可避免地將爆發另一場大規模戰爭，這場戰爭可能會讓以色列對鄰國發動又一次大規模地面入侵，這次是向北進入黎巴嫩。

程度副詞

In the span of just a couple weeks between the 17th and 18th of September, the entire mood along the Israel Lebanon border shifted sharply from a low intensity simmering conflict that had been going on for a year to that of a major intensity conflict that increasingly risks spiraling into a devastating all out war.

在短短兩週內的 9 月 17 日至 18 日之間，以色列與黎巴嫩邊境的整個氣氛急劇轉變，從持續了一年的低強度醞釀中的衝突，轉變為一場激烈衝突，這場衝突日益有螺旋式升級成毀滅性的全面戰爭的風險。

情態副詞

It began on 17 September when the Israeli security cabinet officially expanded Israel's war objectives to include the safe return of the around 60,000 Israeli civilians who had been evacuated from a strip of land in northern Israel along the border with Lebanon.

這一切始於 9 月 17 日，當時以色列安全內閣正式擴大了以色列的作戰目標，其中包括安全遣返約 6 萬名已從以色列北部與黎巴嫩邊境一條地帶撤離的以色列平民。

The area was ordered to be evacuated by the Israeli government shortly after the Hamas attacks on Israel on October 7th of 2023 when Hamas ally Hezbollah, based just across the border in Lebanon, almost immediately began firing rockets and missiles into northern Israel.

在 2023 年 10 月 7 日哈瑪斯襲擊以色列後不久，以色列政府下令疏散該地區，當時位於黎巴嫩邊境對面的哈瑪斯盟友希斯堡幾乎立即開始向以色列北部發射火箭和導彈。

In a declared solidarity with Hamas, Hezbollah's nearly three decades long leader Hassan Nasrallah, continually said that his organization would continue firing rockets into Israel until a ceasefire was made in Gaza and until Israeli forces withdrew from the territory.

希斯堡近三十年的領導人哈桑·納斯魯拉（Hassan Nasrallah）在宣佈聲援哈瑪斯時，不斷表示，只要加沙地帶達成停火，並且以色列部隊撤出該地區，他的組織就會繼續向以色列發射火箭。

And since then, over the roughly 12 months that followed without an end to the Gaza war in sight, up until mid September of 2024, Hezbol around 8,000 rockets into northern Israel that resulted in the deaths of 26 Israeli soldiers and security officers and 27 Israeli civilians, along with the evacuation of around 60,000 Israelis from the north that remain internally displaced across the country.

從那時起，在接下來的約 12 個月裡，由於加沙戰爭看不到盡頭，直到 2024 年 9 月中旬，希斯堡向以色列北部發射了約 8,000 枚火箭，造成 26 名以色列阿兵哥和安全官員以及 27 名以色列平民死亡，同時約 6 萬名以色列人從北部撤離，至今仍是國內流離失所者。

At the same time, Israeli forces also repeatedly bombed and attacked targets across southern Lebanon over the roughly 12 months that followed October 7th as well that resulted in the deaths of an estimated 500 or so members of Hezbollah and around 150 Lebanese civil prior to September 17, and

同時，在 10 月 7 日之後的約 12 個月裡，以色列部隊也反覆轟炸和襲擊了黎巴嫩南部的目標，估計造成約 500 名希斯堡成員和約 150 名黎巴嫩平民死亡，時間點在 9 月 17 日之前，

that also resulted in around 110,000 Lebanese civilians fleeing from the south and getting internally displaced across Lebanon.

這也導致約 11 萬名黎巴嫩平民從南部逃離，並在黎巴嫩境內流離失所。

Israel and Hezbollah were therefore already fighting a low scale, low intensity simmering war against the other for nearly a year up until the 17th of September when Israel formally added the safe return of all of its 60,000 citizens back to their homes in the north as a form formal war goal that also included eliminating Hezbollah's capacity to continue firing rockets into the north that have so far prevented their return for nearly the whole of the past year.

是以，在 9 月 17 日以色列正式將其 6 萬名公民安全返回北部家園作為正式作戰目標之前，以色列和希斯堡已經就低規模、低強度的醞釀中的戰爭對抗了近一年，這項目標還包括消除希斯堡繼續向北部發射火箭的能力，而這些火箭至今已阻止他們回家近一年。

And almost immediately as the declaration was being made, Israel decided to begin rapidly escalating its nearly year long simmering war with Hezbollah into something much more confrontational.

聲明發布後，以色列幾乎立即決定開始迅速升級其近一年的醞釀中的與希斯堡的戰爭，使其變得更具對抗性。

The same day as the new war goal was announced, thousands of Small handheld pagers belonging to Hezbollah members that they used for communications exploded almost simultaneously across Lebanon and Syria in a devastating surprise attack.

