Name: 股市即將發生什麼事？大多數人毫無頭緒！ (Most People Have No Idea What’s About To Happen To The Stock Market)
Uploaded: 2026-01-15T18:23:46.000Z
Duration: 11 min 16 s

2025 was a great year for the stock market.

2025 年對股市來說是個很棒的一年。

The S&P 500 alone has grown by 18%, which is double than the historical average.

光是 S&P 500 就成長了 18%，是歷史平均的兩倍。

In fact, the moment Trump became the president, he crushed the entire market.

事實上，川普一上任，就讓整個市場崩盤了。

But if you purchase the S&P 500 at the bottom, you would be up today by at least 40%.

但如果你在低點買進 S&P 500，你現在至少可以賺 40%。

But it doesn't matter what happened last year.

不過，去年發生了什麼事都不重要。

What is important is what is going to happen in 2026.

重要的是 2026 年會發生什麼事。

Should you sell your stocks or should you hold?

你應該賣出股票還是繼續持有？

So give this video a thumbs up and let's get right into it.

所以請幫這個影片按個讚，我們馬上開始吧。

The US Economy is becoming a state driven economy.

美國經濟正變成一個國家驅動的經濟體。

The US government has been distributing stimulus checks and right now the economy is being entirely driven by the US Government.

美國政府一直在發放振興支票，而現在經濟完全由美國政府驅動。

On one side you have the free trade, which means that you simply allow the economy to do its thing.

一方面是自由貿易，意思就是讓經濟自己發展。

The free trade is going to fix the economy, is going to fix the market.

自由貿易會修復經濟，會修復市場。

On the other side you have the Keynesian school of economics which suggests that the government should intervene and fix the economic problems.

另一方面是凱因斯學派，他們認為政府應該介入並解決經濟問題。

So if there are trade imbalances, the government should step in and fix that trade imbalance.

所以如果有貿易失衡，政府就應該介入並解決這個貿易失衡。

And guess what has been happening with the US Economy recently?

猜猜最近美國經濟發生了什麼事？

Donald Trump wants to fix the trade imbalance with China, India, European Union and the rest of the world by imposing tariffs and devaluing the dollar.

川普想透過課徵關稅和讓美元貶值來解決與中國、印度、歐盟以及世界其他地區的貿易失衡問題。

The US Government has also been buying massively stocks in the market.

美國政府也一直在市場上大量收購股票。

All that demand, all that intervention by the US Government is fueling stock prices.

所有這些需求，美國政府的所有這些幹預，都在推升股價。

And there is no reason to believe that is going to stop in 2026.

而且沒有理由相信這會在 2026 年停止。

The US government has also purchased a lot of stocks in companies that are extracting rare earth minerals.

美國政府也購買了許多開採稀土礦物公司的股票。

Donald Trump even mentioned that he is going to boost the military's budget to $1.5 trillion.

川普甚至提到他要把軍事預算提高到 1.5 兆美元。

Remember, any government spending is always inflationary, which means that asset prices have to adjust to that high inflation.

記住，任何政府支出都會造成通膨，這意味著資產價格必須適應這種高通膨。

But that also means that that extra 5 to $600 billion that will be spent on the military one way or another is going to boost demand across the economy, shooting asset prices higher and higher.

但這也意味著，無論如何用於軍事的額外 5 到 6000 億美元將會提振整個經濟的需求，讓資產價格不斷飆升。

So you can expect the markets to continue growing.

所以你可以預期股市會持續成長。

Secondly, there are major geopolitical changes and are creating a new world order which is forcing capital from across the globe the to come to the United States and be invested.

二來，重大的地緣政治變革正在創造新的世界秩序，這迫使全球的資金湧入美國並進行投資。

He first kicked China out of Panama, now he is making Venezuela a great ally of the United States.

他先是把中國踢出巴拿馬，現在又讓委內瑞拉成為美國的堅實盟友。

And now the United States essentially has full access to the largest oil reserves in the world.

現在美國基本上可以完全取得全球最大的石油儲備。

He's also threatening to take over Greenland, and he's very serious with that.

他甚至還威脅要接管格陵蘭，而且他對此非常認真。

And now he's trying to also change the regime in Iran.

而現在他也在試圖改變伊朗的政權。

Now, Venezuela and Iran has been the biggest supplier of oil to China.

現在，委內瑞拉和伊朗一直是中國最大的石油供應國。

And by changing the regimes there, that is going to give a huge advantage to the United States.

透過改變當地的政權，這將為美國帶來巨大的優勢。

The US Again will have full control over oil across the globe.

