Name: 經濟學家來解答「大恐慌」的疑問！| Tech Support | WIRED Japan (経済学者だけど「大恐慌」について質問ある？| Tech Support | WIRED Japan)
Uploaded: 2025-11-21T18:10:50.000Z
Duration: 28 min 45 s

I'm an economics professor at Washington State University, and I'm here to answer your questions from the Internet.

我是華盛頓州立大學的經濟學教授，今天來為大家解答網路上的問題。

Caterpillar 330 asks, was the Great Depression really as bad as it's commonly portrayed to be?

Caterpillar 330 問，大蕭條真的有大家說的那麼糟嗎？

In the Great Recession of 2009, we maxed out at 10%.

在 2009 年的金融海嘯，我們最高也只到 10%。

Other places across the planet where we see this somewhere, say Greece in 2012 also hit 25%.

其他地方像是 2012 年的希臘，失業率也曾達到 25%。

It spurred us to create the first federal welfare systems.

這促使我們創立了第一個聯邦福利系統。

This is where we got Social Security, unemployment insurance, federal minimum wage, housing subsidies, all throughout the 30s.

這就是我們在 30 年代建立的社會安全、失業保險、聯邦最低工資、住房補貼等。

Trying to address the suffering that we saw then, Bright Sherbet asks, explain it like I'm five.

為了處理當時看到的苦難，Bright Sherbet 問，請用五歲小孩聽得懂的方式解釋。

What caused the Great Depression between 1929 and 1933?

1929 年到 1933 年間的大蕭條是怎麼發生的？

In the late 1920s, the United States financial markets were experiencing a speculative boom.

在 1920 年代末期，美國金融市場正經歷投機熱潮。

Now, the real economy was growing, and there were real profits to be shared on Wall Street.

實際上，實體經濟正在成長，華爾街也有實質的利潤可以分享。

But they started investing heavily on margins.

Now, what this means is that they would take out huge loans and then buy stocks with those loans.

這代表他們會借一大筆錢，然後用這些錢去買股票。

And then they would set up a different company to buy stocks in that company again on huge loans.

然後他們會成立另一家公司，再用一大筆錢去買這家公司的股票。

That meant an initial investment of, say, $100 could turn into $1,000 worth of stock.

這表示一開始投資 100 元，可以變成價值 1,000 元的股票。

So any rise in the stock would be a huge boom.

所以任何股價上漲都會是個大好消息。

But any speculative boom is eventually going to end.

但任何投機性的繁榮最終都會結束。

The economy hit a run of the mill recession in the summer of 1929.

1929 年夏天，經濟出現了一般的衰退。

The slowdown in economic activity led the market to peak on September 3rd.

經濟活動的放緩導致市場在 9 月 3 日達到頂峰。

But because so many of these stocks were not held outright but by loan, and

但因為這些股票有這麼多並非全額持有，而是透過貸款，

any fall in the price meant a cascading chain of everyone calling in their loans, which meant by October, we experienced a huge crash.

任何股價下跌都意味著大家爭相追繳貸款，這導致了十月時我們經歷了一場大崩盤。

Here's a picture of Wall street on the corner of Wall street and Broad showing the crowds all worried about their falling fortunes.

這張照片是華爾街和百老匯街口的景象，人群憂心忡忡地看著他們不斷下跌的財富。

Now, despite what everyone thinks, the stock market is not the economy.

現在，儘管大家普遍認為，股市並不能完全代表整體經濟。

Only 1 to 2% of Americans at the time held any stock.

當時只有百分之一到百分之二的美國人持有股票。

This event could have primarily just affected folks in New York and other financial markets.

這場事件本來可能主要隻影響紐約和其他金融市場的民眾。

How did it start affecting the rest of the economy?

那它是如何開始影響到其他經濟層面的呢？

A falling stock market means there's less wealth in the economy.

股市下跌意味著經濟中的財富減少了。

財富減少就代表消費也減少了。

Things start cascading into the real world once we start seeing massive bank failures.

當我們開始看到大規模的銀行倒閉時，事情就會開始連鎖影響到現實世界。

You see if a bank loses a lot of their stock, they're not going to be able to honor folks who put their deposits in.

你看，如果銀行損失了很多股票，他們就無法兌現那些存錢進來的民眾。

You come along, you put your money in the bank, they take it and then they lend it out to other people.

你來，把錢存進銀行，銀行就拿去借給別人。

But if those loans aren't being paid back, then the bank can't pay their depositors back.

但如果那些貸款沒有還回來，銀行就無法還給存款戶。

Which means you as a depositor are only going to get there if you're first.

這意味著，身為存款戶的你，只有排在前面才拿得到。

You got to be the number one person in that line.

你得成為那條隊伍裡的第一名。

If you're too far back, the banks ran out of cash and they're not going to be able to pay you back.

如果你排太後面，銀行就沒錢了，也無法還給你。

The bank doesn't have any loans available because the people who owe them money are now going bankrupt.

If not just one or two banks here and there, it's 10,000 banks that are collapsing across these years.

One of the reasons is because all these banks are forced to be really small.

