Name: 這會是烏克蘭的轉捩點嗎？｜長遠佈局 (Is This Ukraine’s Turning Point? | The Long Game)
Uploaded: 2025-11-22T17:03:45.000Z
Duration: 59 min 7 s

情態副詞

To call it a peace plan is probably a misnomer.

說它是和平計畫，可能有點名不符實。

程度副詞

It's really basically a repackaging of Russia's demands that they have had since the start of the war.

這基本上就是俄羅斯從戰爭一開始就提出的要求，只是換了個包裝。

You know, corruption in Ukraine is a major problem.

你知道，烏克蘭的腐敗是個大問題。

We wrestled with this problem day in, day out during the course of of our administration.

在我們政府執政期間，我們每天都在處理這個問題。

We are seeing in living color, out of the mouths of Trump administration officials, a cry, a raising of a red flag that says, hey, we're in trouble on the cyber front because we've sent all our people to work on the immigration front.

我們親眼看到，川普政府的官員們發出一個警訊，說，嘿，我們在網路戰線上面臨麻煩，因為我們把所有人都派去處理移民事務前線了。

What we're talking about, bas, basically, is, I think, the largest overhaul of the national security bureaucracy that we have had since 9 11.

我們現在談論的，我認為，是自九一一事件以來，對國家安全官僚體系最大規模的改革。

From the Vox Media podcast network, this is the long Game.

來自 Vox Media 播客網絡，這是 the long Game。

John, where are you coming to us from today?

Well, I happen to be in Singapore, and it's a strange feeling.

我碰巧在新加坡，感覺有點奇妙。

I can see just behind you looking out your window.

What looks like the New England countryside is where I grew up.

那看起來像新英格蘭鄉村的地方，是我長大的地方。

I'm in Concord, New Hampshire, a place you know well, since you are the product of Hanover High School and New Hampshire sports.

我在麻州康考德，一個你很熟悉的地方，因為你畢業於漢諾威高中，而且是新罕布夏州運動員。

And this was the site of some of your great youthful glories.

這也是你年輕時許多輝煌時刻的發生地。

大勝、大敗、激烈的競爭，還有

happy that you've moved to New England, finally seen the light, and

很高興你搬到新英格蘭，終於看到光明瞭，而且

adopted a worthwhile part of the country to be hanging out.

選擇了國家裡一個很棒的地方來居住。

So when I look out my window right now, I see stick season.

所以我現在從窗戶望出去，看到的是枯枝季節。

The leaves are off the trees, but the snow hasn't fallen yet.

I now have a good sense of what stick season is, although I think he was talking about Vermont, not New Hampshire, but

我現在對枯枝季節有很好的認識了，雖然我覺得他講的是佛蒙特州，不是新罕布夏州，但

Possible that he's the most famous graduate of my high school.

他很有可能是我們高中畢業的最有名的校友。

And that's not a bad one to have, actually.

Well, we now have two episodes under our belt.

好了，我們現在已經完成了兩集節目。

We'll have an opportunity to do something we don't always get to do, which is check our own homework.

我們有機會做一件我們平常比較少做的事，那就是檢查一下我們自己的功課。

Last week, we previewed a bit Mohammed bin Salman's visit to Washington, which took place this week.

上週，我們稍微預告了沙烏地阿拉伯王儲穆罕默德·沙爾曼本週的華盛頓訪問行程。

So we'll check in on how we did in setting that up and how the president and Mohammed bin Salman did in actually conducting that meeting and what came out of it.

所以我們會來看看我們在安排這件事上做得如何，以及總統和穆罕默德·沙爾曼在實際進行這次會談時表現如何，還有達成了什麼成果。

We'll also talk a little bit about what could be a pretty consequential week, I think, in the Russia, Ukraine war, where you have a confluence of a couple of things.

我們也會稍微聊聊，我認為這會是俄烏戰爭中一個相當重要的星期，因為有幾件事同時發生。

An emerging corruption scandal in Ukraine and then an effort by the Trump administration to launch another attempt to make peace between the two parties.

烏克蘭出現了一個新興的腐敗醜聞，然後川普政府正努力再次嘗試在雙方之間達成和平。

And then we're gonna do a tabletop exercise that kind of serves as a snapshot of how the national security apparatus of the United States is dealing with the fact that the Trump administration has basically moved a huge amount of it to work on immigration enforcement, immigration roundups, rather than what their core jobs were in law enforcement or cybersecurity.