就在宣佈新作戰目標的同一天，屬於希斯堡用於通訊的數千臺小型手持呼叫器在黎巴嫩和敘利亞各地幾乎同時爆炸，這是一次毀滅性的突襲。

And then the very next day, hundreds of handheld radios belonging to Hezbollah simultaneously exploded as well in another devastating surprise attack.

緊接著隔天，數百臺屬於希斯堡的手持無線電也同時爆炸，又一次毀滅性的突襲。

The combined back to back Hezbollah owned pager and radio explosions killed at least 42 people and wounded around 3,500 others, including many civilians, and

這兩次前後夾擊的希斯堡呼叫器和無線電爆炸，造成至少 42 人死亡，約 3,500 人受傷，其中包括許多平民，

wreaked absolute chaos within Hezbollah's ranks as an organization.

並在希斯堡組織內部造成了絕對的混亂。

Most of the members of Hezbollah carrying the pagers were considered higher ranking members of the group, and

攜帶呼叫器的成員大多被認為是該組織的較高階成員，

scores of them have been left severely injured and crippled with lifelong debilitating injuries that will prevent their ability to fight in the future.

其中許多人受了重傷，終身殘疾，無法再參與戰鬥。

On top of that, Hezbollah as an organization was profoundly and perhaps irrecoverably embarrassed by the operation, with a level of Israeli intelligence penetration into their organization much higher than seemingly anybody suspected.

此外，這次行動讓希斯堡這個組織深感羞辱，甚至可能無法挽回，以色列情報機構滲透該組織的程度遠超乎任何人想像。

Somehow, when Hezbollah began acquiring the Paters around five months before the attack, the Israelis managed to covertly implant thousands of them with miniature remote controlled explosives without anybody in Hezbollah noticing until it was too late.

不知何故，當希斯堡在攻擊前約五個月開始採購呼叫器時，以色列設法祕密地在數千臺呼叫器中植入了微型遙控炸藥，而希斯堡無人察覺，直到為時已晚。

Implying that Hezbollah has a catastrophic spy problem within their ranks that will be difficult for them to root out and that will reduce trust in them as an organization going forward.

這暗示著希斯堡內部存在嚴重的間諜問題，難以根除，並且將會降低他們作為一個組織的信任度。

And at the same time, with the destruction of all their pagers and radios and with the previous Israeli penetration into their cell networks, the attack has severely crippled Hezbollah's communications network as well.

同時，隨著他們所有呼叫器和無線電的損毀，以及先前以色列對其手機網絡的滲透，這次攻擊也嚴重削弱了希斯堡的通訊網絡。

With this loss of faith in technology and no remaining reliable communication network to rely upon for a military response to a war, Hezbollah's only remaining method of communication in the wake of the Pedro and radio attacks were effectively verbal and written communications, which it relied upon for a rapid in person meeting between several high ranking commanders.

有了對科技的信心盡失，加上沒有可靠的通訊網絡來應對戰爭，希斯堡在呼叫器和無線電攻擊後，僅存的溝通方式就是口頭和書面溝通，他們依靠這些來安排幾位高級指揮官的緊急面對面會議。

Only a couple days later, on the 20th of September, in an apartment building in the southern Beirut suburb of Dahia, which Israeli intelligence also somehow knew about because the Israeli Air Force bombed that apartment building as the meeting was taking place, eliminating the top commander of Hezbollah's elite Rodwin force, basically Hezbollah's most elite special forces wing, along with around 10 other high ranking Hezbollah officers in the process, all crippling even more of Hezbollah's leadership structure.

僅僅幾天後，也就是9月20日，在貝魯特南部郊區達希亞的一棟公寓樓裡，以色列情報部門不知何故也得知了這個消息，因為以色列空軍在會議進行時轟炸了這棟公寓樓，消滅了希斯堡精銳部隊「Rodwin」的最高指揮官，也就是希斯堡最精銳的特種部隊，同時也消滅了約10名希斯堡高級軍官，這嚴重削弱了希斯堡的領導層結構。

In the midst of all these attacks, Hassan Nasrallah, Hezbollah's ultimate top leader, declared during his speech on 19 September that the Israeli Pajoran radio attacks amounted to nothing less than an Israeli declaration of war against Lebanon, and

在所有這些攻擊中，希斯堡的最高領導人哈桑·納斯魯拉（Hassan Nasrallah）在9月19日的演講中宣稱，以色列對無線電的攻擊無異於以色列對黎巴嫩宣戰，而且

that while the attacks had dealt Hezbollah a great blow, he also swore that so long as the Gaza war continues, Hezbollah would continue firing rockets into Israel and would prevent the 60,000 Israeli citizens from their homes in the north.

