Name: 政治學者來了！關於「革命」，你有什麼想問的？| Tech Support | WIRED Japan (政治学者だけど「革命」について質問ある？| Tech Support | WIRED Japan)
Uploaded: 2026-01-09T18:24:59.000Z
Duration: 28 min 48 s

I'm a political scientist at George Mason University.

我是 George Mason University 的政治學家。

Let's answer your questions from the Internet.

我們來回答大家從網路上問的問題。

Golden Kumquat asks, what is the difference between a rebellion, a revolution and a civil war?

Golden Kumquat 問，叛亂、革命和內戰有什麼不一樣？

Very few people are proud to say they've started a civil war or rebellion, but

很少人會驕傲地說自己發動了內戰或叛亂，但是

lots of people love to say I started a revolution.

很多人都愛說我發動了一場革命。

Civil wars, rebellions, they're often part of revolutionary struggles, but by themselves they're just violent episodes.

內戰、叛亂，它們常常是革命鬥爭的一部分，但它們本身只是暴力事件。

It's the effort to change things for the better that makes a revolution special.

是為了讓事情變得更好的努力，才讓革命變得特別。

Philip is asking, it's a little known fact, but

Philip 正在問，這是一個比較少人知道的事實，但是

did you know the French Revolution was largely about baguettes?

你知道法國大革命其實很大程度上是為了法國長棍麵包嗎？

Well, Philip means that humorously, no doubt.

嗯，Philip 這麼說大概是開玩笑的啦。

But he is right that the French Revolution was largely about the price of bread.

但他說的沒錯，法國大革命確實跟麵包價格有很大的關係。

Shortages of grain and escalating bread prices are one of the main factors that brought French people into the streets of Paris.

穀物短缺和不斷上漲的麵包價格，是讓法國人民走上巴黎街頭的主要因素之一。

And this has been really, really true of revolutions throughout history.

事實上，這在歷史上的各種革命中都屢見不鮮。

We have seen price spikes as an important factor in the Arab uprisings where bread prices reached among their highest level in the early 20th century.

我們看到價格飆漲是阿拉伯起義的重要因素，當時麵包價格在二十世紀初期達到了最高點。

Indeed, governments around the world worry about escalating grain prices because they do know that revolutions often start with the price of bread.

確實，世界各地的政府都很擔心穀物價格上漲，因為他們知道革命常常是從麵包價格開始的。

Elspiral asks, is Nepal having a revolution right now?

Elspiral 問，尼泊爾現在正在發生革命嗎？

One of these Gen Z revolutions have forced the ruler to flee and a new ruler has been put in place with a mandate to create a more constitutional and accountable government.

其中一場 Gen Z 的革命迫使統治者逃亡，並由一位有權力建立更憲政、更負責政府的新統治者接任。

The reason young people are spearheading revolutions in places like Nepal is that they are fed up.

年輕人之所以在尼泊爾等地領導革命，是因為他們受夠了。

Young people are protesting against the lack of basic services, electricity being shut off for hours every day, absence of things like fresh water.

年輕人正在抗議基本服務的匱乏，像是每天電力都會中斷數小時，以及缺乏淡水等資源。

They know that there are better options available and they're angry at governments that have been enriching themselves while doing nothing for the population.

他們知道有更好的選擇，而且他們對那些只顧中飽私囊、卻對人民毫無作為的政府感到憤怒。

Chris Holt one says me, who do you think has been the most significant figure in China since the Shanghai Revolution of 1911?

Chris Holt 一位提問，你認為自從辛亥革命以來，中國最重要的歷史人物是誰？

The hero of the Xinhai Revolution was Sun Yat Sen.

Several decades later, Mao came as the head of the Communist Party and created modern communist China and wanted to destroy anything in China that didn't conform to his communist vision.

幾十年後，毛澤東以共產黨領導人的身分出現，建立了現代共產中國，並想摧毀中國任何不符合他共產主義願景的事物。

So Mao is the creator of of the modern Chinese communist state.

所以毛澤東是現代中國共產國家的創立者。

But for me, the most important person in China since the Shanghai revolution is Mao's successor, Deng Xiaoping, the creator of China's modern economy.

但對我來說，自從辛亥革命以來，中國最重要的歷史人物是毛澤東的繼承者鄧小平，他是中國現代經濟的創立者。

He encouraged cities to sponsor local industries.

He encouraged farmers to improve their efficiency and farm for markets.

他鼓勵農民提高效率，並為市場耕種。

The reason that China today is the second largest economy in the world is because of Deng Xiaoping.

中國今天之所以成為世界第二大經濟體，是因為鄧小平。

He set the framework for for China's economy to grow and grow.

他為中國經濟的持續增長奠定了基礎。

And that, I think, is what really changed China's place in the world.

我認為，這才真正改變了中國在世界上的地位。

Jack C1126 Are there any revolutions that are mostly considered to have been bad?

