Name: 阿拉伯聯合大公國在葉門慘遭重擊？ (How The UAE Just Got Wrecked In Yemen)
Uploaded: 2026-01-15T17:40:19.000Z
Duration: 32 min 1 s

情態副詞

For a couple of months, there was actually a brief, brief period of general stability and calm in the Middle East.

其實在中東，有過一段很短暫、很短暫的普遍穩定與平靜的時期，大概有兩個月。

基礎被動語態

In October of 2025, Israel and Hamas agreed to another ceasefire in and around Gaza that was brokered by America around the two year anniversary of the start of their war.

在2025年10月，以色列和哈瑪斯同意在加薩及其周邊地區再次停火，這是美國在他們戰爭開始兩週年左右時促成的。

Which by extension also led to the Houthis in Yemen announcing a pause on their own attacks against Israel and international maritime shipping in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden theaters as well.

這也間接導致了葉門的葉門胡塞武裝宣佈暫停他們對以色列以及在紅海和亞丁灣戰區的國際海運攻擊。

The Houthis announcement had also come on the heels of a separate Omani brokered ceasefire that they had agreed with the United States back in.

葉門胡塞武裝的宣佈，也是在他們與美國達成一項由阿曼斡旋的單獨停火協議之後。

That followed nearly two months of relentless American airstrikes against them in which the Houthis had also agreed to stop their attacks against American and British linked maritime shipping around them as well.

當時葉門胡塞武裝已經承受了近兩個月美國無情的空襲，而葉門胡塞武裝也同意停止他們對周邊與美國和英國相關的海運攻擊。

So by October it seemed that the Houthis had entered into ceasefires with both the Israelis and the Americans, While a separate three and a half year long ceasefire that had begun back in 2022 between all of the various factions within Yemen's own internal civil war was also still holding steady between the Houthis and the country's internationally recognized government, or irg.

所以到了10月，葉門胡塞武裝似乎與以色列人和美國人都達成了停火協議。同時，葉門內戰中各派別之間自2022年開始、為期三年半的單獨停火協議，也仍然在葉門胡塞武裝與該國國際認可的政府（irg）之間穩固地維持著。

No major fighting between Yemen's various internal factions had taken place in years, while the front lines have remained remarkably stable the entire time.

葉門各派別之間已經多年沒有發生大規模戰鬥，前線也一直保持著驚人的穩定。

And with the Houthis winding down their separate external fights against the Israelis and Americans, it appeared to a lot of people that Yemen was finally going to settle down again, most of all to the United States, who's been eager to refocus its attention away from the Middle east to more pressing concerns like Venezuela and the Western Pacific.

隨著葉門胡塞武裝逐漸結束他們與以色列人和美國人的外部衝突，許多人認為葉門終於要再次平靜下來了，尤其是對美國來說，他們一直渴望將注意力從中東轉移到更緊迫的議題上，像是委內瑞拉和西太平洋。

But unfortunately for everyone, the modern Middle east never remains peaceful or undramatic for very long.

但不幸的是，對所有人來說，現代的中東從來不會長期保持和平或平靜。

In the end, it took fewer than two months after the October Houthi Israel ceasefire for the situation in Yemen to begin catastrophically unraveling again.

結果，在葉門胡塞武裝與以色列達成停火協議後不到兩個月，葉門的局勢就再次開始災難性地瓦解。

On 2 December, the Southern Transitional Council, or the STC, a separatist faction in Yemen that ultimately seeks the independence of the former state of South Yemen, but

12月2號，葉門的南方過渡委員會（STC），一個尋求前南葉門獨立的分裂派系，

which had been working together with the internationally recognized government or the irg, suddenly broke ranks with the IRG and launched a surprise offensive against them into the Hadhramat governorate, geographically the largest governorate or province within Yemen that tanks up roughly one third of the country's land, which had previously been split between STC control along the coast and IRG control across the interior.