儘管這次攻擊對希斯堡造成了重創，他也發誓只要加薩戰爭繼續，希斯堡就會繼續向以色列發射火箭，並阻止以色列北部6萬名公民返回家園。

Then on the 22nd of September, just a few days later, Hezbollah fired around 115 rockets into Israel again, with many aimed at the major Israeli city of Haifa, representing the furthest distance into Israeli territory that Hezbollah had so far fired rockets into since the conflict began.

接著在9月22日，也就是幾天後，希斯堡再次向以色列發射了約115枚火箭，其中許多目標是重要的以色列城市海法，這代表著自衝突開始以來，希斯堡向以色列境內發射火箭的最遠距離。

Then, after nearly all of them were shot down by Israel's air defenses without causing any casualties, the Israelis carried out an unprecedented, unprecedentedly massive airstrike campaign across Hezbollah strongholds in southern and eastern Lebanon the following day on the 23rd of September that they said targeted Hezbollah military positions and infrastructure.

接著，在以色列的防空系統幾乎將所有火箭擊落，沒有造成任何傷亡後，以色列於次日9月23日在黎巴嫩南部和東部的希斯堡據點發動了一場前所未有、規模巨大的空襲行動，他們表示此次行動目標是希斯堡的軍事陣地和基礎設施。

The Israeli military reported that these airstrikes that targeted around 1300 locations across Lebanon destroyed thousands of Hezbollah owned rockets and missiles, potentially as many as 50% of Hezbollah's total rocket and missile arsenal, according to some Israeli sources, which if accurate, will of course further degrade Hezbollah's capabilities to continue firing rockets into Israel.

以色列軍方報告稱，這些針對黎巴嫩約1300個地點的空襲摧毀了數千枚希斯堡擁有的火箭和導彈，據一些以色列消息來源稱，可能佔希斯堡總火箭和導彈庫存的50%，如果屬實，這當然會進一步削弱希斯堡繼續向以色列發射火箭的能力。

While the Lebanese Health Ministry reported that the attacks on this single day killed more than 550 people in the country and wounded more than 1,800 others, without specifying exactly how many of those casualties were Hezbollah combatants and civilians.

黎巴嫩衛生部報告稱，當天的襲擊造成該國超過550人死亡，1800多人受傷，但沒有具體說明其中有多少是希斯堡戰鬥人員和平民。

But either way, it marked the deadliest single day in Lebanon's entire history since the end of their Civil War in 1990.

但無論如何，這標誌著自1990年內戰結束以來，黎巴嫩歷史上最血腥的一天。

And it also represented near half of all the deaths that Lebanon suffered during the 34 day war that they fought against Israel back in 2006, all representing a major escalation in the intensity of the current conflict between Israel and Hezbollah.

這也相當於黎巴嫩在2006年與以色列進行為期34天的戰爭中所遭受的總死亡人數的近一半，所有這些都代表著目前以色列與希斯堡之間衝突激烈程度的重大升級。

All as tens of thousands of additional Lebanese civilians fled the heavy bombardment of southern Lebanon for their lives to the perceived safety of the capital Beirut, further up to the north.

隨著黎巴嫩南部遭受猛烈轟炸，成千上萬的黎巴嫩平民為了生命安全，逃往北方相對安全的首都貝魯特。

As all of these attacks were just Getting started, on the 18th of September, Israel's Defense Minister Yoav Gallant declared to Israeli soldiers that a new phase of the war on Gaza had begun with a new focus on the northern front with Hezbollah, as he announced the redeployment of the Israeli 98th Paratroopers Division to the border with Lebanon that consists of between 10,000 and 20,000 troops, which joins the previously deployed four Israeli brigades on the border that consisted of between 12,000 and 20,000 other troops and more have continued massing on the border over the days that have followed.

接著，在9月18日，以色列國防部長葛朗特向以軍阿兵哥宣佈，對加薩的戰爭進入新階段，重心轉移到北線與希斯堡的對抗，並調派了由一萬到兩萬名阿兵哥組成的以色列第98傘兵師到黎巴嫩邊境，加入先前已部署的四個由一萬兩千到兩萬名阿兵哥組成的以色列旅，之後幾天，更多部隊持續集結在邊境。

Days later, on 22 September, Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu vowed that Israel would take whatever action is necessary in order to return its 60,000 civilians to their homes in the north, while on 25 September, the IDF's chief of staff, General Hertzi Halevi told Israeli forces participating in a drill in the north near the border with Lebanon, that the previous Israeli airstrikes targeted against Hezbollah were intended to, quote, to prepare the area for the possibility of your entry directly hinting at the possibility of a looming Israeli ground invasion into southern Lebanon.

幾天後的9月22日，以色列總理納坦雅胡誓言，以色列將採取一切必要行動，讓北部六萬名平民重返家園；到了9月25日，以色列國防軍參謀長哈勒維將軍在北部靠近黎巴嫩邊境的演習中告訴參演部隊，先前針對希斯堡的空襲，是為了「為你們直接進入該區域的可能性做準備」，這明確暗示了以色列即將對黎巴嫩南部發動地面入侵的可能性。

And then, on the 27th of September, the Israeli military took the most fateful decision it has probably made in decades.