Jack C1126 有沒有哪些革命被普遍認為是壞的？

Revolutions are the creation of human beings, and human beings are both virtuous and flawed.

革命是人類的創造，而人類既有美德也有缺陷。

However, there may be some agreement that one of the worst revolutions was the Khmer Rouge revolution in Cambodia.

不過，大家或許會同意，最糟糕的革命之一是高棉的紅色高棉革命。

That's where the communist dictator Pol Pot seized power and he unleashed a terrible reign of terror, really going after anyone who had any kind of relation to the Western imperialist world.

在那裡，共產主義獨裁者波爾布特奪取了權力，並展開了可怕的恐怖統治，真正追殺任何與西方帝國主義世界有任何關聯的人。

The Khmer rouge killed maybe 1 in 4 people in Cambodia during their short reign.

紅色高棉在他們短暫的統治期間，殺害了高棉約四分之一的人口。

But other people point to the millions of people killed by Stalin or Mao's famine.

但也有人指出史達林或毛澤東的饑荒殺害了數百萬人。

There are a number of competitors for that title of worst revolution ever.

史上最糟糕的革命，競爭者可不少。

Stalin's revolution strengthened the Soviet Union to withstand Germany's invasion and help helped defeat Nazism.

史達林的革命讓蘇聯變得更強大，足以抵擋德國的入侵，並協助擊敗納粹主義。

And Mao's horrible famines were followed by China becoming the world's second strongest economic power.

而毛澤東可怕的饑荒之後，中國成為世界第二強的經濟體。

So again, revolutions have to be assessed carefully, separate the good and the bad.

所以囉，我們得仔細評估革命，區分好與壞。

That's probably up to the people of each country to decide how they look at their own past.

這大概要由各國人民自己決定，怎麼看待自己的過去。

有紀錄以來最古老的革命是什麼？

We have records from the end of the Old Kingdom in ancient Pharaonic Egypt that seemed to say there was something like a revolution that brought down the last pharaoh of the Middle Kingdom.

我們有古埃及法老時代舊王國末期的紀錄，似乎提到有類似革命的事件，推翻了中王國的最後一位法老。

Ordinary people were dressing themselves up in finery, the rich were reduced to wearing rags, and

老百姓穿上華服，富人卻淪落到穿破爛，

It does seem that the rule of the pharaohs was ended for a while and replaced by some kind of council of new rulers that goes back over 4,000 years.

法老王統治似乎暫時被終結，並由某種統治者議會取代，這可以追溯到四千多年前。

But if you want to ask what is the oldest revolution of which we have a clear, unambiguous record, that would be the founding of the Roman Republic.

但如果你想問，有明確、無歧義紀錄的最古老革命是什麼，那會是羅馬共和國的建立。

In 509 BC, Rome was ruled for most of the 6th century by a series of Tarquin kings.

西元前 509 年，羅馬在六世紀大部分時間由一系列塔克文國王統治。

The kings got more and more tyrannical and in 509 there was an uprising.

國王變得越來越暴虐，到了 509 年發生了一場起義。

We call it a revolution because the Romans didn't just put their own king in the place of the foreign ruler.

我們稱之為革命，因為羅馬人並沒有用自己的國王取代外來統治者。

They created an entirely new government, the Roman Republic, led by senators and tribunes of the people.

他們創造了一個全新的政府，羅馬共和國，由元老和人民保民官領導。

The first real republic in Europe remained the model for city republics.

歐洲第一個真正的共和國一直是城邦共和國的典範。

Nessa Solar Guy asks, are today's conditions in the US similar to any historic revolutions?

Nessa Solar Guy 問，美國今天的狀況和任何歷史上的革命相似嗎？

A lot of the Maga followers claim that they're having a revolution.

許多 Maga 的追隨者聲稱他們正在進行一場革命。

They're going to transform America's government.

They want to create an America in which the President is the all powerful embodiment of the national will and in which the government ceases to be this large protected organization.

他們想要創造一個總統是國家意志的化身，政府不再是個龐大受保護的組織的美國。

We talk about checks and balances to prevent any single person from gaining excessive power.

我們談論制衡，以防止任何人獲得過度的權力。

The institutions that we've had have largely failed for a lot of Americans.

我們現有的許多制度，對許多美國人來說都已經失敗了。

It turns out that if you look at the real wages of non college educated men, they've fallen over the last 40 years.

結果發現，如果你看看沒有大學學歷男性的實質薪資，過去40年來一直在下降。

And so it's understandable that people feel they're being left behind.

所以人們覺得自己被拋在後面，這是可以理解的。

During the COVID crisis, it seemed like the government couldn't speak with one voice.

在 COVID 危機期間，政府似乎無法統一發聲。

And so again, people felt the government's not protecting us.