雖然原本與葉門國際認可的政府（irg）合作，卻突然與irg決裂，並對其發動突襲，進攻了哈德拉馬特省。哈德拉馬特省是葉門地理上最大的省份，佔了全國約三分之一的土地，先前由STC控制沿海地區，irg控制內陸地區。

Co Named by the STC as Operation Promising Future, the surprise offensive against the internationally recognized government rapidly developed into a decisive victory for them.

STC將這次突襲命名為「前景展望行動」，對國際認可政府的突襲行動迅速發展成對STC決定性的勝利。

Within only a week, they managed to completely overrun the entire Hadhramat Governorate.

在短短一週內，他們就成功完全佔領了整個哈德拉馬特省。

And then going even further, they overran the neighboring Al Mahra governorate as well on the border with Oman, representing hundreds of thousands of square kilometers worth of captured territory.

接著，他們更進一步，佔領了鄰近與阿曼接壤的馬哈拉省，這代表著數十萬平方公里的土地被佔領。

And even more importantly, by seizing control of all of these territories, the STC suddenly seized control over about 80% of Yemen's proven oil and gas reserves as well, which were seen as critical for achieving the STC's ultimate goal of secession and a functioning independent state.

更重要的是，透過控制所有這些地區，STC突然掌握了葉門約80%的已探明石油和天然氣儲量，這對STC實現其最終目標，也就是分裂和建立一個獨立運作的國家至關重要。

With their rapid military advances, the STC was able to capture virtually all of the territory that used to make up the former independent state of South Yemen, which was uniquely the Arab world's only communist state that historically used to exist.

憑藉其快速的軍事推進，STC能夠佔領幾乎所有過去組成前獨立南葉門的地區，南葉門曾是阿拉伯世界唯一存在的共產主義國家。

Between 1967 and 1990 before it unified with North Yemen.

在1967年至1990年與北葉門統一之前。

And with their capture of all of the oil and gas fields, the STC put themselves in the position to credibly declare their full secession and independence from Yemen as well.

透過佔領所有油氣田，STC得以有立場可信地宣佈從葉門完全分裂和獨立。

And what's even more incredible, the STC managed to accomplish all of this without any extensive fighting.

更不可思議的是，STC竟然能在沒有大規模戰鬥的情況下完成這一切。

STC troops effectively managed to just march through the two governorates with little resistance from local IRG affiliated tribes and troops.

STC 部隊幾乎沒遇到當地 irg 部隊和部落的反抗，就順利進入了這兩個省份。

The STC reported that just a mere 16 of their own fighters were killed during the week long offensive, while the IRG reported that only 32 of their own personnel were killed.

STC 報告說，在一週的攻勢中，他們僅有 16 名戰士陣亡，而 irg 則報告僅有 32 名人員陣亡。

A stunning figure for how enormous the gains made by the STC are and how categorically this shifted the balance of power within Yemen.

這是一個驚人的數字，顯示了 STC 取得的巨大進展，以及這如何徹底改變了葉門的權力平衡。

The STC likely launched their surprise offensive into Hadhramat and Al Makhra.

STC 很可能發動了對哈德拉馬特和阿爾馬哈拉的突襲。

When they did, for multiple reasons, there had been talk of the Saudis and the Houthis renewing their peace negotiations again after years and years of delays.

當他們這樣做時，由於多種原因，人們一直在談論沙烏地阿拉伯和葉門胡塞武裝在拖延多年後，將再次恢復和平談判。

And following the Houthis ceasefires with Israel and the United States still under unrelenting US financial sanctions, the Houthis were known to be demanding a large share of Yemen's oil wealth and a future negotiated settlement as a means of economic relief.

在葉門胡塞武裝與以色列達成停火協議，以及美國仍面臨無情的財政制裁之際，葉門胡塞武裝據稱要求獲得葉門大部分石油財富，並期望未來能透過談判解決，以緩解經濟壓力。

And so the STC's seizure of all of those oil fields in Hadhramat could have been a way to preempt those negotiations by securing the oil fields for themselves for their own long term secession project.