接著，在9月27日，以色列軍方做出了數十年來最關鍵的決定。

They decided to launch an attack designed to assassinate the longtime leader of Hezbollah himself, Hassan Nasrallah.

他們決定發動一次旨在暗殺希斯堡長期領導人哈山·納斯魯拉的攻擊。

Forced to rely on in person communications, with all of their other communication systems destroyed or infiltrated, the Israelis learned that Nasrallah, along with several other high ranking Hezbollah officers, were gathering together for a high level meeting within their central headquarters buried beneath the ground in southern Beirut.

由於所有通訊系統被摧毀或滲透，以色列被迫依賴面對面溝通，得知納斯魯拉與數名希斯堡高階軍官，正聚集在貝魯特南部地下深處的總部，準備召開一場高層會議。

A headquarters placed directly beneath several apartment buildings above ground, inhabited by large numbers of civilians.

這個總部就位於地上公寓建築的正下方，而這些公寓住著大量平民。

Regardless, the Israeli Air Force decided to launch a massive bombing raid against the headquarters as the meeting was taking place, dropping dozens of highly advanced bunker busting bombs on the area at once that obliterated the entire city block of apartment buildings and Hezbollah's headquarters beneath it.

儘管如此，以色列空軍仍決定在會議進行時，對總部發動大規模轟炸，一次投下數十枚先進的穿地炸彈，瞬間摧毀了整棟公寓建築群及其下方的希斯堡總部。

The attack almost certainly claimed the lives of hundreds of people, including huge numbers of both Hezbollah members and officers as well as civilians.

這次襲擊幾乎肯定造成數百人死亡，包括大量希斯堡成員和軍官，以及平民。

And it most notably resulted in the elimination of Hassan Nasrallah himself, leaving Hezbollah a temporarily leaderless organization on top of all its other mounting issues.

最值得注意的是，這次襲擊消滅了哈山·納斯魯拉本人，讓希斯堡在面臨其他日益嚴重的問題之餘，還暫時失去了領導人。

Rapidly afterwards, fearful of Hezbollah's potential to initiate a massive retaliatory strike on Israel for the assassination of their countless other officers, the Israeli Air Force began carrying out additional major bombing strikes across Lebanon, directed at Hezbollah's known remaining rocket and missile arsenal storage sites, with the goal of racing against the clock to eliminate as many of them as possible before they could be used.

隨後，以色列空軍擔心希斯堡可能對以色列發動大規模報復，以報復其無數其他軍官被暗殺，是以開始對黎巴嫩境內希斯堡已知的剩餘火箭和導彈儲存點進行大規模轟炸，目標是爭取時間，在這些武器被使用前盡可能多地將其摧毀。

And now the entire world is bracing for how Hezbollah and their primary patron Iran, will decide on responding to all of this.

現在，全世界都在關注希斯堡及其主要支持者伊朗將如何回應這一切。

As recently as just a month ago, Hezbollah was widely feared as the most formidable incompetent enemy that is supposedly ever faced.

就在一個月前，希斯堡還被廣泛認為是他們所面臨的最可怕、最無能的敵人。

And that entire perception was seemingly destroyed in only a matter of weeks.

而這種看法似乎在短短幾週內就蕩然無存。

In less than two weeks, Israel completely destroyed and dismantled Hezbollah's communications networks, knocked out thousands of rank and file Hezbollah soldiers with crippling lifelong injuries, destroyed huge numbers of Hezbollah's feared rocket and missile arsenal, and

在不到兩週的時間裡，以色列徹底摧毀並瓦解了希斯堡的通訊網絡，讓數千名希斯堡阿兵哥身受重傷，摧毀了大量令人畏懼的希斯堡火箭和導彈庫存，

virtually annihilated nearly all of Hezbollah's top leadership, culminating with the assassination of their nearly three decade long serving General Secretary Hassan Nasrallah himself.

並幾乎殲滅了希斯堡幾乎所有的領導層，最終連他們近三十年來的總書記哈山·納斯魯拉本人也遭暗殺。

And all with barely a response from either Hezbollah or Iran at all.

而這一切，希斯堡和伊朗幾乎都沒有做出任何回應。

Indeed, Hezbollah has probably been so profoundly shocked by these heavy blows over the past two weeks that they may simply be incapable of responding or retaliating in any significant way very quickly, and

事實上，希斯堡在過去兩週遭受的沉重打擊，可能讓他們感到極度震驚，以至於他們可能根本無法迅速做出任何有意義的回應或報復，

they will need an extensive amount of time to regroup and reorganize themselves with new leadership, new communications and new weapons.

