Name: 天津2010--（電視辯論會天津電視臺）反思全球復甦。來自中國的觀點 (Tianjin 2010 - (TV Debate Tianjin TV) Rethinking the Global Recovery: The View from China)
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Ladies and gentleman, distinguished guests, good afternoon.

情態副詞

This is a TV debate jointly sponsored by Tianjin TV Station and Phoenix

Satellite TV. Ladies and gentlemen, good afternoon.

Well, I was reminded back to September the 15th,

2008. At that time that was the financial crisis… went bankrupt.

Well, precisely, we are two years later from that date.

anniversary. However, I think we should divide

today’s issues into opportunities and challenges and we are talking about

post-crisis age. What are the challenges in front of us?

Well, we’re already encountered challenges but we have more to come.

So one of the issues in front of us is, are we welcoming a brighter future

or a darker future? Before we invite our five panelists,

let’s watch the big screen and look at the current status of our economy.

Having come through rescue plans it seems that the worldwide economy is now

in a recovery road. This also includes the four trillion

RMB in economics dues, luminous package of the Chinese governments at the end

of 2008 which contributed to 8.7 percent of China’s GDP growth in 2009.

In the first half of 2010, China’s GDP grew by 11.1 percent leading to

a robust economic growth. It is true that the signs of economic

recovery are already there in some countries.

However, United States and other western economies still grew in a slow

In the first quarter of this year, GDP grew by 3.7 percent, in the second

quarter 1.6 percent, and as of July its unemployment rate reached 16.5 percent.

It is fair to say that the concerns for a second economic dip is over

and countries are looking for new growth points.

However, the world economy is still facing many challenges including new

issues in China’s economic recovery such as resistance in export

overheating in investment, slow growth in domestic demand, a vague picture in

the real estate market and concerns about stimulus policy and inflation

after two years anniversary of economic crisis looking back on the global

economic recovery. Is China already on this recovery

facilitate its own economic growth? Welcome to TV Debate of Tianjin TV

and Phoenix TV. Well, we’ve all heard of these

questions from the video clips. That is precisely why we are having

this TV debate. Let us once again warmly welcome the

five distinguished panelists. First, Mr. Cheng Siwei, Chairman of

International Finance Forum. Second, Professor Li Daokui,

Director from Center for China in the World Economy Tsinghua University.

Mr. Liu Changle, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer from Phoenix

Satellite TV Hong Kong SAR. Mr. Jack Ma Yun, Chairman and Chief

Executive Officer, Alibaba Group, People’s Republic of China.

And Mr. Yu Rumin, Chairman of the Board, Tianjin Port Company.

Welcome in our TV debate. So to start with, let me have an

interaction with you. Before we ask our questions on our

distinguished panelists, let me give you a test.

Two years ago we heard a saying that confidence is more important than gold

at any times. In today’s context, what’s your

confidence about the worldwide economy? Do you think that in the short round,

is it possible for the world economy to fall into a second dip?

one. Second dip. Others seem to be more optimistic so

where does the concern come from? Mr. Cheng, we noticed that five and six

of the audience are still concerned. They are still afraid of a second

round of economic dip. But I think that two years ago you’ve

mentioned at a global forum that the international financial crisis will be

over after another two to three years. So you think that 2011 will show a new

start? Now, two years later, do you still hold

the same view? Yes, we all know that China’s economy

is growing in a robust way and this year we are transforming from a special

state out of financial crisis into a normal stage.

If we look around the world, I am a cautious optimist.

In my view the world economy is right now in a challenging and testing road

of recovery. In other words, there are still

uncertainties, but, on the whole, the world economy will return back to

recovery. Now, the biggest challenge in front of

us is, of course, first, that crisis, sovereignty debt crisis in European

countries, but, in my view, that would not lead to a second global economic

dip. However, as some countries need more

borrowing, that will slow down the rate of European of recovery.

Second, there are still uncertainties and instabilities in the U.S. economy.

Of course, U.S. is under debt pressure but U.S. is a large economy and people

are still borrowing money to the U.S. So it seems to be that there is not

such a huge debt crisis for the U.S. However, its unemployment rate

and other issues are yet to be resolved and coupled with political factors and the

issues of middle term election, there are still uncertainties in the U.S.

economy. All of these add up to certain global

Thank you, Chairman Cheng. Chairman Cheng said that in the future

he is confident but he’s still observing.

Apart from the U.S. economic recovery he is also interested in what are

European Union has gone through its economic crisis.

And before raising the question to Professor Li, let’s look at the big

screen. People say that statistics matter most.

So can you conclude from the statistics that we can be confident the

Through these statistics, I think Professor Li knows better than I do.

This is a PMI comparative diagram that we noticed that on this diagram there

are figures of China, E.U., U.S., and Japan.

Almost all of them have a PMI of over 50 percent.

It is a clear proof that confidence from consumers and investors is getting

back. However, there is one regret about this

diagram because it only talks about China, but China is not the only one on

the recovery road. China and a large number of emerging

markets are already on healthy road of development which was quite rare in the

previous ten years. Those countries will be strong motive

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天津2010--（電視辯論會天津電視臺）反思全球復甦。來自中國的觀點 (Tianjin 2010 - (TV Debate Tianjin TV) Rethinking the Global Recovery: The View from China)

crisis

increase

interest

rate