Name: 為什麼股市還沒有崩潰--銀行不想讓你知道的事 (Why The Stock Market Hasn't Crashed Yet - What Banks Don't Want You To Know)
Uploaded: 2025-09-25T19:09:11.000Z
Duration: 13 min 14 s

Something strange is happening in the stock market, nothing like this has happened in the market for at least the last 100 years.

股票市場正在發生一些奇怪的事情，至少在過去 100 年裡，市場上從未發生過這樣的事情。

程度副詞

Every metric that you look at, the entire stock market is extremely overvalued.

無論從哪個指標來看，整個股市都被極度高估了。

轉承詞

Even Warren Buffett is sitting on a lot of cash instead of investing that money into the stock market and making real money.

就連沃倫-巴菲特（Warren Buffett）也坐擁大量現金，而不是將這些錢投入股市，賺取真金白銀。

Even if you check Warren Buffett's metric to measure the valuation of the market, it is insanely overvalued.

即使按照巴菲特衡量市場估值的標準，市場估值也高得離譜。

According to Warren Buffett, this is the best metric to measure the value of the market.

巴菲特認為，這是衡量市場價值的最佳指標。

You take the total market value of the stock market and you divided it by the size of the economy or GDP.

用股市總市值除以經濟規模或國內生產總值。

In this case, the total market cap is 66 trillion dollars.

在這種情況下，總市值為 66 萬億美元。

The GDP of the United States today is around 30 trillion dollars.

當今美國的國內生產總值約為 30 萬億美元。

So 66 trillion dollars divided by 30 will be 216 percent.

是以，66 萬億美元除以 30 就是 216%。

Any value that is above 100 percent indicates that the market is overvalued.

任何高於 100% 的數值都表明市場估值過高。

If it's lower than 100 percent, then the market is undervalued.

如果低於 100%，則說明市場價值被低估了。

So you tell me how overvalued the stock market is.

And that is why Warren Buffett is sitting on a lot of cash.

這就是巴菲特坐擁大量現金的原因。

In fact, at the peak of the dot-com bubble back in 1999, this indicator was 115 percent and the stock market has crashed by more than 60 percent, 150 percent in 1999 and 216 percent.

事實上，在 1999 年網絡保麗龍的頂峰時期，這一指標為 115%，而股市已經崩潰了 60%以上，1999 年為 150%，1999 年為 216%。

So that leads us to ask the most important question, why the stock market hasn't crashed yet?

是以，我們要問一個最重要的問題：為什麼股市還沒有崩潰？

If you pull out the top 10 largest companies in the United States or the top 10 companies of the S&P 500 and you look at their average P.E. ratio, it equals to 66.

如果把美國最大的前 10 家公司或標準普爾 500 指數的前 10 家公司拉出來，看看它們的平均市盈率，等於 66。

Somebody can make the argument that the P.E. ratios of technology companies tend to be higher than normal companies, but that higher ratio means 25, best case scenario 30 and not 66, which is another indication that investors are overpaying for every dollar that these companies are earning today.

有人會說，科技公司的市盈率往往高於普通公司，但更高的市盈率意味著 25%，最好的情況是 30%，而不是 66%。

In the beginning, when investors are excited and they start to invest in the stock market and the companies, the stock market can grow.

一開始，當投資者興奮地開始投資股市和公司時，股市就會增長。

At a certain point, the market reaches a certain peak.

在某一點上，市場會達到某個頂峰。

Smart investors who realize that the market is overvalued, they start massively selling off their stocks.

聰明的投資者一旦意識到市場估值過高，就會開始大量拋售手中的股票。

That creates panic within the entire economy and it leads to the overall crash of the market.

這在整個經濟中造成恐慌，導致市場全面崩潰。

And then at the bottom, people with a lot of money realize that the market is undervalued, maybe it's time to jump in and start buying those stocks.

然後到了底部，擁有大量資金的人意識到市場價值被低估了，也許是時候跳進去開始購買這些股票了。

And we go through the exact same cycle over and over and over.