是以，STC 佔領哈德拉馬特的所有油田，可能是透過為自己確保油田，以推進其長期的分裂計畫，來阻止這些談判。

During a visit to Washington just two weeks before the offensive, Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince and de facto ruler, Mohammed Bin Salman, is also known to have directly asked President Trump to intervene in the other conflict in Sudan with expanded sanctions against the rapid support forces the UAE backed militia in Sudan that the US accuses of committing genocide in Darfur and which is fighting against the Saudi backed side in that country's separate civil war.

在這次攻勢前兩週訪問華盛頓期間，沙烏地阿拉伯王儲兼實際統治者穆罕默德·本·沙爾曼，據悉也直接要求川普總統介入蘇丹的另一場衝突，對阿聯酋支持的快速支援部隊實施擴大制裁，美國指控該部隊在達佛爾犯下種族滅絕罪，並與沙烏地阿拉伯支持的一方在該國的內戰中作戰。

The UAE likely interpreted that Saudi request as a direct threat against their own interests in Sudan, which might have encouraged the UAE to give the STC and Yemen the green light for their offensive into Hadhramat to pull Saudi and American attention elsewhere off of Sudan and more immediately, in late November, Saudi backed tribal forces in the Hadhramaut region began blocking oil production, which sparked energy shortages across the region and particularly in STC controlled areas, which the SDC themselves had to have interpreted as a direct threat to their long term stability.

阿聯酋很可能將沙烏地阿拉伯的請求視為對其在蘇丹自身利益的直接威脅，這可能促使阿聯酋給予 STC 和葉門胡塞武裝進攻哈德拉馬特的綠燈，以轉移沙烏地阿拉伯和美國對蘇丹的注意力。更直接的是，在 11 月底，沙烏地阿拉伯支持的部落部隊開始阻撓石油生產，這在該地區引發了能源短缺，尤其是在 STC 控制的地區，而 STC themselves 必須將此視為對其長期穩定的直接威脅。

By launching the surprise offensive, the STC and the UAE likely gambled on resolving all of these issues and to secure the all important oil fields to safeguard their long term prospects at secession and independence.

STC 和阿聯酋透過發動這次突襲，很可能是在賭博，希望能解決所有這些問題，並確保至關重要的油田，以保障他們長期的分裂和獨立前景。

Yemen itself has been a proxy war of competing outside powers for more than a decade now.

葉門本身已經是外部勢力代理戰爭的場域超過十年了。

The UAE supports the STC in their bid for secession.

阿聯酋支持南方過渡委員會（STC）尋求分裂。

Saudi Arabia supports the internationally recognized government and Yemen's territorial integrity, while Iran supports the Houthis and their separate vision for Yemen's territorial integrity.

沙烏地阿拉伯支持國際認可的政府以及葉門的領土完整，而伊朗則支持葉門胡塞武裝及其獨立的葉門領土完整願景。

All three sides theoretically oppose each other in Yemen, but

理論上這三方在葉門都互相反對，但

for several years the UAE backed STC and the Saudi backed IRG had at least attempted to cooperate together against the Iran backed Houthis, whom they mutually came to view as the bigger threat.

過去幾年，阿聯酋支持的 STC 和沙烏地阿拉伯支持的 irg 至少曾試圖合作對抗伊朗支持的葉門胡塞武裝，因為他們共同認為葉門胡塞武裝是更大的威脅。

Over the years after the Saudis launched a devastating full scale intervention in Yemen against the Houthis that began in 2015, the Houthis have fired hundreds of retaliatory missiles and drones at Saudi Arabia's cities all throughout the conflict, while they've also managed to strike the UAE from time to time as well, including a missile strike in Abu Dhabi in 2022 that killed three people.

在沙烏地阿拉伯於 2015 年發動對葉門胡塞武裝的毀滅性全面幹預後，多年來，葉門胡塞武裝在整個衝突中向沙烏地阿拉伯的城市發射了數百枚報復性飛彈和無人機，同時他們也偶爾能夠襲擊阿聯酋，包括 2022 年在阿布達比的一次飛彈襲擊，造成三人死亡。

Both the UAE and Saudi Arabia want a pacified Yemen that's free of Iranian influence that no longer shoots back at them.