美國將再次完全掌控全球的石油。

The Arctic route is becoming the most important route in the world.

北極航線正成為世界上最重要的航線。

And by taking over Greenland, the United States will control that route.

而且，透過控制格陵蘭，美國就能掌握這條航線。

And that also means that the US Will no longer be relying on China for rare earth minerals, because Venezuela has by far the largest resources when it comes to rare earth minerals.

這也意味著美國將不再依賴中國的稀土礦物，因為委內瑞拉擁有最多的稀土礦物資源。

So on one side, the government is spending so much money buying stakes in companies that are extracting these rare earth minerals.

所以一方面，政府正在花費巨資收購開採這些稀土礦物的公司股份。

On the other side, now it has full control over Venezuela.

另一方面，現在它已經完全控制了委內瑞拉。

And that means massive government spending which is going to drive asset prices higher.

這意味著龐大的政府支出將推升資產價格。

Nobody for a fact knows how the New World Order is going to look like.

事實上，沒有人知道新的世界秩序會是什麼樣子。

And there are hundreds of trillions of dollars worth of wealth all across the globe.

而且全球各地有數百兆美元的財富。

None of these investors want to lose those investments.

沒有任何一位投資者想損失這些投資。

So a lot of that money is going to come back to the United States.

所以，很多資金將會回到美國。

Until there is going to be clarity on how the New World Order is going to look like, there are at least $261 trillion worth of wealth of a lot of that money right now is in the European Union, the uk, Asian countries.

在新的世界秩序會是什麼樣子變得明朗之前，目前有至少261兆美元的財富，其中很多資金現在都在歐盟、英國和亞洲國家。

But what if, in this New World Order, the United States is going to be the only winner?

但在這個新的世界秩序下，如果只有美國是贏家，那會怎麼樣？

And since the dollar is a safe haven, a lot of that money is coming back to the United States.

而且因為美元是避險資產，很多資金都會回到美國。

但這些錢不能只是放在那裡不動。

我們有兩個主要的市場可以投資。

Either the bond market, where a lot of that money is going to go, certainly.

要嘛是債券市場，很多錢當然會流向那裡。

But you can't be making much money out of the bond market.

Last year, the average return was anything between 3.5 to 3.8%.

去年，平均報酬率大概在 3.5% 到 3.8% 之間。

So a big chunk of that money is going to go to the stock market, which last year resulted in at least 18%.

所以大部分的錢會流向股市，而股市去年至少有 18% 的報酬。

That is going to lead to higher demand, which is going to lead to higher stock prices.

這會導致需求增加，進而推升股價。

All the seats in the House will be contested, plus 33 seats in the Senate and and about 40 governorships.

眾議院的所有席次，加上參議院的 33 個席次，以及大約 40 個州長的職位都將接受挑戰。

That means that Republicans, who are right now having a very slim majority, most likely are going to lose those seats because usually the ruling party always loses the midterm elections.

這表示目前席次僅以些微優勢領先的共和黨，很可能會失去這些席次，因為執政黨通常在期中選舉中失利。

So Donald Trump most likely will try his best not to shock the entire economy and create a dynamic where the economy is growing, the markets is growing so that people will have this positive vibe and they will most likely vote for the Republicans if the economy will do a terrible job.

所以唐納·川普很可能會盡力避免讓整個經濟受到衝擊，創造一個經濟成長、股市成長的局面，讓大家有正面的感受，如果經濟表現不佳，大家就比較可能投票給共和黨。

If the markets are crushing, people most likely aren't going to vote for Donald Trump, which is why you can expect markets to continue growing.

如果股市崩盤，大家比較不可能投票給唐納·川普，這也是為什麼你可以預期股市會持續成長。

But even if the Republicans are going to lose their Congress, that's great news for investors, because investors always like when there is a balance of power.

但即使共和黨輸掉國會，對投資人來說也是個好消息，因為投資人總是喜歡權力平衡。

If Republicans are controlling the presidency and Democrats are controlling the Senate or the House, that means that there is a balance of power and there won't be any major shocks to the economy.

如果共和黨掌控了總統職位，而民主黨掌控了參議院或眾議院，這意味著權力平衡，經濟就不會有重大的衝擊。

Another reason to be optimistic is that stock buybacks are not going to stop.

另一個樂觀的原因是股票回購不會停止。

A stock buyback is when the company is earning money.

股票回購是指公司賺取利潤時。

But instead of distributing that cash to investors, the company is spending that money to buy back its stocks from the stock market.