我們一遍又一遍地重複著同樣的循環。

The real question is, if we are at the peak right now, then smart investors who understand valuations, who understand how the market works, supposed to sell their stocks now, right?

真正的問題是，如果我們現在正處於頂峰，那麼瞭解估值、瞭解市場運作的聰明投資者現在就應該賣出股票，對嗎？

There could be multiple reasons but I think this is the most accurate explanation for that.

原因可能有多種，但我認為這是最準確的解釋。

The US government is the largest spender in the US economy.

美國政府是美國經濟中最大的開支者。

In fact, the government of any country is the largest spender of that economy.

事實上，任何國家的政府都是該國經濟的最大開支者。

The US government collects around 5 trillion dollars in taxes.

美國政府的稅收約為 5 萬億美元。

That money is being spent on people through different government programs.

這些錢正通過不同的政府項目用在人們身上。

The US government pays social security, medicare, and it funds the world's most powerful military at a trillion dollars.

美國政府支付社會保險和醫療保險，還為世界上最強大的軍隊提供了數萬億美元的資金。

The US government also has a lot of debt, so it has to pay interest to the investors for borrowing that money.

美國政府還揹負著大量債務，是以必須向投資者支付借款利息。

That money ends up in the hands of the average people and the investors who loan their money to the US government.

這些錢最終落到普通人和把錢借給美國政府的投資者手中。

And then people spend that money by buying things from these companies.

然後人們花這些錢從這些公司買東西。

So you will check your paycheck and you will get yourself a brand new iPhone, fill your car with gas, treat yourself at a restaurant, or buy yourself groceries.

是以，你會查看自己的工資單，然後給自己買一部全新的 iPhone、給汽車加油、去餐館犒勞自己或給自己買日用品。

So most of that money will end up in the hands of those large corporations who are providing those services, which is another reason why the stock market keeps growing exponentially over time.

是以，大部分資金最終都會落入提供這些服務的大公司手中，這也是股市隨著時間的推移不斷成倍增長的另一個原因。

Companies at the end of the day have to pay interest or have to pay dividends to the people who own these companies, and we call them investors.

公司最終必須向擁有這些公司的人支付利息或紅利，我們稱他們為投資者。

Investors are sitting on a lot of cash, they all take that money, and they have to either invest it back in these companies or they have to loan it to somebody so that money does not simply sit, but rather, it is going to earn and generate interest.

投資者坐擁大量現金，他們都會把這些錢拿出來，要麼投資回這些公司，要麼借給別人，這樣這些錢就不會被閒置，而是會賺取和產生利息。

But instead of spending 5 trillion dollars that it's supposed, the US government is overspending by 2 trillion dollars.

但美國政府非但沒有花掉它應該花掉的 5 萬億美元，反而超支了 2 萬億美元。

The only reason you would borrow money is either you are in trouble and you have to borrow money to get yourself out of that trouble so that you start making money and then pay off that debt, or you believe that by borrowing money, you are going to increase your productivity.

你借錢的唯一原因要麼是你陷入了困境，你必須借錢來擺脫困境，從而開始賺錢，然後償還債務；要麼是你相信，通過借錢，你可以提高生產率。

When you borrow money, you are borrowing money from your future, so you have to pay back that money sometime in the future, but if you increase your productivity today, paying back that money in the future is going to become a lot easier.

當你借錢時，你是在向你的未來借錢，所以你必須在未來的某個時候償還這筆錢，但如果你今天提高了生產率，那麼未來償還這筆錢就會變得容易得多。

So the real question that we have to ask ourselves isn't why the stock market hasn't crashed yet, but rather, why is the US government is overspending by 2 trillion dollars?

是以，我們要問自己的真正問題不是股市為什麼還沒有崩潰，而是美國政府為什麼要超支 2 萬億美元？

Why is it instead of spending 5 trillion dollars, it is spending 7 trillion dollars?

為什麼不是花費 5 萬億美元，而是花費 7 萬億美元？

The world is going through serious changes.

The world order that the United States has created is under threat.

美國建立的世界秩序正受到威脅。

Back in 1945, when the United States created the global world order, the United States was industrially, technologically, and financially superior compared to the rest of the world.