So if you get a modest shock, they don't have the resources to insure themselves or to draw on other regions.

Surprisingly, just north of the border, Canada only had 10 banks served the entire country and they didn't experience runs.

銀行現在沒有任何貸款可以發放，因為欠錢的人現在都破產了。

This was unique to the United States and our fractured banking system.

而且不是一兩家銀行，而是這幾年來有上萬家銀行倒塌。

By 1932, the unemployment rate had reached 25%.

其中一個原因是，所有這些銀行都被迫規模非常小。

That meant one out of every four people can't find work.

所以如果遇到一點點衝擊，牠們就沒有資源來自我保險或向其他地區求援。

Men would line the streets advertising themselves for work.

Relief efforts set up soup kitchens to serve the unemployed.

救濟單位設立了施粥所，為失業人口提供餐點。

Economists still today debate on what are the ultimate causes of the Great Depression.

經濟學家至今仍在爭論大蕭條的根本原因是什麼。

But these are the primary events that got us along the way.

但這些是引導我們走到這一步的主要事件。

The namesdrjane asks when does a Great Depression start?

namesdrjane 問，大蕭條是何時開始的？

A great Depression is going to involve a lot of economic collapse, not just production, but

大蕭條會涉及大規模的經濟崩潰，不只是生產，

we'll have high unemployment all across the board.

我們會看到全面性的高失業率。

We're going to see a slowdown in economic activity.

And the period between 1929 and 1933 was the worst economic decline in United States history.

而 1929 年到 1933 年這段期間，是美國史上最嚴重的經濟衰退。

That's the National Bureau of Economic Research.

They're actually not part of the government.

They're a non profit research group based in Massachusetts.

他們是總部位於麻薩諸塞州的非營利研究機構。

And after some time for research purposes, the committee gets together and they decide what month and year a contraction starts.

經過一段時間的研究後，委員會會聚集起來，決定經濟衰退開始的月份和年份。

And then when does the economy start growing again?

那經濟又什麼時候開始復甦呢？

A Reddit user asks, why do Americans call the 1930s depression?

有位 Reddit 使用者問，為什麼美國人稱 1930 年代為大蕭條？

Actually, the term depression goes all the way back to James Monroe this is the term that they would use for any economic downturn was depression.

事實上，「depression」這個詞最早可以追溯到詹姆斯·門羅，當時人們會用這個詞來形容任何經濟低迷。

And they actually called the episode in the early twenties a Great Depression.

他們其實稱二十世紀初的這段時期為「大蕭條」。

It started having capital letters as the Great Depression.

後來「大蕭條」就開始有大寫字母了。

By about the mid-30s, we have Lionel Robbins, an economist, who wrote a book called the Great Depression.

大約到了三十年代中期，我們有經濟學家萊昂內爾·羅賓斯，他寫了一本關於「大蕭條」的書。

In the subsequent years, we capitalized it, called it the Great Depression.

在接下來的幾年裡，我們將它大寫，稱之為「大蕭條」。

Zobetops asks, what effect did the Smoot Hawley act have on the Great Depression?

Zobetops 問，Smoot Hawley 法案對大蕭條有什麼影響？

The Smoot Hawley act was a large increase in tariffs.

Smoot Hawley 法案大幅提高了關稅。

One of the hypothesized reason for the Great Depression at the time was not enough economic activity at home and a greater need for protection from abroad.

當時對大蕭條的其中一個假設原因，是國內經濟活動不足，以及對國外保護的需求增加。

The idea was, if you increase the tariffs here, it'll protect our businesses and they'll be able to succeed more and that'll get us out of the Depression.

想法是，如果你在這裡提高關稅，就能保護我們的企業，讓它們能更成功，這樣就能幫助我們走出經濟大蕭條。

Unfortunately, economists have long known and argued and warned at the time that trade is one of the ultimate secrets for long run economic growth.

不幸的是，經濟學家們早就知道，並一直在爭論和警告，貿易是長期經濟成長的最終祕訣之一。

It allows more economic activity, more diversity and more options across the world.

它讓全球有更多的經濟活動、更多元化和更多選擇。

那麼，這產生了多大的影響呢？

It was signed into law by President Hoover in 1930, just as we were getting started on the Depression.

這項法案在1930年由胡佛總統簽署成為法律，就在我們開始面臨經濟大蕭條的時候。

Now the effect on the American economy was modest, largely because the US economy was one of the biggest on the globe and the role of international trade was relatively small.

現在，它對美國經濟的影響不大，主要是因為美國經濟是全球最大的經濟體之一，而國際貿易的角色相對較小。

Economists have estimated it declined our economy by maybe a couple of percentage points.

經濟學家估計，它可能讓我們的經濟萎縮了幾個百分點。

But the effect on Smoot Hawley was bigger.

但 Smoot Hawley 法案的影響更大。

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經濟學家來解答「大恐慌」的疑問！| Tech Support | WIRED Japan (経済学者だけど「大恐慌」について質問ある？| Tech Support | WIRED Japan)

massive

depression

debate

crisis