他們需要大量的時間來重整旗鼓，並在新的領導層、新的通訊系統和新的武器下重新組織起來。

As a result, Israel has potentially opened itself up a narrow window of opportunity to invade southern Lebanon with ground forces to push Hezbollah's forces in the area back away from the border by force while they are at their most stunned, disorganized and weakened moment before they can have the time to rebuild and regroup.

是以，以色列可能為地面部隊入侵黎巴嫩南部開啟了一個狹窄的機會之窗，趁著希斯堡最震驚、最混亂、最虛弱的時刻，強行將他們推離邊境，讓他們沒有時間重整旗鼓。

And even though a full scale ground invasion into southern Lebanon may not be desirable, it might still end up becoming inevitable from the Israeli perspective anyway, in order for them to guarantee once and for all that Hezbollah's capability to continue firing rockets into Israel is ended for good.

而且，即使全面地面入侵黎巴嫩南部可能不是理想的選擇，但從以色列的角度來看，這或許仍然是不可避免的，以便一勞永逸地確保希斯堡發射火箭攻擊以色列的能力就此終結。

Because just on the 25th of September, even after all of the punishing Israeli attacks on them over the week beforehand, Hezbollah still managed to fire a ballistic missile aimed directly at Tel Aviv anyway, Israel's largest city, and

因為就在九月二十五日，即使在那之前一週以色列對他們進行了嚴厲的攻擊，希斯堡仍然設法發射了一枚彈道導彈，直接瞄準了以色列最大的城市特拉維夫，

the first time that Hezbollah had ever directly targeted the city with an attack.

這是希斯堡首次直接以該城市為目標發動攻擊。

And even though this single missile was shot down by Israel's air defenses, it still sent a clear message that Hezbollah's capability to continue attacking Israeli cities, including Tel Aviv, remained intact to an unknown extent, giving good reason for any potential Israeli ground invasion into Lebanon.

儘管這枚導彈被以色列的防空系統擊落，但它仍然傳達了一個明確的訊息：希斯堡攻擊以色列城市（包括特拉維夫）的能力，在某種程度上仍然完好無損，這為以色列潛在的地面入侵黎巴嫩提供了充分的理由。

To pause and contemplate the potential consequences you see, ever since October 8th of 2023, when Hezbollah began firing rockets into northern Israel and forced the evacuation of tens of thousands of Israelis from the border, Hezbollah has achieved something that they had never managed to do beforehand.

讓我們停下來思考一下潛在的後果，各位可以看到，自從2023年10月8日希斯堡開始向以色列北部發射火箭，迫使數萬名以色列人從邊境撤離以來，希斯堡已經取得了他們以前從未達成過的成就。

They shifted the buffer zone between themselves and Israel from southern Lebanon, where it had been for decades, deeper into northern Israel instead.

他們將自己與以色列之間的緩衝區，從幾十年前的黎巴嫩南部，轉移到了以色列北部。

A huge and unprecedented victory from their perspective, while also tying up thousands of Israeli soldiers and missile defense batteries in the north that couldn't be deployed to the fight against Hamas in Gaza to boot.

從他們的角度來看，這是一場巨大且前所未有的勝利，同時也牽制了數千名以色列阿兵哥和導彈防禦系統在北部，無法部署到加薩對抗哈瑪斯。

For most of the past year, Israel was hesitant to directly engage Hezbollah over the issue out of fear of escalating the situation into another full blown war.

在過去一年的大部分時間裡，以色列因為害怕局勢升級為另一場全面戰爭，而對直接與希斯堡交戰猶豫不決。

At the same time, they were still actively fighting Hamas in Gaza and thus forcing themselves into an unpredictable and dangerous two front war in the process.

同時，他們仍在加薩與哈瑪斯激烈交戰，並是以迫使自己陷入了一場不可預測且危險的兩線戰爭。

But also over this past year, as Hamas's military capabilities in Gaza have been steadily degraded and as much of Gaza itself has been reduced to a pile of rubble under increasingly tight Israeli occupation, Israel's appetite for escalation on other fronts has begun to increase.

但過去一年來，隨著哈瑪斯在加薩的軍事能力不斷削弱，加薩大部分地區在以色列日益嚴密的佔領下淪為一片廢墟，以色列在其他戰線升級衝突的意願也開始增加。

When the Israeli attacks on Hezbollah began to rapidly escalate with the pager and radio attacks on the 17th and 18th of September, Israel essentially entered into a very high stakes gamble where they believed they could inflict enough pain and pressure on Hezbollah to force them into doing what they want without escalating the situation all the way to full scale warfare and a ground invasion.