1945 年，當美國建立全球世界秩序時，美國在工業、技術和金融方面都優於世界其他國家。

So if you wanted the United States to protect you, you have to follow the US global world order.

是以，如果你想讓美國保護你，你就必須遵循美國的全球世界秩序。

If you wanted to be part of the global financial system that the United States has created, you have to follow the US global world order.

如果你想成為美國創建的全球金融體系的一部分，你就必須遵循美國的全球世界秩序。

If you want to buy all the fancy things that the United States is producing, you have to follow the world order of the United States.

如果你想購買美國生產的所有高檔商品，你就必須遵守美國的世界秩序。

There wasn't a single country that could stand up to the United States.

So the United States was at the top of the game since 1945.

是以，自1945年以來，美國一直處於遊戲的頂端。

Which is why now we are witnessing something different.

這就是為什麼我們現在看到了一些不同的東西。

Something that hasn't happened since 1945.

這是自 1945 年以來從未發生過的事情。

Because there are countries today across the globe that no longer want the US financial system, that have built militaries that can rival the United States and are building financial systems that can compete with the United States.

因為如今全球有一些國家不再需要美國的金融體系，它們已經建立了可以與美國匹敵的軍隊，並正在建立可以與美國競爭的金融體系。

China is one of the major economies in the world and is almost as big as the United States.

中國是世界主要經濟體之一，幾乎與美國一樣大。

It has built a very powerful military and alongside other nations, for example, it is building its own financial system.

例如，它建立了一支非常強大的軍隊，並與其他國家一起建立了自己的金融體系。

Other nations are also standing up and building their own financial systems and are competing with the United States.

其他國家也在站起來建立自己的金融體系，並與美國展開競爭。

So the current world order or the new world order might not be putting US interests first.

是以，當前的世界秩序或新的世界秩序可能不會把美國的利益放在首位。

Which is why the United States, instead of simply spending 5 trillion dollars, it is borrowing money from its future to ensure that the new world order is either going to only favor the United States or will favor the United States the most.

這就是為什麼美國不是簡單地花費5萬億美元，而是從自己的未來借錢，以確保新的世界秩序要麼只有利於美國，要麼最有利於美國。

Because nobody knows how the world order is going to look like.

因為沒有人知道世界秩序會變成什麼樣子。

There is a huge conflict in Europe going on.

歐洲正在發生一場巨大的衝突。

European countries are looking for new allies.

China is catching up the United States militarily, technologically, and financially.

中國正在軍事、技術和財政上追趕美國。

So the United States took a strategic decision.

是以，美國做出了一項戰略決策。

We are going to borrow as much money as possible to ensure that we stay at the top until we find out how the new world order is going to look like.

我們將盡可能多地借錢，以確保我們在找到新世界秩序的雛形之前，一直保持領先地位。

In fact, if you look at the projections of how the US government will be spending money over the next 10 to 15 years, you will see that it already plans to overspend and run a huge deficit over the next 10 to 15 years.

事實上，如果你看一下美國政府未來 10 到 15 年的支出預測，就會發現美國政府已經計劃在未來 10 到 15 年超支並出現鉅額赤字。

So the 2 trillion dollar deficit is just the beginning and that will continue to ensure that the new world order that will be created within the next 5 to 10 years will favor the United States.

是以，2 萬億美元的赤字只是一個開始，這將繼續確保在未來 5 到 10 年內建立的新世界秩序將有利於美國。

But borrowing money from the future or borrowing money at that scale is going to create massive devaluation.

但從未來借錢或以這種規模借錢會造成大規模貶值。

The reason that one thing is more valuable than the other thing is because of supply and demand.

一種東西之所以比另一種東西更有價值，是因為供求關係。

The reason that gold is more valuable than stones is because if you walk outside your house, it's filled with stones, so you can pick them up.

黃金比石頭更值錢的原因是，如果你走出家門，滿屋子都是石頭，所以你可以撿起來。

But if you want to find gold, then you have to invest hundreds of millions of dollars, dig underground in specific places in the world and only you can find gold.