阿聯酋和沙烏地阿拉伯都希望葉門能恢復和平，擺脫伊朗的影響，並且不再反擊他們。

But Yemen is also just further away from the UAE than it is from Saudi Arabia.

但對阿聯酋來說，葉門也比對沙烏地阿拉伯更遠。

Saudi Arabia prefers a united and calm Yemen like it was prior to 2014, while the UAE sees Yemen as just a component in their greater overall strategy to build a ring of influence across the Red Sea and the Horn of Africa to connect to their other allies in the region like the RSF in Sudan, the El Sisi regime in Egypt, Eritrea and the breakaway state of Somaliland.

沙烏地阿拉伯偏好一個像 2014 年之前那樣統一且平靜的葉門，而阿聯酋則將葉門視為其建立橫跨紅海和非洲之角的影響力環網的更大戰略中的一個組成部分，以連接該地區的其他盟友，例如蘇丹的 RSF、埃及的 El Sisi 政權、厄利垂亞和索馬利亞蘭獨立國家。

The Saudis meanwhile, have backed factions in Yemen's internationally recognized government like Isla, an offshoot of the Muslim Brotherhood whose ideology of political Islam horrifies the UAE and why the UAE steadily gained back the more secular STC and their secession project in South Yemen instead.

同時，沙烏地阿拉伯支持葉門國際認可政府中的派系，例如伊斯蘭復興運動（Isla），這是穆斯林兄弟會的一個分支，其政治伊斯蘭意識形態讓阿聯酋感到恐懼，這也是為什麼阿聯酋穩步重新獲得了更世俗化的 STC 以及他們在南葉門的分裂計畫。

So despite their shared animosity toward the Houthis in Yemen, the rival royal families and power in Saudi Arabia and the UAE also came to bat different sides of the country with their own irreconcilable objectives.

所以，儘管沙烏地阿拉伯和阿聯酋都敵視葉門的胡塞武裝，但這兩個王室家族和權力中心卻各自支持葉門的不同派系，各自懷抱著無法調和的目標。

By 2022 put the Saudis decided to remove the internationally recognized government's incompetent president and replaced him with an eight man presidential leadership council to govern the country instead.

到了 2022 年，沙烏地阿拉伯決定撤換葉門國際認可政府無能的總統，並由一個八人組成的總統領導委員會取而代之。

The leader of the council was a Saudi backed politician who favored national unity in Yemen, while his chief deputy was the head of the STC who wanted to partition Yemen between South and north instead.

委員會的領導人是一位沙烏地阿拉伯支持的政治家，他主張葉門的統一；而他的首席副手則是南方過渡委員會的主席，他則希望將葉門劃分為南北兩部分。

They were never going to work together for very long, but

他們本來就不可能長久合作，但是

they also entered into a ceasefire with the Houthis the same year in 2022 that was initially only supposed to last for six months, but

同年，也就是 2022 年，他們也與胡塞武裝達成了停火協議，最初只預計持續六個月，但

For now, since December, when the front lines in Yemen suddenly shifted the most dramatically they had in years between the STC and the internationally recognized government.

目前，自十二月以來，葉門的戰線在南方過渡委員會和國際認可政府之間發生了多年來最戲劇性的轉變。

The immediate questions on everyone's minds were what would the STC do with their conquests and how would the internationally recognized government and the Saudis end up responding?

大家最關心的問題是，南方過渡委員會將如何處理他們的戰果，以及國際認可政府和沙烏地阿拉伯又將如何回應？

Taking the boldest option, the STC was conceivably capable of pursuing their ultimate objective of just unilaterally declaring their secession from Yemen and recreate the former state of South Yemen again, which they had already proposed calling South Arabia this time around instead.

南方過渡委員會採取了最大膽的選項，他們可以追求最終目標，也就是單方面宣佈脫離葉門，並重新建立曾經的南葉門國家，這次他們甚至提議將其命名為南阿拉伯。

In theory, doing this without any outside foreign support would be a very dangerous and risky move.

理論上，在沒有任何外部外國支持的情況下這樣做，將會是一個非常危險且冒險的舉動。

The world isn't kind to rebellious territories of UN recognized countries unilaterally breaking away without the consent of their parent country.