當以色列於九月十七日和十八日開始迅速升級對希斯堡的攻擊，發動了呼叫器和無線電攻擊時，以色列基本上進入了一場高風險的賭博，他們認為自己可以對希斯堡造成足夠的痛苦和壓力，迫使他們做他們想做的事，而無需將局勢升級到全面戰爭和地面入侵。

Seen from the Israeli perspective, it has all essentially been an escalate to de escalate kind of a situation with the hope that by hurting Hezbollah's capabilities enough and by causing them enough damage, they can compel them to back down without them deciding to escalate things any further towards a total war that could result in their total annihilation.

從以色列的角度來看，這基本上是一場「升級以緩和」的局面，希望透過傷害希斯堡的能力並造成足夠的損害，迫使他們退縮，而無需他們決定進一步升級局勢，導致全面戰爭並可能導致他們徹底毀滅。

Israel's leaders hope that with increasing pressure and pain, Hezbollah will eventually agree to a separate ceasefire irrespective of what happens in Gaza, agree to pull themselves back away from the border and agree to allow the 60,000 or so Israelis to return back to their homes in the north again safely.

以色列領導人希望，隨著壓力和痛苦的增加，希斯堡最終會同意單獨的停火，無論加薩發生什麼，同意撤回到邊境以外，並同意讓大約六萬名以色列人安全返回北部家園。

But Hezbollah, while badly bloodied over the past several weeks, is still an extremely well armed and now extremely angry and vengeful organization whose leadership, though decimated, has so far still remained completely resolute through all of the pain that they will, no matter what happens, continue to fire missiles and rockets into Israel so long as the war in Gaza continues without a ceasefire and with neither Israel nor Hamas appearing willing to compromise on a ceasefire agreement there.

但希斯堡雖然在過去幾週遭受重創，但仍然是一個裝備精良、現在極度憤怒且尋求報復的組織，其領導層雖然遭受重創，但迄今為止仍然堅定不移，他們將無論如何繼續向以色列發射導彈和火箭，只要加薩的戰爭沒有停火，並且以色列和哈瑪斯似乎都不願在那裡就停火協議達成妥協。

In Gaza, it appears that Israel and Hezbollah are currently playing one of the highest stakes games of chicken in recent memory where the end stage is appearing increasingly likely to be a full out Israeli invas invasion of southern Lebanon as airstrikes and covert pager explosions alone seem that they will not be enough to pressure Hezbollah to end its rocket campaign absent a ceasefire in Gaza.

在加薩，以色列和希斯堡似乎正在進行一場近代史上風險最高的膽小鬼遊戲，最終結局很可能是以色列全面入侵黎巴嫩南部，因為單純的空襲和祕密的呼叫器爆炸似乎不足以迫使希斯堡結束其火箭攻擊，除非加薩達成停火。

Historically, over the past year of conflict here, both sides between Israel and Hezbollah have been reluctant to escalate the fighting towards full scale war for a plethora of reasons.

歷史上，在過去一年的衝突中，以色列和希斯堡雙方都因為各種原因而不願將戰鬥升級為全面戰爭。

Hezbollah was seemingly content with only engaging the Israelis in a limited conflict, tying up some of their resources in the north without escalating to a full blown war that they know Lebanon as a country can ill afford.

希斯堡似乎滿足於僅與以色列進行有限的衝突，在北部牽制他們的一些資源，而沒有升級為他們知道黎巴嫩這個國家無法承受的全面戰爭。

You see, over the past five years, since 2019, Lebanon has undergone what many economists have referred to as one of the greatest economic collapses in all of modern history since the industrial Revolution.

各位可以看到，在過去五年，也就是自2019年以來，黎巴嫩經歷了許多經濟學家所說的，自工業革命以來現代史上最嚴重的經濟崩潰之一。

It began with an unprecedented liquidity crisis in Lebanese banks that started over the summer of 2019 and then gradually escalated with a cascading series of once in a generation catastrophes that all had the misfortune of basically strik all at once.

這始於2019年夏天黎巴嫩銀行出現前所未有的流動性危機，然後逐漸升級，一系列一代人僅有一次的災難接連發生，不幸的是，這些災難基本上同時發生。

Starting with the onset of the COVID 19 pandemic in 2020, then got even worse with the economic fallout from Beirut's infamous port explosion that caused billions of dollars in property damage, then got even worse with the Russian invasion of Ukraine that severely disrupted Lebanon's imports of grain, and

從2020年COVID-19疫情爆發開始，接著是貝魯特港口爆炸造成的數十億美元財產損失的經濟衝擊，讓情況變得更糟，然後俄羅斯入侵烏克蘭嚴重擾亂了黎巴嫩的穀物進口，

then still somehow got even worse with the onset of the Israel Hezbollah shooting war that started in October of 2023.

然後情況又以2023年10月開始的以色列與希斯堡的槍戰，變得更糟。

Because of all of this, since 2019, the Lebanese currency has lost a whopping 98% of its value while the country's GDP has crashed by more than half, while the national inflation rate skyrocketed to more than 221% by 2023 and has remained in the triple digits for years now ever since 2021.