接著，我們會做一個桌面演練，這有點像是美國國家安全官僚體系如何應對川普政府基本上將其中很大一部分人力轉移去處理移民執法、移民圍捕，而不是他們原本在執法或網路戰線上的核心工作。

I'll jump in on the first topic here, which is MBS's visit, which, as you said, we previewed last week.

我先來聊第一個話題，也就是 MBS 的訪問，就像你說的，我們上週已經預告過了。

And I guess what I would start by saying is just to talk about the imagery there in the Oval Office.

我想我會先從談談橢圓形辦公室裡的畫面開始。

You know, if you had shown me a photo 5, 10 years ago of the President and the putative leader of Saudi Arabia standing in front of this golden adorned backdrop, I would have said they were in Riyadh, not in Washington, D.C.

如果你給我看一張 5、10 年前，總統和沙烏地阿拉伯的潛在領導人站在這個金碧輝煌的背景前的照片，我會說他們在利雅德，而不是在華盛頓特區。

we have an extremely respected man in the Oval Office today and a friend of mine for a long time, a very good friend of mine, and

我們今天在橢圓形辦公室裡有一位備受尊敬的人，他也是我認識很久的好朋友，一位非常好的朋友，

我為他所做的一切感到非常驕傲。

What he's done is incredible in terms of human rights and everything else.

他在人權和所有其他方面所做的事情都令人難以置信。

But somehow President Trump has turned the Oval Office into quite the shiny place.

但不知何故，川普總統把橢圓形辦公室變成了一個相當閃亮的地方。

It looks almost unrecognizable from when we were there just a year ago.

和我們一年前剛去過的時候相比，這裡幾乎認不出來了。

And they stood there right in front of the press and President Trump held forth about how much he loves mbs, how much he loves Saudi Arabia.

他們就站在媒體面前，川普總統大談他有多愛 MBS，有多愛沙烏地阿拉伯。

And then there was this quite striking moment where a reporter asked about the murder of Jamal Khashoggi.

然後有個非常令人驚訝的時刻，一位記者問起了賈邁勒·卡舒吉的謀殺案。

President Trump jumped in and basically said things happen, and

川普總統插話進來，基本上說「事情就是會發生」，然後

then went on to kind of berate the reporter.

Before we get into the substance and kind of a little bit grade our homework of how we set this up in the preview.

在我們深入探討實質內容，以及稍微檢討一下我們在預告中是如何安排這一切之前。

John, what do you make of just this spectacle in the Oval, the complexity of this relationship, the personal dealings between these two guys?

John，你對橢圓形辦公室裡的這種場面、這種關係的複雜性，以及這兩個人之間的個人交往有什麼看法？

What was your reaction when you watched all this go down?

你看到這一切發生時有什麼反應？

One is, in addition to the new adornments that the President has made to the Oval Office, there's another big difference about how they kind of conduct their business when they have foreign visitors, which is the traditional appearance in front of the press in the Oval Office is a pretty scripted, pretty rote, pretty simplistic affair where, you know, one side, the hosts, the President welcomes, the other, says how happy he is to have the visitor there.

一是，除了總統對橢圓形辦公室進行的新裝飾之外，他們接待外國訪客時的行事方式也有另一個很大的不同，那就是在橢圓形辦公室裡傳統上與媒體見面，通常是個相當照本宣科、相當例行、相當簡單的場合，你知道，一方，也就是主人，總統會表示歡迎，另一方則會說他很高興有貴賓到訪。

The visitor expresses gratitude for being hosted, and they kind of get on with their lives.

訪客會表達感謝，然後他們就照常進行自己的事務。

Maybe there's a word or two about policy.

President Trump does this in a very different way.

These appearances in front of the cameras in the Oval Office before the meeting has even taken place can last an hour.

在會議還沒開始前，在橢圓形辦公室裡這些面對鏡頭的場合，可以持續一個小時。

And often the biggest news of these visits comes out of this somewhat impromptu back and forth with the press.

而且，這些拜訪中最大的新聞，常常就來自於跟媒體這種有點即興的來回問答。

And that was the case for this meeting, as you said.

正如你所說，這次會面也是如此。

There was this pretty heated exchange, by the way.

順帶一提，當時的氣氛相當火爆。

The president didn't just say things happen, he actually sort of blamed the victim.