聯合國承認的國家，未經母國同意就單方面脫離，世界對這樣的叛逆領土向來不友善。

Other places that have done the same, like Somaliland, Abkhazia and Kosovo, have faced decades of imposed isolation and non recognition by large swaths of the international community.

其他採取相同做法的地方，像是索馬利蘭、阿布哈茲和科索沃，都面臨了數十年的孤立和國際社會大部分地區的不承認。

Their leaders suggested that after they declared their independence, they would be willing to immediately accede to the Abraham Accords and recognize the State of Israel.

他們的領導人建議，在宣佈獨立後，他們願意立即加入《亞伯拉罕協議》，並承認以色列國。

Their hope was that this offer would have given them the negotiating leverage they needed over the Trump administration to extend US recognition towards their own independence.

他們的希望是，這項提議能讓他們在與川普政府談判時獲得所需的籌碼，以爭取美國承認他們的獨立。

Especially because there's already a major precedent for Trump overlooking international law and territorial integrity before in exchange exchange for recognition of Israel.

特別是川普過去為了換取承認以色列，就曾有過無視國際法和領土完整的前例。

Back in 2020, during Trump's first term in office, he agreed to extend US recognition of Morocco's sovereignty over Western Sahara in exchange for Morocco's recognition of Israel, making the US the first country to ever formally recognize Morocco's occupation of the territory.

早在 2020 年，川普第一任期內，他就同意承認摩洛哥對西撒哈拉的主權，以換取摩洛哥承認以色列，美國也是以成為第一個正式承認摩洛哥佔領該地區的國家。

Trump is well known to want to continue extending the Abraham Accords in the Muslim world during his second term to score more diplomatic victories that he can sell at home.

川普眾所周知，希望在第二任期內繼續擴展《亞伯拉罕協議》在中東的影響力，以爭取更多外交勝利，並在國內宣傳。

And so the STC's assumption that he would probably be willing to extend American recognition of their independence in exchange for them becoming the next ones to join wasn't really that unrealistic.

是以，STC 認為他很可能願意承認他們獨立，以換取他們成為下一個加入《亞伯拉罕協議》的國家，這個想法其實並非不切實際。

And by extension, joining the Abraham Accords would have easily secured Israel's recognition of their independence as well.

而且，加入《亞伯拉罕協議》也能輕易確保以色列承認他們的獨立。

The STC also likely believed that their ability to position themselves as a regional bulwark against the Houthis and their control of nearly all of Yemen's oil and gas reserves would help seal the deal with the Americans and Israelis as well.

STC 也可能認為，他們可以成為葉門胡塞武裝的區域壁壘，並且掌握葉門近乎所有的石油和天然氣儲備，這將有助於與美國和以色列達成協議。

Joining the Abraham Accords and extending their recognition towards Israel would also further position the SDC with their primary backer, the uae, who themselves joined the Abraham Accords and recognized Israel in 2020 as well.

加入《亞伯拉罕協議》並擴大對以色列的承認，也能進一步鞏固 STC 與其主要支持者阿聯酋的關係，阿聯酋本身也於 2020 年加入了《亞伯拉罕協議》並承認了以色列。

Late in December of 2025, Israel also notably became the first UN recognized country to extend their formal recognition towards Somaliland's independence.

在 2025 年 12 月下旬，以色列也成為第一個獲得聯合國承認並正式承認索馬利亞蘭獨立的國家。

Immediately across the Gulf of Aden from southern Yemen, Somaliland unilaterally declared their independence from Somalia more than 30 years ago, back in 1991.

就在葉門南部對面的亞丁灣，索馬利亞蘭在 30 多年前，也就是 1991 年單方面宣佈脫離索馬利亞獨立。

And though they've maintained their independence from the rest of Somalia in a de facto sense ever since, nobody ever took the formal step of actually recognizing it until Israel did just a few weeks ago.

儘管自那時以來，他們在事實上一點點地維持了與索馬利亞其他地區的獨立，但直到幾週前以色列承認之前，從未有人正式採取承認的步驟。

Somaliland is also closely aligned to the UAE.