但公司並沒有把這些現金發給投資人，而是把這些錢拿去從股市買回自家股票。

So what drives stock prices usually is supply and demand.

所以通常推升股價的，是供給和需求。

So if the demand stays the same while you use your money to buy back your stocks, which means that you're decreasing the supply of your stocks in the market, naturally, based on the lows of demand and supply, your stock price should rise.

所以如果需求不變，但你卻拿錢去買回自家股票，這代表你在市場上減少了自家股票的供給，自然而然地，根據供需法則，你的股價應該會上漲。

And because CEOs are usually compensated based on the stock price, they have all the motivation to continue growing the stock price.

而且因為執行長（CEO）的薪酬通常是根據股價來發放的，他們當然很有動力去持續推升股價。

Tesla announced a trillion dollar package for Elon Musk.

Tesla 宣佈了給 Elon Musk 一兆美元的方案。

If Tesla is going to cross a 10 trillion market cap, that means that Tesla is now interested to use all that cash to buy back its stocks.

如果 Tesla 要達到 10 兆美元的市值，這意味著 Tesla 現在會想用所有現金來買回自家股票。

In 2020, stock buybacks reached $519 billion.

2020 年，股票回購金額達到了 5190 億美元。

Next year, that number crossed $881 billion.

隔年，這個數字就突破了 8810 億美元。

By 2022, we reached a new record of a trillion dollars.

到了 2022 年，我們創下了新紀錄，達到了 1 兆美元。

Even though that since then, stock buybacks slightly slowed down.

雖然從那之後，股票回購的金額稍微放緩了。

Last year they hit another record of $1.2 trillion.

去年又創下了 1.2 兆美元的新紀錄。

So I don't see a single reason for stock buybacks to slow down this year.

所以我認為今年股票回購不會有任何放緩的理由。

In fact, there is a good probability that investors or companies will see a best investment to make is to buy back their own stocks because they know the real value of their stocks.

事實上，投資人或公司很有可能會認為，最划算的投資就是買回自家股票，因為他們知道自家股票的真實價值。

Especially take the companies that are investing heavily in AI.

特別是那些大力投資 AI 的公司。

If they think that by investing in AI their profit margins are going to boost dramatically over the next couple of years.

如果他們認為透過投資 AI，未來幾年他們的利潤率將會大幅提升。

That means that their stock prices are being traded right now at a lower price than its real value, which means that buying back our own stocks is the best investment we can make as a business.

這意味著他們的股價目前交易的價格低於其實際價值，這表示買回自家股票是我們企業能做的最好投資。

And finally, dollar will continue weakening.

One of the major agendas that Donald Trump put in front of himself is to Fix the trade balance.

唐納·川普為自己設定的主要目標之一就是解決貿易失衡問題。

And you cannot possibly do that if you have a very strong currency.

如果你的貨幣非常強勢，你根本不可能做到這一點。

You need to devalue your currency so that your exports become cheaper, so that you fix your trade balances with other nations.

你需要讓你的貨幣貶值，這樣你的出口就會變得更便宜，這樣你就能解決與其他國家的貿易失衡問題。

And over the last year, the dollar lost about 10% of its value against major other currencies.

而過去一年，美元兌其他主要貨幣貶值了約 10%。

If you take it specifically for example, against euro, then it's about 12%.

There is no reason to believe that Trump is going to abandon his agenda because and he won't continue weakening the dollar.

沒有理由相信川普會放棄他的議程，他也不會停止讓美元貶值。

And you can weaken the dollar by massively increasing the supply of your currency.

你可以透過大幅增加你的貨幣供應量來讓美元貶值。

有兩種主要方法可以做到這一點。

Either you will lower down interest rates, which means that now the cost of capital went down, there is going to be more access to capital, companies, people, everybody will simply start borrowing more money, spending more money, which is going first of all to result in higher spending.

你要嘛降低利率，這意味著現在資本的成本下降了，會有更多的資本可得，公司、個人，每個人都會開始借更多錢、花更多錢，這首先會導致更高的支出。

Another major way to weaken the currency is through quantitative easing.

另一種讓貨幣貶值的主要方法是透過量化寬鬆。

Now, it's basically a fancy word for printing money.

現在，這基本上就是印鈔票的另一種說法。

In December of last year, the Federal Reserve has stopped quantitative tightening and started quantitative easing by injecting at least $40 billion into the economy.

去年十二月，聯準會停止了量化緊縮，開始量化寬鬆，向經濟注入至少 400 億美元。

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股市即將發生什麼事？大多數人毫無頭緒！ (Most People Have No Idea What’s About To Happen To The Stock Market)

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