Name: 今年慕尼黑安全會議的預期是什麼？「創歷史新低」？| DW 新聞 ('All-time low' — What are the expectations for this year's Munich Security Conference? | DW News)
Uploaded: 2026-02-13T17:04:09.000Z
Duration: 7 min 5 s

to 不定詞

And we want to return now to our top story, the Munich Security Conference, which begins today amid tensions between the United States and Europe.

我們要回到今天最重要的頭條新聞，慕尼黑安全會議，在美歐關係緊張的氣氛中今天展開。

Our chief political correspondent, Michella Kufner, she is in Munich Force.

我們的首席政治記者 Michella Kufner，她就在慕尼黑現場。

Michaela if we go back just a year ago, it was the US Vice President J.D.

Michaela，如果我們回顧一年前，是美國副總統 J.D.

vance who delivered a speech that kind of blew up transatlantic relations as we have known them.

Vance 的一場演講，讓當時我們所熟知的跨大西洋關係整個炸開了。

Now we've got the US Secretary of State Marc Rubio speaking there today.

現在我們有美國國務卿 Marc Rubio 今天在那裡發表演講。

Is he going to put more fuel on the fire or has he come as the fireman?

他是會火上加油，還是來當消防員？

Well, I can tell you as someone standing, you are here essentially at the waterhole of the Munich Security Conference inside the Bible.

我可以告訴你，身為站在這裡的人，你現在就在慕尼黑安全會議的聚集地，在聖經裡。

So this is where everybody needs to go for coffee.

所以這裡就是大家要去喝咖啡的地方。

The talk here is nobody wants to look back, nobody wants to go back to that speech by J.D.

這裡大家都在討論，沒有人想回顧，也不想回到 J.D. Vance 那場演講。

vance where he said there shouldn't be a firewall, where he was basically just days ahead of elections here in Germany, openly interfering, openly speaking out for the far right alternative for Germany and openly, basically telling the Europeans how they should conduct their own democracy.

他說不應該有防火牆，而那時德國即將舉行選舉，他卻公然幹預，公開支持德國選擇黨，並且公開告訴歐洲人他們應該如何進行自己的民主。

First and foremost because it will be Marco Rubio speaking for the U.S. government.

首先，因為代表美國政府發言的是 Marco Rubio。

He's the highest ranking official here and he will have the message that, yes, the old days are over.

他是這裡的最高級別官員，他會傳達一個訊息，是的，過去的日子已經結束了。

I'm sure he's going to launch the odd attack on the Europeans to come up to the table.

我確定他會對歐洲人發動一些攻擊，讓他們坐下來談判。

But let's put it this way, this time nobody can be in shock because the expectations towards the United States have hit an all time low.

但話說回來，這次沒人會感到震驚，因為對美國的期望已經降到有史以來最低點。

Are we expecting a reaction from European leaders, you know, to what Rubio says, positive or negative?

我們預期歐洲領導人會對 Rubio 的發言做出正面或負面的反應嗎？

我的意思是，他們這次必須做出反應嗎？

But let's not forget it will be the Europeans, it will be the German chancellor who holds the opening speech, who sets the scene.

不過別忘了，發表開幕致詞、定調這次會議的，將會是歐洲人，是德國總理。

watts did last time around and the scene setter will and we've had a briefing on this already.

Watts 上次做的事，而定調者將會，我們已經對此做過簡報了。

Clearly a much more independent sounding European leader in the form of the German Chancellor.

德國總理顯然是個更獨立自主的歐洲領導人。

The Europeans know they need to invest more in their own security, but

歐洲人知道他們需要為自己的安全投入更多，但

they also know they fully depend on, on the continuation of NATO's and of course the continuation of the Americans in NATO's.

他們也知道他們完全依賴，依賴北約的持續，當然還有美國在北約的持續。

They've also shown that they're looking elsewhere.

他們也展現了他們在尋找其他出路。

There's the macro saw trade agreement with Latin American states as a huge EU India trade deal that's just been sealed.

有與拉丁美洲國家簽訂的宏觀貿易協定，還有剛敲定的歐盟與印度貿易協議。

And they will listen also very closely to the Chinese foreign minister who will be speaking here straight after Marco Rubio on Saturday.

而且他們也會非常仔細地聽中國外交部長的發言，他將在週六馬可·魯比歐之後在這裡發言。

This is an opportunity for, for the Chinese to also forge new alliances as the Americans have become so independent.

這對中國來說也是個機會，在美國變得如此獨立自主的情況下，也能建立新的聯盟。

Greenland, that was a turning point in how the Europeans see the Americans.

格陵蘭，那是一個轉捩點，歐洲人看待美國的方式是以改變。

I mean, a year ago we weren't talking about Greenland at all.

我說，一年前我們根本沒在談格陵蘭。

Now we're talking about Greenland and we're talking about NATO security, whether or not it even survives Greenland.

現在我們在談格陵蘭，也在談北約的安全，以及它是否能度過格陵蘭事件。

if I'm not mistaken, it sounds like Denmark is wasting no time getting all of its cards on the table with respect to Greenland.