由於這一切，自2019年以來，黎巴嫩貨幣貶值了驚人的98%，而國家GDP則崩跌超過一半，到2023年全國通膨率飆升至221%以上，而且自2021年以來一直維持在三位數。

Simultaneously, Lebanon's public debt to GDP ratio absolutely ballooned to more than 282% by 2022, ranking the country as having literally the highest debt level as a percentage of GDP in the entire world.

同時，到2022年，黎巴嫩的公共債務佔GDP比率膨脹到超過282%，使該國成為全球GDP佔比債務最高的國家。

Even before the current conflict began with Israel in late 2023, the Lebanese economy was teetering on the edge of a full scale collapse and entering into a major war with Israel would probably result in the country falling off the cliff entirely into the abyss.

即使在2023年底與以色列的衝突開始之前，黎巴嫩經濟就已經瀕臨全面崩潰的邊緣，而與以色列爆發全面戰爭很可能會讓這個國家徹底墜入深淵。

Hezbollah and Lebanon have each watched on over the past year as the Israeli Air Force has relentlessly bombarded the Gaza Strip into a veritable pile of r.

在過去一年裡，希斯堡和黎巴嫩都親眼目睹了以色列空軍將加薩地帶無情轟炸成一片廢墟。

While for several years now, numerous Israeli military officials have warned that a full scale war with Hezbollah would include the Israeli Air Force obliterating Lebanon's civilian infrastructure as well, in the hope of turning the Lebanese population against Hezbollah.

而多年來，許多以色列軍方官員一直警告說，與希斯堡的全面戰爭將包括以色列空軍摧毀黎巴嫩的平民基礎設施，希望讓黎巴嫩人民轉而反對希斯堡。

Such an action with Lebanon's already precarious economic situation would be impossible for the struggling country to afford to rebuild on its own and would probably push the country over into the status of a failed state like neighboring Syria.

這種行動加上黎巴嫩本已岌岌可危的經濟狀況，將使這個艱難的國家無法自行負擔重建費用，並可能將該國推向像鄰國敘利亞一樣的失敗國家地位。

And as a major political party within Lebanon that actively participates in the Lebanese government, that's a situation that Hezbollah and the Lebanese people can ill afford.

而作為黎巴嫩一個積極參與政府的政黨，這是一個希斯堡和黎巴嫩人民無法承受的局面。

Moreover, Hezbollah's top supporter for years has always been Iran, who over the past 18 years since Hezbollah's last war with Israel, has provided billions of dollars worth of increasingly advanced rockets and missiles to the group, including many highly valuable precision guided long range missiles that Hezbollah has so far largely kept in reserve.

此外，多年來希斯堡最重要的支持者一直是伊朗，在希斯堡與以色列上次戰爭的過去18年裡，伊朗向該組織提供了價值數十億美元、日益先進的火箭和導彈，包括許多價值連城的精確導引長程導彈，而希斯堡迄今為止大多將這些武器保留在預備狀態。

Both the CIA and the center for Strategic and International Studies have each variously estimated that immediately before the current conflict with Israel, Hezbollah was in possession of an arsenal that included around 150,000 rockets and missiles of various different types, mostly supplied to them by Iran, which made Hezbollah the most heavily armed non state actor in the world.

中央情報局（CIA）和戰略與國際研究中心（Center for Strategic and International Studies）都曾估計，在與以色列爆發衝突前，希斯堡擁有約15萬枚各式火箭和導彈，大部分由伊朗提供，這讓希斯堡成為全球武裝程度最高的非國家行為者。

To the Iranians this arsenal of rockets and missiles provided to Hezbollah became one of their greatest ever insurance policies against a potential Israeli or American attack on their nuclear research facilities.

對伊朗來說，提供給希斯堡的這批火箭和導彈成為他們對抗以色列或美國可能攻擊其核研究設施的最大保險單。

Because if they were to do that, Iran could always just give Hezbollah the green light to unleash that arsenal upon Israel's cities, an enormous volume of fire that would stand to potentially overwhelm Israel's air defenses and cause massive damage.

因為如果他們這麼做，伊朗可以隨時給予希斯堡綠燈，讓其向以色列城市傾瀉武器，龐大的火力可能會壓倒以色列的防空系統並造成巨大破壞。

And Iran would be loath to lose this insurance policy because without it, there wouldn't really be much else standing in the way of an Israeli or American attack on their nuclear research facility, which encourages the Iranians to pressure Hezbollah into at least an amount of restraint in their fight against Israel, on top of Hezbollah's own desire for restraint so as not to plunge Lebanon into an irreversible collapse scenario.

伊朗很難放棄這份保險單，因為沒有它，以色列或美國攻擊其核研究設施就沒有太多阻礙，這促使伊朗向希斯堡施壓，要求其在與以色列的衝突中至少保持一定程度的剋制，再加上希斯堡自身也希望剋制，以免讓黎巴嫩陷入無法挽回的崩潰局面。

And these fears of escalation also extended into the Israeli perspective as well.