所以，人們又覺得政府沒有保護我們。

So many people have just come to believe that America's democracy is just serving a small corrupt elite and is not looking out for ordinary American men and women.

所以很多人就開始相信，美國的民主根本就是在為少數腐敗的菁英服務，根本沒有在顧慮一般的美國男女。

Now that is exactly the belief that gives rise to revolutionary situations.

而這種想法，正是會引發革命局面的原因。

So it doesn't surprise me that we're seeing mobilize against the government, calling for it to be dismantled, calling for Democrats to be seen as enemies, or for Democrats to say that Republicans are trying to dismantle and overthrow the government.

所以，我們看到有人動員起來反對政府，要求政府被解散，要求民主黨人被視為敵人，或者民主黨人說共和黨人試圖解散並推翻政府，這點我一點都不意外。

That is to say, I don't think America's political institutions have been completely or permanently changed, but

也就是說，我不認為美國的政治制度已經完全或永久地改變了，但是

we're very much in a revolutionary situation.

我們正處在一個非常革命的局面。

A question from the Anarchy 101 subreddit.

這是來自 Anarchy 101 的一個問題。

Can there be a revolution without violence?

Nonviolent revolutions have become much more common in the last quarter century.

在過去的二十五年裡，非暴力的革命變得越來越普遍。

They need to persuade military officers and soldiers that the revolutionaries are a more virtuous group representing the country, while the government that they are sworn to defend is actually a threat to the country and is really in it for itself.

他們需要說服軍官和阿兵哥，革命者才是代表國家的更優秀群體，而他們誓死效忠的政府實際上對國家構成威脅，並且只顧自己。

The key is persuading the military to support the revolution.

所以，是的，非暴力抗議是可以成功的。

That said, it's hard to have a purely nonviolent revolution simply because human nature is such that once emotions get stirred, some people are likely to turn to throwing bricks or even burning government buildings.

不過，要實現純粹的非暴力革命是很難的，因為人性使然，一旦情緒被煽動起來，有些人很可能會開始丟磚頭，甚至燒毀政府建築。

And of course, if government troops fire on crowds, you're going to have some deaths as well.

當然，如果政府軍隊向人群開槍，也會造成一些死亡。

What's really critical is whether that violence overwhelms the peaceful protest.

真正關鍵的是，暴力是否會壓倒和平抗議。

Often if the violence becomes dominant, that discredits the revolutionaries and the military may feel more impelled to defend the government.

通常，如果暴力成為主流，就會讓革命者聲名掃地，軍隊也可能會覺得更有義務保衛政府。

So it's a bit of a delicate balance and one of the tasks that nonviolent revolutions face is keeping to the nonviolent path.

所以這是一個微妙的平衡，非暴力革命面臨的任務之一就是堅持非暴力路線。

Where do you think the next world historic revolution will happen?

你認為下一次世界歷史性的革命會發生在哪裡？

I think Brazil, the reconstituted party there, is doing really stupendous work.

我覺得巴西，那裡的重組政黨，正在做非常了不起的工作。

I don't think Brazil will be the next world changing revolution for the same reason that the American Revolution wasn't world changing.

我認為巴西不會是下一次改變世界的革命，原因跟美國革命沒有改變世界一樣。

That is Brazil is not centrally positioned right now in the world's global economy or politics.

那就是巴西目前在全球經濟或政治上沒有處於中心位置。

If there is a world changing revolution, I think it's going to come in China, which is the last great communist power.

如果有改變世界的革命，我認為會發生在中國，那是最後一個偉大的共產主義強權。

Xi Jinping is leading a country that's running into economic and demographic problems.

習近平領導的國家正遭遇經濟和人口問題。

The economy is weakening, growth is slowing, people are hardly having children, and

經濟正在走弱，成長正在放緩，人們幾乎不生小孩，而且

that means China's workforce is going to decline quite a lot in the next 20 or 30 years.

這意味著中國的勞動力在未來20到30年內將大幅下降。

So the combination of an increasingly kind of autocratic one man rule and an economy that is faltering and where people don't have faith in the future, that's a combination that has often led to revolutionary rebellion.

所以，一種越來越專制的個人統治，加上一個搖搖欲墜的經濟，人們對未來沒有信心，這種組合經常會導致革命性的叛亂。

Sometime in the next 10 years, it's possible that the Chinese people will ask for a more accountable, a more democratic government.

在未來10年內的某個時候，中國人民有可能會要求一個更負責、更民主的政府。

And if that happens, that would have probably the greatest implications for the world of any revolution since the Chinese Revolution in 1949.

如果真的發生了，那將會是自1949年中國革命以來，對世界影響最大的革命。

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政治學者來了！關於「革命」，你有什麼想問的？| Tech Support | WIRED Japan (政治学者だけど「革命」について質問ある？| Tech Support | WIRED Japan)

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