如果我沒記錯，聽起來丹麥正毫不猶豫地就格陵蘭問題攤牌。

Some high level meetings taking place, right?

有一些高層會議正在進行，對吧？

The Europeans are holding a high level meeting here together with the Danish Prime Minister, of course, demonstrating that that support she received over Greenland will continue.

歐洲人將在這裡與丹麥首相舉行高層會議，當然，這表明她在格陵蘭事件上獲得的支持將會持續。

Also that the commitment to dedicate more military resources into the defense of the Arctic, where Greenland has now become, of course, this hotspot for operations not just by the United States, that that will continue and that the Europeans will be doing their part so that there is no excuse for the United States, which can already legally basically post as many military personnel and equipment on that island if it wants to.

So there is also no excuse in the future to start questioning that again.

But also there's a new dynamic in how NATO is viewed and a recogn that talking, at least with the French and the Brits about the possibilities of bolstering their nuclear forces also as part, and

this is also being always being stressed as part of the nuclear defence within NATO is something that certainly the Europeans and the Germans in particular are also thinking about and talking about.

而且，對北極國防承諾投入更多軍事資源，格陵蘭現在當然成了熱點，不只是美國，這會持續下去，歐洲人也會盡一份力，這樣美國就沒有藉口了，美國本來就可以合法地在那座島上部署盡可能多的軍事人員和裝備。

You know, the war in Ukraine, the invasion by Russia.

所以未來也沒有藉口再質疑這件事了。

Now we're talking about fighting four years, maybe going on five years.

所以這裡有很明顯的象徵意義。

Ukrainian President Zelensky, he's expected to come to Munich for this conference.

但同時，北約的看法也出現了新的動態，並且認識到，至少與法國和英國談論加強其核武力量的可能性，也是其中一部分，

We know that the German Foreign Minister earlier today made it clear that Germany stands with Ukraine.

這也一直被強調是北約核防禦的一部分，這絕對是歐洲人，特別是德國人也在思考和討論的事情。

So what can we expect coming out of this?

You know, this, this conference in Munich.

你知道，這次的慕尼黑安全會議。

Is this going to be a chance for Germany to really continue to take the reins and pick up the slack, the perceived slack that's being created by the Americans when it comes to protecting Ukraine?

德國是不是有機會真的繼續掌握主導權，並且彌補美國在保護烏克蘭方面所造成的、大家認為的不足呢？

Well, Germany already is by default the largest supporter of Ukraine.

嗯，德國本來就是最大的烏克蘭支持者。

Now the Americans have withdrawn a lot of support.

現在美國已經撤回了很多支持。

They are more in the business of selling weapons rather than simply providing them, also when it comes to other assistance.

他們現在更像是賣武器，而不是單純地提供，這也包括其他援助。

That's what I'm hearing here from people who are also near those talks.

這是我在這裡聽到的，也是從那些參與討論的人那裡聽來的。

The chemistry between the two foreign ministers from Ukraine and Germany, their allies.

烏克蘭和德國兩國外長，以及他們的盟友之間的化學反應。

German Foreign Minister Vadiful also joined Ukraine's foreign minister in opening an exhibition in Ukraine house just around the corner.

德國外長 Vadiful 也和烏克蘭外長一起，在不遠處的烏克蘭之家開幕展覽。

There's a big shahed drone there, also exhibited.

現場有一架很大的 Shahed 無人機，也在展出。

So he got a real sense of what that threat means.

所以他能真實感受到那種威脅是什麼。

And there is the political commitment to help Ukraine find that just peace that is at the center of the talks.

還有政治上的承諾，要幫助烏克蘭找到公正的和平，這也是談判的核心。

But I also want to mention that that dynamic we had in December where talks took place in Berlin, where the Europeans are at the table, that is somewhat evaporated.

但我也想提一下，我們在十二月時，歐洲人坐上談判桌，在柏林舉行的那種動態，現在有點消失了。

And that's an uphill struggle for the European side to make sure that they are not just informed about talks, but

對歐洲方面來說，要確保他們不只是被告知談判內容，而是

actually sitting at the table and part of the decisions on what can lead to.

實際坐上談判桌，參與決策，這是一場艱難的奮鬥。

To truce or towards at least a cease fire.

Yeah, it's amazing too how things have changed so quickly with Ukraine.

是啊，烏克蘭的局勢變化之快，也真是令人驚訝。

Two years ago we were talking about Germany dragging its feet to help Ukraine.

兩年前我們還在說德國在援助烏克蘭方面拖拖拉拉。

Now, as you just said, Germany leading the way in terms of security assistance.

現在，就像你剛才說的，德國在安全援助方面走在前頭。

Michaela Kuppner for us at the Munich Security Conference.

Michaela Kuppner 在慕尼黑安全會議為我們報導。

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今年慕尼黑安全會議的預期是什麼？「創歷史新低」？| DW 新聞 ('All-time low' — What are the expectations for this year's Munich Security Conference? | DW News)

perceive

absolutely

commitment

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