索馬利亞蘭也與阿聯酋關係密切。

Since 2017, the Emiratis have invested $442 million in developing and operating the port of Berbera and Somaliland, transforming it into a strategic competitor with the nearby port of Djibouti for trade moving through the Red Sea and the Suez Canal, Somaliland allowed the UAE to construct a military base at Berbera as well.

自 2017 年以來，阿聯酋已投資 4.42 億美元開發和營運索馬利亞蘭的柏培拉港，將其打造成與鄰近的吉布地港在紅海和蘇伊士運河貿易方面具有戰略競爭力的港口，索馬利亞蘭也允許阿聯酋在柏培拉建造軍事基地。

And merely days after Israel's recognition of Somaliland, the UAE quietly announced that they would begin accepting Somaliland passports for travel, in essence recognizing Somaliland's sovereignty in everything but name.

在以色列承認索馬利亞蘭僅僅幾天後，阿聯酋悄悄宣佈將開始接受索馬利亞蘭護照入境，實質上承認了索馬利亞蘭的主權。

If the STC was actually successful at declaring their secession from Yemen, then the UAE could have conceivably followed Israel by recognizing both South Yemen's and Somaliland's independence as well.

如果 STC 成功宣佈脫離葉門，那麼阿聯酋可能會效仿以色列，承認南葉門和索馬利亞蘭的獨立。

Doing so would have established closely UAE aligned states on either side of the south entrance to the Red Sea, with the closely UAE aligned Rapid Support Forces nearby in Sudan, which might still ultimately win the civil war there and grant the UAE another closely aligned state along the central Red Sea coastline, along with El Sisi's Egypt and Israel further to the north that are both already closely aligned with the UAE as well to the uae.

這麼做將在紅海南部入口的兩側建立與阿聯酋關係密切的國家，而與阿聯酋關係密切的快速支援部隊也在附近的蘇丹，這支部隊最終可能贏得那裡的內戰，並在紅海中部沿岸為阿聯酋帶來另一個關係密切的國家，再加上與阿聯酋關係密切的埃及和以色列。

All of these pieces on the board, from South Yemen to Somaliland to the RSF in Sudan to El Sisi's Egypt and Israel are all part of a vast long term plan to dominate the Red Sea and its lucrative trade volume in order to secure a wealthy future after the end of oil.

棋盤上的這些棋子，從南葉門、索馬利亞蘭、蘇丹的快速支援部隊、塞西的埃及和以色列，都是為了稱霸紅海及其豐厚貿易量，以確保石油枯竭後的富裕未來而進行的一項龐大長期計畫的一部分。

A future that Saudi Arabia is also concerned about that is pushing both countries to increasingly compete against each other for alternative industries like tourism and AI technology.

沙烏地阿拉伯也對這個未來感到擔憂，這也促使兩國在旅遊和人工智慧技術等替代產業上展開越來越激烈的競爭。

But as Saudi Arabia, the UAE's Red Sea strategy cannot appear as anything else other than an Emirati attempt to encircle them.

但對沙烏地阿拉伯而言，阿聯酋的紅海戰略除了是阿聯酋試圖包圍他們之外，別無其他。

For years, the Saudis have been attempting to do everything they can to make the Houthis accept a power sharing deal in a unified Yemen that would restrict their role in the government.

多年來，沙烏地阿拉伯一直盡其所能，試圖讓葉門胡塞武裝接受統一葉門的權力分享協議，以限制他們在政府中的角色。

Part of how they planned to do that was by offering the Houthis a share in the unified country's oil and gas resources that mostly exist in the south.

他們計畫這樣做的部分原因，是向葉門胡塞武裝提供統一國家石油和天然氣資源的份額，這些資源主要存在於南部。

So with the prospect of the south seceding and taking basically all of the oil and gas with them, the Saudis were facing their worst case scenario in Yemen.

是以，隨著南部脫離的可能性以及基本上帶走所有石油和天然氣，沙烏地阿拉伯在葉門面臨著最糟糕的設想。

Without the oil and gas reserves, the internationally recognized government that they support would almost certainly be too weak to impose any kind of a deal on sharing power with the Houthis in the north.