總統不只是說事情發生了，他其實有點在責怪受害者。

You're mentioning somebody that was extremely controversial.

你提到的是一個極具爭議性的人物。

A lot of people didn't like that gentleman that you're talking about.

很多人都不喜歡你說的那位先生。

Whether you like him or didn't like him, things happen, but he knew nothing about it, and

不管你喜不喜歡他，事情就是發生了，而他對此一無所知，

You don't have to embarrass our guests by asking a question like that.

你不必問那樣的問題來讓我們的來賓難堪。

Quite something striking and I think, you know, just pretty appalling in a lot of ways.

相當令人震驚，我認為，你知道，在很多方面都令人 appall。

But this relationship, as you said, is a super complicated one.

但正如你所說，這種關係非常複雜。

You know, we wrestled with it during the course of our administration.

你知道，我們在政府任期內對此進行了處理。

I think ultimately got to a place where we could work constructively with Saudi Arabia, having taken some actions against them in the wake of this killing.

我認為最終我們能夠與沙烏地阿拉伯建設性地合作，在這次殺戮事件之後對他們採取了一些行動。

President Trump, as we said last week, has just had a fundamentally different approach, never really acknowledging that there was any wrongdoing on the part of the Saudis, let alone on the part of mbs.

正如我們上週所說，川普總統採取了根本不同的做法，從未真正承認沙烏地阿拉伯有任何不當行為，更不用說 MBS 了。

And in this case, going one step further and actually saying, you know, the guy kind of had it coming, which is a wild statement from the President of the United States, you know, just to spend one more minute on what it's like preparing for these Oval Office meetings.

在這個案例中，更進一步，實際上說，你知道，那個人活該，這是一個來自美國總統的瘋狂聲明，你知道，只是花一分鐘談談準備橢圓形辦公室會議是什麼樣的。

The press coming in, the president, the guests making comments, press going out.

媒體進場、總統、貴賓發表評論、媒體離場。

It was the tradition through multiple administrations.

這項傳統貫穿了多個政府時期。

And that's how President Biden approached it as well.

This kind of freewheeling circus that Trump does.

這種川普式的隨心所欲的馬戲團。

It's gotta be especially hard for authoritarian leaders who are not actually used to facing the press.

對於不習慣面對媒體的威權領導人來說，這一定特別難。

I remember in our administration when Prime Minister Modi came, who's not an authoritarian, technically, is a democratically elected leader, but

我記得在我們政府任內，莫迪總理來訪時，他雖然不是威權領導人，技術上來說，他是民選領袖，但

with some authoritarian tendencies that he had not taken a question from the press in a press conference in several years.

他有一些威權傾向，而且好幾年沒有在記者會上回答過媒體提問了。

And we had to have an extensive negotiation because after that, the back and forth in the Oval, there was going to be a formal press conference, and

我們必須進行 extensive negotiation，因為在那之後，橢圓形辦公室的來回溝通，將有一場正式記者會，而且

it's hard to have a formal press conference if one of the two people in the press conference won't answer questions.

如果記者會上的兩個人其中一個不回答問題，要舉辦一場正式記者會就很難。

So we finally got the NDN delegation to agree that Prime Minister Modi would take a question from an American reporter.

所以我們終於讓 NDN 代表團同意，莫迪總理會回答一位美國記者的提問。

But that took weeks of negotiating and was, as I mentioned, the first time he'd done it in a very long time.

但這花了數週協商，而且正如我提到的，這是他很久以來第一次這麼做。

And then I also remember when we were in Bali with Xi Jinping, in the summit between President Biden and President Xi, a reporter tried to shout.

然後我還記得，當我們在峇裡島與習近平會面時，在拜登總統和習近平總統的峰會上，有記者試圖喊話。

That was one where each side just said their 30 seconds.

But at the end of it, a reporter tried to shout a, quote, question about human rights, and

但在結束時，有記者試圖喊出一個關於人權的「問題」，

actually got physically pulled back by a Chinese security person or a delegation member.

結果被中國的維安人員或代表團成員實際拉了回去。

So the Chinese were just ready for the US Press to jump in, and

所以中國方面已經準備好要讓美國媒體介入，

And there was reporting about that in the days that followed.

接下來幾天也有關於這件事的報導。

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這會是烏克蘭的轉捩點嗎？｜長遠佈局 (Is This Ukraine’s Turning Point? | The Long Game)

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