但是，如果你想找到黃金，那麼你必須投資數億美元，在世界上特定的地方挖掘地下，只有你才能找到黃金。

If it's rare, if the supply of gold is very limited, its value is rising.

如果它很稀有，如果黃金的供應量非常有限，它的價值就會上升。

The same terminology applies to currencies.

Governments have the ability to manipulate the value of the currency by increasing its supply or by decreasing its supply.

政府有能力通過增加或減少貨幣供應量來操縱貨幣價值。

Because there is always demand on the other side, there is always demand for the US dollar.

因為另一方總是有需求，對美元總是有需求。

You have to pay your taxes, and you can only pay your taxes in US dollars, which is why there is always demand for the US dollar.

你必須交稅，而你只能用美元交稅，這就是為什麼美元總是有需求。

But if the US government is going to massively increase the supply of the dollars today by massively borrowing money from its future and filling the government with so much dollars, it is going to make the value of the dollar go down.

但是，如果美國政府今天要大量增加美元的供應量，從未來大量借錢，讓政府充滿這麼多美元，就會使美元貶值。

Imagine within the entire economy, there is simply just 10 dollars.

試想一下，在整個經濟體中，僅僅只有 10 美元。

If we double the number of dollars in the economy, suddenly the dollars will become less valuable.

如果我們把經濟中的美元數量增加一倍，美元的價值就會突然降低。

So the reason that the stock market is growing tremendously despite the fact that it's extremely overvalued is because investors are betting on dollars devaluation.

是以，儘管股市被極度高估，但仍在大幅增長的原因在於投資者押注美元貶值。

Current stock earnings does not justify current stock prices.

當前的股票收益並不能證明當前的股票價格是合理的。

But because investors are betting on devaluation of the dollar, companies over the next 5-10 years will have to raise their prices as the dollar continues to lose its value and that's when the earnings will justify the current stock prices.

但是，由於投資者押注美元貶值，在未來 5-10 年內，隨著美元不斷貶值，公司將不得不提高價格，屆時盈利將證明目前的股票價格是合理的。

There are two ways to increase your earnings, either you are going to become more productive, you will produce more, you will become more efficient, or you are simply going to raise your prices.

有兩種方法可以增加收入：要麼提高生產力，生產更多產品，提高效率；要麼提高價格。

By just simply raising your prices, it means inflation, it's very difficult to do that.

如果只是簡單地提高價格，就意味著通貨膨脹，這很難做到。

The only way you can do that is when there is massive devaluation of the currency and that's what investors seem to be betting on.

要做到這一點，唯一的辦法就是貨幣大幅貶值，而這似乎正是投資者的賭注。

But that is going to create one of the biggest wealth inequalities in history.

但這將造成歷史上最大的財富不平等。

Because if you look at the entire stock market, you will find out that it is mostly owned by the top 10 percent.

因為如果你觀察一下整個股票市場，就會發現它主要由前 10% 的人所擁有。

The bottom 90 percent of Americans almost own no stocks whatsoever.

底層 90% 的美國人幾乎沒有任何股票。

So as the value of the dollar goes down, the stock market goes up, your wages don't grow as much as the stock market, so the vast majority of Americans will continue getting poorer while the top 10 percent of Americans will continue getting wealthier.

是以，隨著美元貶值，股市上漲，你的工資不會像股市那樣增長，所以絕大多數美國人將繼續變得更窮，而最富有的 10%的美國人將繼續變得更富有。

They won't suffer as a result of this massive devaluation.

他們不會因為這次大規模貶值而遭受損失。

And the biggest problem is that the bottom 90 percent of Americans will have to spend their money on these corporations.

而最大的問題是，底層 90% 的美國人將不得不把錢花在這些公司身上。

You have to get yourself a car, fill it with gas, go to restaurants, buy yourself groceries and so on and so forth.

你得給自己買輛車，加滿油，去餐館吃飯，給自己買日用品，諸如此類。

The rich people who are sitting on a lot of cash will take that money and will continue buying stocks.

坐擁大量現金的富人會拿著這些錢繼續購買股票。