沒有了石油和天然氣儲備，他們支持的國際認可政府幾乎肯定太弱，無法對與北部葉門胡塞武裝的權力分享施加任何協議。

And realistically, the Houthis would probably just eliminate them and politically dominate the remaining North Yemen rump state.

現實地說，葉門胡塞武裝可能會直接消滅他們，並在剩下的北葉門殘餘國家中取得政治主導地位。

Saudi Arabia would become trapped with a radical Iranian backed Houthi Shiite theocracy directly on their southern border that would be left chronically impoverished without any access to southern Yemen's oil and gas reserves, which is about as big of a nightmare scenario for the Saudis as imaginable.

沙烏地阿拉伯將被一個激進的、受伊朗支持的葉門胡塞武裝什葉派神權國家直接困在南部邊境，該國將因無法獲得南葉門的石油和天然氣儲備而長期貧困，這對沙烏地阿拉伯來說，幾乎是難以想像的噩夢情境。

Shortly after their offensive, the STC announced that they intended to hold a referendum on independence from the rest of Yemen within the next two years.

在他們的攻勢後不久，南方過渡委員會宣佈，他們打算在未來兩年內就脫離葉門獨立舉行公投。

By 2028, while the Saudis were consistently and strongly reiterating that all of this was completely unacceptable to them.

到 2028 年，沙烏地阿拉伯不斷強烈重申，這一切對他們來說是完全無法接受的。

Within days of the STC territorial takeovers, tens of thousands of Saudi backed troops loyal to the internationally recognized government began mobilizing on the new front lines.

在 STC 佔領領土的幾天內，數萬名效忠於國際認可政府的沙烏地支持部隊開始在新的戰線上集結。

While threatening a major counteroffensive, Saudi Arabia demanded that the STC withdraw from all of the territories in Yemen they seized and gave them a week long ultimatum to do so or else.

沙烏地阿拉伯在威脅發動大規模反攻的同時，要求 STC 撤出他們在葉門佔領的所有領土，並給予他們一週的最後通牒，否則後果自負。

The STC consistently refused to withdraw.

The week long Saudi ultimatum passed by and the Orels phase began happening.

為期一週的沙烏地最後通牒期過後，「否則」的階段開始發生了。

At the end of December, the Saudi Air Force launched airstrikes on the STC controlled port city of Mukalla, bombing what it alleged were weapons shipments arriving to the STC from the uae, which the UAE denied.

12 月底，沙烏地空軍對 STC 控制的港口城市穆卡拉發動空襲，轟炸了他們聲稱是從阿拉伯聯合大公國運抵 STC 的武器運輸，但阿拉伯聯合大公國否認了這一點。

The very next day, the internationally recognized government demanded that all UAE troops needed to leave yemeni territory within 24 hours and declared a state of emergency.

隔天，國際認可的政府要求所有阿拉伯聯合大公國部隊在 24 小時內離開葉門領土，並宣佈進入緊急狀態。

And then on the 2nd of January 2026, the internationally recognized government declared that it was launching a so called peaceful operation to regain control of the key military sites that the STC had seized in the Hadhramat province.

接著在 2026 年 1 月 2 日，國際認可的政府宣佈將發動所謂的和平行動，以重新奪回 STC 在哈德拉馬省佔領的關鍵軍事地點。

Within minutes of the announcement, however, the Saudi air force already began launching airstrikes across southern Yemen against STC military targets with confirmed casualties, while a military spokesperson for the STC said afterward that they were now in a decisive and existential war against the Saudi backed forces in Yemen.