對以色列來說，這些對衝突升級的擔憂也同樣存在。

Ever since the last war between Israel and Hezbollah concluded in 2006, Both sides have spent the past 18 years methodically preparing themselves for the next war.

自從2006年以色列與希斯堡上次戰爭結束以來，雙方花了18年時間為下一場戰爭做周密的準備。

And Israel has long been aware that Hezbollah is a far, far greater threat than Hamas has been in Gaza.

以色列一直都知道，希斯堡比加薩的哈瑪斯構成更大的威脅。

The center for Strategic and International Studies estimated immediately before the current war that Hezbollah had around 30,000 active duty armed fighters and another 20,000 more in their reserves that could be rapidly called up in the event of an emergency, which closely matches the CIA's estimate of Hezbollah possessing around 50,000 armed members within its ranks as well, which is also roughly equivalent to the numbers of personnel within the Lebanese government's own military.

戰略與國際研究中心在當前戰爭爆發前估計，希斯堡約有3萬名現役武裝戰鬥人員，另有2萬名預備役人員可在緊急情況下迅速徵召，這與中央情報局估計希斯堡擁有約5萬名武裝成員的數字大致相符，這也差不多相當於黎巴嫩政府軍的兵力。

And in addition, Hezbollah's massive arsenal of rockets and missiles that far exceeds anything the Lebanese government itself has.

此外，希斯堡擁有遠超黎巴嫩政府自身的龐大火箭和導彈武庫。

The group has enormous amounts of machine guns, RPGs, heavy artillery pieces and even tanks, and

該組織擁有大量的機槍、RPG、重型火炮，甚至還有坦克，

is more of a highly trained conventional military utilized by a state rather than a mere militia.

更像是一個訓練有素的正規軍隊，而非單純的民兵組織。

And thousands of its soldiers have extensive and recent combat experience from fighting in the Syrian civil war on the side of Bashar al Assad regime.

而且它的數千名戰士在敘利亞內戰中，為巴沙爾·阿薩德政權效力，擁有豐富且近期的作戰經驗。

Hezbollah's military wing is so powerful and well armed that it's most often considered to be even more powerful and capable than the Lebanese military itself is.

希斯堡的軍事分支非常強大且裝備精良，經常被認為比黎巴嫩軍隊本身還要強大和有能力。

And unlike Hamas in Gaza that is completely encircled by the Israelis, Hezbollah's position in Lebanon can be much more easily resupplied directly from Iran in the event of a full scale war through well established land and air routes across friendly allied territory in Iraq and Syria.

而且，不像加薩的哈瑪斯被以色列完全包圍，希斯堡在黎巴嫩的地位可以更容易地直接從伊朗獲得補給，一旦發生全面戰爭，可以透過伊拉克和敘利亞友善盟友領土的陸路和空路進行補給。

Israel has known for a long time that a full scale war against Hezbollah would be a much more challenging and costly fight than its ongoing war against Hamas has been.

以色列早就知道，與希斯堡的全面戰爭將是一場比目前與哈瑪斯的戰爭更具挑戰性且代價高昂的戰鬥。

And the damage that Hezbollah could potentially inflict on Israel's own infrastructure and cities with all of its rockets and missiles could be catastrophic if all fired at once, giving Israel a high incentive to be cautious as well.

而且，希斯堡可能對以色列自身基礎設施和城市造成的損害，如果一次性發射所有火箭和導彈，將是毀滅性的，這也讓以色列有高度的動機要保持謹慎。

But some other Israeli incentives to be cautious have been steadily eroding with time.

但隨著時間的推移，以色列謹慎的一些其他動機也在穩步消失。

The IDF now occupies large swaths of Gaza and Hamas's military capabilities, while not completely destroyed, have been severely degraded, giving Israel the recent possibility of greater flexibility to devote greater resources to other pressing fronts like Lebanon.

以色列國防軍目前佔領了加薩的大片地區，哈瑪斯的軍事能力雖然沒有完全摧毀，但也已嚴重受損，這讓以色列近期有更大的靈活性，可以將更多資源投入到像黎巴嫩這樣其他緊迫的前線。

At the same time, the Israeli military leadership and the country's Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, are increasingly eager to gamble in order to score a military victory that they can see sell to the Israeli people.

同時，以色列軍方領導層和該國總理班傑明·納坦雅胡越來越渴望冒險，以爭取一場他們可以向以色列人民交代的軍事勝利。

It's no secret that the war in Gaza, going on a full one year of length now, has devolved into a costly and expensive quagmire.

眾所周知，目前持續將近一年的加薩戰爭，已經演變成一場代價高昂且昂貴的泥沼。