然而，在宣佈後幾分鐘內，沙烏地空軍就開始對葉門南部 STC 軍事目標發動空襲，造成了人員傷亡，而 STC 的軍方發言人隨後表示，他們現在正與葉門的沙烏地支持部隊進行一場決定性的生死存亡之戰。

Over the 3rd and 4th of January, troops loyal to the internationally recognized government, with Saudi Arial support, managed to rapidly and successfully counterattack across all of the Hadramat and Al Makra provinces, not only reversing all of the territorial gains that had been made by the stc, but

在 1 月 3 日和 4 日，效忠於國際認可政府的部隊在沙烏地空軍的支持下，成功地快速反攻了哈德拉馬省和阿爾馬克拉省，不僅扭轉了 STC 的所有領土得失，而且

also overrunning the coast of the Hadhramat province and capturing the strategic port city of Vakala that the STC had controlled for years before they launched their offensive on the 4th of January.

不僅攻佔了哈德拉馬省沿海地區，還奪回了 STC 多年來一直控制的戰略港口城市瓦卡拉，而 STC 在 1 月 4 日發動攻勢。

After these decisive takeovers, the internationally recognized government's information minister reported to the New York Times that their next objective could be the STC's capital city of Aden and demanded that the STC's forces in the area immediately surrender as the government reasserts its authority.

在這些決定性的接管行動後，國際認可政府的資訊部長向紐約時報報導，他們的下一個目標可能是 STC 的首都亞丁，並要求該地區的 STC 部隊立即投降，因為政府正在重新確立其權威。

By 9 January, it had become obvious that the STC was essentially a paper tiger and their offensive to seize control over the eastern oil fields had all been a colossal miscalculation.

到了 1 月 9 日，顯然 STC 根本就是紙老虎，他們試圖奪取東部油田控制權的攻勢完全是一場巨大的誤判。

With Saudi backed troops breaking into the STC's capital of Aden, the STC's leader reportedly fled the country for exile in the UAE and hours later the STC's remaining leadership, under immense Saudi pressure, announced that it was completely dissolving altogether.

隨著沙烏地支持的部隊攻入 STC 的首都亞丁，據報導 STC 的領導人已逃往阿拉伯聯合大公國尋求庇護，數小時後，在巨大的沙烏地壓力下，STC 的剩餘領導層宣佈將完全解散。

With the Saudi backed government troops overrunning all of the rest of the former STC held territory, all within the span of just a single month, the STC blitzed across Yemen in a nearly bloodless campaign and it seemed like it was inevitable that they were going to secede and recreate South Yemen again.

沙烏地支持的政府部隊在短短一個月內就佔領了前 STC 控制的所有剩餘地區，STC 在葉門發動了一場幾乎不流血的戰役，似乎他們勢必會分裂並重建南葉門。

And then they just immediately collapsed and fell apart about as quickly under the weight of this massive Saudi backed counteroff, hundreds of fighters on both sides have reportedly been killed since the internationally recognized government's counteroffensive began.

然後他們就立刻崩潰瓦解，在沙烏地支持的反攻壓力下迅速瓦解，據報導，自國際認可政府的反攻開始以來，雙方已有數百名戰士喪生。

While all of this has been greatly exacerbating the rising tensions between the UAE and Saudi Arabia which will constrain both of their abilities to actually contain their mutual foe in Yemen whom they had previously been cooperating against, the Houthis who are now being presented With a golden opportunity immediately after they reach their ceasefires with Israel and the United States to refocus their attention back inward, to expand their own control in Yemen during the chaos.

儘管這一切極大地加劇了阿拉伯聯合大公國和沙烏地阿拉伯之間日益緊張的關係，這將限制他們共同遏制在葉門的共同敵人，他們先前曾合作對抗這個敵人，而葉門胡塞武裝現在獲得了一個絕佳的機會，在與以色列和美國達成停火協議後，他們可以立即將注意力轉回國內，在混亂中擴大他們在葉門的控制範圍。

The Houthis have in fact never before been in a better geopolitical position than they are currently.

事實上，葉門胡塞武裝從未像現在這樣擁有更好的地緣政治地位。

After two years of war with Israel, all of Iran's other proxies in the Middle east have been either crippled or outright destroyed.

經過與以色列兩年的戰爭，伊朗在中東的所有其他代理人都已殘廢或被徹底摧毀。

Hamas is in tatters in the ruins of Gaza.

哈瑪斯在加薩的廢墟中已奄奄一息。